GCP Implementation Plan 1 Patterns and Variability 2

GCP Implementation Plan 1. Patterns and Variability 2. Mechanisms & Feedbacks 1. 1. Enhancing Observations 2. 1. Integrated C Sink Mechanisms • Multiple mechanisms and interactions • Coordination & Standardization 1. 2. Model-Data Fusion 2. 2. Emergent Properties C-Climate • Paleo and Forward • Model-data fusion techniques 2. 3. Emergent Properties C-C-Hum. 1. 3 Carbon Budgets • Methodologies, Sector Analyses • New modeling approaches 3. Future & C Management 3. 1. Mitigation Options • Control points land, ocean, FF 3. 2. C Management & Sustainabil. • Portfolios and sustainable develop. 3. 3. Regional/Urban

The Conceptual Framework Perceptions of human welfare Changes in institutions & technol. Atmospheric Carbon Fossil Carbon Industry Transport Systems Land Use Ecosystem Disturbances Systems Physiology Unperturbed C Cycle Perturbed C Cycle Human Response Solubility Pump Biological Pump Ocean-use Systems Terrestrial Carbon Ocean/Coastal Carbon Climate Change and Variabil.

International Project and Affiliate Offices IOC/SCOR-CO 2 Panel Paris, France Carbo. Europe, Germany GHG CA, Italy NIES, Tsukuba Japan (April 2004) Beijing, China USA Inter. Proj. Off. Affiliate Off. Proposed only CSIRO, Canberra Australia

Scientific Steering Committee Michael Apps, Canada Michael Raupach, Australia Alain Chedin, France Robert Dickinson, USA Cheng-Tung Arthur Chen, China, Oran Young, USA Peter Cox, UK Ellen Druffel, USA Executive Directors: Christopher Field, USA Pep Canadell, Australia Penelope Canan, Japan (starting Patricia Romero Lankao, Mexico Louis Philipe Lebel, Thailand April 2004) Annan Partwardhan, India Affiliated Offices: Monika Rhein, Germany EU-Carbo. Europe: Christopher Sabine, USA Annette Freibauer, Germany Riccardo Valentini, Italy SCOR-IOC Panel on Ocean CO 2: Yoshiki Yamagata, Japan Maria Hood, France Co-Chairs:

Portfolio of Activities A few examples

Coupling Humans-Biogeochem Portfolio of Activities: Overview Co. P 9 -Synthesis Book Urban Dev. -Carbon Institute Data Assimilation: Data Wk Publication Science Framework Regional T. C Budgets Confer. State-of-the-Art Synthesis Wk Ocean Coordination Wk Annual SSC Meeting Terrestrial Sinks Wk Research Institute Data Assimilation Land Use-Carbon SI 2002 2003 2004

International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project IOCCP - http: //ioc. unesco. org/ioccp/index. htm [with the IOC-SCOR CO 2 Panel] • Synthesize large-scale ocean carbon observation activities and plans. Promote acceptance of standardized measurement techni • • Integration of large-scale carbon studies into international research programs • Improved accessibility to international carbon data sets Volunteer Observing Ships Repeated Sections • 13 -15 January 2003, Paris, France International Workshop on Ocean Carbon Research and Observation Activities. Contact: Maria Hood, Chris Sabine • 10 -14 March 2003, Hazaki Town, Ibaraki, Japan International p. CO 2 sensor intercomparison experiment. Contact: Y. Nojiri • 14 -17 January 2004, Tsukuba, Japan Workshop on Ocean Surface p. CO 2, Data Integration and Database Development. Contact: Y. Nojiri

Model-Data Fusion Research Institutes (2 weeks lon and focused workshops Research, Tool developmen Capacity Building http: //dataportal. ucar. edu/CDA S/ http: //www. fao. org/gtos/meet. S [Colorad HE. html 1. Atmospheric Data-Model Assimilation 2. Terrestrial Model-Data Fusion [Sheffield 2003] w/G 3. Synthesis processes intercomparsion [Austr 4. Ocean Data-Model Assimilation [2005] 5. Earth System Data-Model Assimilation [2006]

Integrated Terrestrial C Sink Mechanisms Carbon Storage in the Biosphere With IPCC Cold ecosystems Forest conversion CO 2 fertilization Plant growth x x Warm ecosystems Temperature a. CO 2 concentration Soil respiration x Temperature N fertilization Land use Fire x Nitrogen deposition Fire Suppression GCP 2003

Integrated Synthesis Toward CO 2 Stabilization: Issues, Strategies, and Consequences SCOPE-GCP Synthesis Activity Book Presentation: COP 9 -Milan, Dec 03 Topics: 1. current status and past trends of the carbon cycle; Publication: February 2004 2. vulnerabilities in the carbon cycle in the 21 st Century; 3. scenarios, targets, gaps and costs 4. a portfolio of carbon management options; 5. CO 2 stabilization pathways and sustainable Earth Sys

Vulnerability of carbon pools in the earth system Grubber et al. 2004 (from SCOPE-GCP rapid assessment) • • Compile a catalogue of vulnerable C pools and their global distribution. Quantify the extent of these vulnerable pools and their C content. Assess the processes affecting the balance and release of C (incl. “thresholds) Analyze the impacts of C release from vulnerable pools on a[CO 2] and climate NCEAS proposal 2004, submi

