Global Warming and Science So far the balanced story of basic science is not getting through to the public There is at least one alternate hypothesis and a new theory Fran Manns, Artesian Geological Research, Toronto Artesian Geological Research 1
What is Global Warming? § Throughout time the Earth’s climate has varied § Since the base of the Pleistocene (1. 8 M ya) there have been at least 30 glacial - interglacial cycles of 40, 000 years to 100, 000 years duration with interglacial periods warmer than now between them § Sea level has risen 125 metres in the past 20, 000 years. That 6 mm a year (arithmetic average). § § ICPP recently cited 2 -3 mm a year – one might say it’s slowing down. The world’s coastal tribes have flood myths because they migrated around the world and lived upon the continental shelves § Between glacial ages the climate varies due to external and internal influences – some result in cooling. Others allow the Earth to warm § There are short-term cycles – e. g. ‘El Niño’, among others: for example - the 10 to 12 year long solar energy cycles, and cycles that relate to oscillation of Atlantic and Pacific ocean masses, and the Milankovich orbital cycle. Artesian Geological Research 2
Pennekamp Park – Key Largo SCOOP - “Reefs keep pace with 125 metre sea level rise” Artesian Geological Research 3
Athabasca Glacier has been receding since the Little Ice Age Artesian Geological Research 4
Moraine From the Little Ice Age Artesian Geological Research 5
Solar System Perspective Artesian Geological Research 6
What If? § If The atmosphere did not absorb incoming heat, we would roast all day and freeze-dry at night and end up like sun-dried tomatoes § Mercury - + 427 to – 172 ºC § Mars - temperate zone soil + 27 to – 80 ºC § Moon - + 107 to - 153 ºC Artesian Geological Research 7
What is the Greenhouse Effect? § Certain gasses in the atmosphere alleged to absorb heat energy and reduce the amount that escapes into space § This ‘trapping’ of heat from our only source of warmth – the Sun – by the atmosphere is known as the ‘Greenhouse Effect’ § This gives us a global average temperature of +15°C rather than -18°C if we had no Greenhouse Effect § An hypothesis unsupported by experiment – could be cloud cover alone…the jury is out Artesian Geological Research 8
Important Facts § Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas - ~ 60 - 98% of the greenhouse effect is due to water vapour in the atmosphere (jury still out) § CO 2 and other minor gasses account for the remainder Artesian Geological Research 9
Contribution to the Greenhouse Effect (including water vapour) http: //www. geocraft. com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data. html Artesian Geological Research 10
Is Global Warming Happening? § Lets examine some very wiggly curves § Death Valley California (not much urban growth here) - Artesian Geological Research 11
Berkeley California Artesian Geological Research 12
No global warming here Artesian Geological Research 13
Blaine Washington Artesian Geological Research 14
New York NY Artesian Geological Research 15
Albany NY Artesian Geological Research 16
Michael Crichton - “State of Fear”, December 2004, Harper Collins § New York city has a fever but why not Albany? Artesian Geological Research 17
Harrisburg Pa – Civil War gap Artesian Geological Research 18
Chicago Illinois Artesian Geological Research 19
Buffalo NY Artesian Geological Research 20
Key West Florida Artesian Geological Research 21
Global Warming § Typically the majority of weather stations yield corrupt time series data § Those weather stations are located where people are living. Thus, it is far from a random sample of the surface of the world, rather a measure of increasing human density § Death Valley, Key West, , and Blaine are far (remote) from urban centres and are likely more reliable Who knows about Berkeley? Albany vs. New York City? § Since 1979, temperatures have been measured from satellites. Not surprisingly, these measurements give a much smaller warming. Artesian Geological Research 22
Realistically § The planet is not warming in the dramatic manner the alarmists claim § There are many other sites that demonstrate cooling § I accept slow climate change but not the drama § EARTH’S CLIMATE IS ALWAYS CHANGING § I do not accept the popular ‘cause’ – CO 2 § Why are the graphs so wiggly? § Because climate is not weather Artesian Geological Research 23
