Five Questions Speculations on the Universe You and

Five Questions Speculations on the Universe, You, and Foresight in a World of Accelerating Technological Change Mindshare LA July 2008 Los Angeles, CA John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundation Slides: accelerating. org/slides. html

Outline 1. What is Accelerating Change? 2. What is the Universe? 3. Who are You in Relation to the Universe? 4. What Aspects of Our Future Can We Reasonably Understand Today? 5. Why Should You Engage in Foresight / Futures Studies?

What is Accelerating Change? Your intuitions, please!

What is Accelerating Change? An Unexplained and Fascinating Phenomenon

Acceleration Studies: Something Curious Is Going On Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit A ‘Developmental Spiral’ An unexplained physical phenomenon. (Don’t look for this in your current Los Angeles New York Palo Alto physics or information theory texts…) © 2007 Accelerating. org

The Developmental Spiral Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Homo Habilis Age Homo Sapiens Age Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age Agricultural Age Empires Age Scientific Age Industrial Age Information Age Symbiotic Age Autonomy Age Tech Singularity 2, 000 yrs ago 100, 000 yrs 40, 000 yrs 7, 000 yrs 2, 500 yrs 380 yrs (1500 -1770) 180 yrs (1770 -1950) 70 yrs (1950 -2020) 30 yrs (2020 -2050) 10 yrs (2050 -2060) ≈ 2060 © 2007 Accelerating. org

Acceleration Studies Foundation: Who We Are Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l ASF (Accelerating. org) is a small nonprofit community of scholars (est. 2003) exploring accelerating change in: 1. Science, Technology, Business, and Society (STBS), at 2. Personal, Organizational, Societal, Global, and Universal (POSGU) levels of analysis. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Accelerating Change 2005, Stanford University © 2007 Accelerating. org

Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo devo”) futures studies, a model of change that proposes the universe contains both: 1. Convergent and predictable developmental forces and trends that direct and constrain our long-range future and 2. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices we may use to create unique and creative paths (many of which will fail) on the way to these highly probable developmental destinations. l Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to the future of complex systems on Earth include: – – – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity in our global sociotechnological systems Increasing technological autonomy, and Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physical-digital interface. © 2007 Accelerating. org

What is the Universe? Your intuitions, please!

What is the Universe? One current model: A ‘life-like’ system, engaging in both evolution and development.

Evolutionary Development (Evo Devo): The ‘Left and Right Hands’ of Universal Change Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “Experimentation” Main Actor: Seed Replication, Variation, Chaos, Contingency, Early Species Radiation (Mostly Nonadapted) Stochastic Search Strange Attractors “Natural Selection” Main Actor: Organism Life Cycle, Growth Curves, Modularity, Responsiveness, Plasticity, Intelligence (Local Adaptation) Requisite Variety Mixed Attractors Adaptation Radiation “Convergent Unification” Main Actor: Environment MEST Compression, Ergodicity/Comp. Closure, ‘Evolutionary’ Convergence, Path-Dependence/Hierarchy, Dissipative Structures, Positive Sumness/Synergy, Niche Construction/Stigmergy, Self-Organization (Global Adaptation) Environmental Optimization Standard Attractors Hierarchy Evolution ‘Left Hand’ of Change Los Angeles New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’ New York Palo Alto Evo Devo (Intersection) Development ‘Right Hand’ of Change Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’ © 2007 Accelerating. org

Evolution and Development in Universal Terms: A Table and a Some Key Conjectures Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Some Key Conjectures: Evolution is intelligence/information accumulation. Development is intelligence/information preservation. Evolution causes ongoing unpredictability and novelty. Development causes cyclic predictability and stability. Evolution drives most unique local patterns. Development drives most predictable global patterns. Life, Intelligence, the Universe and You and I actively use both evo and devo processes in order to thrive. The more consciously we are aware of this, the more we can understand, value, and work with both. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Each has different and often conflicting processes and aims. Both are critical to our life, society, and the universe. © 2007 Accelerating. org

Evolution vs. Development: Understand it in Life, Understand it in the Universe Acceleration Studies Foundation Consider two ‘genetically identical’ twins: A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Thumbprints, brain wiring, learned ideas and behaviors, many local processes and ‘small things’ are unpredictably unique in each twin. Yet many processes and ‘large things’ are predictably the same. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto The Lesson: (Predictable and conservative) development is always different from but works with (unpredictable and creative) evolutionary processes. Both are fundamental to universal complexity. © 2007 Accelerating. org

More Questions, and a Research Community Acceleration Studies Foundation l Are evo and devo both fundamental methods our universe uses to create and maintain complexity? l By analogy with two genetically-identical twins, would two parametrically-identical universes each exhibit unpredictable and unique evolutionary differentiation over their lifespan, and at the same time, a broad set of predictable and shared developmental milestones, structure and function between them? A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l If so, can we come to understand our universe as an evolutionary developmental (evo devo) system? Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

