f785fa97348a49da93af74c64eea44c8.ppt
- Количество слайдов: 43
GFNORTE: 4 Q 07 Results February, 2008 1
Contents 1. 4 Q 07 Overview. 2. Asset Quality. 3. Stock Metrics. 4. Final Considerations. 2
Yearly Recap CONSTANT MILLION PESOS 2006 2007 Net Income 6, 185 ROE 24. 9% 22. 6% ROA 2. 8% 2. 6% Net Interest Margin 7. 7% 7. 6% Performing Loan Growth 19% 32% Past Due Loan Ratio 1. 4% 1. 5% Stock Price 42. 25 7% 45. 08 Book Value 13. 42 22% 16. 42 P/BV 3. 15 11% 10% 6, 810 2. 75 3
Quarterly Net Income CONSTANT MILLION PESOS 1, 560 1, 685 1, 263 1, 018 4 Q 04 4 Q 05 4 Q 06 4 Q 07 4
Income Statement CONSTANT MILLION PESOS Change Qo. Q Yo. Y 4 Q 06 4 Q 07 2006 2007 Net Interest Income 3, 931 4, 881 15, 069 17, 384 24% 15% Non Interest Income 2, 010 1, 914 8, 072 7, 899 (5%) (2%) 1, 424 136 450 1, 666 164 83 5, 391 900 1, 782 6, 028 580 1, 292 17% 21% (82%) 12% (36%) (28%) Total Income 5, 941 6, 795 23, 141 25, 283 14% 9% Non Interest Expense 3, 395 3, 841 12, 931 14, 432 13% 12% Net Operating Income 2, 546 2, 954 10, 210 10, 851 16% 6% Provisions (341) (921) (1, 588) (2, 645) 170% 67% Non Operating Income, Net (12) 382 208 1, 867 3, 283% 798% Income Tax (756) (694) (3, 255) (3, 293) (8%) 1% 122 (36) 610 31 (130%) (95%) 1, 560 1, 685 6, 185 6, 810 8% 10% Service Fees Recovery FX and Trading Subs & Minority Interest Net Income 5
Comparable Results MILLION PESOS 2006 2007 Accounting Standards ‘ 07 Net Interest Income 14, 515 20% 17, 384 Non Interest Income 7, 185 10% 7, 899 Total Income 21, 700 17% 25, 283 Non Interest Expense 13, 157 10% 14, 432 Operating Profit 8, 534 27% 10, 851 6
Non Interest Expense CONSTANT BILLION PESOS 2006 Non Interest Expense 12. 9 2007 12% 14. 4 EFFICIENCY RATIO 56. 8% 55. 0% 56. 3% Accounting Changes 3. 4 pp 52. 9% 2005 2006 2007 7
Net Interest Margin vs CETES PERCENTAGE CETES 8. 6 8. 0 99% NIM 8. 5 7. 6 7. 5 7. 7 111 % 7. 1 7. 5 4 Q 05 7. 7 8. 2 7. 9 1 Q 06 7. 1 7. 0 2 Q 06 3 Q 06 7. 0 4 Q 06 1 Q 07 7. 1 7. 2 2 Q 07 3 Q 07 7. 4 4 Q 07 8
Core Deposits CONSTANT BILLION PESOS Deposits 4 Q 05 4 Q 06 4 Q 07 Demand 82 21% 99 13% 111 Time 43 30% 56 14% 64 Total 125 23% 154 13% 175 Mix Demand 66% 64% 63% Time 34% 36% 37% 100% 9
Performing Loan Portfolio CONSTANT BILLION PESOS 146 4 Q 06 193 175 3 Q 07 4 Q 07 Change Qo. Q Yo. Y 4 Q 06 3 Q 07 4 Q 07 Consumer 49 59 63 7% 29% Commercial 61 68 75 10% 23% Corporate 25 31 37 19% 47% Government 11 18 18 0% 60% Total 146 175 193 10% 32% 10
Performing Consumer Loan Portfolio CONSTANT BILLION PESOS 49 4 Q 05 59 63 3 Q 07 4 Q 07 Change Qo. Q Yo. Y 4 Q 06 3 Q 07 4 Q 07 Mortgage Loans 28 33 36 9% 31% Car Loans 7 7 7 3% 10% Credit Card Loans 10 13 14 9% 41% Payroll Loans 5 6 6 1% 20% Consumer 49 59 63 7% 29% 11
Consumer Loans ORIGINATION IN CONSTANT BILLION PESOS MORTGAGE PAYROLL & PERSONAL AUTO 12. 0 11. 0 7. 4 4. 7 2005 2006 2007 2005 5. 3 6. 7 6. 3 5. 6 4. 3 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007 12
Credit Cards THOUSANDS OF NEW CARDS 709 518 263 190 2004 2005 2006 2007 13
Credit Card: 2007 Achievements Increase in risk adjusted profitability. New products: ü Mujer Banorte / Inmediata / Platinum / Empuje Negocios. Ya Bájale: record level of balances transferred. ü Ps $3. 0 billion pesos (+47% Yo. Y). Diversification of distribution channels. Development of existing portfolio. Campaigns to promote usage and commercial alliances. 14
Capitalization Ratio PERCENTAGE 2005 2006 2007 Tier 1 13. 3% 12. 2% 10. 2% Tier 2 2. 8% 5. 1% 3. 6% TOTAL 16. 1% 17. 4% 13. 8% Percentage Tier 1 83% 70% 74% 15
Credit Ratings International Rating Outlook Notches Over Investment Grade Standard & Poor’s BBB- Positive = Sep-07 Fitch BBB Positive +1 Sep -07 Moody’s Baa 1 Stable +2 Dec-07 Agency Date 16
Subsidiaries 17
Recovery Banking NET INCOME IN MILLION PESOS 2005 Total 2006 2007 917 715 766 AUM IN BILLION PESOS % 2006 2007 Loan Book 54. 4 51. 8 (5%) Assets 5. 2 6. 7 29% Projects 1. 3 2. 4 85% 18
