Global Education Market Presentation To International Forum On

Global Education Market Presentation To International Forum On Investment In Higher Education Washington DC, 22 January 2004 Ron Perkinson International Finance Corporation Health & Education Department www. ifc. org / www. ifc. org/edinvest

The Global Market • $2. 2 trillion+ total – one third of market in USA – approx 15% only in the developing world • Teachers – 5% of global labor force • Primary & Secondary Education – substantially public funded • Tertiary & Adult Education – changing landscape - free provision diminished – regulatory - governments more liberalized – private sector participation growing (est 17%) Sources: Merrill Lynch 2000; OECD 2000; World Bank; IFC:

Students Studying Abroad • Over 1. 6 million international tertiary students abroad in OECD countries (est $30 billion market) • Over 580, 000 in USA 2001/02 – or around 35% of OECD total (6. 4% inc from Yr 2000) • UK had 14% of OECD total in 2001 – students from China increased by 67% from previous year – 31% increase from India • Other significant OECD share – Germany ( 12% ) – Australia ( 10% ) – France ( 8% ) – and NZ ( 5% ) • ERASMUS program – over 120, 000 students a year

International Students – Big Business • Australia Australia 160, 000+ foreign students in Yr 2001 – growing to 560, 000 by Yr 2025 – double again in distance programs – 50%+ from Singapore and Hong Kong are distance • % of Total Exports % of Total Exports – 11% and 4% respectively of Australia and NZ’s in Yr 2000 – 3. 5% and 3. 2% respectively of US and UK’s • China – 44, 700 foreign students in Yr 2000 – of which 70% from Asia – 12% from Europe – 11% from the USA Report commissioned by IDP Education Australia; China Education Yearbook, 2002

Enrollment in Private Higher Education (as a % of total) ** ** = Latest Internal ADB est YR 2001 Sources: IBRD/IFC; UNESCO 2000; OECD 2001; Levy – Research on Private Higher Education – April 2002;

Medical Schools – growing % private • Recent growth in medical schools – greater proportion private • Globally 1300 in 1995 – today nearly 2000 • 260 medical colleges in India – approx 30% are private • Private medical schools also growing in Malaysia, Thailand, Middle East, LAC and Former Soviet Union Sources: Chronicle July 2003; IFC

World Population Growth Year Population Time Per Billion Yr 1 250 m – 1800 1 b 1800 yrs 1930 2 b 130 yrs 1960 3 b 30 yrs 1975 4 b 15 yrs 1988 5 b 13 yrs 2001 6 b 13 yrs Source: “ 6 Billion Human Beings: ” - Musée de l'Homme Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Paris –France

Balancing Education Sector Needs. . . . With Fiscal Realities • Economic decline – available resources for education shrink • Governments reconciling and balancing education fiscal realities and demographic trends • ‘Supplementary’ costs – shifting to parents and students • Tuition fees increasing globally

Trends in Public & Private Financing Education Global Estimates - All Countries 1996 to 2000 87% 83% Public investment Private investment 17% * 13% * Source: : OECD 2000; UNESCO 1999; IFC staff estimates 2002: * = est. – Trends in Private Investment

Trends in Private and Public Investment In Developing Countries 1970– 2000 14. 65% Private investment Public investment Source: : IFC 2000 – Trends in Private Investment 7. 05%

Global Giants – Lack of Supply in the world’s most populous countries China: – 10 to 11% gross enrollment – Yr 2000 – 7. 2 m students enrolled (excluding distance) – admitted 2. 2 m new students in Yr 2002 – 26 m students currently in high school – 15 m students to enroll over next 4 years India: – 6% gross enrollment – 10, 900 HEI’s (includes 237 Deemed Universities) – over 8 m students enrolled – some programs - 5000 applicants per place Sources: Unesco 2000; India Planning Commission Report 2002; China Dept of Statistics 2002

Funding Comparatives Funding Comparatives. . . the most populous nations India China LAC UK USA Total Population approx 1000 1260 520 60 280 Public Expenditure on Education ($B) 16 23 94 72 480 0. 7% 1. 0% 4. 2% 3. 2% 22% % Global Budget Per 10 m Population $0. 16 b $0. 2 b $1. 8 b $12 b $17 b Sources: UNESCO 1999 & 2000; World Bank 2001; US Department of Education 2001; Department of Education & Skills UK, 2002

