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Evo Devo Universe? A Speculative Framework for Thinking about Unpredictable and Predictable Aspects of Universal Change SFI Business Network Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe, NM Sept 2009 John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundation Slides: accelerating. org/slides. html johnsmart@accelerating. org
Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo devo”) foresight, a model of change that proposes the universe contains both: 1. Convergent and predictable developmental constraints (initial conditions, constancies) which direct certain aspects of our long-range future and 2. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices that we use to create unique, informationally valuable, and creative paths (many of which will fail) on the way to these highly probable developmental destinations. l Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to the future of complex systems on Earth include: – – – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity in our global sociotechnological systems Increasing technological autonomy, and Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physicaldigital interface. © 2009 Accelerating. org
Evo Devo Universe: For Scholars of Evolutionary and Developmental Processes in the Universe Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Improving foresight through better theories of universal change. Evo. Devo. Universe. com is a global community of physicists, chemists, biologists, informational, computer, cognitive and social scientists, technologists, philosophers, and complexity and systems theorists who are interested in better characterizing the relationship and difference between evolutionary (mostly unpredictable) and developmental (significantly predictable) processes in the universe and its subsystems. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2009 Accelerating. org
Goals and Motivations Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l To better understand the universe and its processes. l To ask if the following process concepts make sense: – – – universal progress/intelligence improvement accelerating progress/intelligence improvement universal evolution and development evolutionary process (purpose, teleology) developmental process (purpose, teleology) l To understand the apparent balance between: – – – accelerating experimentation/creativity/evolution accelerating adaptation/intelligence/progress, and accelerating sustainability/immunity/resiliency (noting that we have yet to well articulate this last concept). l To learn how to live more balanced lives individually, organizationally and culturally, and to have goals consistent with the goals (teleology) of the universe we are embedded within. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Goals and Motivations - II Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto l To understand the evolutionary and developmental levers that are most rapidly and powerfully moving the world in a progressive direction. l To learn how to make better personal, organizational, and social decisions to support positive change. l To better understand evil, imbalance, and maladaptiveness within a theory of universal evolution and development. l To better understand assess global and societal risks and risk management (vigilance, adaptiveness, resiliency), within the context of historical accelerating progress (apparent intrinsic developmental immune systems). l To know our developmental limits and constraints.
Goals and Motivations - III Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto l To improve the precision and clarity of EDU hypotheses l To make specific predictions (how things must happen) and retrodictions (how things must have happened), that can be falsified or verified. l To recruit scholars to join us at Evo. Devo. Universe. com l To get scholars to read and comment on my 25, 000 word precis on these topics, Evo Devo Universe? , at books. accelerating. org. l To tell incrementally better stories about the future (to improve our collective social foresight).
Talk Outline Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto 1. Evo Devo Universe Hypothesis To what extent is our universe and its subsystems like an evolutionary developmental, complex adaptive system? 2. Toward a Science of Universal Development What mechanisms constrain universal development? What is accelerating change, from a developmental frame? What are development’s morphological dynamics? 3. Black Hole Destiny Hypothesis Where does universal intelligence go as it develops? 4. 21 st Century Developmental Futures How are we constrained to develop, on average? ● If just one of these independently considerable topics has merit, this talk is worth your attention. ● I look forward to further critique of each of these by the global scientific community.
2020 -2050 Developmental Scenarios The Valuecosm Society / The Symbiotic Age
The IA-AI Convergence of ‘Metahumanity, ’ a Human-Machine Superorganism Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Biologist William Wheeler, 1937: Termites, bees, ants, and other social animals are parts of “superorganisms. ” Increasingly, they can’t be understood apart from the structures their genetics compel them to construct. Their developmental endpoint: an integrated cell/organism/supercolony. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global Superorganism, 1994
De Chardin on Technological Acceleration: “Cephalization” / “Planetization” of Earth Acceleration Studies Foundation "No one can deny that a network (a world network) of economic and psychic affiliations is being woven at ever increasing speed which envelops and constantly penetrates more deeply within each of us. With every day that passes it becomes a little more impossible for us to act or think otherwise than collectively. " A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “Finite Sphericity + Acceleration = Phase Transition”
Understanding Process Automation Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Perhaps 80% of today's First World paycheck is paid for by automation (“tech we tend, not the arms we bend”). Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics (Solow Productivity Paradox, Theory of Economic Growth) “ 7/8 comes from technical progress. ” Human contribution (20%? ) to a First World job is Social Value of Employment + Creativity + Education Developing countries are next in line (sooner or later). Continual education and grants (“taxing the machines”) are the final job descriptions for all human beings. Termite Mound
Biologically-Inspired Technology and Evo Devo Computing: The Next Frontier Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Today we have weakly biologically-inspired computing technologies (neural nets, genetic algorithms, developmental genetic programming, belief networks, support vector machines, evolvable hardware, etc. ) When such systems become: l Strongly biologically-inspired l Extensively self-improving (semi-autonomous) l Leading strategies for creating complex systems Only then may the “technological singularity” be near. For more, attend: Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
How do you get stability/safety in an evolutionary system? Select for symbiosis. Acceleration Studies Foundation l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Look at how we do it in domesticated animals (10, 000 years, 5, 000 breeding cycles). How many breeds of dogs and cats can you trust with small children? Military will always have the warbots (narrowly trustable) Most breeds of robotic systems will be generally trustable, all will be trustable for their missions, or we won’t build them using evolutionary processes. Boston Dynamics Big. Dog
Humbot 1. 0: The Sputnik (Robotic High Ground) of our Global Network Society? Acceleration Studies Foundation Sputnik (1957) Humbot 0. 1 (2005) Humbot 1. 0 (2030) U. S. -Surpassing Space/Defense Tech U. S. Soldier-Enhancing Security/Warfighting Tech Global Soldier-Surpassing Security/Policing Tech A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Q: Will a U. S. -led consortium supply the world with Humbot 1. 0? Or will a Chinese, Japanese, or Korean-led consortium beat us to it? This is an important strategic uncertainty at present. The choice is ours.
IA (Intelligence Amplification) and the Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2015 -2025 Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Codebreaking follows a logistic curve. Collective NLP may as well. Date Avg. Query 1998 1. 3 words 2005 2. 6 words 2012 5. 2 words 2019 10. 4 words Platform Altavista Google. Help Google. Brain Average spoken human-to-human query length is 8 -11 words. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Smart, J (2003) The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward. © 2009 Accelerating. org
Post 2020: The Symbiotic Age Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit A Coevolution between Saturating Humans and Accelerating Technology: l A time when computers “speak our language. ” l A time when our technologies are very responsive to our needs and desires. l A time when humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other. l A time when we will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes. ” Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2009 Accelerating. org
Wearable Web: 24/7 Augmented Reality Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Necklace phone (Nokia 2004) ‘Bracelet phone’ concept (Vodafone 2006) ‘Carpal PC’ concept (Metaverse Roadmap 2006) Los Angeles Wearcam. org’s New York ‘sousveillance’ Palo Alto first-gen cams (2001) i. Phone (Apple 2007) Flip Ultra (2007, $130) Top-selling camcorder.
Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/Agent Interface (“Cyber. Twin”) in 2020? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Nonverbal and verbal language in parallel is a much more efficient communication modality. Birdwhistell says 2/3 (but perhaps only 1/3) of info in face-to-face human conversation is nonverbal. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987 Ananova, 2002 © 2009 Accelerating. org
Personality Capture: A Long-Term Development of Intelligence Amplification Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Conversational interfaces lead to personality models. In the long run, we become seamless with our machines. No other credible long-term futures have been proposed. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic. ” (Brian Arthur, SFI) © 2009 Accelerating. org
Your “Digital You” (Cyber. Twin) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “I would never upload my consciousness into a machine. ” “I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children. ” Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “ 50% her. ” When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “ 80% him. ” Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition. When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological should feel like only growth, not death. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto We wouldn’t have it any other way. Greg Panos (and Mother) Persona. Foundation. org © 2009 Accelerating. org
Valuecosm 2040: Our Plural-Positive Political Future Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s Valuecosm (Smart), 2030’s - Recording and Publishing CT Preferences - Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us - Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions - Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice) - Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable) - Early Examples: Social Network Media © 2009 Accelerating. org
Advent of the Cyber. Twin, Circa 2020: The Biggest Single Change We May See In our Lifetimes! Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Consider the implications for: l Subculture Diversity and Representation l Global Comm and Collab (no lang barrier) l Digital Divide (disappears) l Accountablity of Powerful Actors l Data Security and Privacy l Crime and Fraud l Public Relations Manipulation l Reputation Systems and Transparency l Socio-Economic-Political Democracy l Parenting (How early can kids have CT’s? ) l Personal Empowerment (20% of us? ) l Entertainment and Dependency (80% of us? )
1. Evo Devo Universe Hypothesis - As in evo-devo biology, must all complex systems engage in both evolutionary variation and developmental hierarchy production and replication to garner adaptive complexity? - What are the (evolutionary) possibilities and (developmental) constraints of replicating intrauniversal complex adaptive systems, and can we expect similar possibilities and predictable constraints on the universe as a complex system?
