Global Economic Crisis & Workers Rights: Issues for Unions 全球经济危机与 人权利 会面临的问题
What caused the global economic crisis? 全球经济危机的根源 - Immediate causes直接原因 - Fundamental roots of the crisis 危机的根源 - What can we learn from it? 给我们的教训
Background of the crisis危机的背景 • US Internet stocks crash in 2001 -02 – to counter threat of recession, interest rate lowered to 1% in 2003 - easy money availability set off housing market boom & speculation • 2001－2002年美国互联网泡沫崩溃－为免于衰退，2003年 利率下调至 1％－轻易获得贷款带来房地产市场泡沫和投机 • Housing loans market was lucrative since these loans could be sold as securities (CDOs) to other banks & financial institutions, who in turn bundled these CDOs into giant securities & sold it to others & so on – the value of these securities now runs into trillions (no one has any exact idea) • 由于贷款可作为证券销售，房地产贷款市场利润可观，购买 这些房地产证券的银行和投资机构将这些证券与大的证券捆 绑打包卖给其他人，一环接一环，最后大大抬高了这些证券 的价格
Background of the crisis 危机的背景 • To cover risk of default on CDOs, buying institutions bought insurance (credit default swaps) – which generated huge profits for insuring companies - CDS market is said to be as big as $45 trillion – both CDOs & CDS market is not regulated by govt. • 为掩盖CDO带来的风险，收购这些CDO的机构开始买保险， 给保险公司带来巨额利润 Crisis erupted when housing interest rates were raised in Aug 2007, housing loan defaults started, housing market crash & CDOs became worthless… banks & insurance Cos. fail liquidity crunch real economy faces credit squeeze consumption, building activity & cash flows reduce US recession + globalization global troubles 随着2007年 8月提高住房贷款利率，危机爆发，引发房贷坏 账，房地产市场崩盘，CDO严重贬值
Impact on Asia 对亚洲的影响 • Outflow of capital from Asia (>100 billion $$$ in 2008) – what was its impact on Asian economies, stock markets & currencies? • 资本从亚洲外流-对亚洲各个经济体、证券市场和货币的影响 ？ • Impact of recession in western markets on Asian production & economic growth • 西方市场衰退，影响亚洲产品和经济增长 • Impact of credit squeeze on domestic investments, industry & jobs • 压缩信贷对国内投资、 业和就业机会的影响 • Remittances, foreign aid, govt revenue go down • 汇款、外援资金、政府财政收入下滑
Impact on Asia 对亚洲的影响 • Workers pension funds - globally pension funds lost over 5 trillion $ between 2007 & 2008) – in some countries where pensions were privatised (ex in Latin America), they lost more • 人养老基金-2007 -2008年间全球养老金减少 5万亿美元—在 一些养老金私营化的国家，损失更加严重，如拉美。 • Implications for collective agreements & industrial relations (wage cuts, wage freeze, rise in casual unprotected work, higher work loads, forced unpaid leave, default on social security contributions, violations of Fo. A) • 对集体合同和产业关系的影响（包括削减 资、临时 作岗 位增加、 作量增加、强迫不带薪休假、欠付社会保险金、 违反结社自由权等）
Possible Impact according to ILO 国际劳 组织预测可能带来的影响 • Increase in unemployment by over 50 million in 2009 • 2009年，全球失业人数将增加 5千万 • About 200 million people into extreme poverty, majority in developing countries • 约 2亿人陷入赤贫，多在发展中国家 • Working poor (earning below US$2 person, per day) can go up to 1. 4 billion (45% of the world’s employed) • 作贫困人口将增加至 14亿，占全球总受雇人口的45%。 • Conditions of self employed & workers in informal employment much worse • 非正规部门自雇业者的状况更加恶化
But - what are the root causes of the global economic crisis? 但是这场全球经济危机的根源何在？
