Federal R D Overview Update and Outlook Matt Hourihan

Federal R&D: Overview, Update and Outlook Matt Hourihan September 15, 2013 for the National Association of Graduate-Professional Students AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program http: //www. aaas. org/spp/rd

Why (Public) R&D? l Technology and innovation account for >50% of postwar growth in most developed countries l Productivity growth l Decentralized nature of modern innovation l Public-Private l STEM capacity l Radical innovations (ideas, technologies, tools, methods) l It’s all about risk, uncertainty, and time l Gov’t as “de-risker, ” expander of knowledge stock

Admin FY 2014 R&D Priorities l Clear shift from D to R l And from Defense to Nondefense l Science l NSF, Dept. of Energy SC l Agriculture, neuroscience, big data, defense science l Webb Telescope l Innovation l Advanced manufacturing initiatives across the board l Translational Medicine (NIH) l Space Technology (NASA)

Admin FY 2014 R&D Priorities (Cont) l Clean Energy l Renewable/efficiency technology offices, ARPA-E l But not so much for nuclear l Homeland Security l Biodefense facility l National Nuclear Security Administration (New START) l STEM Education Reorganization

Admin FY 2014 R&D Priorities (Cont) l The biggie for R&D: Returning discretionary spending to presequester levels l Every agency would receive major increases above FY 13

Congress: Where Are We? l Of 12 appropriations bills: l Four through House, none through Senate l Fiscal year + debt ceiling l Two discretionary budget caps: l President and Senate: $1. 06 trillion… l House (and current law): $967 billion l R&D appropriations decisions so far (mostly) reflect these differences l But does any of it matter?

Congress So Far l Areas of (rough) agreement: l Defense (including DOE), Homeland Security, Veteransrelated R&D l STEM reorganization: “no thanks, for now” l Planetary science l USDA

Congress So Far (Cont) l Rough agreement in priorities but divergent funding anyway l NSF l Social sciences…? l NASA exploration and technology: asteroids? ? l DOE Office of Science l Fusion? BER? l NIST

Congress So Far (Cont) l Areas of complete divergence in priorities l Clean energy R&D l Natural resources and environmental science l EPA, USGS l Unknown: NIH, but House Labor-HHS bill will be much smaller

Big Picture / Looking Ahead l The clock is ticking l Analysts: a mix of taxes and spending cuts l But hardline politics has led to complete and utter fiscal failure l Almost certainly heading for a continuing resolution l FY 13 funding minus ~2%? l The debt ceiling situation is scary l FY 2015 planning also murky

For more info… mhouriha@aaas. org 202 -326 -6607 www. aaas. org/spp/rd/