From Darwin to Post-Darwinian Models: Evolution to Evolutionary Development Acceleration Studies Foundation Darwin Conway Morris l The Darwinian model of evolution encompasses three fundamental processes: variation, selection, and heritability. l The post-Darwinian model of evolutionary development (evo-devo biology) requires us to consider variational (“evolutionary”) and heritable (“developmental”) processes as most fundamental to complex systems. Selection (“computation”) is a composite process occuring only in complex systems that have variation and replication (inheritance). We can summarize this as an “evo compu devo” process model. l While the term “evolution” can generically describe biological change, this is a bit misleading, as both evolution and development are equally fundamental to complexity. To understand macrotemporal, macroscale selection (generalized “computation”) we must consider both processes. l “Evo-devo” biology (Conway Morris, et. al. ) asks such questions as: How does developmental process constrain evolutionary process? How does evolutionary process improve developmental process? What is macrotemporal “evolutionary convergence” (homoplasy)? l The Evo Devo Universe hypothesis proposes that, just like biological organisms, our universe itself is engaged in both evolutionary (variation, creativity) and developmental (hierarchy, replication, lifecycle) process. A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Process: Cartoon Model I Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto The Evo Compu Devo process model proposes all complex systems engage in three processes: two (variation and heritability) being fundamental, the third (computation, selection) being an emergent blend of the first two. EDU Hypothesis: Evolutionary and developmental processes are fundamental and complementary modes of information processing in all complex adaptive systems, including the universe as a system. In other words, our universe is not only ‘evolving’ (varying, experimenting), it is developing too. This development is guided by its special initial developmental parameters, and the informational constancies of its environment (the multiverse).
‘Evolution’ (Evolutionary Variation): A Tentative Definition Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto l Evolutionary (variational, ‘emergent’) processes in biology, and in physical, chemical, cultural, technological, and universal systems, are stochastic (random within constraints), creative, divergent, contingent, nonlinear, and unpredictable. This intrinsic unpredictability may be our most useful quantitative definition and discriminator of evolutionary processes at all systems levels. Evolution (in this and the classic definition) doesn’t know the future. Almost all evolutionary initiatives fail. Evolution’s computational function is ‘tinkering’, or experimentation under high uncertainty (Jacobs). Note: Evolutionary variation is NOT natural selection. Its fundamental dynamic is change and variation (within constraints). It is a creativity generator, and thus a precursor to natural selection. Example: Genetic drift in neutral theory (Kimura 1983; Leigh 2007). © 2007 Accelerating. org
Evolution(ary variation) is Random, Chaotic, Contingent: Examples: Tree of Life, Vestigial Structures Acceleration Studies Foundation l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto There’s no inherent directionality to (almost all) evolutionary emergence, other than increased variety over time. On average, a species adapting to a niche may almost as easily become less complex as more complex (ex: remoras, blind cave fish). Vestigial structures abound: true human tails, supernumerary nipples, whale and dolphin atavistic legs, etc.
Development: A Tentative Definition Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto l Development has heritability, life cycle, and a constrained hierarchy (not stochastic ‘emergence’): birth, growth, maturation, reproduction, senescence, death (recycling). Development is essentially conservative, not creative. Developmental processes in biology, and we assume also in physical, chemical, cultural, technological, and universal systems, are directional, hierarchical, constraining, convergent, integrative, self-assembling/self-organizing, and statistically predictable if you have the right empirical or theoretical aids. This systemic predictability may be our most useful quantitative definition and discriminator of developmental processes at all systems levels. Note: Development is NOT natural selection. It is a convergent unifier, and thus a specialized outcome of natural selection. Examples: Biological development, differentiation, evolutionary homoplasy, niche construction, self-similarity, self-organization… © 2007 Accelerating. org
Evo Devo Universe hypothesis Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Evo-devo biology seeks to resolve the differences between evolutionary and developmental processes spanning the scales of cells, organisms and ecologies (Carroll 2005, many others). Recalling Teilhard’s (1955) evocative phrase, ‘cosmic embryogenesis, ’ if the Big Bang acts like a seed, and the expanding universe like an embryo, it must use both stochastic, contingent, and local/micro ‘variational’ processes—what we are calling evolutionary process—in its elaboration of form and function, just as we see at the molecular scale in any embryo. Embryos also transition through a set of statistically predictable, convergent, and global/macro differentiation milestones, then reproduction, senescence, and the unavoidable termination of somatic (body) life—what we are calling development. If the evo devo analogy has homology, there must be unpredictable creativity and predictable developmental milestones, reproduction, and ending to our universe. © 2007 Accelerating. org
Evo Devo Universe? – An Article Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit We can begin to model our universe as an information processing, evolutionary and developmental system as an evo compu devo universe (abbrev. evo devo universe hereafter). Our framework will try to reconcile the majority of unpredictable, ‘evolutionary’ features of universal emergence with a subset of potentially statistically predictable and developmental universal trends, including: l l Acceleration in universal complexity (e. g. Aunger 2007), a pattern seen over the last half—but not the first half—of the universe’s history Increasing spatial and temporal locality of universal complexity development Hierarchies of increasingly matter and energy efficient and matter and energy dense ‘substrates’ (platforms) for adaptation and computation The apparent accelerating emergence, on Earth, of increasingly postbiological (technological) systems of physical transformation and computation. Los Angeles Smart, New York. John M. 2008. Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations In: Alto Palo. Cosmos and Culture, Steven J. Dick (ed. ), NASA Press, 2009 (est. ). on Cosmic Culture.
An EDU Analogy: Genetically Identical Twins and Parametrically Identical Universes Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit • • Los Angeles New York Palo Alto In genetically identical twins, organogenesis, fingerprints, brain wiring, learned ideas, behaviors, all the local, microscopic processes are unpredictably (evolutionarily) unique in each twin (Jain 2002). Yet many global, macroscopic processes are predictably the same. Would parametrically identical universes also be evolutionarily unique yet developmentally the same? Are our universe’s (proposed) many intelligent civilizations also evolutionarily unique yet developmentally identical? Key questions for cosmology, astrobiology, simulation science. The Hypothesis: (Predictable and conservative) development is always © 2009 Accelerating. org
Development is Statistically Deterministic, Self-Ordering, and “Robust” to Contingencies Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Two monozygotic twins look, and function, in many probabilistic respects, identically. How is that? They’ve been tuned, cyclically, for a future-specific convergent emergent order, in a stable development niche. Just a few hundred developmental genes are “cat herders” (dampers, coordinators) of massive molecular evolutionary chaos. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Origination of Organismal Form, Müller and Newman, 2003
Development and Life Cycle: Seed, Organism, Environment (SOE) Intelligence Partitioning Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l The disposable soma theory of aging (Kirkwood 1977, 2005) outlines the different choices in energy and information flow that occur in the ‘disposable’ soma (organism, body) versus the ‘immortal’ germline (seed, sperm/ egg) in all biological systems. l But biological intell. actually lives in three places: seed, organism, & environment (SOE partitioning). l In an evo compu devo universe, intelligence is also energetically Los Angeles New York Palo Alto and informationally partitioned between a soma (universe) that is finite, reproductive and mortal, an ‘immortal’ (and much slowerchanging) germline (seed) of parameters that have very slowly selforganized through many reproductive cycles in the multiverse, and the multiverse itself (environment). © 2007 Accelerating. org
Evo Devo in Observation, Creation and Control: The ‘ 95/5%’ Rule of Thumb Acceleration Studies Foundation l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto The vast majority (we may roughly propose 95%) of the information and computation to describe and model both creation of a new complex adaptive system (CAS) or control in a mature CAS involves bottom-up, local, evolutionary processes. A minor yet critical contribution (again, let us roughly propose 5%) comes from top-down, hierarchical, developmental processes. Ex: No. of genes used (and highly conserved) in developmental toolkit in any species (eg. , Dictyostelium, 2 -3%), vs. the much larger number of ‘evolutionary’ genes much more frequently modified and which affect phenotype variation, not development. The 95/5% Rule may explain why discovery of universal development been difficult not in physics and chemistry (e. g. , mechanics, relativity, particle physics), and in developmental bio, but in macrobiological change, in society, and technology. In these latter substrates, which are not yet ergodic, the life-cycle of the (‘ 5%’) nonrandom devel. signal is much longer and only partly observable vs. the (‘ 95%’) near-random evolutionary signal. © 2007 Accelerating. org
Theory of Facilitated Variation: “How Development Facilitates Evolution” Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit An evo-devo theory which seeks to explain how phenotypic complexity arises from a very limited number of genes and variation mechanisms, by dividing variation into two fundamental types: 1. Deconstrained Exploratory (i. e. , ‘Evolutionary’) processes, primarily affecting the regulation of Core processes. 2. Constrained Core (i. e. , ‘Developmental’) processes Exploratory processes create many Complexity phenotypes from (Adaptation) very limited set of genes Organism Core processes are robust to many exploratory alterations of phenotype Deconstrained Gene Recomb & Expression Los Angeles New York Palo Alto J, Gerhart Constrained Gene Recomb & Expression ‘Exploratory’ Processes Unconserved, Unpredictable ‘Core’ Processes Conserved, Predictable Kirschner M. 2007. "The theory of facilitated variation". PNAS USA. 104(S 1): 8582– 9.
