Gas Customer Forum Meeting Place your chosen image

Gas Customer Forum Meeting Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. Monday 7 th February 2011, Energy Networks Association, 6 th Floor Dean Bradley House, 52 Horseferry Road, London. SW 1 P 2 AF

Operational Overview Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line.

Mean Composite Weather Variables – October 2010 to January 2011 3

Mean Composite Weather Variables – December 4

National Composite Weather Variables – 2010/11 5

Demands Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line.

Highest Gas Demands Date Daily Gas Demand 1 08/01/10 465. 46 2 20/12/10 464. 79 3 02/12/10 456. 32 4 21/12/10 455. 68 5 01/12/10 455. 19 6 07/01/10 454. 12 7 03/12/10 453. 25 8 07/01/03 449. 02 9 07/12/10 448. 88 10 06/01/10 447. 04 ¾ Six of the top 10 daily Gas Demands ever recorded occurred in December 2010. Christmas Day Demand (mcm) 1 ¾ 2010 Christmas Day Gas Demand was the highest ever recorded Year 2010 393. 5 2 2009 348. 9 3 2000 337. 7 4 1999 335. 1 5 2001 333. 8 7

Power Generation 1 st October 2010 to 31 st January 2011 Generation data compiled from half hourly data from http: //www. bmreports. com/bsp_home. htm 8

Gas Demand Breakdown 1 st October 2010 to 29 th. January 2011 Demands in December above Seasonal Cold Levels. Several days above 450 mcm/d Gas Balancing Alerts issued for Gas Day 20 th & 21 st December 9

GBA Trigger Vs Demand December 2010 10

Forecast Demand Gas Day 20 th December 2010 11

Forecast Demand Gas Day 21 st December 2010 12

Supplies Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line.

Gas Supply Breakdown 1 st October 2010 to 29 th January 2011 IUK moves to import mode on 26 th Nov LRS withdrawals LNG Flows 14

Storage Stocks - UK From 1 st October 2010 to 30 th January 2011 15

Storage Stocks - EU From 1 st October 2010 to 1 st February 2011 16

Prices & Balancing Actions Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line.

System Prices [Comparison to Previous Year] 1 st October 2010 to 31 st January 2011 Gay Day 9 th & 10 Jan. Significant Supply Losses 18

Transporter Energy Traded on the OCM Buys and Sells by Month From January 2010 to January 2011 19

Days of Default SMP Prices From 1 st January 2010 to 1 st January 2011 20

Gas Balancing Alerts Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line.

GBA Trigger Level - Reminder ¾ Combination of central case assumption re NSS and storage deliverability ¾ Starts using winter outlook assumption for NSS ¾ Storage changes daily based on stock levels ¾ NSS reviewed monthly in light of experience 22

Occurrences: Data to 20>400 mcm days to date 23

UKCS 24

Norway 25

LNG 26

BBL 27

IUK 28

Storage 29

Average Supplies 30

Summary ¾ NSS reviewed to reflect actual ¾ Done monthly as minimum ¾ Would be done ad hoc if significant & sustained change ¾ GBA not issued within day if demand within day exceeds trigger level ¾ If Day ahead GBA issued – the GBA remains in place for the whole Gas Day irrespective of whether the Demand Forecast drops below the Trigger Level. 31