FOURTH POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES FORUM BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

FOURTH POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES FORUM BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Ljerka Maric, BH Council of Ministers 26. June, 2007 Athens, Greece

MTDS - LATEST INFORMATION ON IMPLEMENTATION Report on Implementation of MTDS is prepared on semi-annual basis. n By the end of 2006, 922 measures were planned for implementation n Close to 62% of the measures, or 569 measures were either completed or in continuous implementation n Out of the total number of measures, 66 measures were not implemented, which is 7. 2% of the total number of measures

MTDS - LATEST INFORMATION ON IMPLEMENTATION (2) Success in implementation of MTDS measures by B&H governments

MTDS - LATEST INFORMATION ON IMPLEMENTATION (3) Success in implementation of MTDS measures by B&H parliaments

MTDS - LATEST INFORMATION ON IMPLEMENTATION (4) Success in implementation of MTDS measures in area of macro-economic framework and private sector growth Source: Report on implementation of MTDS for period August 2003 -

MTDS - LATEST INFORMATION ON IMPLEMENTATION (5) Success in implementation of MTDS measures in area of sectoral priorities

BASIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Gross domestic product, KM million Source: Bi. H Agency for Statistics *Estimate

FOREIGN TRADE SECTOR Introduction of VAT Source: Bi. H Central Bank

REGISTERED NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED IN B&H, MONTHLY DATA (in , 000) Source: Employment agencies of FBi. H, RS and DB, DB Statistical office

AVERAGE WAGES IN B&H (in KM), MONTHLY DATA Source: Bi. H Agency for Statistics

INDIRECT TAXATION INCOME (in KM million) January 1, 2005 – Transfer of all authority for collection of indirect taxes to B&H Indirect Taxation Authority Source: B&H Indirect Taxation Authority January 1, 2006 – Introduction of VAT

B&H APPROACH TO DEVELOPMENT Post-war Bi. H has had two types of documents which define strategic development directions at the state level, to date: 1. Documents oriented towards World Bank / IMF documents targeting international donations and loans/credits (PRSP, MTDS. . ) 2. Documents oriented towards EU targeting the EU accession process (EU Accession Strategy, NDP. . . ) § Apart from those there are other policy analysis documents: 1. Variuos types of statistical research 2. UNDP Human Development Report 3. Strategic donor documents, which represent the basis for their support 12

MAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MTDS PROCESS The planning of national development is the core of the MTDS document and process and it consisted and consists of the following steps : 1. Status diagnosis 2. Moves toward planning and allocation of funds 3. Policy Implementation process 4. M&E development These steps should provide precondition for evident based policy making approach. 13

CHALLENGES IN IMPLEMENTING & MONITORING THE MTDS n MTDS has wide spread of terminology, targets and indicators n Multi level Government with variable response to implementation of MTDS measures n Limited capacity to manage implementation and monitor n MTDS not effectively connected with budgets n Very poor prioritization of the measures in the original MTDS n Little connection between macro goals and local planning n Many information and data gaps, particularly regarding social sector n EPPU/DEP Lacking of contacts at local levels to develop qualitative monitoring n Information related to administrative measures rather than impact on service delivery or Impact citizens 14

CHALLENGES IN IMPLEMENTING & MONITORING THE MTDS (2) § MTDS process represents progression and learning process § Up to date implementation & monitoring process increase capacity of public administration on state and entity levels for creation of evident base policy making § DEP and partners currently o building capacity o developing new information and new processes o establishing local linkages to build up local level data and connections o working on qualitative information on effective implementation performance 15

LESSONS LEARNED and MAIN RESULTS OF MTDS PROCESS § Common activities relating to development of B&H ( state, entities, DB) are possible § For successful implementation it is necessary to respect political reality § Commitment of the decision makers required for achievement of goals § Prioritisation of activities and resource allocation required § Introduction of responsibilities § Initial steps in capacity building of the public administration bodies § Better coordination between governmental structures on all levels § Creation of the structure for support of evidence base policy making § Creation of the structure for M&E of implemented tasks and activities § Cooperation with civil society is crucial for the success of the process 16

EU INTEGRATION PROCESS - FROM MTDS TO NEW DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (DS) and STRATEGY for SOCIAL INCLUSION (SIS) EU integration process includes several milestones: § Stabilisation and Accession Process (SAP) § Stabilisation and Accession Agreeement (SAA) § Preaccession road starts § European partnership § The status of country candidate This process also includes preparation of development documents like B&HDS 2008 -2013 that will be a basis for NDP. 17

NEW B&H DS 2008 -2013 – BASIC CONTEXT In accordance with obligatory directives of the Community, new Strategy as a basis for NDP should contain: § National development goals; § Instruments to be used for achieving these goals; § Financial and institutional conditions necessary for implementation; 18

DS – STRUCTURE In accordance with obligatory provisions and informal guidelines of EC, the new DS ( and future NDP) should includes the following: n Analysis of situation (estimate of current social –economical situation) n SWOT analysis of situation n Development strategy and goals n Ex ante evaluation (estimation of feasibility and expected impacts of programmes before their implementation) n Coherency and consistency of strategy n Financial tables: budgetary and others programmes n The Action Plan for implementation of measures must be connected to DS 19

ACTION PLAN An Action plan would include § Brief description of operational programmes § Action plan of activities § Institutional structure of implementation A detailed DS and Action Plan could be a preliminary NDP 20

SOCIAL IINCLUSION STRATEGY (SIS), JOINT INCLUSION MEMORANDUM (JIM) AND NATIONAL ACTION PLAN (NAP) § Considering that the new B&H DS 2008 -2013 will be more focused to economic development of the B&H, DEP will also prepare Social Inclusion Strategy. The reasons for preparation of SIS are: § The number of excluded citizens in B&H is extremely high ( 50, 32% ) but some groups are more jeopardize than others § Momentarily the social policy in B&H is more focused to social protection than to social inclusion §The main characteristics of social protection and spending for social protections are: lack of targeting (defining the groups of users), lack of adequacy and efficient centralization 21

SOCIAL IINCLUSION STRATEGY (SIS), JOINT INCLUSION MEMORANDUM (JIM) AND NATIONAL ACTION PLAN (NAP) -3 § In 2007 B&H will start with preparation of the first SIS § The purpose of SIS is to ensure better social inclusion and equal treatment of all B&H citizens as well as to fulfil precondition for EU integration. § Beside sectoral and intersectoral orientation the SIS will be focused to specific target groups as well § The main elements and strategy recommendations from B&H Strategy for disabled persons will be part of SIS § The values from DS and SIS will be framework for JIM. § The JIM has to prepare country for full legal participation in Open method of coordination of social inclusion. § Under this process, every country has to prepare a National Action Plan for exclusion (NAP/inclusion) for every two years based on common goals.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DS, SIS and MTDS, MTEF and OTHER DEVELOPMENT DOCUMENTS The new B&H DS and SIS should take account of existing: § Previously adopted socio-economic development documents of the country (The priorities from MTDS that were not implemented) § Four year or three year fiscal strategy & Public investment documents § Sectoral strategies § EU accession documents

CONCLUSION § B&H is to embark on successor to MTDS § This should be a natural development from the PRSP and MTDS process toward the EU models and new DS and SIS § Take account of MTDS learning § Reflect current needs of B&H including jeopardized groups (disabled persons, as well) § Be coordianted through DEP 24