Universal Evolution and Development: Five Adaptive Hierarchical Substrates Acceleration Studies Foundation l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Universal change to date has proceeded through an evolutionary developmental hierarchy of increasingly complex (more unique material 1. Astro. Physics relations), intelligent (Universe-as-CAS, constants and laws, space-time, (higher-order information processing) and adaptive computational substrates. Five are proposed below. energy-matter) Astrotechnology, the italicized substrate, is not yet autonomous. 2. Astro. Chemistry The underlined systems within these substrates are not presently known (galaxies, stars, planets, molecules in inorganic and to be replicative, unless our universe replicates in the multiverse. organic chemistry) 3. Astro. Biology (cells, organisms, populations, species, ecologies) 4. Astro. Sociology (culture, human disciplines of economics, law, sci. , engineering, etc. ) 5. Astro. Technology (engines, cities, biology-inspired computing, postbiological ‘life’) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org
Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Process: Cartoon Model II A Post-Darwinian Model: Evolutionary Development “Natural Selection” Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “Experimentation ” Main Actor: Seed Variation, Emergence, Chaos, Contingency, Early Species Radiation (Mostly Nonadapted) Stochastic Search Strange Attractors Main Actor: Organism Modularity, Responsiveness, Plasticity, Intelligence (Local Adaptation) Requisite Variety Mixed Attractors Adaptation Radiation “Convergent Unification” Main Actor: Environment Heritability, Life Cycle, Replic. , STEM Compression, Self. Org. , Ergodicity/Comp. Closure, ‘Evolutionary’ Convergence, Path-Dependence, Dissipative Structures, Positive Sumness/Synergy, Niche Construction/Stigmergy (Global Adaptation) Environmental Optimization Standard Attractors Hierarchy Evolutionary ‘Left Hand’ of Change Los Angeles New Computational Phase Space New York ‘Opening’ Palo Alto Compu (Evo. Devo) (Intersection) Development ‘Right Hand’ of Change Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’ © 2007 Accelerating. org
Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Triad: At Least Three Universal Telos (Values/Goals/Drives/Ethics) in Complex Systems Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Three functional processes (telos) can be observed in: · Physical Systems · Chemical Systems · Biological Systems · Societal Systems · Technological Systems · Our Universe as a System Using the ECD model, we can look at complex adaptive systems as either: 1. Adaptive Systems (making their evo and devo processes implicit), 2. Evo Devo Systems (making their adaptive/comp. processes implicit), or 3. Evo, Compu and Devo Systems (keeping all three perspectives explicit).
Universal Evolution and Development: Dichotomous Processes Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Key Conjectures Evolution causes ongoing unpredictability and novelty. Development causes cyclic predictability and stability. Evolution drives most unique local patterns. Development drives most predictable global patterns. Evolution is intelligence/adaptation accumulation. Development is intelligence/adaptation preservation. Life, Intelligence, and the Universe use both evo and devo processes to emerge and persist. Individually, each process has conflicting and contrasting aims (functions, purposes, telos). Together, they are complementary, and a complementary evo devo teleology must exist. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto The more consciously we are aware of this, the better we can understand, value, and work with both. © 2007 Accelerating. org
Biological Complexity Can Be Analyzed From Three Fundamental Perspectives Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Mature evo-devo theory will need to explain: 1. evolutionary experiment/creativity/divergence, 2. developmental constraint/conservatism/convergence, and 3. accelerating organismic adaptation/plasticity/intelligence Adaptation (Organism) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Evolution, Reductionism Development, Wholism
Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Examples: Experimentation + Selection + Convergent Unification Acceleration Studies Foundation l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto l l ‘Quantum Darwinism’ in the transition from quantum to classical (relativity, thermo, classical mechanics) physics (Blume-Kohout and Zurek 2005) Transition from chaotic/unpredictable to linear/integrable models/physical regimes Invariant vs creative/unpredictable emergences in cellular automata (Game of Life, Wolfram) Stellar nucleosynthesis (Wallenberg) Biogenesis (Smith and Morowitz 2006) Multicellularity (Newman and Bhat 2008) ‘Neural Darwinism’ in brain development (Edelman 1989) Cognitive selectionism (thinking) (Calvin 1985) Evolutionary psychology (Wright 1998) Cultural, ‘memetic’ selection (Dawkins, Aunger) Technological ‘technetic’ selection (Kelly, Blackmore) Evolutionary computation and artificial life (Koza, Sipper) Cosmological natural selection (Smolin 1992) © 2007 Accelerating. org
Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Triad: Three Common Quantitative Relationships in Complex Systems S curve Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Power law Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Normal curve
Three Generic Perspectives on Selection? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Johnson, Norman. 2000. Importance of Diversity: Reconciling Natural Selection and Noncompetitive Processes, Ann NY Acad Sci 901: 54 -66. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto 1. Evo Selection (power law spreadouts, competition) 2. Devo Selection (log-normal centricity, cooperation) 3. Evo. Devo Selection (punctuated equilibrium, alternating punctuation and stabilization). S curve Power law Punctuating and Stabilizing Selection Bell curve (Organism) Divergent Selection (Competitive) Evo / “Natural Selection” Self-Organizing Selection (Cooperative) Devo / “Self-Organization”
Power law / Pareto / Long-tail curves How networks of evolutionary variety fill a niche Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Scale Free Network Computing – Internet, World Wide Web (‘preferential attachment’) Biology – Metabolic, gene, and protein networks, allometric scaling Markets – Stock market crashes, equity networks (stock prices) Socioeconomics – Pareto’s law (income distribution, contacts, etc. ), learning/experience curves (cost per cumulative units produced) Engineering – Constructal law (trees, rivers, lungs, circulation) Catastrophe – Size/frequency of earthquakes, fires, epidemics Physics – Phase transitions (heat capacity, correlation length), emergence of order in an expanding universe (Layzer, Chaisson), inverse square laws (gravitation, EM & acoustic Los Angeles intensity), black body radiation, snowflake growth… New York Complexity – SOC, self-similarity, fractals, and scaling laws Palo Alto Good Biz Text Great Pop Sci Text
Normal and Log-Normal / Gaussian / Bell curves How developmental processes produce future order Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “Results from a large number of small effects that act additively (normal) or multiplicatively (log-normal curve) and independently. ” Normal curve (special case): Biology – collective physiological variables (blood pressure, milk prod. , etc. ), heritable & learned capacities (intelligence/g, etc. ) Engineering – deviations from target values Modeling – measurement error (variation) Log-normal curve (most common case): Biology – mature sizes (length, height, skin area, weight), organ sizes, gene expression rates, m. RNA stability, species abund. Socioeconomics – exchange rates, price indexes, ‘rationalizing’ of global wealth (started with a power law), spoken sentence lengths Los Angeles Physics – resources in Earth’s crust, rainfall, air pollution, aerosol New York Palo particle size, wireless comm. attenuation Alto Good IQ Text Log-normal Distributions across the Sciences, Limpert etal. , Bio. Science 51(5), 2001. Great Article!
