global investment committee decision Research & Strategy 2 February 2012
Asset allocation decision The GIC decided to cut the current 15% relative Underweight for equities by half to around 7. 5%, based on the following considerations: } recent macro data are on average better than expected across the globe, further reducing the threat of a dip into a global recession in the months ahead } the ECB is providing support to the banking system through extensive liquidity programs. The Fed has also confirmed the ultra accommodative monetary policy. These developments reduce the systemic risk of the financial system } the probability of an EMU breakup is receding, although this risk is not completely eliminated These factors are interdependent and provide a more constructive context for being less risk-averse and more positive on equities. However, we advise to remain Underweight equities as a resurgence of sovereign debt risks can affect the growth prospects and market sentiment.
Macro update § Recent economic data have been better than expected across the globe, further reducing threat of new global recession and creating a positive surprise for financial markets § Purchasing Manager Index is improving across the globe, documenting the manufacturing improvement but the Eurozone remains the weakest link, US housing remains a drag and corporate investment spending is weak. The scenario of moderate global growth remains on our agenda § The ECB has created a positive impact on the market with its significant medium term lending facilities (LTRO) to the banking system. These support programs should continue in the coming months § The January 30 th EU Summit consolidated the directions in terms of fiscal discipline and necessary structural reforms to boost growth. However, current sanctions for ill-disciplined countries are not significant (approx 0. 1% of GDP) § Although the risk of EMU break has receded, the Greek restructuring is not yet finalied and Portugal debt financing remains vulnerable
Progressive steps in asset allocation § The strength of the recent relief rally is reflecting an improvement of confidence and it is worth noting, as financial stocks outperformed § One risk is that the rally may run out of steam as most indices are close to key technical analysis resistance levels § The long term outlook for the financial sector is negative with increasing pressure from banking regulators, low growth and bank recapitalisations and the sector remains Underweight § The ABN AMRO Global Investment Committee’s decision is a steps towards adjusting progressive risk-taking in cash-rich portfolios
Asset allocation per 2 February 2012 USD&EUR Risk profiles % Asset allocation Asset Class (%) Money Markets Bonds* Equity Markets ** Alt. Investments Funds of hedge funds Real Estate Commodities Total (%) III Strategic Tactical Deviation 5 90 0 5 29 66 0 5 +24 -24 5 70 15 10 26 52 14 8 +21 -18 -1 -2 5 55 30 10 22 42 28 8 +17 -13 -2 -2 5 0 0 100 5 0 0 5 3 2 100 Asset allocation Asset Class (%) II 100 5 3 0 -2 100 IV 100 Deviation Strategic Tactical Deviation 5 35 50 10 17 28 47 8 +12 -7 -3 -2 5 15 70 10 14 13 65 8 +9 -2 -5 -2 100 5 3 2 -2 100 5 3 0 100 -2 VI Tactical 5 3 0 100 V Strategic 5 3 2 Strategic 5 0 85 10 Tactical 13 0 79 8 5 3 2 -2 100 Deviation +8 -6 -2 5 3 0 -2 100 *Recommended duration 4, 25 years in USD and EUR profiles (Neutral). Benchmark: Bo. A ML Government : 1 -10 years. ** Foreign exchange exposure: Only equity markets and a small portion of alternative investments are exposed to foreign currencies. ***Allocation of 10% (depending on the asset allocation profile) into High Yield (HY) with a preference for US fund, but with a cap of 3% of the total allocation.