Evo Devo Theory in Politics: Innovation vs. Sustainability (Both are Fundamental!) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Evo devo theory argues for process balance in political dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability Developmental sustainability without continuous change/creativity creates sterility, clonality, overdetermination, and adaptive weakness (Maoism). Evolutionary creativity (innovation) without sustainability creates chaos, entropy, and volatility that is not naturally stable/recycling (Unregulated Capitalism). © 2007 Accelerating. org

Evo Devo Theory in Politics: Republican vs. Democrat (Both are Fundamental!) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Evo devo theory suggests that both Republican and Democratic platforms bridge the evo devo political center in two complementary ways. That would make each integral, fundamental dialogs (among other integral evo devo mixes) that are likely to be long-term stable all cultures. Republicans are Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Social-Political Issues Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Economic Issues Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Democrats are Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Social-Political Issues Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Economic Issues © 2007 Accelerating. org

Who are You in Relation to the Universe? Your intuitions, please!

Who are You in Relation to the Universe? A very complex and special piece of the universe, evolved and developed by the universe to create (evo), sustain (devo), and understand (evo devo) the universe from your perspective, and to form beliefs about those things you don’t yet understand.

‘Cosmic Embryogenesis’: Complexity Development in Three Easy Steps Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Geosphere/Geogenesis (Chemical Substrate) Biosphere/Biogenesis (Biological-Genetic Substrate) Noosphere/Noogenesis (Memetic-Technologic Substrate) Pierre Teihard de Chardin (1881 -1955) Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist, Developmental Systems Theorist Los Angeles New York Palo Alto The Phenomenon of Man, 1955 © 2007 Accelerating. org

De Chardin on Acceleration: Technological “Cephalization” of Earth Acceleration Studies Foundation "No one can deny that a network (a world network) of economic and psychic affiliations is being woven at ever increasing speed which envelops and constantly penetrates more deeply within each of us. With every day that passes it becomes a little more impossible for us to act or think otherwise than collectively. " A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Finite Sphericity + Acceleration = Phase Transition (‘Singularity’) © 2007 Accelerating. org

What Aspects of Our Future Can We Reasonably Understand Today? Your intuitions, please!

What Aspects of Our Future Can We Reasonably Understand Today? As in Living Systems, We Can Increasingly Understand All the Developmental Aspects of Our Future, But the Evolutionary Aspects are Perpetually Novel and Surprising.

Artificial Intelligence is Coming Of Age Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto • AI is growing, but not yet fastest growing industry ― $1 B in ’ 93 (mostly defense), $12 B in 2002 (mostly commercial). AGR of 12% ― U. S. , Asia, Europe are equally strong in AI ― Belief nets, neural nets, expert systems growing faster than decision support, agents, evo AI ― Mostly incremental enhancement of existing apps (online catalogs, etc. ), few new platforms • Translation, Natural Language Processing, and Computer telephony (CT) are improving rapidly (Google, Directory Systems, Booking Systems) Expect dedicated DSPs on the desktop soon. • Coming: Conversational Interface (CI) Persuasive Computing, and Personality Capture/Valuecosm © 2007 Accelerating. org

Robo sapiens is on the Horizon Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “Huey and Louey” AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2 (Can get up when he falls or when you knock him down) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Aibo Soccer © 2007 Accelerating. org

IA (Intelligence Amplification) and the Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2015 -2025 Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Codebreaking follows a logistic curve. Collective NLP may as well. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Date 1998 2005 2012 2019 Avg. Query 1. 3 words 2. 6 words 5. 2 words 10. 4 words Platform Altavista Google. Help Google. Brain Average spoken human-to-human query length is 11 words. © 2007 Accelerating. org

Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/Agent Interface (“Digital Twin”) in 2020? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Nonverbal and verbal language in parallel is a much more efficient communication modality. Birdwhistell: 2/3 of information in face-to-face human conversation is nonverbal. “Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987 Ananova, 2002 © 2007 Accelerating. org

Post 2020: The Symbiotic Age Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit A Coevolution between Saturating Humans and Accelerating Technology: l A time when computers “speak our language. ” l A time when our technologies are very responsive to our needs and desires. l A time when humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other. l A time when we will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes. ” Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

Personality Capture: A Long-Term Development of Intelligence Amplification Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Conversational interfaces lead to personality models. In the long run, we become seamless with our machines. No other credible long-term futures have been proposed. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic. ” (Brian Arthur, SFI) © 2007 Accelerating. org

Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “I would never upload my consciousness into a machine. ” “I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children. ” Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “ 50% her. ” When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “ 80% him. ” Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition. When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological should feel like only growth, not death. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto We wouldn’t have it any other way. Greg Panos (and Mother) Persona. Foundation. org © 2007 Accelerating. org

Valuecosm 2040: Our Plural-Positive Political Future Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s Valuecosm (Smart), 2030’s - Recording and Publishing DT Preferences - Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us - Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions - Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice) - Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable) - Early Examples: Social Network Media © 2007 Accelerating. org