Student Financing • Over 60 countries have student loans – mostly public schemes • Variable performance • Loan schemes important – can improve access and opportunity • Some barriers – private banking sector experience limited – cost of credit usually high – mobility of students after graduating – underwriting risk and cross border issues difficult • Access to proven systems & experience – valuable

Higher Education – ‘the perfect storm’ . . . the six converging forces of change • The increasing importance of knowledge • The further impact of globalization • The impact of increasing competition • The continued impact of internationalization • The continuing Information & Communications Technologies revolution • Decline in public financing – sourcing alternative financing • Source: ‘World Bank ‘Constructing Knowledge Economies” 2002; The Changing Enterprise’ – ACE 2002; IFC

Accreditation & Quality Management Accreditation • 80+ countries with accreditation systems • Sets minimum standards • Level playing field important – commercial stability Quality • Increased attention to QMS • Growing awareness of co-op regional initiatives

. . GATS. . . • 144 countries trade in higher education services • Raise Barriers or Limit Entry? – entry of foreign providers in to local markets - or – limit how foreign providers operate in domestic markets • Issues of IP – and equal treatment of national and foreign providers on education subsidies

Changing Business Models • Changing modus operandi – Public goes Private – new forms of competition • Shift from ‘venue-driven’ to ‘market-driven’ delivery systems • Market demand for flexible delivery options (evenings; weekends; distance learning; use of new learning technologies) • E-learning - investment confidence and sector growing • From isolated university models – to linked HEI courses – QA and credit transfer systems – broader options and career pathways • Separation of institutional management and academic power of faculty – different control over ‘business administration’

Lifelong Learning Changing Student Profiles • Adults with tertiary qualifications – increased from 22% to over 40% today in OECD countries • Over 40% of undergraduates in US & 30% of Canada’s undergraduate students are over 25 yrs • Yr 2000 – over 20% of first year university students were over 27 yrs – in Australia, NZ, Denmark, Norway & Sweden • Lifelong learning attracting new learners – more diversified – older and part time students Sources: OECD 2000/2001; ‘The Changing Enterprise’ – ACE 2002;

Faculty – the ageing workforce • By Yr 2010 – as student demographics increase – growing competition looming for Scholars – increasing global pressure on staffing • Canada, 33% of faculty over 55 years – 50% are 40 to 54 yrs • USA, 30% are over 55 years – 27% are 40 to 54 yrs • Impact on developing countries – potential ‘brain drain’ – higher salary incentives elsewhere – loss also to private sector Source: “The Brave New World of Higher Education”; Madeleine Green, Peter Eckel – ACE; & Andris Barblan – EUA; 2002

Distance Education • Asia has 3. 5 m students (2000) – China Central Radio and TV University has 1. 5 million – enrolls over 100, 000 each year • 30% of all tertiary courses in Russia are distance • LAC has over 1 million tertiary distance education students • Technikon South Africa has another 60, 000 students • The E. A. D. T. U. – 18 members – 14 countries – 900, 000 students • Canada – 500, 000 students – many on-line • • British Open University – 154, 000 students – produces 9% of all undergraduates at 5% of national university budget Source: ‘The Changing Enterprise’ – ACE 2002; World Bank & IFC;

On-Line Education – steady growth • Many On-Line players – some operations are in good health – and growing – (Bilgi University and RMIT) • Yr 2002, 19% of corporate training in US was on-line – up from around 7% three years earlier • $150 billion industry by 2025 Sources: IDC; IFC 2002

The Parallel Training Universe • New players in higher education offering education and training in more advanced technologies. • Global I. T. companies / I. T. training providers (NIIT; SSI/Aptech; ) – operate outside certified higher ed credentials and accreditation – but some affiliations • In Yr 2000, global I. T. companies ‘certified’ 1. 6 million students worldwide with 2. 4 million certificates in Information Technologies. • Cisco provides certificated training for 400, 000 students in 150 countries

Future Outlook • Financing of education will tighten – demographics outweigh fiscal realities – growth in non-public financing • New business models – ‘Public going Private’ trend will grow • Knowledge societies and lifelong learning – important for economic development – new systems for education and trg • Globalization and internationalization – changing the future landscape of higher education, national and cross-border • ICT’s and the Internet – optimizing use of new technologies – models advancing quality-based mass education delivery

There is nothing permanent. . . except change Heraclitus