The root causes 根源 • Crisis of over production/over capacity & erosion of profitability (due to social inequalities that limit purchasing powers) - Need for constantly increasing profits requires capital to keep looking for new markets – for cheap labour, cheap sources of raw materials, new markets to invest & sell • 生产过剩或生产能力过剩危机（由于社会不公限制人们的购买力）-资本 的逐利原则使得资本不断寻找新的市场，以得到廉价的劳动力、廉价的原 材料和新的投资和销售市场。 • lack of regulation of financial markets & institutions - ‘markets know the best’ philosophy – greed & speculation - de-regulation of economy & labour markets • 金融市场缺乏监管-“市场万能”理论，导致贪婪和投机行为失控-对经济和 劳动力市场自由化 lets look at post war economic history of the world ! 试看战后经济发展历史
The root causes 根源 • 1945 -1970 s : welfare state, keynesian economic policies, strong unions, rapid economic growth – this period came to end in late 1970 s due to - increased global competition, tremendous rise in productive capacities (Germany, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Brazil), reducing profitability – on top of this process came oil price shocks • 1945 -1970 S：福利国家、凯恩斯主义经济政策、强 会、高速的经济增 长，直到上世纪七十年代结束，主要原因在于全球竞争加剧、生产能力剧 增、利润降低，以及石油价格危机 • Post 1970 s - Neo-liberal restructuring of economies - Reaganism & Thatcherism & structural adjustment (1980 s) - redistribute incomes towards the rich on theory that rich invest & that will promote economic growth – have these policies worked? • 上世纪七十年代以后-新自由主义经济改组-里根主义、撒切尔主义和结构 调整（八十年代）
…then came Globalization 带来全球化 • Integration of China, India, Brazil, Russia, & many other emerging market economies – as production centres, markets, sources of cheap labour, raw materials • 中国、印度、巴西、俄罗斯和其他新兴市场经济体的一体化作为生产中心、市场、廉价劳动力和原材料来源 • Almost 40 -50% of the profits of US corporations come from their operations & sales abroad now, especially in China. • 美国企业 40 -50%的利润来自中国在内的海外市场 • But - Globalization increases the problem of over-capacity, which depresses prices & profits • 但是-全球化带来了能力过剩问题，造成价格和利润削减
Rise of Financialization 金融本位主义出现 • Declining profits in industry & agriculture gave spurt to financial sector investments • 业和农业利润下降刺激金融行业投资 • Financial sector creates profits but it doesn’t create new value • 金融行业创造利润但不能创造新价值 • Growth of trading in derivatives (Value of credit derivatives market is estimated at more than 8 times the global GDP) • 金融衍生品贸易的出现
Financialization of Economy 经济的金融本位主义 • Growth of (unregulated) private equity capital/hedge funds and their operations in mfg sector - profits are made by selling-off assets of companies, downsizing, reducing investment in plant & equipment, shutting down mfg operations, outsourcing production, share buy backs – all in the name of maximizing share-holder value • 私人或无序证劵资本及操作-出售企业、裁员、减少企业设备 投资、外包等带来的利润 • Even mfg companies play markets rather than produce (Ex GE, GM, Porsche) – even social security funds MFG企业也开始做市场游戏，而不是进行生产-包括社会保 险基金
Volatility of financial sector 金融部门的不稳定性 • financial crises since capital markets were deregulated & liberalized in the 1980 s • 自上世纪八十年代资本市场放开和自由化之后出现的金融 危机 - Japan in 1989 -91日本 - Finland, Italy, UK, Sweden in 1992芬、意、英、瑞 - Mexican financial crisis in 1994 -95墨西哥 - Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 -98亚洲金融危机 - Russian Fin Crisis in 1998俄罗斯 - Argentine Fin collapse in 2001 -02阿根廷 - US technology stocks crash in 2000 -01美国
So, what needs to be done? 怎么办？ • What is Capital saying? Create of Global Financial Regulatory Coordinating Council (comprised of private banks, IMF, WB), … BUT emergency action should not provide the basis for a permanent larger role for the public in the international financial system - Institute of International Finance (financial sector’s global lobby organization) • 资本如何说？创立一个全球金融管理协调委员会（包括私有 银行、IMF、WB），但必须采取紧急行动，为公共在国际金 融体制中发挥更大作用奠定基础。
