FUTUROLOGY: A BROAD SPECTRUM LOOK FROM A DISTANCE
HUMAN PERSPECTIVES S D I S T A N T Very Few Decisions are concerned with future times and distant locations. Third generation of children & beyond in distant nations P A Most Decisions are concerned with present day local issues. C E L O C A L My children’s life & times (perhaps grand children) My life & times PRESENT FUTURE TIME
THE PROPHETS The First Futurologists used religious paradigms THESIS Utopias Scenarios of a desirable future and the blessing of the gods A B C D SYNTHESIS Somewhere In Between The reality of life somewhere between the extremes E ANTITHESIS Dystopias F Scenarios of an undesirable future and the curse of the gods The Old World gives way to a New World thru Apocalyptic Events
THE SCIENCE OF FUTUROLOGY The Goal 1. Describe the future 2. Explain the future 3. Predict the future 4. Control the future Paradigms (Available Resources) 1. Multidiscipline Science Observations 2. Statistical Interpolation Databases 3. Computer Modeling 4. Educated Decision Making The Product
THE END PRODUCT A MULTI SCENARIO VISION OF THE FUTURE 1. There is a Best Possible World— 2. There is a Worst Possible World— 3. There is Somewhere in Between— Utopia Dystopia Synthesis Somewhere in between is the grey zone (the mixing of black and white, the worst & the best) 4. Achievement of priority goals 5. Avoidance of worst case scenarios 6. A future of our own choosing
THE PERSON Noon The Stages of Life Morning 1. Childhood 2. Young Adult 3. Middle Adult 4. Mature Adult Twilight With each stage is a person Is presented with a task (a challenge).
THE PERSON Maslow’s Hierarchy of Need 1. Physiology 2. Safety 3. Belonging 4. Esteem (Achievement) 5. Self Actualization Aspects of Life 1. Health 2. Wealth 3. Relationships 4. Vocation 5. Re-Creation Culture Religion
THE PERSON Resources for the Challenges of Life The Person as Individual Mind Individual Body Individual Spirit The Person’s Support Community Mind Community Body Community Spirit The Human Collective Mind Collective Body Collective Spirit
THE KARDASHEV SCALE Where are we going? Type 0 Type I Geographically Located Civilizations Global Civilization Planetary Energy Harnessed (c 10^16 W) Type II Interplanetary Civilization Solar Energy Harnessed (c 10^26 W) Type III Interstellar Civilization Galactic Energy Harnessed (c 10^36 W) Type IV and beyond Type VII Intergalactic Civilization Harnessing the Energy of Super-galactic Structures (c 10^46 W<)
THE CYCLE OF PROGRESS The Malthusian Tension: Moving through Crisis to Paradigm CRISIS See Hubbert’s Peak… CRISIS
THE SEQUENCE OF TECHNOLOGY The introduction and progress of new technology follows a predictable sequence 1. Need 2. Invention/Discovery 3. Technical Novelty 4. Isolated Innovative use 5. Social Integration and Reorientation 6. Social Resistance 7. Social Dependency
RELATIONSHIPS LOCAL Personal Family Community Regional National International Global Beyond REGIONAL NATIONAL INTERNAT’L GLOBAL BEYOND
THE COMMUNITY A Person’s Place in the Global Village GLOBALIZED ECUMETROPITAN MOSAIC Spirit of Service Family*** MARKET SHORTCOMINGS MANAGEMENT Community Military-Industrial Complex Legal-Media-Political Complex Aerospace-Technology Complex Agribusiness-Subsidy Complex Monopolistic Drive Complex Gov’t representing the will of the people of, by and for the people Local National Regional Religious & Cultural Inst Universities Socially Responsible Business Privately Owned Enterprise Publicly Owned Corporations Globally Regulated Internat’l Bus Global Human Rights Equal Opportunity Economic Equitability Community Empowerment
THE NETWORK EXPRESS LOCAL REG’L NAT’L INTERNAT’L GLOBAL BEYOND (Point to Point) Grids AIR Aeroplane Rotorwing Aeroship LAND Rail—People Movers Road Overland Tunneled SEA Surface ship Surface Action Craft Subsurface SPACE Space Plane Suborbital Orbital Lunar Interplanetary COMMUNICATION POWER DELIVERY TRANSPORTATION
MEGASCALE TRANSPORTING A Transatlantic Tunnel
THE CHALLENGE VOCATION Q U The Challenge of Limited Resources Malthusian Projection using Hubbert’s Peak Aggregate Demand Over Time A Technology increases aggregate supply to meet growing demand N T I T Y Aggregate Supply Over Time TIME Can technology Continue an increase in supply, as rapidly as humans increase demand?
