Future water use and the challange of hydropower

“Future water use and the challange of hydropower development in western Balkan” 11 -13 February 2013, Ljubljana Workshop process Anita Pirc Velkavrh Strategic Futures European Environment Agency

Goals of the workshop: • Capacity building in understanding and learning methods applied in the project (explorative scenario building method and computer based vision building) • Strengthening the Eionet network in Western Balkan in forwardlooking issues related to water use and enhance their communication and exchange of practices and knowledge • Providing input information, gather stakeholders for EEA report Workshop outcomes: • Refined scenarios for WB: water availability, energy development, risks of floods and droughts, good water quality biodiversity, food and energy supply, health risk and conflicts. • Desired vision for hydropower use for electricity production. • Acquired knowledge on and practice of computer based vision building tool (“vision canvas”) for water sector.

24 October 2011 DAY 1

Day 1 Get to know better • each other • the region of Western Balkan with its challanges • Balkan scenarios developed in 2011

Scenarios on water availability in the context of climate change for Western Balkan until 2060 (produced 2011)

25 October 2011 DAY 2

Scenarios for Western Balkan until 2060 (produced 2011) : insights to water use, energy supply, security impacts

Day 2 Insights to scenarios 2011 • ETC ICM expert view on the region: – Water and economy, hydroenergy and some impacts to water • Refinment of scenarios – Water use, energy supply (incl HP), security implications – Case examples for each scenarios for specific areas (Neretva, Drina, Vardar, Tara, Danube, Sava) • Work in 4 groups, 4 faciliators and 4 helpers, in plenay (case studies)

Refinment of scenarios Each group will work on 1 scenarios (pay attention to the scenarios for your group) Remeber: • Axes of scenarios • Key characteristics and trigger points for scenarios (see background doc)

26 October 2011 DAY 3

VISION

Day 3 Vision building • develop your visions: - Your own vision for your country (on energy/HP) - Group vision for energy/HP in WB • using web tool (VISION CANVAS) adopted for this workshop • work in 4 groups, 2 facilitators from Alterra on tool use, 4 group faciliators • Feedback on experiance from using the tool in evaluation questioannair • Conclusions of the workshop

Mode of work Facilitated group work Countries focus: many presentations with countries experiances Posters with key information Creative work, personal contributions

See Rules of engagement When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed.

Thank you

How to deal with the future? • scenarios Zureck and Henrichs, 2007

WHY SCENARIOS? • • • Provide long term view Need for perpective Slow unfolding processes Limited understanding of systems, complex dynamic systems Water system includes and is influenced by many factors which are difficult to quantify • Holistic view on water systems • Input to decision making with alternatives and causual processes • Platform for conversation and consensus building Provide better understanding of focal issue and decisions in place or foreseen.

Qualitative scenarios Qualitative: words, images, stories + They are understandable, easy and interesting to communicate + They can represent complex systems + Represent views of different experts and stakeholders at the same time - They lack numerical estimates - Assumptions are not articulated clearly Combination qualitative and quantitative: Story and simulation approach

Gallopin and Raskin, 2002

EXAMPLE

Projections and quantitative modelling of future (trends) Produced by computer models + Assumptions are clearer than in qual. scenarios + They receive some degree of scientific scrutnity - To the users they can imply that we know more about the future than we actually do - Difficult to communicate to non-experts - Can’t capture phenomena which can’t be described by numbers (i. e. social) and complex environment - Limited in scope/selected pheomena are described

IEA long-term forecasts of annual additions: World European wind association, 2008

SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS What will be water availability in the western Balkan region in next decades? Identify driving forces Identify most important uncertainties Identify scenarios matrix S 1 T S 2 S 3 S S 4 E E P SESSION 2 SESSION 3 SESSION 4

SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS What will be the impacts of climate change on water availability in the western Balkan region in long term future (50 years)? Identify scenario logic S 1 S 2 S 3 S 4 SESSION 2

SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS What will be water availability in the western Balkan region in next decades? Description of scenarios S 1 S 2 S 3 S 4 SESSION 3

SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS Risks to water availability in the future S 1 S 2 S 3 S 4 SESSION 4

SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS What will be water availability in the western Balkan region in next decades? Storylines development DESCRIPITON of the future state S 1 S 2 By STEEP categories: S 2 S 1 Social issues Technological issues Economic issues Environmental issues: S 3 S 4 SESSION 3 • • • Water Climate change impacts general Political issues

SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS What is threatening availability of water in each scenario and what are the risks? S 1 S 2 Threats by STEEP categories: Social issues Ie. security S 3 S 4 Technological issues Economic issues Environmental issues: Ie. Climate change Political issues SESSION 4 S 1 THREATS 1. water pollution in urban areas 2. lack of water treatment infrastructure in coastal areas 3. lack of new technologies for irrigation RISKS 1. of lack of good sanitation water availability in urban areas in coast and big cities – HIGH risk 2. of lack of food (domestic crop production, more imports needed) – MEDIUM risk

SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS Goals identification to control risks S 1 risks RISKS 1. of lack of good sanitation water availability in urban areas in coast and big cities – HIGH risk 2. of lack of food (domestic crop production, more imports needed) – MEDIUM risk GOALS 1. Reduce water pollution 2. Secure food for domestic population 3. …. . SESSION 4

SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS Pathways to future goals S 1 GOAL 1 3 S 3 1 GOAL 1 3 3 NOW 2 3 NOW 3 SESSION 5

Implications and paths, warning indicators SESSION 5

SESSION 1 SCENARIO QUESTION Revise scenario question (Output 1): What are the possible sustainable energy pathways until 2050 in Eastern Europe?

DRIVING FORCES SESSION 2 Identify driving forces S T E E P Output 2 List of driving forces (in English and Russian)

UNCERTAINTIES SESSION 3 Identify most importan uncertainties Output 3 Four potential scenario axes (in English and Russian)

SCENARIO LOGIC SESSION 4 Identify most important uncertainties Output 4 Selected matrix (two scenario axes) (in English and Russian)

SCENARIO DESCRIPTION Output 5 4 Energy scenarios SESSION 4 Develop plausible scenarios S 1 S 2 S 3 S 4

SESSION 5 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS Implications Output 6 First identification of environmental impacts per scenario