Global income distribution is turning log-normal Acceleration Studies Foundation l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Global income distribution is normalizing, as a developmental trend (Gapminder. org). 1970: Isolated economies 2000: Connected, flattening © 2007 Accelerating. org
S curves and B curves / Life cycle curves How complex systems (coll. & indiv. ) perform over time Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit ♦ Biology - how populations grow in finite niches or under competition ♦ Epidemiology - the spreading and saturation of epidemics, AIDS, etc. ♦ Psychology – cumulative learning/performance in a new domain ♦ Technology - how new technologies diffuse and substitute ♦ Energy - diffusion and substitution of primary energy sources ♦ Industry - learning/experience curves in production ♦ Market - new product share growth ♦ Security - crime rates in developing cities, planetary conflict rates ♦ Demographics - human population growth on a finite planet Los Angeles ♦ Transportation – performance and capacity of each platform New York Palo Alto Good Intro Text Nice Grad Text
Evo Devo Theory in Politics: Innovation vs. Sustainability (Both are Fundamental!) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Evo devo theory argues for process balance in political dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability Developmental sustainability without continuous change/creativity creates sterility, clonality, overdetermination, and adaptive weakness (Maoism). Evolutionary creativity (innovation) without sustainability creates chaos, entropy, and volatility that is not naturally stable/recycling (Unregulated Capitalism). © 2009 Accelerating. org
Evo Devo Theory in Politics: Republican vs. Democrat (Both are Fundamental!) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Evo devo theory suggests that both Republican and Democratic platforms bridge the evo devo political center in two complementary ways. That makes each integral, fundamental dialogs (among other integral evo devo mixes) likely to be long-term stable across cultures. Republicans are Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Social-Political Issues Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Economic Issues Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Democrats are Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Social-Political Issues Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Economic Issues © 2009 Accelerating. org
Competition and Collaboration Must Be Actively Balanced in Adaptive Cultures, Orgs, and Individuals Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l Competition breeds both innovation and inequality, which democracy must “rationalize” (e. g. , regulating rich-poor divides). l Both positive-sum games (science, capitalism, morality) and zero-sum games (most laws, taxes, budgets) are prevalent. l Collaboration can create intelligence or mobs (balanced by rep. democracy) and groupthink (balanced by individual liberty). + Adaptation + (Organism) – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto – Evolution, Competition Development, Collaboration
Michael Conrad’s Computational ‘Tradeoff Principle’ Adaptability vs. Programmability vs. Efficiency Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit A computing system cannot have all of the following properties: 1. High evolutionary variation capacity (adaptability) (Evo) 2. High formal/structural programmability (Devo). 3. High computational efficiency (adaptation) (Evo. Devo) The “DNA-Computer Disanalogy”: DNA is strong in 1, very weak in 2 (programmability) and 3 (efficiency). Digital computers are strong in 2, weak in 1 (variation capacity) and 3. Generalized Computational Efficiency (Adaptation) Evolutionary Variation Capacity Developmental Programmability Los Angeles New York Palo Alto M. 1988. The Price of Programmability. In: Herken, R. (Ed. ), The Conrad Universal Turing
2. Toward a Science of Universal Development - Why are the leading edge of complex dynamics increasingly dense and efficient with respect to Space, Time, Energy, and Matter (STEM) resources over universal time, and where is this (developmental? ) trend headed, in the physical limit? - What is the function of universal accelerating change (complexity emergence) from a developmental perspective? - What mechanisms constrain universal development? - What are development’s large-scale morphological dynamics? - What causes the (macroscopic, statistical) smoothness in Earth’s complexity acceleration, and are hidden developmental systems (resiliency, immunity) protecting it’s smoothness?
STEM Compression and Free Energy Rate Density Increase A Driver of Accelerating Complexity Emergence
From the Big Bang to Complex Stars: The Decelerating Phase of Universal Development Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology: The Accelerating Phase of Universal Development Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Carl Sagan’s “Cosmic Calendar” (Dragons of Eden, 1977) Each month is roughly 1 billion years. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
A U-Shaped Curve of Change: Inner Space to Outer Space Back to Inner Space Again Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Big Bang Singularity Developmental Singularity? 50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds 50 yrs ago: Machina silico 400, 000 yrs: Matter 100, 000 yrs ago: H. sap. 1 B yrs: Protogalaxies Los Angeles New York Palo Alto 8 B yrs: Earth
Emergence Acceleration: Independent Assessments (Preliminary Data) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Ray Kurzweil, 2006
We Live in a STEM+IC Universe Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Space, Time, Energy, Matter Info and Comp. Increasingly Understood Poorly Known STEM Efficiency/Density/Compression is the ever decreasing STEM resources required for any standard physical process or computation. This seems to be the “engine” of accelerating change. “STEM Efficiency is Doing More, Better, with Less. ” Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Free Energy (Phi, Φ) of Dissipative Structures Traces out a Universal Hyperbolic Curve Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Free Energy Rate Density (Φ) Substrate (ergs/sec/gm) Galaxies 0. 5 Stars 2 Planets (Early) 75 Ecosystems 900 Animals (hum. body) 20, 000 (10^4) Brains (human) 150, 000 (10^5) Culture (human) 500, 000 (10^5) Modern Engines 10^5 to 10^8 Intel 8080 of the 1970's 10^10 Pentium II of the 1990's (10^11) Global AI of the 21 st C 10^12+ Los Angeles New York Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Palo Alto Evolution, 2001 Free energy rate density values in hierarchically emergent CAS. © 2009 Accelerating. org
World Economic Performance Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit GDP Per Capita in Western Europe, 1000 – 1999 A. D. This curve looks quite smooth on a macroscopic scale. Note the “knee of the curve” occurs circa 1850, at the Industrial Revolution. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
The J Curve Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit First-Order Components are Growth-Limited Hierarchical Substrates (S and B Curves) Second-Order Hyperbolic Growth Emergence Singularities and a Limit Singularity Examples: Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar Chaisson’s Phi (FERD) Global Economic Performance Sci & Tech Performance Metrics Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Sustained Positive Feedback Loops are Rare in Biology EDU Thesis: Many (most? ) are Tied to System Replication Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Positive Feedback/Accel-to-Emergence Examples: l Adolescent growth spurt prior to puberty l Courtship behavior leading to mate selection l Competitions tied to nesting and reproduction l Monthly ovulation, a positive feedback chemical competition for the ‘fittest egg’ (Graafian follicle) l Copulation leading to male and female orgasm l Gamete competition leading to fertilization Zygotic development is an energetic deceleration after fertilization. (a “U”-shaped energetics curve). Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Reproduction and Birth are Energetically Accelerative in Complex Living Systems Acceleration Studies Foundation l Salthe, Development and Evolution, 1990 A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto l l l Note the energy flow trends in each phase of the life cycle (birth, growth, reproduction, senescence) of a developing organism. Only reproduction and birth phases are accelerative Stellar reproduction (via supernovas) has the same energetics profile. What else looks like this? Key Question: In an evo devo universe, does complexity accelerate because it is engaged in a process of universal reproduction? © 2009 Accelerating. org
STEM Compression: A Curious Process of Universal Development Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Our universe is apparently constructing special zones of local intelligence (complexity, modeling capacity, meaningful information) which are measurably and predictably more space, time, energy and matter dense, or STEM dense (meaning increasingly localized in space, accelerated in time, and dense in energy and matter flows), and STEM efficient (in space, time, energy, and matter resources used per standardized computation or physical transformation) (Smart 1999, 2000, 2002 b). l Space Compression (Increasing Locality of CAS Hierarchy) l Time Compression (accelerating change, Cosmic Calendar) l Energy Compression (free energy rate density) l Matter Compression (nanotech, cities, high density comp. ) © 2007 Accelerating. org
STEM Compression Creates a “Paradise of Resources” for Leading Edge Computation Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Our machines are stunningly more STEM efficient with each new generation. Our main candidates for future computational technology (nanomolecular and quantum computing, reversible logic, etc. ) require little or no energy. We are all moving to increasingly energy efficient, sustainable, and virtual cities. Weight of GDP per capita goes down in all developed Service Economies. Global energy intensity (energy consumption per capita or GDP) has been saturating or declining for almost three decades in much of the developed world.
Why are Leading-Edge Developmental Niches Increasingly Local in Both Space and Time? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Biogenesis required a special iron-rich, rocky planet, and billennia. Multicellular organisms required a Cambrian Explosion, and millennia. Human culture required a Linguistic Explosion, and tens of thousands of years. Science and technology revolutions required a Social Enlightenment, a fraction of the preserved biomass of Earth’s extinct species, and hundreds of years. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Intelligent computers will apparently be able to model the birth and death of the universe with the refuse thrown away annually by one American family. In tens of years?
Buckminster Fuller: STEM Compression as Ephemeralization (Our ‘Weightless’ Economy) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit In Nine Chains to the Moon, 1938, poet and polymath Buckminster Fuller coined "Ephemeralization, ” positing that in nature, "all progressions are from material to abstract" and "eventually hit the electrical stage. " (e. g. , sending virtual bits to do physical work) Due to principles like superposition, entanglement, negative waves, and tunneling, the world of the quantum (single electrons, photons, etc. ) appears even more ephemeral than the world of collective electricity. In Critical Path, 1981, Fuller called ephemeralization, "the invisible chemical, metallurgical, and electronic production of ever-more-efficient and satisfyingly effective performance with the investment of ever-less weight and volume of materials per unit function formed or performed". In Synergetics 2, 1983, he called it "the principle of doing ever more with ever less weight, time and energy per each given level of functional performance” Los Angeles New York Palo Alto This trend has also been called “virtualization, ” “weightlessness, ” and Space, Time, Energy, Matter (STEM) compression, efficiency, or density.