HEALTH 1 Prevention G Life-style R E Diet A Exercise T E Stress Inflamatories S HEALTHCARE SERVICES Detection Diagnostics Blood screening Bio-field scanning Gene mapping Treatment Outpatient Inpatient T E F F E C T O N H E A L T H Infectious Diseases Biomedical Information Computer modeling Health Profiling Accidental Injury Healthcare Services Effectiveness Availability Affordability The average life expectancy for people in the US is 77, in Japan its 83, the world average is 63. In the US, 80% of all healthcare dollars are spent on end of life care … The next greatest percentage is noninfectious, lifestyle illness care…
HUMAN GENERATIONS Number of children/person will decrease 2100 2070 Parent age at time of first child will increase 2145 2020 2110 2075 1990 1900 2170 2050 1970 2050 2000 2200+ 2100 Life expectancy will Increase 2200
TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE Crop product variety expansion Genetic modification Drought/pest resistant Climate/soil adapting Weather Modification Long range weather prediction Improved Mechanization Crop health monitors Soil quality sensors Electronic pest control Robotics Enhanced Irrigation Water table mapping Desalination Aquatic Agriculture Ocean farming/management Hydroponics farming Mega Farm districts Soil Conservation Local Temp/Humidity enhancement Farming Cooperatives Soil Science Top soil manufacturing Micromanaged fertilization Micromanaged water delivery
HEALTH 2 TRENDS IN BIOMEDICAL Surgery Remote Precision Automated Particle beam & Laser Directed radiation Micro managed drug deliver Nutrition Science Diet Fabricat’n Organic Synthetic Genetic Engineering, at Genotype phenotype level… Genetic Normalcy Tissue cloning For grafting, replacement, and transplant, Bioengineering for prosthetics, organ, gland enhancement, physio-automat’n & metabolic replication Improved revival & resuscitation technologies Intervention
CITIES 1 (wealth & safety) COMMUNITY/URBAN ARCHITECTURE Tiered living Wireless Sky City Sky Scrapers Multi-storied Ground Level Underground Subunderground Below Subunderground Wired
CITIES 2 Orbital Projection Laser Projection Aeroship Projection COMMUNITY/URBAN ARCHITECTURE Tiered living Sky Cities Sky Scrapers Laser Projection Wireless Multi-storied Ground Level Underground Subunderground Below Subunderground Under Ground Cable Optics
SKY CITIES
Oceanopolis Island Cities Floating Cities Surface Subsurface CITIES 3
CITIES 4 Wilderness Nature Preserve Resources Wildlife Carbon Sink Agricultural Park-Recreation Undesignated Mixed Urban Greater Urban Metropolis Megalopolis Ecumenopolis Population Grid
ARTIFICIAL ISLANDS
UNDERSEA HABITATS AND CITIES
SELF ACTUALIZATION & VALUES CLARIFICATION (Re-creation) SOCIO—POLITICAL AGENDAS 1. The Conservative Approach a. Prioritizes stability b. Resists changes which may undermines stability 2. The Progressive Approach a. Prioritizes an ideal b. Advocates for changes that may lead to ideal 3. Attitudes a. Militants—”Conservative Reactionaries” b. Radicals—”Leftist Liberals” c. Middle of the Roads—”Passionless Jelly Bellies”