Problem: Unsustainable Environmental Practices Long-Term Opportunity: Sustainability Economics Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit First (and only) platinum-certified LEED building in AZ in 2007: ASU’s Biodesign Institute Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Canon’s WEEE Man 3. 3 long tons of electrojunk (current average first world human elec. waste) Shrink the man! © 2007 Accelerating. org

Problem: Violent Conflict Long-Term Opportunity: Reducing Global Violence Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Steven Pinker, “A History of Violence, ” 2007 l l l Civil society: 1) replaces anarchy with order, 2) increases value of life, 3) offers positive-sum interactions, 4) expands one’s circle of empathy In sixteenth-century Paris, a popular form of entertainment was cat-burning. Such atrocities could not be popular culture today. 20 th Century state war deaths of 100 million would have been 2 billion (20 X) if they had the relative mortality of tribal warfare. Homicide rates in England (typical) fell from 24 per 100, 000 in the fourteenth century to 0. 6 per 100, 000 by the early 1960 s. Battle deaths in interstate wars have declined from 65, 000/yr in the 1950 s to 2, 000/yr in 1990’s See Human Security Brief 2006 (www. humansecuritybrief. info/) Los Angeles New York “A History of Violence, ” Steven Pinker, The New Republic Online, 19 Mar 2007 Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

Problem: Low Cost, Sustainable Energy Supply Longer-Term Opportunity: Solar Energy Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Not yet a revolutionary platform at present: l 10%-25% conversion efficiencies today. May need 50% efficiencies for significant “substitution” over fossil fuels. l High yield cells are not yet cheap or very environmentally friendly. l Before 1990’s, it may have taken more energy to create solar cells than they could generate in a lifetime (neg. energy payback). Energy paybacks on solar cells now range from 4 -10 yrs. Economic paybacks are still 3 X this (15 -30 years). l We also need cheap solar energy storage systems (nanobatteries, flywheels, etc. ) l Germany has greatest number of solar photovoltaic (PV) cell installations today. l Solar PV-electric likely to be cost competitive with coal-fired power plant electric in 2020’s l We are in the last generation of ‘geostrategic’ energy politics. Los Angeles New York See: Photon Consulting, 2007 Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

Problem: Water Supply Long-Term Opportunity: Desalination Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Water use in Israel. Agricultural and residential efficiency innovations can deliver the most savings. Reverse osmosis is one of several types of desalination technologies. Desalinated water production gets half as expensive per cubic meter every six years (LA Times, 2005) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Annual desalination output in Abu Dhabi © 2007 Accelerating. org

Problem: Gridlock in Growing Cities Longer-Term Opp: Underground Automated Hwy Systems Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit May be significantly cheaper than air taxi transport (per passenger mile, once installed). No visual blight, reclaim surface real estate. Allows > 10 X growth in our current traffic capacity in our leading cities, lower transit times and better safety than manual driving. Requires Intelligent and Zero-Emission Vehicle’s (2025+) Number of tunnel boring machines are doubling every three years. Los Angeles New York “Underground Automated Highway Systems: A 2030 Scenario, ” John Smart, 2005 Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

Why Should You Engage in Foresight / Futures Studies? Your intuitions, please!

Why Should You Engage in Foresight / Futures Studies? Hindsight, Insight, and Foresight Make us Mindful, Balanced and Alive in the Present. Foresight Can Be Developed, Like Any Other Skill, to Help Us Understand Differentiate Predictable and Unpredictable Aspects of our Personal, Organizational, Societal, Global, and Universal Futures

Global Futures Network: For Professional Futurists, Foresight Educators, and You! Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit A public, community-edited People, Orgs, and Resources directory for emerging global foresight culture. Futures. Network. org GFN is your portal to the best online social networks (Shaping Tomorrow, GFN Linked. In, GFN Facebook), social groups (ASF Future Salons, WTA and WFS Chapters), organizations, listserves, conferences, websites, periodicals, publications, etc. for those interested in futures/foresight subjects. Join us! Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

FERN: Foresight/Futures Educators, Students, and Advocates of Foresight Education Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Foresight Education and Research Network FERN (FERNweb. org) is a global community foresight/futures educators, students, and advocates of foresight education. It networks foresight educators, the ten academic programs in foresight/futures studies (offering credentials to become a foresight educator), MS and Ph. D students and alums, and helps develop open source futures/foresight materials, courses, and new academic programs globally. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

Evo Devo Universe: For Scholars of Evolutionary and Developmental Processes in the Universe Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Improving foresight through better theories of universal change. Evo. Devo. Universe. com is a global community of physicists, chemists, biologists, cognitive and social scientists, technologists, philosophers, and complexity and systems theorists who are interested in better characterizing the relationship and difference between evolutionary (mostly unpredictable) and developmental (significantly predictable) processes in the universe and its subsystems. © 2007 Accelerating. org

A Closing Visual: Collectively Piloting Spaceship Earth. Or Not. Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org