“Unreasonable” Effectiveness and Efficiency of Science and the Microcosm (Wigner and Mead) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences, Nobel Laureate Eugene Wigner, 1960 After Wigner and Freeman Dyson’s work in 1951, on simple universalities and symmetries in mathematical physics. F=ma E=mc 2 W=(1/2 mv 2) F=-(Gm 1 m 2)/r 2 Commentary on the “Unreasonable Efficiency of Physics in the Microcosm, ” VSLI Pioneer Carver Mead, c. 1980. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto In 1968, Mead predicted we would create much smaller (to 0. 15 micron) multi-million chip transistors that would run far faster and more efficiently. He later generalized this observation to a number of other devices.
Seeing STEM Efficiency and Compression Everywhere in the World Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Barter > Coins > Paper Money > Checks > Pay. Pal Cities (>50% of world population circa 2005) Working in Offices (or telecommuting with coming videophone virtual offices) Wal-Marts, Mega-Stores, 99 Cent Stores (Retail Endgame: Wal-Mart #1 on Fortune 500 since 2001) Flat-Pack Furniture (Ikea) Big Box Retail (Home Depot, Staples) Supply-Chain & Market Aggregators (Dell, Amazon, e. Bay) Local community/Third Space (Starbucks)
Disruptive STEM Compression in Nanospace: Holey Optical Fibers for Microlasers Lasers today can made cheaply only in some areas of the EM spectrum, not including, for example, UV laser light for cancer detection and tissue analysis. It was discovered in 2004 that a hollow optical fiber filled with hydrogen gas, a device known as a "photonic crystal, " can convert microlasers to wavelengths previously unavailable. May also enable hundred terahertz photonic computing. Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Above: SEM image of a photonic crystal fiber. Note periodic array of air holes. The central defect (missing hole in the middle) acts as the fiber's core. The fiber is about 40 microns across. This conversion system is a million times (106) more energy efficient than all previous converters. These are the kinds of jaw -dropping efficiency advances that drive the ICT revolution. Such advances are due even more to human discovery (in physical microspace) than to human creativity, which is why they have accelerated throughout the 20 th century, even as we remain uncertain exactly why they continue to occur.
Inner Space: Using Quantum Computers for the Simulation and Investigation of Quantum Processes Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l Quantum Computing is a Vast, Uncharted Investigation Space (‘Hilbert Space’). l Today’s Early Quantum S&T Programs: – – – Crypto, Factoring, Search Algorithms Secret Communications (Quantum Internet) Jon P. Dowling QST @ LSU Imaging and Sensing (‘No Emission’ Imaging) l No Exponential Advantage of Quantum vs Classical Computers for NP-Hard Problems (Scott Aaronson) l So What is their Future “Killer Application”? – – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto – Modeling Quantum Processes (“Turning atoms into bits”) Continue riding our Learning Curves in Materials Science Positive feedback for nano, opto, quantum computing. A 24 qubit quantum computer can instantly model ground state of a Thorium atom. Far too difficult to do classically. “Long run: “Programmable Matter? ” (Wil Mc. Carthy)
STEM Compression Inner Space, Not Outer Space, may be our ‘Final Frontier’ Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Mirror Worlds, David Gelernter, 1998: Real structures in “outer space” (the physical world) are being modeled rapidly better and faster in inner, virtual space (the digital world). By comparison to inner space, outer space is: • Computationally very simple and tractable (transparent) • A vastly slower substrate for evolutionary development • Rapidly encapsulated by our simulation science • Possibly a “rear view mirror” on the developmental trajectory of emergence of universal intelligence versus Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Non-Autonomous ISS Autonomous Human Brain
Portal Pathways and Evolutionary Convergence Constraints on Universal Development
How Many Eyes Are Developmentally Optimal? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Evolution tried this experiment. Development calculated an operational optimum. Some reptiles (e. g. Xantusia vigilis, and certain skinks) still have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
How Many Wheels on an Automobile are Developmentally Optimal? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device. Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
‘Search Basins’ and ‘Portal Pathways’: Developmental Portal Pathways Must Exist Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Key Research Questions: l Are portals/bottlenecks that lead to increasing complexity plentiful or rare? l Are such portals/bottlenecks sequence-dependent or randomly traversible? l Are such portals convergent, divergent, or non-vergent (as depicted here)? Los Angeles Crutchfield, J. P. 2001. When Evolution is Revolution: Origins of Innovation. In: Crutchfield, J. P. and Schuster, P. New York (eds. ), Evolutionary Dynamics: Exploring the Interplay of Selection, Neutrality, Accident and Function. Palo Alto
Marbles, Landscapes, and Portal Pathways (Evolution, Adaptive Systems, and Development) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit The marbles roll around on the landscape (system), each taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths predictably converge (development) on low points (“attractors”, portal pathways) at the bottom of each basin. Los Angeles New York STEM compression is a key feature of the attractors. Palo Alto
Portal Pathway for Complex Chemical Evo Devo – Carbon Chemistry Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Genesis of Chemical Elements l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Carbon is the only way forward to complex (living ) chemistry. Boron and Silicon no longer considered viable enough to form autocatalytic cycles. Note that four of six most common elements in life chemistry (CHNOPS), and both of the great oxidizers, oxygen, and sulfur, are formed in small, Population I stars like our Sun
Portal Pathway for Cells – Lipids and RNA Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Lipids and RNA may be the only way from organic chemistry to cells! RNA, lipids/cell membranes, and protein precursors (amino acids) all form spontaneously in Earth’s chemistry (and precursors on meteorites). l Nucleobases (AGCT/U) form from cyanide, acetylene and water. l Sugars form from alkali and formaldehyde l Phosphates are released from schreibersite in meteorites (“solar system assist”), and (a little) from (modern) volcanic vents. l Sutherland et. al. , mixing sugar and nucleobase precursors and phosphate got 2 -aminooxazole (partial sugar, partial nucleobase) l Exposure to intense solar UV in shallow water (“solar system assist”) destroys the incorrect forms of nucleobases, leaving behind C and U. l l RNA is presently the only known molecule that can both reproduce itself and catalyze protein production (ribozymes) RNA later learned to store itself more permanently as DNA (RNA World Hypothesis), but DNA may not be the only more stable nucleic acid. Los Angeles Alonzo Ricardo and Jack Szostak. Life on Earth, Scientific American, Sept 2009. Matthew W. Powner, Beatrice Gerland & John D. Sutherland. Synthesis of activated pyrimidine ribonucleotides in New York prebiotically plausible conditions, Nature V. 460 May 13, 2009. Palo Alto
Portal Pathway for Visible-Infrared Photosynthesis Water, Oxygen/Nitrogen Atmosphere Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Only visible-infrared light gets through our atmosphere and the first few feet of our water with any efficiency. Water-based photosynthesis (blue-green algae, Photosystem I) had to evolve (develop) inside this narrow fitness region (portal path), and is likely chained to this pathway everywhere else as well.
Independent Convergence on Photosynthesis Portal Pathway? Our Sun’s Spectral Output is Optimized for Visible-Infrared Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York l Palo Alto Our Sun puts out almost all its radiant energy in the spectral band absorbable by our atmosphere and water and useful to life, and virtually none in those regions harmful to life Are these spectral fits independent or coupled processes? For example, could solar wind sort atmospheric gases like this? Is this Weak Anthropic Principle (observer dependent sorting), Strong Anthropic Principle (Universal Devel. Process), or some other process? Random probability of such a fortuitous Sun-Earth fit seems quite low.