Niagara Falls NY – 1911 The next Ice Age predicted… Artesian Geological Research 24
“Relax, the planet is fine…” National Post - Earth Day 07 The Wegman Report: Ad Hoc Committee on the Hockey Stick Global Climate Reconstruction, This report was authored by Edward J. Wegman, George Mason University, David W. Scott, Rice University, and Yasmin H. Said, The Johns Hopkins University Artesian Geological Research 25
Thompson, Lonnie G. et al. (2006) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, 10536 -10543 Fig. 6. Climate reconstructions over the last two centuries [SIC : millennia]. Medieval warm period missing – Little Ice Age ? ? ? Artesian Geological Research 26
Kamél, 2003 § “In the past couple of years, new and better analysis of the Antarctic ice data, giving a better time resolution, have shown that first temperature rises, and then carbon dioxide levels increase. It is the temperature increase which causes the increase in CO 2 and not the other way around. § The extra CO 2 could at most add a little extra warming to what is going on, but not even that is certain”. Artesian Geological Research 27
CO 2 increase in the atmosphere is a trailing phenomenon Throughout the greatest temperature transitions experienced by the planet over the past 420, 000 years, atmospheric CO 2 concentration has been proven to have been a follower, and not a leader, of climate change, rising from one to five thousand years after major increases in air temperature, and falling in similar manner throughout the course of the past four glacial/interglacial cycles (Mudelsee, M. , 2001). Artesian Geological Research 28
CO 2 has inverse solubility in liquid § Solubility of solids increases directly with temperature of the solvent § sugar dissolves more rapidly in hot water than cold § Carbon dioxide dissolves quickly in cold water and evolves rapidly out of warm water § Don’t shake your Doctor Pepper! Artesian Geological Research 29
Observations § Warming precedes CO 2 increase - likely due to warming of the oceans § CO 2 has inverse solubility in liquid (warm your Guinness to see this effect) § CO 2 has a geometrically wasting greenhouse gas effect – more CO 2– less effectiveness Artesian Geological Research 30
And… § You might say, and ‘alarmists’ say every day, that the new anthropogenic CO 2 from the industrial revolution is tipping the climate over into uncontrollable heating… Artesian Geological Research 31
Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas § The most variable component of the atmosphere is water in its various phases such as vapour, cloud droplets, and ice crystals. Water vapour is the strongest greenhouse gas. For these reasons and because the transition between the various phases absorb and release so much energy, water vapour is central to the climate and its variability and change. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis Section 1. 1. 2 The Climate System Artesian Geological Research 32
Absorption wavelength CO 2 vs. H 2 O Three CO 2 absorption wavelengths at 1. 4, 1. 9, and 2. 4 μm cannot compete with nine H 2 O bands Artesian Geological Research 33
Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007: 180 Years of Atmospheric CO 2 Measurements by Chemical Means, Energy and Environment, Vol. 8 No. 2 March. Artesian Geological Research 34
Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007: 180 Years of Atmospheric CO 2 Measurements by Chemical Means, Energy and Environment, Vol. 8 No. 2 March. Artesian Geological Research 35
Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007: 180 Years of Atmospheric CO 2 Measurements by Chemical Means, Energy and Environment, Vol. 8 No. 2 March. Artesian Geological Research 36
Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007: 180 Years of Atmospheric CO 2 Measurements by Chemical Means, Energy and Environment, Vol. 8 No. 2 March. Artesian Geological Research 37
CO 2 data used by the UN ICPP has fatal flaws § Beck shows several instances when CO 2 was higher than today at Mauna Loa § Most recently (1942) CO 2 exceeded 400 ppm § Cynics would say the Beck (2007)data are regionalized variables and realists might say “Why use Mauna Loa, an active volcano that emits CO 2? ” Artesian Geological Research 38
UN ICPP 1740 – 2000 Artesian Geological Research 39