Union view 会的观点 • End deregulation of employment market & ensure respect for fundamental rights of workers (Fo. A & CB rights) • 停止就业市场的无序化，保证 人的基本权利（包括结社自 由和集体谈判权） • Ensure basic social security for all (effective social protection measures would have minimized ‘impact of economic crisis’ and assisted in improving effectiveness of stimulus/recovery packages) • 确保所有人享有基本社会保障（采取有效的社会保护措施， 尽量减少经济危机的影响，提高刺激资金的有效性。） • Eliminate tax havens, tax evasion, transfer pricing & currency transaction tax – to dampen speculation. • 应采取适当的政策，减少避税天堂、逃税、转嫁价格和货币 交易税-打击投机行为
Union view 会的观点 • What should be the objectives of International financial markets ? expand the casino in more orderly fashion OR to channel resources into real economy? Greater regulation of financial markets so that these serve the objectives of real economy • 国际金融市场的目标是什么？有序扩大这种“赌场经济”，还 是增加实体经济的资源？ • What else? ? ? • 其他
ILO Approach 国际劳 组织的建议 • Tripartite dialogue with social partners - should play a key role in addressing the economic crisis & developing policy responses at national level. • 社会伙伴三方对话-解决危机，制定应对政策 Pre-condition for effective social dialogue: ? ? ? 有效三方对话的前提条件 ILO promotes Global Jobs Pact 国际劳 组织提倡全球就业契约
ILO’s Global Jobs Pact 全球就业契约 Framework for national & international policies aimed at: 国家和国际政策框架的目标在于： – A global economic recovery with job creation and the provision of social protection to working people and their families at its core; – 全球经济复苏，增加就业，提供社会保护 – Stronger regulatory framework for the financial sector; – 加强对金融业的监管 – Efficient and well-regulated trade and markets; – 提高贸易和市场的效率和监管
ILO’s Global Jobs Pact 全球就业契约 Policy options identified include: 政策选择可包括： – Employment incentive public investment; – 刺激就业公共投资 – Special employment programmes – 特殊就业计划 – Support for enterprises – 支持企业发展 – Broadening social protection and minimum wages – 扩大社会保护，提高最低 资
Atleast one lesson for Asia 给亚洲的警示 • Over dependence on exports & western markets Almost 60% of final demand for Asian goods comes from developed countries. Exports account for about 47% of developing Asia’s output 对出口和西方市场的过于依赖：亚洲商品60%出口到发达国家。 出口占亚洲发展中国家总量 47%。 • For economic & social stability at home - Asian countries need development & expansion of domestic markets – this implies Decent Work & respect for fundamental labour standards. • 国内的经济和社会稳定—亚洲国家需发展国内市场，促进体 面劳动，遵守基本劳 标准。
Sources & further readings 参考书目 • Wall Street Meltdown Primer – by Walden Bello, published on Friday, Sept 26, 2008 by Foreign Policy in Focus • Talking Points: Economic Meltdown – by Chuck Collins, Oct 27, 2008, Institute for Policy Studies (www. ips-dc. org) • How bailouts Dwarf other global crisis spending – by Andersen, Cavanagh & Redman, Institute of Policy Studies, Nov 24, 2008 • Voices from the South – Impact of the financial crisis on developing countries – Institute of Development Studies, Nov 2008 (www. ids. ac. uk/go/financial-crisis-impact) • ILO Global Employment Trends Report 2009 • IUF (www. iuf. org): The G 20 and After–Questions for Labour, 15 Dec 2008 • Source: Financial Times, Asia and the crisis: Unlucky numbers By David Pilling, February 9 2009 http: //www. ft. com/cms/s/0/65599 c 38 -f 6 e 1 -11 dd 8 a 1 f-0000779 fd 2 ac. html • RECOVERING FROM THE CRISIS: A GLOBAL JOBS PACT - http: //www. ilo. org/wcmsp 5/groups/public/---ed_norm/--relconf/documents/meetingdocument/wcms_108456. pdf
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