Portal Paths, Variation, and Adaptation in Biology: A Few Tentative Historical Examples Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Portal Paths Variation Adaptation Carbon chemistry (for all viable life) Other organic molecular Specific supramolecular species (B, Si are false structures of most cell variation, not viable) components Replic. carbohydrates (RNA world) and fats (lipid membranes), then proteins (modern cells) Subtypes and specific structural and enzymatic uses, other organic polymers DNA (inert, replicating sugar phosphate) as stable info carrier Energetics: H 2 S chemo Various visible light Blue-Grn photosystms, -synthesis (1 st life) later, frequencies (other freq’s tri- and quad-chromatic visible light (photosynth are false variation) vision and vision) Nucleated cells (for complex life) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Location & number of nucleations Bilateral symmetry, two L vs. R asymmetries eyes, hands, etc. (for (other symm. choices tool manipulation) are false variation) Mito + Nuclear DNA Left-sided heart, rightsided liver in humans
Portal Paths, Variation, and Adaptation in Society: A Few Tentative Historical Examples Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Portal Paths Variation Adaptation Agricultural-Domestic Society Industrial Society Variety of machine designs, energy sources Manchester factories, Ford’s assembly line Regulated Capitalism with Property Rights Variety of private and collective property schemes ‘Freer-Market’, Regul. , and Autocratic Capitalism Rep. Democracy, Soc. Justice, Entitlements Order of voting/rights/ entitlemnt acquisitions (child, women, slaves) Freer vs. Stricter Social Democracies, National Justice Codes Information-Automation Society Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Variety of plants/farming Feudal, Small Farm, animals/husbandry Sharecropper, etc. Order and variety of automations, degree of job protection, IP protection, public benefits (education, etc. ) Japanese automation & xenophobia, US free market, Scandinavian mixed economy, African leapfrogging
Portal Paths, Variation, and Adaptation in Technology: A Few Tentative Historical Examples Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Portal Paths Variation Adaptation Round and flaked rocks Variations in size, for group rock-throwing shape, composition The wheel: 1 -wheeled One to multi-wheeled barrows, 2 -wheel bikes, vehicles, active and 4 -wheeled carts & cars passive balancing. Each culture’s mix of one, two, three, four, and more wheeled vehicles Bilateral road traffic symmetry L vs. R asymmetries L-sided in one country, right-sided in another Gunpowder, cannons, and guns Many types and combinations. Fireworks in China, no guns in Japan for 250 yrs Combustion engines (external and internal) Type of organic burned Variety of usable engine (wood, coal, oil, gas) designs, fuel mixes. Electricity Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Particular Acheulean tool kits (1. 7 m-200 Kya) DC vs AC, voltage diffs Competing standards, each locally useful Computers and human- Variety of engineering surpassing robots solutions & strategies Diff. blends of employment vs. automation.
Evo vs. Devo: Fanout, Adaptation, Portal Pathways Understanding Variation, Selection, and Convergence/Conservation Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit If the tape of life were played twice on two Earth-like environments (astrobiology) or in two Universes with same init. conditions (evo devo U): 1. Devo portal paths (grey pinchers) would be predictably the same/similar. 2. Evo fanouts to generate selectable diversity, and most (95%? ) selections/ adaptations on the way to devo portals would be unpredictably different. Evo Fanout Devo Portal Pathway Evo. Devo Adaptation (Competition, Cooperation) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Information is “a difference that makes a difference. ” Evolution generates/accumulates info (perhaps 95% of it? ) Development conserves/sustains info (perhaps 5% of it? ) Evo. Devo selects, adapts info (turns info knowledge, wisdom, etc. ), sometimes punctuating/innovating, sometimes stabilizing/optimizing.
Development as Evolutionary Convergence (Homoplasy) - I Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto l. Some homoplasies greatly advance individual and cultural information processing and adaptation in a broad range of environments, for the first species that acquire them. l. Simon Conway Morris (Life’s Solution, 2004): eyes, jointed limbs, body plans, emotions, imagination, language, opposable thumbs, tool use, math, science, etc. l. The streamlined shape of fish fins is always first created as an evolutionary morphological experiment, but must persist in the genes of all organisms seeking to move rapidly through water on all Earth-like planets, as a universal developmental constraint imposed by the global physics of our universe. l. In an evo devo universe, such advances are ‘evolutionary ratchets’ (function randomly acquired but statistically irreversible once acquired, across a broad range of environments), a type of developmental optima (for a given level of environmental complexity) in all universes of our type. © 2007 Accelerating. org
Development as Evolutionary Convergence (Homoplasy) - II Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Many homoplasies look like developmental attractors in an adaptive informational physical universe: l Organic (carbon) chem (vs. silicon, boron, etc. ) l Autocatalytic sets (Eigen, Varela, Kauffman) l Protein, sugar, fat precursors (amino acids, purines and pyrimidines, pre-lipids) l RNA as enzyme and code (Woese) l Dynamical patterning modules (Newman & Bhat 2008) l Eyes, body plans, limbs, joints, wings, etc. (Morris) l Bilateral symmetry, binocular vision, tetrapod form l Bipedalism, opposable thumbs, anthropoid form l Gestural, oral, written mimicry (languages) l Tool use (rock, spear, lever, rope, wheel, pulley) l Internal combustion engine, telegraph, internet l Math, science, democracy, computers, etc. © 2007 Accelerating. org
Evolutionary Convergence as a ‘Directional’ Signal (of Universal Development) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto The eye has arisen genetically at least five different times, in lineages as diverse as snails and jellyfish. The ‘camera-eye’ emerged independently in cephalopods (octopus) and vertebrates (whale, us). Cephalopod eyes are better built! Intelligence (cognitive maps, memory, mind, selfawareness, emotion) all convergent. Cetacean, ape, and crow intelligence are all strikingly similar. Different molecular genetic pathways are now known for some convergences (e. g. , antifreeze in Northern vs. Southern hemisphere coldwater fish) Evolutionary convergence experiments now underway Ex: Richard Lenski, e. coli, 40, 000 generations, est. tens to hundreds of substitutions in parallel populations. Adaptive substitutions are seen in the same few genes.
“Convergent Evolution” (Universal Development): Troodon and the Dinosauroid Hypothesis Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Dale Russell, 1982: Anthropoid forms as a global developmental attractor. A number of small dinosaurs (raptors and oviraptors) developed bipedalism, binocular vision, complex hands with opposable thumbs, and brain-to-body ratios equivalent to modern birds. They were intelligent pack-hunters of both large and small animals (including our mammalian precursors) both diurnally and nocturnally. They would likely have become the dominant planetary species due to their superior intelligence, hunting, and manipulation skills without the K-T event 65 million years ago.
Inglehart’s Developmental Values Map: Do All Cultures Migrate to the Upper Right, On Diff. Evolutionary Paths? Acceleration Studies Foundation Examples: A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Secularism (human-derived values) Ecumenicalism (seeing wisdom in all faiths) Rationality (logic+empiricism) Self Expression Subjective Well Being Quality of Life Sustainability World Awareness Future Orientation Political Moderation Interpersonal Trust Casualness Los Angeles New York worldvaluessurvey. org Palo Alto It seems that everyone ends up like Sweden, more or less.
Evolutionary Convergence to the Superorganism? The stunningly niche-dominant social insects Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Why are only 2% of the 900, 000 insect species social insects? Why does this 2% weigh more than the mass of all other insects combined (and is even 80% of all animal biomass in the Amazon rainforest)? Escalation of power/mass/intelligence in competition (Evolution and Escalation, Vermeij) They use both social and individual levels of computation (Lucifer Principle, Bloom). Competitive exclusion once the social computation niche is occupied. Do social insects cause most insect extinctions (invasion theory) Are humans now doing the same thing, but on a vastly smaller scale the social insects before us?
Terminal Differentiation and Ergodicity A Morphology of Universal Development
Saturation in Macroscale S Curves: a. k. a. Terminal Differentiation of the ‘Tree’ of Development Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Genesis of Chemical Elements Note that four of six most common elements in life (and both of the great oxidizers, oxygen, and sulfur) are formed in small, Pop I stars like our Sun Metazoan Cell Types (‘Tree’ of Embryonic Development) Family Origination Rates On Earth Evolution and Escalation, Vermiej, 1987 Los Angeles Saturation occurs in the development of complex adaptive systems at every level New York of universal hierarchy, from cosmic elements to cell types to family types. Accelerating. org Palo Alto © 2007
Metazoan Toolkit: Pre-Cambrian Accelerating Emergence of Conserved Phenotypic-Genetic Structure and Process Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto J, Gerhart Kirschner M. 2007. "The theory of facilitated variation". PNAS USA. 104(S 1): 8582– 9.
Facilitated Variation Thesis: Terminal Differentiation in Metazoan Toolkit Since the Cambrian Acceleration Studies Foundation l Functional innovation at the gene product level (protein and functional RNA evolution) has nearly stopped since the Cambrian (570 mya)! l Almost all phenotypic innovation in the Cambrian Explosion and since has been in gene regulatory networks (regulation, phase three) since. “New regulation specifies new combinations, amounts, and functional states of those (core) components to act at particular times and places in the animal. ” A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto J, Gerhart Kirschner M. 2007. "The theory of facilitated variation". PNAS USA. 104(S 1): 8582– 9.
Ergodicity (State Space ‘Closure’): Terminal Differentiation in a Mathematical Context Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Astronomical discoveries and discovery rate, projected to 2200 (Martin Harwit, Cosmic Discovery, 1981).
