FUTURE OF WORK IN A MILITARY PERSPECTIVE AI

’FUTURE OF WORK’ IN A MILITARY PERSPECTIVE AI, ROBOTIC AND AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS IN MULTI-DOMAIN BATTLEFIELDS PH. D. KATRINE NØRGAARD, FORSVARSAKADEMIET

’Future of Work’ in a Military Perspective • Some ’mega trends’ in emerging military technologies: AI, Big Data and Autonomous Systems • Setting the strategic context: The Third Offset Strategy and the technopolitical Revolution of Military Affairs • Possibilities and challenges in Multi-Domain Battle: Human-Machine collaboration and risk management in Hybrid Networks • Future attributes of military forces?

Mega Trends: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Predictive Analytics and Big Data AI and machine learning can process large volumes of information and discern from it intangible connections between people, places and events. Predictive Analytics is the process of generating insight for inference or forecasts of future states from Big Data. Huge amounts of data (Big Data) in the future battlespace means potential for analytics to deliver insight across all warfighting and defence domains, real time decision support, early warnings of crises and real-time monitoring. The integration of deep learning systems to mobile platforms will enhance the robotic capabilities for navigation within dull, dangerous, dirty or heavy, hot, and hazardous situations. AI could enable fully autonomous explosive ordnance disposal in urban areas.

Mega Trends: UAV’s, UGV’s and Autonomous Robotic Systems UAV’S and UGV’s are vehicles that may be remotely controlled by a person or may act autonomously depending on the mission. Applications include allowing for access to unreachable areas, persistent surveillance, endurance, robots in support of soldiers, and cheaper, automated logistics deliveries. Robot Flying Taxi can evacuate 2 casualties Swarm of micro-UAV’s

Mega Trends: Manned-Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T) and Risk Management As human-machine collaboration matures, AI will contribute to faster and improved decision making • Identifying strategic indications and warnings • Advancing narratives and countering adversarial propaganda • Supporting operational/campaign level decision-making • Enabling leaders to employ ’mixed’ manned/unmanned formations • Enhancing the conduct of specific defensive missions in which functions of speed, amount of information and synchronization might overwhelm human decision-making (The U. S. Army Robotic and Autonomous Systems (RAS) Strategy, March 2017)

’Future of Work’ in a Military Perspective Mapping the risks in future battlefields Legal and ethical concerns: Security concerns: • The threshold problem • System malfunction • The proportionality problem • Programming errors • The discrimination problem • Proliferation • The responsibility problem • Cyber attack

’Future of Work’ in a Military perspective The strategic context: RMA and ’The Third Offset Strategy’: “The Third Offset’s initial vector is to exploit all the advances in artificial intelligence and autonomy and to insert them into Do. D’s battle networks to achieve a step increase in performance that the department believes will strengthen conventional deterrence”. (Deputy Secretary of Defence, Bob Work, 2016) C 4 I Battle Network: “A sensor grid that sees what's happening in theater, a command, control, communications, computers and intelligence, or C 4 I, grid that makes sense of what's happening and offers a range of effects, a grid that achieves the chosen effects and a logistics and support grid that keeps the network running” (ibid).

The accelerated/ decelerated battlespace

’Future of Work’ in a Military Perspective Compression of time and space in Multi-Domain Battle:

’Future of Work’ in a Military Perspective Multi-Domain Battle Management and Cross-Domain Maneuvre: Battle Management Network: Command, Control, Communications, Computer and Intelligence (C 4 I) sensor grid or ‘hybrid network’.

’Future of Work’ in a Military Perspective Requirements for the ‘Future of Work’ in Multi-Domain Battle: • Risk Management in Hybrid Human-Machine Battle Networks Cooperative human-machine perception, analysis, evaluation, organization and communication of risk to targeted audiences • Critical capacity, creative thinking and experimentation Prudent decision making in Multi-Domain Battle Networks, requires critical capacity and risk management by policy makers and warfighters in the operative, administrative and political risk environment

’Future of Work’ in a Military Perspective Attributes of future military forces? • Intelligent human-machine collaboration , coordination and problem solving in all domains of operation • Adaptive • Interoperable • Mobile, modular and dispersed human-machine teams • Automated ’Leader-Follower’ convoys and logistical support • Integrated cyber capabilities Top 10 skills in 2020 1. Complex Problem Solving 2. Critical thinking 3. Creativity 4. People Management 5. Coordinating with others 6. Emotional intelligence 7. Judgment and Decision Making 8. Service Orientation 9. Negotiation 10. Cognitive Flexibility

’Future of Work’ in Multi-Domain Battlefields Questions?