Global Nutrition and Humanitarian Issues Will Masters 8 November 2010
Global Nutrition and Humanitarian Issues: The agenda ahead • World food price spikes and trends – Another food crisis? – The investor’s-eye view • Regional productivity & demographic conditions – Technology versus climate change – Population growth and urbanization • Country-level nutrition outcomes – Successes (and failures) around the world • Friedman school responses
World food price spikes and trends: Another food crisis? Monthly average prices for wheat, maize and rice, Jan. 2000 -Oct. 2010 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Wheat Maize Rice Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: FAO Global Information and Early Warning System price data (http: //www. fao. org/giews/pricetool), Nov. 7, 2010. All are monthly export prices, normalized to Jan. 2000=100, for US No. 2 Hard Red Winter Wheat, US No. 2 Yellow Maize, and Thai 100% Broken Rice.
World food price spikes and trends: The investor’s-eye view Food commodities, equities and the dollar, Mar. 2 nd 2007 -Nov. 5 th 2010 Food commodities (DB Agriculture index) US dollars (per unit of major currencies) US equities (S&P 500 index) Source: Google Finance, downloaded Nov. 7, 2010. Cost of food is shown by the DB Agriculture Index (DBA), which tracks US dollar prices for near-term futures contracts on nine major commodities. Value of the US dollar is shown by the DB Short US Dollar Futures Index (UDN), which tracks the price of selling US dollars to buy a basket of six major currencies. The S&P 500 index is a value-weighted sum of major publicly-traded corporations on U. S. stock markets.
Regional productivity & demographic conditions: Technology versus climate change Africa’s green revolution finally arrives? USDA estimates of average cereal grain yields (mt/ha), 1960 -2010 4. 5 Rest-of-World 4. 0 World 3. 5 Southeast Asia 3. 0 South Asia 2. 5 Sub-Saharan Africa 2. 0 1. 5 1. 0 0. 5 Source: Calculated from USDA , PS&D data (www. fas. usda. gov/psdonline/, downloaded 7 Nov 2010. Results shown are each region’s total production per harvested area in barley, corn, millet, mixed grains, oats, rice, rye, sorghum and wheat. 1 /2 10 20 00 /2 05 20 01 6 1 20 00 /2 00 6 95 /1 99 1 19 /1 90 19 98 /1 85 19 99 6 1 80 /1 98 6 19 19 75 /1 97 1 19 70 /1 97 6 96 /1 65 19 19 60 /1 96 1 0. 0
Regional productivity & demographic conditions: Population growth and urbanization 10 Millions World (total) 9 8 Total 7 Urban 6 Sub-Saharan Africa 1. 8 1. 6 Total 1. 4 Rural 5 2. 0 Urban 1. 2 2010 1. 0 Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2009 Revision , released April 2010 at http: //esa. un. org/unpd/wup. Downloaded 7 Nov. 2010. 2050 2040 2030 2020 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 2050 2040 0. 0 2030 0 2020 0. 2 2010 1 2000 0. 4 1990 2 1980 0. 6 1970 3 1960 0. 8 1950 4 2010 Rural 1950 Millions Slowing rural population growth allows for greater food sales: UN Population Projections estimates of urban and rural population, 1950 -2050
Country-level nutrition outcomes: Success is possible! National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0 -5 years) Selected countries with repeated national surveys Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010, at http: //www. unscn. org.
Country-level nutrition outcomes: Success (and failures) in East Africa National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0 -5 years) Selected countries with repeated national surveys Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010, at http: //www. unscn. org.
Country-level nutrition outcomes: Failures (and successes) in W. &S. Africa National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0 -5 years) Selected countries with repeated national surveys Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010, at http: //www. unscn. org.
Friedman School Responses • Learning from cross-country data – Opportunities in Africa • Learning from successful interventions – Opportunities for nutrition programming • Learning from students and alumni – Opportunities for the school
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