3. Developmental Singularity (Black Hole Destiny, Transcension) Hypothesis - Where does universal intelligence go as it develops? - In an evo devo universe, are successful universal intelligences developmental replicators, constrained to a black hole destiny? - As with biology, can such intelligences (slightly) alter their developmental parameters and (more broadly) alter their multiversal environment during each replication cycle?
Fine-Tuning Problem (Philosophy, not yet Science!) Is our universe “self-tuned” for life, complexity emergence? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Some (yet not all) ‘fundamental parameters’ of our universe seem very finely and unreasonably “tuned” for the emergence of life and complexity in a universal environment, as devel. genes are “tuned” for the emergence of complex organism in a biological environment: l Gravitational coupling constant l Electromagnetic coupling constant l Fine structure constant l Strong nuclear force l Weak nuclear force l Proton/electron mass ratio l Mass and energy of the universe l Expansion rate of the universe l Uniformity and entropy level of the universe l Speed of light l Nuclear energy levels of Be, C, and O. l Another dozen or so “special” constants… Los Angeles New York Palo Alto There are now twenty six or so ‘empirical’ parameters in the standard model of particle physics, and cosmology. More to come?
What are black holes? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Lee Smolin’s Answer: Developmental Systems Engaged in ‘Cosmological Natural Selection’ Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit At least 8 of the 20+ standard model parameters appear fine tuned for: – black hole production – multi-billion year old Universes (capable of creating Life) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Lee Smolin, The Life of the Cosmos, 1996
Cosmological Natural Selection (CNS) Acceleration Studies Foundation l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Perhaps the first viable astrophysical evo devo universe model to date. Quentin Smith (1990, 2000) Lee Smolin (1992, 1994, 1997, 2006). Seeks to explain the ‘fine tuning’ or ‘improbable universe’ problem (Leslie 1989, Rees 1999, Barrow 2002, 2007). 19+15, or 20, or 6, or ? ? fundamental parameters, an ‘economical but ungainly’ set, like developmental genes. We may eliminate some, yet add more as particle physics advances. In Smolin’s simulations (1992, 1994, 1997), eight of approximately twenty parameters appear fine tuned both for long-lived universes capable of generating complex life and for the production of hundreds of trillions of black holes (‘fecundity’ of production) l CNS proposes the special values of our universal parameters are the result of an evolutionary selection Los Angeles process involving universe reproduction via black holes, New York (and thus universe adaptation in the multiverse). Palo Alto l © 2007 Accelerating. org
CNS is Testable By Simulation Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit ‘Baby universes’ exploring universal phenospace on a phylogenetic tree, with a low branching rate and frequent terminal branching in this cartoon (Adapted from Linde 1994). l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto l Systematics diagram. Living organisms exploring a phylogenetic tree in evo-devo biology Just as we see developmental (conserved, critical, internally selected) and evolutionary (varied, externally selected) genes in biological phenospace, we must find both developmental (fine tuned) and evolutionary (variable) fundamental parameters in our own universe’s particular set of initial conditions. Per Smolin (1996) and Vaas (1998) this prediction is already (and increasingly) testable by simulation.
Black Hole Strangeness: They are Optimal Computational and (One-Way) Time Travel Devices Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Black hole time dilation. Clocks near a black hole appear to slow down to an external observer, and stop altogether at the event horizon. Inside a black hole, external clocks move arbitrarily fast. Black holes are the most efficient computational systems known. tflip = tcomm on the event horizon (Lloyd 2000). Seth Lloyd, Ultimate physical limits to computation, Nature, 2000.
Our Self-Fractionating Universe: A Passive Black Hole Merger Scenario Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit 1. At the onset of acceleration, we see the largest number of galaxies we ever will. l l Los Angeles l New York Palo Alto 2. The visible region grows, but the overall universe grows even faster, so we see a smaller fraction of what exists 3. Distant galaxies (not bound to us by gravity) move out of our range of view. Gravity pulls nearby galaxies together. About six billion yrs ago, our universe’s expansion rate began to accelerate. Our local universe is now self-fractionating into local ‘islands’ (supergalaxies). Our supergalaxy will include only the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies (Nagamine and Loeb 2003) Each of these supergalaxies must apparently engage in evolutionarily unique mergers (natural selection) among all their developed intelligent civilizations. From the black hole intelligence’s time perspective, such mergers will occur virtually instantaneously, in no subjective time. This is because black holes, and only black holes, are a ‘one-way time travel device. ’ Note the apparent advantages of this structure for evolutionary variation, natural selection, and development, from the perspective of the accelerating intelligence.
The Fermi Paradox Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit So where are the ET’s? Andromeda Galaxy is only 2 mill light yrs away Los Angeles New York Palo Alto A Dev. Sing. Prediction: Our Milky Way Galaxy is just SETI Fossils by 2080 45, 000 light years in radius. Earth-like planets 2 -5 Billion years older than us closer to the core. “Answering the Fermi Paradox, ” John Smart, 2003
Is “Hyperspace” the Future of Universal Intelligence? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Do STEM compression, Intelligence, Interdependence, and Immunity lead us to Inner Space, Not Outer Space? If so, what’s on the other side of an Inner Space transition? Are Quantum Theory, String Theory, M-Theory, and Multiverse Theory consistent with a “Black Hole Analogous” Transcension / Developmental ‘Destiny’ for Intelligence? Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Science has started to ask such questions, but we are still a long way from knowing the answers…
Brief Conclusions A Few Implications of the Framework
Our Universe Appears to Have Both Evolutionary Possibility and Developmental Purpose Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit The more we study the dual processes of evo devo, the better we discover how a simple yet specially-tuned background, plus diverse local creativity (foreground), allows the self-organization of complex systems. l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Evolutionary variation is generally increasing and becomes more STEM efficient with time and substrate. Development, in the leading-edge, most complex systems, seems on an accelerating local trajectory to an intelligent destination. Humans are both evolutionary & developmental actors, creating and catalyzing a new substrate transition. We will need to create adequate evolutionary generativity, (emergent uniqueness) and protect adequate developmental sustainability (niche construction) on this extraordinary journey.
Three Primary Foresight Skills Future Creation, Discovery, Mgmt Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Futures Studies is concerned with “three P’s”, or Possible, Probable, and Preferable futures. In other words, foresight professionals try to create, discover, and manage (“CDM”) the future. l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Creation (“Possible”) – personal, collective, and entrepreneurial tools and strategies for imagining and creating experimental futures, innovation, exploratory research and development, creative thinking, social networking Discovery (“Probable”) – forecasting methods, metrics, statistical trends, history of prediction, technology roadmapping, science and systems theory, risk analysis, marketing research Management (“Preferable”) – environmental scanning, competitive intelligence, networking, scenario development, risk mgmt (insurance), hedging, enterprise robustness, planning, matter, energy, space, and time management systems, positive-sum outcomes © 2007 Accelerating. org
Evo Devo Foresight: Implications of the EDU Framework for Humanity - I Acceleration Studies Foundation l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Our History, Present, and Future can be rewritten as: – l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Evolutionary choices (Evo, 95%), developmental forces (Devo, 5%) and the Learning/Simulation increase (Info, 100%) from their interaction Evo, Info, and Devo Teleology. Innovation, learning, and sustainability goals, drives, and values constrain humans and our tech, and will constrain AIs to come. Sustainable Innovation. Devo and evo polarized countries, parties, and people exist. We need both. 95/5 Rule. Don’t overconstrain (too much devo), don’t see change as unstructured (too much evo). Seed, Org, Envir (SOE) Intelligence Partitioning. – – Biological immortality is a major, mistaken fantasy We need a new theory of identity/intelligence
Evo Devo Foresight: Implications of the Framework for Humanity - II Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l Hierarchy and Acceleration. – – l STEM Compression will continue on Earth – – l Human cities will only get more STEM efficient/dense STEM dense tech (nanotech, networks, sims) will continue to deliver unreasonable returns Inner Space increasingly encompasses Outer Space – – – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto We are in a purposeful, accelerative, emergent process. Humans aren’t the end of the line. We will ‘pass the baton. ’ Increasing importance of the human mind and heart (education, beliefs, emotion, reason) in culture, politics, economics Increasing growth in the value and capacity of the virtual, increasing virtual-physical and human-machine interface Importance of ‘gardening’ our technological extensions (they are the next inner space), and guiding their interaction with the current inner space (human consciousness).
