Farm Forestry Situation and Outlook 2008/2009 James Breen 1 and Mary Ryan 2 1 Rural Economy Research Centre, 2 Forestry Development Unit Teagasc Forestry Development Unit th
Outline o New planting rates o Current trends o Profile of farmers with forests o Review of timber markets o Profile of farmers intending to plant o Summary Forestry Development Unit Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008
Irish Afforestation Rates 1982 - 2007 Source: Forest Service 2007 Forestry Development Unit Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008
Farm Afforestation rates by region 1990 to 2007 Source: Forest Service 2007 Forestry Development Unit Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008
Farm Afforestation rates by region 1990 to 2007 Source: Forest Service 2007 Forestry Development Unit Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008
Farm Afforestation rates by region 1990 to 2007 Source: Forest Service 2007 Forestry Development Unit Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008
Divergence between Premium Payments and Private Planting Forestry Development Unit Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008
Divergence between Premium Payments and Private Planting Forestry Development Unit Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008
Barriers to Afforestation o Potential value of unplanted land o No REPS payment on forestry o Forestry is a permanent decision o Need all my land for agriculture o Dislike forestry o Other Source: National Farm Survey 2006 Forestry Development Unit Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008
Main Reason For Not Planting Source: National Farm Survey 2006 Forestry Development Unit Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008
Farms with Forests 2007 o Survey represents 7, 200 farms with forests o 6. 5% of all farms o Average farm size: Farms with forests = 62. 7 ha n Farms without forests = 33. 7 ha o Average forest premium payment: € 4, 428/yr n Forestry Development Unit Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008
Farms with Forests 2007 % of Farms Average Forest Area (ha) Specialist Dairy 16 8. 6 Dairy and Other 8 15. 5 Cattle Rearing 33 11. 8 Cattle Other 19 8. 6 Sheep 18. 5 15. 5 Tillage 5. 5 4. 8 Source: National Farm Survey 2007 Forestry Development Unit Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008
Review and Outlook for Markets o New opportunities: >60 industrial wood chip boilers p 2, 000 ha of thinnings n Carbon sequestration potential o Increase in thinning activity n General Felling Licences: 102 in 2005 to 692 in 2008 o 2007 – Record year –Coillte supplied 87% o Decline in forecast for 2009 house starts according to Home Bond. n Forestry Development Unit Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008
Coillte Roadside Large Sawlog Price Index – 1992 to Present Source: Coillte 2008 Forestry Development Unit Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008
Returns to Farm Forest Owners NPV (€/ha) Planted 1998 5, 252 Annualised Discounted Gross Margin (€/ha) 342 Planted 2008 No FEPS Planted 2008 With FEPS 8, 795 513 10, 203 595 Forestry Development Unit Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008
Farmer Planting Intentions o Survey population represents 5, 100 farms (4. 5% of pop) stated intention to plant in the next three years o Area to be planted 36, 700 ha o Approx 1% of U. A. A. n But represents 13% of U. A. A. on those farms Source: National Farm Survey 2007 Forestry Development Unit Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008
Farmer Planting Intentions o Larger Farms 56 ha of U. A. A. vs 36 ha o 2, 500 (50%) were in REPS o 1, 700 (33%) were in REPS and had >40 ha therefore could benefit from FEPS o 38% of farmers who intend to plant already have a forest Forestry Development Unit Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008
Farmer Planting Intentions % of farms Average Intended Planting Area Specialist Dairy 9. 4 7. 2 Dairy and Other 6. 7 19. 3 Cattle rearing 18. 7 6. 9 Cattle Other 15 6. 1 Sheep 31 5. 4 Tillage 19. 2 7. 1 Source: National Farm Survey 2007 Forestry Development Unit Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008
Summary o Significant levelling off in new planting area o Policy moving towards more environmental focus o Shift in species and type of land being planted o Decline in construction industry o Cyclical timber prices o New opportunities o Forests eligible for SFP o Variety of reasons for decline in planting both economic and social. Forestry Development Unit Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008
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