Global Foresight – Impact Overview: World Future Society Toronto Meeting July 27 2012 Jack Smith, Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa and TFCI Canada Inc.
BUILDING PROSPERITY by CREATING INNOVATION & EXPLOITING CAPITAL Foresight enables us to anticipate, develop & position our assets ASSETS 5 Types of Capital Assets New Wealth Creation Human Capital; SKILLS & IDEAS “Wetware “ (Educated & Healthy) Innovation Capital “Software” (Codified Knowledge & Technology) Social Capital “Shareware” (Institutions & Voluntary , Virtual Organizations - Networks Physical Capital “Hardware” (Facilities & Buildings) Natural Capital “Bioware” (Natural Resources & Environment) Future Socio-economic Performance in the New. Next Emerging Economy Ultimate Goal High and Sustainable Quality of Life h High income per capita h Employment opportunities h Healthy and educated population h Clean environment h Safe places to live and work h Economic security for all citizens Current Socio-Economic Performance re: Government Policy Role Intergovernmental Relations h International trade/treaties h Federal/provincial/municipal Framework Policies h Environmental standards h Tax/regulatory/industrial policy h Fiscal/monetary management h Social policy Delivery of Services h Health/education/social welfare h Infrastructure, safety, security Trends in the Global Economy • Production Costs; • Job creation; • Trade balance • Foreign investment • Technology transfer • Productivity, • Growth • Innovation h Globalization Technological/ h h communications change Regional/global trade liberalization Internationalization of business World demographics Shifts in Canada’s “ RUBRIC” relations 2
Foresight Analytics for Innovation • Technology Readiness & Capability Assessment (TRCA); First examine the technologies for state of readiness and your own capability to drive them to development by filling gaps, adding knowledge and skills etc; • Prospective Applications & Opportunities Valuation (PAOP); application of foresight plus competitive intelligence-business analytics to determine best investments under uncertainty; • Innovation System Enablers & Scaffolding (ISES) ; e. g. venture capital; IRAP ; concierge role – CERC and coaching; managing for growth - what systemic elements need to be assured>?
Macro Shaping Trends 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. Demographic, wealth shifts in West & world, BRICs-NICs – beyond boomers; Mechanization of Intelligence – ambient networks & toward Singularity; Global Anxiety – from Global Warming-Climate Change to Debt and Terrorism; Miniaturization, Automation (robotics) & Socialization of Technology; Globalization of Capital, Terror , Disease, Eco-Environment, Wealth Creation; Anti-globalization of Biodiversity, Culture, Sustainability, Wealth Distribution; De-Carbonization, Diversification of Energy Economy; Harmonization - Standardization for Trade ; Proliferation of Surveillance - Security in all domains; Urbanization Migration, Multi-Culturalism of Populations; Acceleration of Services as Economic Driver; Smartness Transformation of Infrastructure Systems; Intensification, Differentiation of Knowledge, Health & Wealth; Virtualization, Digitization & Integration of: Business-Professions, Production, Communications, Entertainment, Education; 15. Convergence in technology applications: bio-info-nano-design (BIND) + ecocogno/neuro capabilities- signalling new possibilities across multiple platforms 16. Performance and impact – increased analytical focus on systemic interventions; more interest in measurement, evidence in policy 17. Add your own
Implications for Government Led Foresight • More Governments (adopting, supporting, leading) • Critical Success Factors • Systemic Foresight with more methodological diversity • Integrated Foresight - better alignment with Policy Cycle • Measuring Foresight Impact 5