Asset allocation of our ‘old’profiles per 2 February 2012 USD&EUR Risk profiles % Asset allocation Asset Class (%) Money Markets Bonds* Equity Markets ** Alt. Investments Funds of hedge funds Real Estate Commodities Total (%) Conservative Balanced Growth Strategic Tactical Deviation 10 70 10 10 20 63 9 8 +10 -7 -1 -2 10 40 40 10 23 31 38 8 +13 -9 -2 -2 5 3 2 100 5 3 0 100 5 3 2 -2 100 5 3 0 100 Strategic 10 20 50 20 Tactical 25 11 47 16 10 6 4 -2 100 Deviation +15 -9 -3 -4 10 6 0 100 * Recommended duration 3, 5 years in USD and EUR profiles (Neutral). Benchmark: Citigroup Government : 3 -5 years. ** Foreign exchange exposure: Only equity markets and a small portion of alternative investments are exposed to foreign currencies. -4
No change in sector and geographical equity allocation since 19 January 2012 Our major indicators generate the following signals for stock markets around the globe: Equity Allocation ‘Underweight’ Sector Region Valuations: Neutral to slightly positive Sentiment: Clearly positive Overweight Telecom Services Neutral Basic Materials Earnings: Neutral to negative. Recent numbers in the US are decent on average, while some clear disappointments have occurred in Europe. The adjustment cycle in earnings forecasts has not yet ended. Overweight Healthcare Macro: Neutral Consumer Staples Neutral Energy Neutral Information Techn. Neutral Consumer Discretionary EM Latin America Overweight EM Asia Pacific Overweight North America Neutral Developed markets Asia (ex Japan) Neutral Europe Neutral EM Europe, Middle East, Africa Underweight Utilities Neutral Japan Underweight Industrials Neutral Financials Underweight
No change in bond allocation since 19 January 2011 Reminder of the last change : We had increased the asset allocation to Bonds (from Cash) by investing into US High. Yield (HY) corporates with instruments/funds capable of hedging the currency for non. USD-based portfolios. In doing so, we can profit from an attractive yield pick-up (more than 600 bp), as current levels are discounting high default rates consitent with a severe US recession scenario. Bond portfolio allocation
Financial and economic forecasts per 18 January 2012 Forex forecast Equity forecast FX pair EUR/USD 18 Jan 1. 28 Mar 2012 1. 25 Jun 2012 1. 30 Sep 2012 1. 35 Dec 2012 1. 35 GBP/USD EUR/GBP USD/CHF EUR/CHF USD/JPY EUR/JPY USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/NOK EUR/SEK 1. 54 0. 83 0. 95 1. 21 77 98 1. 01 1. 04 0. 80 7. 68 8. 82 1. 52 0. 82 1. 00 1. 25 74 93 1. 03 0. 99 0. 76 7. 70 8. 90 1. 57 0. 83 0. 98 1. 27 76 99 1. 03 1. 02 0. 78 7. 50 8. 75 1. 61 0. 84 0. 96 1. 30 78 105 1. 03 1. 05 0. 80 7. 40 8. 50 1. 59 0. 85 1. 00 1. 35 79 107 1. 00 1. 05 0. 80 7. 40 8. 40 Spot 18 January S&P 500 Euro Stoxx 50 FTSE – 100 Nikkei 225 DAX CAC 40 AEX Hang Seng Index Shanghai SE Comp. Straits Times Index Interest rates and bond yields (%) Direction 3 months Forward PE 2012 ► ► ► ▼ 11. 2 8. 3 9. 0 13. 1 8. 9 8. 5 9. 1 8. 1 11. 7 1308 2391 5702 8551 6355 3265 316 19687 2266 2849 Macro forecast (%) United States 18 Jan Mar 2012 Jun 2012 Sep 2012 Dec 2012 US Fed 0. 0 -0. 25 3 month 0. 56 0. 30 2 year 0. 22 0. 30 0. 50 0. 60 0. 80 10 year 1. 87 1. 75 2. 00 2. 25 2. 50 ECB Refi 1. 00 0. 50 3 -month 1. 22 0. 70 2 -year 0. 15 0. 50 0. 70 0. 90 10 -year 1. 77 1. 50 1. 75 2. 00 2. 25 Real GDP growth 2012 ABN AMRO US Eurozone UK Japan Other countries** EM Asia Latin America EEMEA*** World 2. 1 -0. 8 0. 5 2. 2 2. 1 7. 1 3. 8 2. 6 3. 3 Inflation 2012 Market view* ABN AMRO Market view* 2. 1 -0. 1 0. 7 2. 0 6. 9 3. 5 2. 8 3. 3 1. 7 1. 6 2. 3 -0. 3 2. 0 5. 0 6. 5 5. 1 3. 5 2. 1 1. 8 2. 7 -0. 2 1. 7 4. 4 6. 4 7. 0 3. 5 All forecasts are annual averages of quarterly year-on-year changes. * Blue chip ** Other developed countries are Australia, Canada, Denmark, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland ***EEMEA: Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa
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