From Broken Promise to Public Success A Webinar

From Broken Promise to Public Success: A Webinar on the World Bank’s 2010 Pledge to Basic Education Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012

Tonight’s story: Global basic education before the World Bank’s 2010 pledge The World Bank’s pledge Global basic education after the beginning of pledge implementation And now what. Main characters: World Bank International Development Association (IDA) Global Partnership for Education (GPE, formerly the Education for All – Fast Track Initiative) Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012

What was happening in 2010? IDA Support for Basic Education: IDA Countries and Sub-Saharan Africa, excluding Ethiopia $1, 400 US$ millions $1, 200 a 220% increase $1, 000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 Total IDA support for basic education to all countries Total IDA support for basic education to sub-Saharan Africa, excluding Ethiopia Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012 a 9% decrease

What was happening in 2010? a 353% increase a 1% increase Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012

What was happening in 2010? IDA Support for Basic Education: Non-GPE Countries vs. Sub-Saharan African GPE Countries, excluding Ethiopia $300 $200 down 2% $150 $100 down 18% $50 10 FY 09 FY 08 FY 07 FY 06 FY 05 FY 04 FY 03 FY FY 02 $0 FY 01 US$ millions $250 Total basic education IDA to sub-Saharan African non-GPE countries Total basic education IDA to sub-Saharan African GPE Countries, excluding Ethiopia Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012

Enter the 2010 Pledge “[T]oday I am proud to announce that the Bank’s International Development Association (IDA), our Fund for the Poorest, will increase grants and zero interest loans for basic education by an additional $750 million over the next five years to 2015. This represents about a 40% increase in our basic education lending over the past five years for the poorest countries. These additional resources will be targeted toward countries that are off-track to reach the education MDGs by 2015, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In order to yield the highest impact, the Bank will seek to leverage these additional IDA funds to support low-income countries that receive financing from the Education for All Fast Track Initiative. ” — Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, former Senior Managing Director of the World Bank, New York, September 20, 2010 Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012

POP QUIZ! “[T]oday I am proud to announce that the Bank’s International Development Association (IDA), our Fund for the Poorest, will increase grants and zero interest loans for basic education by an additional $750 million over the next five years to 2015. This represents about a 40% increase in our basic education lending over the past five years for the poorest countries. ” — Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, New York, September 20, 2010 Question 1 How much money does the pledge commit IDA to delivery to basic education from 2011 to 2015? Hint: Answer: Basic education lending over the previous five years (2006 -2010) for the poorest countries (IDA countries) was $4, 891 million. Pledge = countries” Pledge = “a 40% increase in our basic education lending over the past five years for the poorest Pledge ≈ $4, 891 mil + (40% x $4, 891 mil) $4, 891 mil + (0. 4 x $4, 891 mil) $4, 891 mil + $1, 956. 4 mil $6, 847. 4 million $6. 8 billion Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012

POP QUIZ! “[T]oday I am proud to announce that the Bank’s International Development Association (IDA), our Fund for the Poorest, will increase grants and zero interest loans for basic education by an additional $750 million over the next five years to 2015. This represents about a 40% increase in our basic education lending over the past five years for the poorest countries. ” — Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, New York, September 20, 2010 Question 2 What is the annual baseline for the pledge to increase grants and zero interest loans for basic education by an additional $750 million from 2011 -2015? Answer: Hint: Remember the answer to Question 1? Pledge = ≈ “an additional $750 million over the next five years to 2015” $6. 8 billion “an additional $750 million over the next five years to 2015” ≈ $6. 8 billion (annual baseline x 5 years) + $750 million ≈ $6, 800 million (annual baseline x 5 years) + $750 million ≈ $6, 800 million (annual baseline x 5 years) ≈ $6, 050 million annual baseline ≈ $1, 210 million Annual baseline ≈ $1. 2 billion Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012

A Cause for Celebration! Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012

One year later… —UN Millennium Development Goals Summit, Tokyo, June 2011 A few weeks later… Pledge target $1, 400 US$ millions $1, 200 $1, 000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 Shortfall means $1 billion will need to be made up over next 4 years And then… Oh and then… —GPE Pledging Report, November 2011 —World Bank website: “The World Bank and Education - The Facts”, November 2011 Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012

One year later… IDA Support for Basic Education and Pledge Baselines $1, 400 US$ millions $1, 200 $1, 000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 Revised baseline: $742 million Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 Original baseline: $1. 2 billion

What’s the difference? World Bank (IDA) Support for Basic Education and Pledge Differences $1, 800 i ledg 3 bill(Oognal pcuet ($6. 8 billionli) ovns. ) A $2. ri in $1, 600 $1, 400 e ($4. 5 bil g Revised pled $1, 200 se year bdecuraeoaunding n f asic ed c ti million per I $107 at FY 10 levels, the Bank can r 0 e 7 d euvceery. D y. Aear and still meet pledge) g by $1 Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012 15 FY 13 12 FY 11 FY 10 FY FY FY rding ears (20 ncrease acco (Previous 5 y o be a 40% i d t was suppose FY 09 08 07 06 05 04 a e decre-20 s 0 evs. 5 years of pledg t (20 h 1 e 1 o-20 g 1 in 5 a)—pwhdiceh) A 9% l le g ri 1 ) o t 06 02 FY 01 FY 00 $0 $200 Revised pledge's minimum commitment FY (Startin 03 $400 FY $600 14 $800 FY $1, 000 FY US$ millions Original pledge's minimum commitment

What’s happening in 2012? 9% decrease 57% decrease Total IDA Support for Basic Education, Non-GPE Countries vs. GPE Countries excluding Ethiopia and Vietnam GPE countries: Worse 2001 -2010: 2003 -2012: FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 Total IDA support for basic education to all countries Total IDA support for basic education to sub-Saharan Africa, excluding Ethiopia $1, 200 1% decrease 32% decrease US$ millions 2001 -2010: 2003 -2012: $1, 400 $1, 200 $1, 000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 US$ millions Sub-Saharan Africa: Worse IDA Support for Basic Education to Sub-Saharan Africa as Part of Total, excluding Ethiopia $1, 000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 Total IDA support for basic education to non-GPE countries Total IDA support for basic education to GPE countries 2001 -2010: 2003 -2012: 18% decrease 48% decrease US$ millions Sub-Saharan GPE countries: Worse Total IDA Support for Basic Education to Non-GPE Countries vs. sub. Saharan African GPE Countries, excluding Ethiopia $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 Total basic education IDA to sub-Saharan African non-GPE countries Total basic education IDA to sub-Saharan African GPE Countries, excluding Ethiopia Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012 FY 12

How to Turn a $6. 8 Billion Pledge into a $4. 5 Billion Pledge into a $3. 1 Billion Pledge Anything over $742 million per year is going into the “additional $750 million” pot. By this pledge-tracking method, if in FY 11 IDA lending for basic education had totaled $1. 5 billion (i. e. , $758 million over the $742 million baseline), the pledge would have been met in the first year with just $1. 5 billion. $403 million + $1, 502 million + $1, 172 million $3, 077 million = “ 0% left to reach pledge” Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012

What now? Take it to the top—Dr. Jim Yong Kim Media action—Op-eds, letters to the editor, editorials For media tools, visit: www. results. org/results_blog/ Media Training Thursday, September 20 th, 9 pm http: //www. results. org/events-calendar/ Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012

THANK YOU Together we can make things right! Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012