Global Warming over the Pacific Northwest Separating Fact

Global Warming over the Pacific Northwest: Separating Fact from Hype Cliff Mass, University of Washington

There is a great deal of contradictory information about global warming, including its influence on the Northwest

Some environment groups have proposed that global warming has already caused our precipitation to become more extreme

Seattle’s Mayor and others suggested our snowpack had declined by 50%

And media headlines have become more and more scary

In contrast, others hold that the lack of warming of the planet over the past decade indicates that global warming is no real threat. . or that the earth is cooling ill

Some ask: How can scientists predict climate when they can’t get the next week’s weather forecast right?

…while thousands of scientists from around the world have written a series of reports indicating the imminent threat of global warming due to mankind’s influence

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Reports

The Global Warming Debate Has Divided Into Tribal Warfare

What is the truth? What is biased and wrong? What do we know for sure? What are the uncertainties? What will happen here? What needs to be done?

The Problem: greenhouse gases are increasing

Greenhouse Gases Warm the Earth • • • Carbon Dioxide Water Vapor Methane Nitrous Oxide … and others

We understand the greenhouse effect Graphic courtesy of the National Park Service

Svante Arrhenius, 1896

The Atmosphere is Like a Blanket More Blankets Result in More Warming—The Question is: How Much?

We Can Predict the Future Effects of More Greenhouse Gases Using Climate Models • Sophisticated computer simulations based on the physics of the atmosphere. • Nearly identical to weather prediction models, which are tested every day, but atmospheric gases can vary. • These models are very good, but are not perfect

Climate Model Output for 2100

Global Warming is NOT Uniform • Arctic warms up the most for a number of reasons, including the melting of sea ice. • Continents warm up more than oceans. • Eastern oceans up less than western oceans. • In general, the drier areas (e. g. , the SW) will get drier and wet areas (e. g. , British Columbia) will get wetter.

Uncertainty: Get Used to It! • Considerable uncertainty regarding global temperature changes (roughly 1. 5 to 4 C) • Even more uncertainty for local changes • Uncertainty has not lessened over the past decades of research.

Global Warming in Northwest • It appears that there has been little humancaused warming in most of the Northwest so far. • This makes a lot of sense--our weather has controlled by the Pacific and the eastern Pacific is one of the last places that will warm significantly. • Global warming will be weaker and delayed here…but it will happen in force by the end of the century.

Change in Winter Surface Air Temperature (°C) for 1979 -2008 -1. 4 -1. 2 -1. 0 -0. 8 -0. 6 -0. 4 -0. 2 0. 0 +0. 2 +0. 4 Air Temperature Trend (1979 -2005) +0. 6 +0. 8 +1. 0 +1. 2 +1. 4

Little trend in Cascade snowpack over the last 30 years

Globally warming will become highly significant in our region by the end of the century Let’s look at some projections using a high-resolution forecast model driven by global climate simulations

Change in Winter Surface Air Temperatures (F)

Change in Snowpack from 1990 to 2090 -40% 0% +40%

Don’t buy this after 2050!

But Good News for Precipitation! Unlike some areas, we will still have plenty of precipitation, just more rain and less snow

Annual precipitation change over the next century

Big Questions

Can We Predict Climate When We Can’t Forecast Next Week’s Weather?

In weather prediction we forecast the exact state of the atmosphere at some time in the future • Tomorrow’s high in Spokane will be 67 F • It will rain tomorrow afternoon after 3 PM

In Climate Prediction We DON’T Do This. • We predict average quantities over extended periods. • Example: the mean winter temperatures will be 3 F higher over the Pacific Northwest. • MUCH easier to do. • Furthermore, the average conditions are closely controlled by the amount of radiation reaching and leaving the planet--and we can figure that out fairly well—IF WE KNOW THE ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITON.

Should we expect stronger storms and more floods under global warming in the NW?

We don’t know.

• The number of windstorms and floods have increased during the past decade or so in Washington, but DECREASED in Oregon and northern CA. • Storms follow the jet stream --a current of strong winds in the upper atmosphere--and most climate models predict the jet stream will move northward. • It is possible that storms here might move north of us under global warming.

Extreme Craziness • Greenhouse warming “advocacy” groups and some activist scientists have been making unfounded claims that individual extreme weather events are undoubtedly the effects of global warming. • The media highlight such reports as if they were true. • Many are not.

Texas Temperatures No Real Trend

Are We Making Any Real Progress in Dealing with Global Warming?

The Answer is Clearly No

The U. S. is reducing carbon emissions, while China and others take off

But we are implicated in China’s emissions We are now shipping large amounts of coal to China Plan for new terminals and increase to 100 s of millions of tons per year

Where does the stuff inside come from?

So what do we do? • More research to clarify the threat. • Adaptation and Resilience will be key. Begin preparation now by enhancing infrastructure and improving weather forecasting. • Invest in research on new energy technologies that greatly reduce carbon emissions, but at equal or less cost.

What do we do now? • Population control. The increasing number of humans and the rising global middle class is the real driver of the problem. • Carbon Taxes (lessening other taxes to balance)

Bottom Line • Global warming is very serious business. • Global warming will be delayed here, but will have significant impacts in the NW. • Don’t believe all the hype and false information being provided by the media and advocacy groups on BOTH sides.

The End

Some Media (e. g. , Fox News, Wall Street Journal) Suggest that Human -Induced Global Warming is Exaggerated or a Myth

Reality

Case Study: 2011 Texas Heat Wave

The Heat Wave Was Localized

The 2011 Heat Wave Was Associated with a Big Ridge over the U. S.

2011 Texas Heat Wave • Also the land surface was anomalously dry, which leads to higher temperatures. • The dry conditions were associated with La Nina. • There is absolutely no reason to expect that the La Nina or the high-amplitude, persistent ridge over the central U. S. is associated with global warming. • Thus, this event was mainly the result of natural variability, with a small enhancement perhaps by global warming

The Japanese Tsunami Analog • The tsunami had nothing to do with climate change. A natural feature. • But global warming, through sea level rise, made it a bit worse.

Two Sides • Generally broken down by political affiliation (Democrat versus Republican) • Environmental advocacy groups versus business/free market advocacy groups. • Lots of name calling: “warmists” and “alarmists” versus “deniers” and “skeptics” • I learned about this the hard way.

Remember: Most of the Impacts of Anthropogenic Global Warming Here in the NW and Around the World is in the FUTURE and evidence for impacts on extreme weather is very tentative.

Al Gore and Inconvenient Truth: Did this lead to politicization?

PDO

Number of Max Temp Records for Long-Term Stations