REACHING A TYPE 1 CIVILIZATION Harnessing the Energy of a Planet * Biomass Fuels Agricultural Revolution Functioning Civilization Type 0 Open Fire, ‘Beast of Burden’ * Fossil Fuels Type 0. 5 * Non Sustainable Alternative Fuels Type 0. 7 Chemical Reaction Based Industrial Revolution (coal) Hyper Industrial (Petroleum, Natural Gas) Post Industrial, Service Economy Nuclear Fission Fuels Non-Chemical Reaction Based, Hydro Electric Conversion Non-renewable Energy Geo-Thermal Conversion * Globally Sustainable Energy Eco-Industrial, Recyclable Economy Nuclear Fusion Waste Free, Solar Energy Conversion Renewable Energy Wind Energy Conversion Type 1. 0
MEGASCALE ENERGY
CLIMATE ENGINEERING
PROJECT CONSTELLATION: PERMANENT MOON STATION A transfer point for interplanetary transports
THE WORLD 1 + Saharan Outback + + Central Asian Outback Siberian Outback + + + + W Pacific Habitats North Am West Pacific Habitats Population 12 -15 Billion & holding Australian Outback Mega Scaled Terraforming Projects (7) GEN Grid—GTN Rail World Heritage Preservation Areas (7) Central Desert Energy Zones (4) Space Ports (11)
THE WORLD 2 Halo-Synchronous Orbit Sub-Synchronous Orbit Suborbital Lunar Express Real Time Integrated Suborbital LTA Fleets Real Time Integrated Satellite Constellations Real time synchronized Earth Systems Watch…
REACHING FOR A TYPE 2 CIVILIZATION Harnessing the Energy of a Star ROBONAUTS
SPACE ELEVATOR Present cost to launch = $10, 000 / lb Desired cost to launch < $ 1, 000 / lb Air Travel cost < $ 200 / lb
Why go into space? Concentration of resources, (e. g. metal content to waste ratio) is >10 to 100 times that of earth. Technology can make resource extraction from space cost effective. THE SOLAR SYSTEM Venus Jupiter (61) Solar Panel Array for Climate Control Energy Conversion Saturn (48) Earth Neptune (28) Mars Asteroid Belt Uranus (14) Kuiper Belt Pluto Quaoar Sedna Xena Others 40 AU’s 3. 72 E+09 mi @25 k mph (0. 04%c) 160, 000 hrs @65 m mph (10%c) 61 hrs Centaur Belt Alpha Centauri 280, 645 AU’s
MEGASCALE CLIMATE ENGINEERING Fleet of >100, 000 Solar Panels for Climate Control and Energy Conversion
REACHING FOR A TYPE 3 CIVILIZATION Harnessing the Energy of a Galaxy Project Orion: Interstellar Probes Speed of present orbital (s)= 0. 004% c Speed for interstellar probe= 10. 0% c
THE CHALLENGE Current rate of consumption Currently we have the following to invest exceeds Earth System 1. 6, 000 Bn Tons of Atmosphere capacity for regeneration 2. 100 Bn km^3 of water 3. 150 Mn km^2 of land 4. 75, 000 Quads of energy (non-renewable) 5. 6. 5 Bn people These need to propel us into a future where 1. First 100 thousand years was 50 Bn human lives 2. Next 100 years will have another 50 Bn human lives 3. Average Global calories/day was = 1000 4. Desired calories/day will be = c 2000 5. Quads of energy used today = c 412 6. Quads consumed by 2100 = 1600+ Future rate of consumption is 7. Total population= c. 12 Bn people less than or equal to earth System regeneration capacity Science can tell us the what will happen for each scenario we create. It is we who must chose what scenario we wish to pursue…
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