Global Foresight Overview - Asia Nation Japan Focus - Scale • The 9 th Japanese Foresight (NISTEP: www. nistep. go. jp); • • 2012: The 4 th National Technology Foresight 2012 -2013: The Future of ICT in 2025 • • • Low carbon economy (APEC); Thailand Agriculture Future Scenario; ASEAN Cities Innovation System Foresight • Foresight work in government enjoys highlevel support. • Centre for Strategic Futures acts as central node - focus is on trends and drivers that will affect Singapore as whole; • • National Scenarios exercise every 3 – 5 yrs. Ongoing project-Emerging Strategic Issues project, to identify issues that have not yet surfaced as critical, but for which there is some evidence of future significant impact; • Korea • Broad on a national scale: scenarios, Delphi, needs survey; green economy Recent Projects • Malaysian National Foresight Institute & MIGHT National Technology Foresight Into The Mind of Youth Future Rail 2030 • 2 year national project ; 19 committees with more than 100 experts & 5 K experts in Delphi; 652 technologies in 8 mega trends; • Future of ICT using 10 Megatrends • Thailand Singapore Malaysia • • APEC CTF – sustainable development, inclusive innovation; ASEAN Krabi Initiative; Agriculture Sector (national), Cities Innovation (regional) National R&D, technology priorities - 300 experts & stakeholders ; Youth-national development 5 K students Development of national rail industry • •
Global Foresight Overview - Europe Nation European Commission Focus - Scale • • Austria UK • • • Recent Projects EFP is Trans-European + • Americas over 200 foresight briefs registered to date – ending • Sept 2012 Preparation for FP 8 re 2020 Sector Foresight Projects & • AIT lead for EFP & INFU (Innovation futures – emerging patterns – about 100+ experts; 5% • from outside Europe) UK Foresight Office The Home Office DSTI – Horizone EC Joint Projects ( I KNOW; SANDERA) EFFLA (EC launched a platform for using Forward Looking Activities to advise the Commission) EFP – European Foresight Platform (a network of leading foresight institutions) e. g. INFU is a consortium with Z_punkt + Fraunhofer ISI (Germany) and Strategic Design Scenarios (Belgium) Freight Vision Austria (Transport) Current UKFO projects • • Future Disaster Anticipation and Resilience The Future of Identity The Future of Manufacturing The Future of Computer Trading (Finance Markets) • Foresight Process of the BMBF (see Germany • National Foresight Projects initiated by the Research Ministry (BMBF), e. g. FUTUR; http: //www. bmbf. de/en/index. php) aims to support research and innovation policy; 20072009 for S&T) and Cycle II (just started): needoriented
Global Foresight Overview - Other Nation Focus - Scale • Brazil • • Russia • • • Australia • • Turkey • • Recent Projects National sector funds- Strategic Studies Institute • (CGEE) with Ministry for STI and decision boards • of the Funds; CGEE & ABDI (Brazilian Agency for Industrial Development) CGEE-15 Brazilian Sector Funds – future scenarios and technologies; Critical technologies for 8 industrial sectors with the ABDI – le by CGEE The Higher School for Economics is the leader of • • Russian foresight STI- Emerging technologies Company / Industry • Foresight strategies and methods; HSE- Roadmap of S&T for Russia ; HSE-Rusnano; 2009 -12 Nanotech roadmap; HSE – sectors e. g. Aircraft frames & aviation futures 2011 -2012 Economic and strategic –national positioning 2011 • • -12. for the PMO-Cabinet Department Health system – 18 mo; 2011 -2013 still active Australia in the Asian Century ; Enabling Assistive Technologies for Healthy Ageing for the Department of Industry, Innovation, Science, Research and Higher Education Foresight methods – Yeditepe. University; International Research Conference on Foresight and Futures; Corporate foresight analysis by Atilla Oner and Senem Gol Beser Health system - horizons for change YNT: YIRCo. BS'12 - Economics and Management in Health Care Sector YIRCo. F ’ 11 Theory Building in Foresight and Futures Studies; 2011 "Assessment of Corporate Foresight; case of a multinational company in Turkey", Foresight, Vol. 13 Issue: 2, pp. 49 - 63 • • •
Measuring Foresight Impact • 2009 -2011 meetings of the Govt Foresight Leaders Forum – Hartwell House UKFO; OECD Paris; Policy Horizons Canada; • Foresight Success Vignettes; • APEC Center for Technology Foresight – Bangkok International Advisory Board; • Special Issue of Foresight Volume 14 #1 February 2012; Foresight Impacts Around The World; (incl: Ian Miles, Ron Johnston, NISTEP, Calof & Smith, Riel Miller, Michael Jackson & more • September 2011: Foresight Impact Measurement Instrument TFCI Canada Inc.
