Germany Scenarios vk. com/bundesnachrichtendienst
foreword
success World power Powerless Germany Regional power failure Permanent UN SC membership Uncertainties Germany Minor EU power weak Economy strong
Powerless Germany Scenarios Security Council Economy The project of European integration has failed due to irreconcilable contradictions between members. Political collapse in Germany. Inter- and inner-party collisions. Old parties lose their influence, new radical parties emerge, political factionalism grows. Growing popularity of nationalistic, eurosceptic and antiglobalist ideas leads to political isolation of Germany. Demographic crisis: decreasing and ageing population. Failure of multiculturalism: growing tension between ethnical minorities and German people, crisis of national identity. Failure of welfare state model: growing social differentiation and escalating tension between reach and poor. Widening gap between eastern and western parts of the country, no consolidation. Risk of division into two parts.
Minor EU power Scenarios Security Council Economy EU still exists and acts as a solid power on the world arena. US-oriented external policy of Germany undermined the confidence of EUstates in its ability to promote common European interests. Political deadlock: no consensus between leading parties and within them, which entails internal divisions and factionalism in parties. Unsuccessful economic and financial policy of German government leads to growing budget deficit Germany is fully dependent on foreign import (primarily of energy resources). Increasing social differentiation The conception of multiculturalism doesn’t function. Ethnic, cultural and religious tension is growing. Problem of national identity is persistent. Increasing popularity of nationalistic ideas. Formal UN SC permanent membership and NATO-dependent foreign policy
Regional power Scenarios Security Council Economy EU has mainly resolved financial and economic problems and is able to act as a solid power. Germany is the leading power within the EU, it is able to promote common European interests in the world community, but depends on the authority of the community. Germany strives to maintain European security in all spheres (energy security, military independence, stable economy, safe environment) and promotes cooperation between EU-members in this direction. German government carries out successful policy, enabling assimilation of immigrants and successful implementation of welfare state model, lessening thereby social tensions in the society. Germany is working toward promoting common European identity in the EU member states Germany develops innovative sector of economy, which helps it to maintain high export rate and stable economy growth. Germany prioritizes building its economic influence within the EU over seeking more global political clout through the Security Council.
World power Scenarios Security Council Economy USA loses its dominant position in the world. The process of European integration has been successful; EU is a solid power and an influential actor on the world arena. Germany is a political and economical center of the EU, it manages to become a permanent Security Council member and thus is able to promote common European as well as its own national interests with more efficiency. Germany is seen as a model for all European countries; the confidence of EUmembers in Germany is unquestionable. In Germany political consensus and stability are maintained. Stable economy growth is secured by the effective governmental policy. Germany successfully promotes energy security. The sphere of innovations develops steadily. With dollar losing its position as the world’s main currency, Euro replaces it as the international currency. Germany has been able to implement the model of multiculturalism thus promoting assimilation of immigrants and minimization of ethno-cultural tension.
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