ICPP CO 2 data is F(Flawed)UBAR Artesian Geological Research 40
Downward forcing - all greenhouse gasses vs. increasing CO 2 content - Willis Eschenbach Artesian Geological Research 41
CO 2 Feedback effect § Has a geometrically wasting property (Kamél, 2003) § Analogous to Venetian blinds and light § Adding a second and third set of Venetian blinds to the same window becomes decreasingly effective in blocking outgoing light § More CO 2– less additional greenhouse effect § Increase in CO 2 has less effect because § Carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has exactly one important spectral line in the infrared part of the spectrum. This line is clearly saturated. § If you increase the number of CO 2 molecules in the atmosphere, not much will happen Artesian Geological Research 42
Well then what is the likely cause ? Artesian Geological Research 43
Look up! - recognise the variation is in the fourth significant digit Artesian Geological Research 44
CO 2 vs. Friis-Christensen and Lassen (Science, 1991) "Dr. Tim Patterson after Friis-Christensen & Lassen, 1991" Artesian Geological Research 45
CO 2 and Temperature Anomaly § Temperature rise preceded CO 2 from 1890 to 1950 § CO 2 does not correlate with temperature anomaly from 1940 to 1970 § Temperature rise does correlate with solar activity § CO 2 rise cannot be a cause of warming Artesian Geological Research 46
Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1991) Science Magazine § 95% correlation between sunspot peak frequency and the temperature anomaly § Sunspot curve, moreover, leads the temperature curve § But, correlation is not causation § What is the cause? Artesian Geological Research 47
The subtle part… § It is not only the number of sunspots… § It is not only the heat flux… § It is not only the peak frequency… Artesian Geological Research 48
Danish National Space Centre § “It is already well-established that when cosmic rays, which are high-speed atomic particles originating in exploded stars far away in the Milky Way, penetrate the Earth’s atmosphere, they produce substantial amounts of ions and release free electrons. § …results from the Danish experiment show that the released electrons play a significant role in promoting the formation of building blocks for cloud condensation nuclei, on which water vapor condenses to make clouds. Hence, a causal mechanism by which cosmic rays can facilitate the production of clouds in Earth’s atmosphere has been experimentally identified for the first time. ” § http: //www. spacecenter. dk/publications/press-releases/getting-closer-to-the -cosmic-connection-to-climate Artesian Geological Research 49
Danish Space Centre Theory § ‘Active’ sun → enhanced magnetic and thermal flux = solar wind → geomagnetic shield response → less low-level clouds → less albedo (less heat reflected) → warmer climate § Less active sun → reduced magnetic and thermal flux = reduced solar wind → geomagnetic shield drops → galactic cosmic ray flux → more low-level clouds → More snow → more albedo (more heat reflected) → colder climate § That's how the bulk of climate change works § Coupled with sunspot peak frequency there are cycles of global warming and cooling like waves in the ocean § When the waves are closely spaced, the planet warms Artesian Geological Research 50
Potentially large sources of cosmic radiation - our star is one pixel Betelgeuse is 427 light years away; Antares 600 light years away. Artesian Geological Research 51
We are at the end of the 23 rd Cycle since sunspots were first recorded Artesian Geological Research 52
Why, realistically, conspiracy theories aside… § Is CO 2 the target? § CO 2 hypothesis has precedence (1897)? § Media propagation? – ‘Bottom Line’ § Repetition of stale ‘science’ § Bandwagon ‘science’? - DDT and Malaria! § Consensus ‘science’? - Copernicus and Galileo! § Publish or perish? - Mann and the Hockey Stick § Research grants? – Tied to outcome § All of the above? Artesian Geological Research 53
Original Sin Gracious no! Humans can only claim responsibility, if that's the word, for about 3. 4% of carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere annually, the rest of it is all natural (IPCC, Woods Hole) §Anthropogenic is 0. 11% of the global CO 2 cycle §Better term is ‘Anthropocentric’ implying narcissism of the environmental lobby groups §Was that not the Galileo-Copernican dilemma? www. CO 2 Science. org Artesian Geological Research 54
