First Nuclear Age, 1945 -90 s 1. Bipolarity Second Nuclear Age, 1990 s to present 1. – balance 2. 3. Deterrence – vulnerability 4. • asymmetry 2. Deterrence • missile defense Arms Control – Managing rivalry Multipolarity 3. Arms Control • coercion Rationality 4. Rationality
Second Nuclear Age, 1990 s to present 1. Multipolarity • asymmetry 2. Deterrence • missile defense 3. Arms Control • coercion 4. Rationality
1. Multipolarity More players in the game Several levels of relationships Almost all are asymmetric A. Strategic Level B. Regional Level C. Terrorism?
Table 1. Estimated global nuclear weapons inventories, 2014. Hans M. Kristensen, and Robert S. Norris Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2014; 0096340214547619 Copyright © by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
A. Strategic level US and Russia: rough equality q Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) 2002 q New START Treaty 2010
China n n n Chinese nuclear capability Chinese nuclear doctrine US Annual Report on Chinese Military Power
Table 1. Chinese nuclear forces, 2013. Hans M. Kristensen, and Robert S. Norris Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2013; 69: 79 -85 Copyright © by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Chinese MRBM and ICBM Ranges from US Report on Chinese Military Power, p. 82
B. Regional Level n n n South Asia Middle East Asia
South Asia
India Missile Ranges
Pakistani Missile Ranges
The Problems? n North Korea: Three nuclear tests • October 9, 2006 • May 25, 2009 • February 12, 2013 n Iran: No tests yet, but • 2007 US National Intelligence Estimate • 2013 IAEA Report • 2013 BBC Analysis
C. Terrorism? n n AQAM US Invasion of Iraq 2003 Coup in Pakistan Iranian allies: Hezbollah?
2. Deterrence Three Modifications to Cold War Deterrence Dealing with the regional threat A. Missile Defense B. Prompt Global Strike C. Use of Nuclear Weapons against Non-Nuclear States
A. Missile Defense Strategic Defense Initiative: Reagan’s SDI speech, March 23, 1983
NMD: Deterrence by Denial National Missile Defense Act of 1999 n US Missile Defense Agency n The missile defense system n NMD test videos n BMD Review 2010
GW Bush and Obama
B. Prompt Global Strike GW Bush Nuclear Posture Review 2001 n Summary Obama Nuclear Posture Review 2010 n US Strategic Command: JFCC Global Strike Amy F. Woolf, “Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues. ” n Congressional Research Service. April 26, 2013
Why Conventional PGS? n n Speed Vulnerability of forward bases Preemption Option to stay below nuclear threshold
C. Use of Nuclear Weapons against Non-Nuclear States
3. Arms Control Strategic Arms Control: n US and Russia • Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) 2002 • New START Treaty 2010 n US and China: nothing
Regional Powers? n n Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 1968 (1970) International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Problems? Never Signed NPT n Israel n India n Pakistan Violated Treaty Provisions n Iraq n Iran n North Korea
Coercion, Sanctions, Talks North Korea n Six Party Talks n UNSC Resolution 1718 (2006) Iran n P 5 + 1 Talks n UNSC Resolution 1929 (2010)
Missile Technology Control Regime
4. Rationality n If leaders of these states are rational… • Extortion is their policy n If leaders of these states are irrational… • How do we deal with them?
Larger Question Does Deterrence Work? GW Bush answer
Terrorists Rationality? n n Hamas or AQAM? Rationality of groups that use suicide bombing?
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