A key recurring challenge has been how to demonstrate the value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative costefficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.
Foresight and Policy- a Symbiotic Relationship Foresight is varied and has many distinct stakeholders – so we need multiple measures to assess performance and measure impacts; The TFCI – Telfer School instrument relies upon 7 groups: 1. Roles that foresight plays for business, government and academia; 2. Benefits that can be realized by foresight sponsors, participants; 3. Critical Success Factors – how well designed, planned, aligned wit sponsors, clients knowledge opportunities etc. 4. Meta Measures – e. g. degrees of learning, awareness, exposure to new ideas etc. 5. Pre-Policy Measures – how foresight provides direction, insights, strategies for R&D, policy options- analysis; 6. Policy Support Measures – ways that foresight provides ongoing support for policies and their implementation; 7. Post-Policy Actions, Communications , where foresight helps ensure ongoing credibility, adaptiveness of policies.
Which roles are most important for your value proposition? Key Roles Perspective (R. Johnston)
Benefits Perspective (Yuan et al)
Critical Success Factors Perspective (1 -4)
Critical Success Factors Perspective (5 -8)
Building A Foresight Impact Measurement Framework Meta Measures Learning & Education (L&E) Foresight essentially is a learning process - each foresight project educates someone, and usually all participants. e. g. Testimonials, anecdotes, resonant personal and institutional stories, evidence of new skills mastery, recognition of terms, stages and insights; calls for advice by leaders based upon past work; reputation for new insights-education. Add your measures here Training & Skills Development (T&S) Strategic Directions (S&D) Risk – Uncertainty Reduction (R&U) Design & Planning (D&P) Foresight is often motivated by sponsors wanting to strengthen readiness , resilience and preparedness skills e. g. Courses, seminars, training sessions attended; enhanced abilities and capabilities as described by stakeholders, clients, champions; certificates of proficiency, acceptance by professional societies such as the APF. Foresight is often initiated to provide guidance, to initiate change in direction, priorities etc. e. g. Acceptance of new strategies by one's organization; assignments to strategic teams; evidence of foresight in adopted priorities; new direction with foresight derived origins. Foresight is a key tool for risk assessment, and management of uncertainty. e. g. Statements of risks linked to future uncertainties and the (foresight )process of determining levels of perceived risk and management approaches to these risks. Foresight is closely aligned with design and planning e. g. Recognition, evidence and examples of how foresight can or did provide resilience in the form of contingency design and planning for those aspects of design and planning which are inevitably uncertain.
Pre - Policy Developmental Measures • Research & Development Priorities 2 -4 2. 85 • New Insights & Knowledge 2 -5 3. 30 • Adding Creativity, Invention & Imagination 1 -5 3. 58 • Contribute to Policy Research, Options-Analysis 1 -5 3. 40 • Educate Leaders on Foresight -Policy Issues 1 -5 3. 12 • Affect Attitudes & Beliefs 2 -5 3. 25 • Develop Connections & Networks 2 -5 4. 33
Policy Support Measures • • Stakeholder Engagement & Characterization Framing Policy Issues, Options & Decisions Validation & Legitimacy Advice for Policy Champions Change Factor Analysis Socio-Economic Threats & Opportunities Filter for Future Robustness Manage Complexity, Ambiguity & Horizontal Issues 1 -5 3. 42 1 -5 3. 36 2 -5 3. 41 2 -4 3. 32 2 -5 3. 39 2 -4. 5 3. 25 2 -4 3. 19 2 -5 3. 83
(Post)Policy Implementation Measures
Highest & Lowest Impacts – 54 Measures
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