Long Term Savings NET INCOME IN MILLION PESOS 2005 2006 2007 422 545 388 Total AFORE ANNUITIES ROE: 16% INSURANCE ROE: 24% ROE: 20% 323 224 148 136 53 2005 168 82 2006 2007 170 2006 2007 50 2005 2006 2007 2005 19
Other Finance Companies NET INCOME IN MILLION PESOS 2005 2006 2007 197 256 271 Total FACTORING LEASING ROE: 23% 73 92 107 WHAREHOUSING ROE: 30% 122 ROE: 13% 140 86 15 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007 11 15 2006 2007 20
Other Subsidiaries NET INCOME IN MILLION PESOS ROE: 33% BROKERAGE MICROLENDING 288 191 80 2005 2006 2007 (20) 23 2006 2007 (30) 21
Banorte USA MILLION DOLLARS 2007 2006 INB Performing Loans 779 Net Interest Margin 4. 6% Net Income (70%) 12. 5 11% 25% 974 4. 4% 11% 26% 15. 8 Efficiency 46. 4% 41. 6% ROE 19. 4% 21. 5% 22
Business Indicators ü Customers ü AUM ü Infrastructure 23
Customers MILLIONS 12. 7 9. 2 Insurance 2. 4 Afore 2. 4 3. 2 2. 9 Bank 3. 9 2004 3. 3 6. 2 4 2007 24
Assets Under Management BILLION PESOS 596 58 395 Long Term Savings Brokerage House 181 34 119 357 Bank 242 2004 2007 25
Infrastructure Distribution Channel 2006 2007 Branches 994 6% 1, 051 ATM´s 3, 140 17% 3, 674 POS 21, 453 30% 27, 857 Employees 15, 929 9% 17, 348 26
2. Asset Quality 27
Asset Quality CONSTANT BILLION PESOS 4 Q 06 3 Q 07 4 Q 07 Total Loan Portfolio 150 179 197 Past Due Loans 2. 1 2. 7 2. 9 Loan Loss Reserves 3. 7 3. 6 3. 8 PAST DUE LOAN RATIO 1. 4% 4 Q 06 1. 5% RESERVE COVERAGE 172% 132% 3 Q 07 4 Q 06 131% 3 Q 07 4 Q 07 28
Reserve Creation from Loan Book CONSTANT MILLION PESOS 2007 % of Total 1, 229 44 Other Consumer 696 25 Mortgage 539 19 Corporate / Commercial 279 10 Government 76 2 2, 818 100 Credit Card Total 69% of total 29
Loan Book Performance 2007 Loan Growth ROE Net Credit Losses Credit Card 41% 31% 6. 5% Other Consumer 14% 38% 3. 6% Mortgage 31% 16% 0. 8% Corporate / Commercial 30% 21% (0. 2%) Government 60% 19% 0% Total 32% 23% 0. 9% 30
3. Stock Metrics 31
Stock Performance 2004 -2007 Banorte: 483 IPC: 341 Inbursa: 244 32
Stock Turnover: Daily Volume MILLION DOLLARS 20. 3 13. 9 10. 3 % 4. 9 72 R= CAG 2. 3 2004 2005 2006 2007 33
Market Capitalization MILLION DOLLARS 7, 858 8, 341 4, 229 3, 174 % = 48 R CAG 1, 751 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 34
Lat. Am Bank’s Performance 2007 RETURNS IN DOLLARS 55% 44% 46% 34% Banco Macro Banco de Chile (4%) 7% 11% Banorte Bancolombia Inbursa Itaú Unibanco Bradesco (23%) 35
Lat. Am Valuations BILLION DOLLARS 13. 0 12. 5 Bradesco 54. 6 12. 0 GFNorte 7. 9 P/E 11. 5 Santander - Chile 8. 7 Banco do Brasil 41. 7 11. 0 Unibanco 18. 3 10. 5 10. 0 Itaú 55. 1 Bancolombia 6. 2 9. 5 2. 0 2. 1 2. 2 2. 3 2. 4 2. 5 2. 6 2. 7 2. 8 2. 9 3. 0 P/BV 36
4. Final Considerations 37
Financial Penetration BANK CREDIT TO PRIVATE SECTOR AS % OF GDP 38% +23 pp 26% 14% 10% 8% 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 10% 12% 15% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 38
Lat. Am Comparison CREDIT TO PRIVATE SECTOR AS % OF GDP 72% 34% 33% 24% 22% 9% 15% Chile Colombia Average Brazil Other Bank Mexico 13% Peru Argentina 39
Challenges 2008 Efforts to reduce reserve requirements. ü 80 new branches + 20 refurbishments. 600 new ATM’s + 330 substitutions. ü SME’s Improve origination & follow up process. ü Infrastructure ü ü Asset Quality 12, 000 POS’s. ü Low bancarization levels. ü New secular growth story. ü Specialized products & sales force. 40
Challenges 2008 Banorte USA Emphasis on payrolls. ü Seek new alliances. Middle & lower income segments. ü Calibration of business model. ü Microlending Increased loan demand. ü Alternate channels ü ü Government banking Emphasis on profitability & asset quality. ü Greater revenue synergies. ü New products. 41
Medium Term Challenges Adequate reading of uncertain environment. Asset quality & profitability. Investment: ü Competitive infrastructure. ü Cost containment. Alternate distribution channels. Funding costs and capitalization. 42
43
f785fa97348a49da93af74c64eea44c8.ppt