Advanced Institute on Urbanization, Emission, and the Global Carbon Cycle START-Packard Foundation NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, 4 – 22 August 2003 Integrating carbon management into development strategies of cities Establishing a network of regional case studies • Asia Pacific (funded) • Central-South America (funded) Source: Diane Pataki C Consequences of Regional Development Pathw

Workshop Series (2004 – 2007): Coupling the human dimensions to the climate-carbo Title: Coupling biophysical and human dimensions of the carbon cycle. Goal: To identify and develop key methods, models, process knowledge and interactions necessary to treat the global carbon cycle as a coupled carbon -climate-human system. Topics: • Dynamical-system and gametheory approaches. • Models of Intermediate Complexity • Integrative Assessment Models • Institutional dimensions • Technological opportunities and constraints • Conceptual Frameworks • Scenarios-based approaches In preparation

Products

Synthesis Products Canadell J, Zhou G, Noble I (eds. ) (2002) Land use/cover change effects on terrestrial carbon cycle in the Asian Pacific region. Science in China. Special Issue 45 Supp. : 1 -141. GCP (2003) Science framework and implementation. Canadell J, Dickinson R, Hibbart K, Young O, Raupach M (eds. ). ESSP Rept. No. 1; GCP Report No. 1, Canberra, p. 69 Field C, Raupach M (eds. ) (2004) The Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Humans, Climate and the Natural World. Island Press, Washington D. C. (in press) Canadell J, Ciais P, Cox P, Heimann P (eds. ) (2004) Quantifying Terrestrial Carbon Sinks. Climatic Change. Special Issue (in press)

All publications • • • Canadell J, Ciais P, Cox P, Heimann M (2003) Quantifying terrestrial carbon sinks. Special issue in Climatic Change (in preparation) Field C, Raupach M, editors (2003) Towards CO 2 stabilization: Issues, Strategies, and Consequences, Field C, Raupach M (Eds. ). Island Press, Washington D. C. (in press) Global Carbon Project (2003). The GCP Science framework and Implementation. Canadell JG, Dickson R, Raupach M, Young O (Eds). Earth Science System, Partnership (ESS) Report Series No. 1, GCP Report Series No 1, Canberra, pp. 69 Sabine C, Hood M (2003) Ocean carbon scientists organize to acheive better coordination, cooperation. EOS 84: 218 -220 Canadell J, Zhou G, Noble I, editors (2002) Land use/cover change effects on terrestrial carbon cycle in the Asian Pacific region. Science in China. Special Issue 45 Supp. : 1 -141. Hibbard K, Steffen W, Benedict S, Busalachi T, Canadell J, Dickinson R, Raupach M, Smith B, Tilbrook B, Velling P, Young O (2001) The carbon challenge. An IGBP-IHDP-WCRP project. Stockholm. Pre-project products • Schimel DS, House JI, Hibbard KA, Bousquet P, Ciais P, Peylin P, Braswell BH, Apps MA, Baker D, Bondeau A, Canadell J, Churkina G, Cramer W, Denning AS, Field CB, Friedlingstein P, Goodale C, Heimann M, Houghton RA, Melillo JM, Moore III B, Murdiyarso D, Noble I, Pacala SW, Prentice IC, Raupach MR, Rayner PJ, Scholes RJ, Steffen WL, Wirth C (2001) Recent patterns and mechanisms of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems. Nature 414: 169 -172. • Gupta J, Lebel L, Velling P, Young O, IHDP Secretariat (2001) IHDP Global Carbon cycle research. Bonn, IHDP. • Falkowski P, RJ Scholes, E. Boyle, J. Canadell, D. Canfield, J. Elser, N. Gruber, K. Hibbard, P. Högberg, S. Linder, F. T. Mackenzie, B. Moore III, T. Pederson, Y. Rosenthal, S. Seitzinger, V. Smetacek, W. Steffen [The IGBP Carbon Working Group] (2000) The Global Carbon Cycle: A Test of our Knowledge of Earth as a System. Science 290: 291 -296. • Canadell J. G, Mooney H. A. , Baldocchi D. D. , Berry J. A. , Ehleringer J. R. , Field C. B. , Gower S. T. , Hollinger D. Y. , Hunt J. E. , Jackson R. B. , Running S. W. , Shaver G. R. , Steffen W. , Trumbore S. E. , Valentini R. , Bond B. Y. (2000). Carbon Metabolism of the Terrestrial Biosphere: a multi-technique approach for improved understanding. Ecosystems 3: 115 -130. • Steffen, W, Noble, I, Canadell, J, Apps, M, Schulze, E-D, Jarvis, PG, Baldocchi, D, Ciais, P, Cramer, W, Ehleringer, J, Farquhar, G, Field, CB, Ghazi, A, Gifford, R, Heimann, M, Houghton, R, Kabat, P, Körner, C, Lambin, E, Linder, S, Mooney, HA, Murdiyarso, D, Post, WM, Prentice, IC, Raupach, MR, Schimel, DS, Shvidenko, A and Valentini, R (1998) The terrestrial carbon cycle: Implications for the Kyoto protocol. Science 280: 1393 -1394.

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