My hypothesis is volcanic § Eruption of Krakatau, 1883 § There has not been much warming of the Gulf of Mexico in modern time Artesian Geological Research 55
Skepticism or Objectivity Artesian Geological Research 56
Moving to higher ground. . Here is An Inconvenient Truth "A scientific hypothesis that survives experimental testing becomes a scientific theory" Artesian Geological Research 57
Take this test! § http: //www. geocraft. com/WVFossils/Glob Warm. Test/start. html Artesian Geological Research 58
Albert Einstein said: " If you succeed in using the nuclearphysical findings for peaceful purposes, it will open the way to a new paradise". Francis T. Manns, Ph. D. , P. Geo. (Ontario) artesian 1@sympatico. ca 323 Blantyre Avenue Toronto Ontario M 1 N 2 S 6 Canada 416 -698 -6291 Artesian Geological Research 59
Key References Friis-Christensen, E. and K. Lassen, 1991: Length of the Solar Cycle - an indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate, Science, New Series, Vol. 254, No. 5032, Nov. 1, 1991, pp. 698 -700. Svensmark, Henrik, Jens Olaf P. Pedersen, Nigel D. Marsh, Martin B. Enghoff, and Ulrik I. Uggerhoj, 2006: Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions, Proceedings of the Royal Society (A), Proc. R Soc. A, doi: 10. 1098/rspa. 20061773. Published online. Artesian Geological Research 60
CO 2 Analyses and Methodology § Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007: 180 Years of Atmospheric CO 2 Gas Analyses by Chemical Methods, Energy and Environment, Vol. 18, No. 2 2007. § Jaworoski, Zbigniew, 2007: CO 2: the Greatest Scientific Scandal of Our Time, EIR Science, 16 March 2007. Artesian Geological Research 61
References Temperature Lars Kamél, 2003: Temperature measurements: Is climate research pseudo science? Swedish original text from June, English translation from Nov, 2003, a few updates made since. http: //www. astro. uu. se/~l/noworry. htm United States Historical Climatology Network dataset http: //www. ncdc. noaa. gov/oa/climate/research/ushcn. html Artesian Geological Research 62
References CO 2 as plant food Eamus, D. 1996: Responses of field grown trees to CO 2 enrichment. Commonwealth Forestry Review 75: 39 -47. Eklundh, L. and Olsson, L. 2003: Vegetation index trends for the African Sahel 1982 -1999. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. 1029/2002 GL 016772. Saxe, H. , Ellsworth, D. S. and Heath, J. 1998: Tree and forest functioning in an enriched CO 2 atmosphere. New Phytologist 139: 395 -436. Artesian Geological Research 63
References CO 2 Saturation Elachi, Charles, 1987: Introduction to the Physics and Techniques of Remote Sensing (John Wiley & Sons) Kamél, Lars, 2003: Why we don't have to worry about CO 2, Department of Astronomy and Space Physics, Uppsala, Sweden http: //www. astro. uu. se/~l/noworry. htm CO 2 Trailing effect Mudelsee, M. , 2001: The phase relations among atmospheric CO 2 content, temperature and global ice volume over the past 420 ka. Quaternary Science Reviews 20: 583 -589. Artesian Geological Research 64
Other Reading de. Freitas, C. R. , 2002: Are observed changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere really dangerous? , Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology, Vol. 50, No. 2 (June 2002), pp. 297 -327, School of Geology and Environmental Science, Auckland, New Zealand. Mc. Intyre, Steven and Mc. Kitrick, Ross, 2005: Hockey Sticks, principal components, and spurious significance, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L 03710, doi: 10. 1029/2004 GL 021750 Wegman, Edward J. , David W. Scott and Yasmin H. Said, 2006: Ad hoc committee report on the ‘Hockey stick’ global climate reconstruction, To The Chairman of the Committee on Energy and Commerce and the Chairman of the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, US House of Representatives. The IPCC Report Climate Change 2001: Third Assessment Report consists of four sub -reports: 1) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, 2) Climate Change 2001: Impacts , Adaptation and Vulnerabilities, 3) Climate Change 2001: Mitigation, and 4) Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. Artesian Geological Research 65
Acknowledgements § § § Jim Tilsley Les Manns Richard Bedell Artesian Geological Research 66
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