Evo Devo Foresight: Implications of the Framework for Humanity - III Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l Outlines of an Evo – – Devo Theory Two-way exchange is necessary for complexity construction. Feedback is a critical requirement (’ 95%’ of info flow). One-way exchange is useful only for control. (‘ 5%’ info flow, very sparingly used, to avoid overconstraining the system). l Evo Devo Cosmological Natural Selection with Intelligence (Evo Devo CNS-I) – “We are a small piece of the universe, produced by the universe to improve (evo), understand (compu), and care for (devo) the universe, our world, and ourselves. ” l Developmental – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto – Singularity Hypothesis “Everyone else is doing this, and we will meet many of them very soon, in astronomical time. ” Predictions: METI beacons will never be constructed. SETI fossils will be found. ‘Our destiny is density. ’
4. 21 st Century Developmental Futures - Can we model past, present, and future universal dynamics as a hierarchical series of evolutionary search basins and developmental portal pathways? - Can we find reliable predictive signals (STEM compression, evol. convergence, terminal differentiation) of future developmental portal pathways for intelligent civilization? - Can we understand evolution (variation, experiment) and development (hierarchy and replication/ diffusion) enough to know the limits of prediction in evolutionary process, and to identify both imminent convergences and false hierarchies (‘flying car’ futures) in developmental process?
Future Portal Paths in a STEEPS Taxonomy Acceleration Studies Foundation Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Science Technology Acceleration ‘Engines’ Environment Economics Politics Society A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Acceleration ‘Steerers’
21 st Century Developmental Futures: Science Acceleration Studies Foundation Social Sciences - Evo Devo Physics (Qantm vs Rel. ) - STEM Compression/FERD, Inner Space as Developmental Physics - Intelligent Black Holes & Multiverse - Evo Devo Memetics - Developmental models of morality - Predictive use of power law, S, Log normal, Kuznets, other curves Chemical Sciences Engineering Sciences - Evo Devo Chemistry - Biogenesis. RNA+Lipids as only and ubiquitous portal path to cells. - Tree of terminal differentiation for ~10 M Chemical Species A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Physical Sciences - Evo Devo Technetics - Experience curves (cascaded S curves) as a science of human- mediated machine learning - Theory of technological immune systems Biological Sciences Los Angeles New York Palo Alto - Evo-Devo Biology subsumes Darwinian evolutionary theory - Convergent evolution, astrobio as ecosystem macrodevelopment - Biological scaling, terminal diff, emergence & singularity theory. Computer & Info Sciences - Evo Devo Computation (eg, CA’s) - Theory of tech and dev. singularities. - Computational theories of complexity, morality, immunity - Einstein of information theory?
21 st Century Developmental Futures: Technology Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Nanotech & Energy Biotech & Bioinformatics - Exp. nanocomp. growth (SETs, spintronics, optical, quantum). - Exponential nanoenergy growth (PV, fuel cells, nanocapacitors) - Human energy intensity saturation - Massively more bioinformatics. - Better agrobiotech, synthetic bio. - Marginally better biosims and reverse engineering. - Biotech remains underwhelming & a net money-losing invest. sector. Networks & Computing - Exp. network, sensor, platform growth (transparency, capacity) - Exp. growth, var. & specialization in parallel computing - Better bio-inspired computing. AI & Robotics Los Angeles New York Palo Alto - CI, Cybertwins and Valuecosm. - Human-surpassing robots (humbots, robocars). - Modular singularities leading to a generalized tech singularity. Medicine & Enhancement - Massively better tech enhancement (brain & body implants, wearables). - Marginally better bioenhancement (gene therapy, drugs etc. ). - Ever-declining longevity advances. Space - Declining info from astronomy and cosmology, but not astrobiology. - Stratellites, telerobots, end of primates-in-cans-in-vacuum
21 st Century Developmental Futures: Environment, Ecosystem Services, Resources, Populations Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Sustainability finally becomes as important as innovation in global economic-political-social system. Environmental quantification continues to accelerate, ecosystem services keep degrading in short-term (Ehrlich) but are far better protected in longer-term. Natural resources keep decreasing in cost (Julian Simon) and increase in sustainability (regs, recycling). Human birthrates stay on average inversely related to techno-social-economic development (‘demographic transition’). Global population peaks circa 2040, with everdeclining biological human birthrates after.
21 st Century Developmental Futures: Economics, Finance, Business & IP Law Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Technical productivity seen as far more important than GDP. Increasing corporate plutocracy (political & financial influence) since 1950’s. This trend seems very likely to saturate in a networked, transparent, cybertwin world. Continued decreasing rich/poor divide globally (long-term, since 1700’s). Economic development finally spreading to very large countries (China, India) with lowering population growth. Income inequality in a typical developing country first increases, then decreases (Kuznets curve of income inequality) Increasing rich/poor divide in the most economically advanced ‘Great U-Turn’ countries US, UK, Switz. (short-term, since 1970’s). This trend seems very likely to saturate or reverse. Triple bottom line capitalism (financial, social, environmental benefits reporting) as Capitalism 3. 0. Socially responsible investing funds are owned preferentially by women. As gender equity normalizes, SR investing advances. Corporate transparency grows as liberal democracy increases. http: //www. unc. edu/~nielsen/special/s 2. htm and Ackerman et. al. The Political Economy of Inequality, 2000.
21 st Century Developmental Futures: Politics, Policy, Rights, Security, Civil & Constitutional Law Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Global transition from illiberal to liberal democracies (Zakaria) as networks, transparency, and valuecosm advances. Increasingly transparent society (anonymity disappears, privacy protections increase). Ever-rising entitlements, strong civics education (Scandinavian democracies). Eventual equitocracy (Lightman). Ever-rising ‘victimless’ freedoms (Inglehart) American anomaly (nonparliamentary democracy) becomes parliamentary. Los Angeles. The Future of Freedom 2007, The Post-American World, 2008 Zakaria, New York Smith, Palo Alto The American Anomaly: US Politics and Govt. in Comparative Perspective, 2007
21 st Century Developmental Futures: Social Big – Culture, Ethics, Media, Education, Religion Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Progressive decline of avg annual severity of violence (but increasing intensity of rare events) (Pinker) Entertainment, leisure time, travel keep growing (Kahn) Increasing gender, minority and disadvantaged economic, political, and cultural parity (eg. , birthrate sex bias (China, India) disappears forever. True internet television with micropayments (100, 000 channels of specialty content). CI, cybertwin, valuecosm, metaverse-mediated schoolsurpassing education (‘global citizens’, massive new subculture diversity). Steady increase in secular-rational values, particularly post-cybertwin (Inglehart) Reform (ecumenical, tolerant, science-congruent) variants of all major religions gain dominance over fundamentalism.
21 st Century Developmental Futures: Social Medium – Entrepreneurship, Management, OD Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Flextime, jobsharing, sabbaticals keep increasing. More abstract and ‘high-touch’ service jobs available every year (‘getting paid to sing to babies. ’) Innovation is much more abstract, harder to measure, increasingly ‘under the hood’ (happening in machines). More specialized high-tech and science jobs available (job diversity grows). Far more cybertwin-assisted jobs in all categories. Management and org development more routinized, better tuned to human psychology. Advanced human resources rating and training systems. Ratio of highest paid to average paid workers in public companies ‘rationalizes’ to less than 100. http: //www. accelerating. org/articles/huebnerinnovation. html http: //extremeinequality. org
21 st Century Developmental Futures: Social Small – Family, Relationships, Personal Devel. Acceleration Studies Foundation l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto More alternative families, relationships, lifestyles Increasingly informal, casual relationships and behavioral standards (short-term) Increasingly better models of behavior consequences, cybertwinassisted behavior modification (long-term) Continued loss of individual skills (domestication) concomitant with great advances in social complexity Rising narcissism and disempowerment with tech. development short-term (Lasch), increasing self-actualization long-term (Maslow) Progressive change in our concept of identity, and eventually, increasing self-transcendence (cyberself) A postbiological transition is the clear, predictable long-term developmental destination. Our variety of evolutionary paths and levels of enlightenment on the way there seem far less predictable.
The Leader’s Challenge: Guiding Us to “Plural Positive” Futures Acceleration Studies Foundation Plutocratic Zero-Sum Homogeneous “Either/Or” Futures AND Individual advance (Top-Down, Devo) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto versus Social-Tech A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Pluralistic Positive-Sum Differentiated “Both/And” (Bottom-Up, Evo) Calculator Prolif. Automation Incr. Metaverse Adv. Automated Cars Digital Twins Security AND AND AND Math Skills Work/Prod. Skills Study/Reading Skills Driving Skills Self-Empowerment Freedom (to & from)
‘Inevitables’ (Portal Pathways) Experience Great Evolutionary Variation (Unique, Creative Transitions) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Example: Guns in Japan vs. Elsewhere The Japanese govt. was strong enough to ban guns for centuries. First guns (arquebus, right) came with Portuguese in 1543, used in many massed battles. By 1600 Japan had world's best guns, but they were increasingly regulated and finally banned by centralized samurai clan (Tokugawa clan) for 250 years. As inevitables, guns eventually had to reemerge. But they did so on Japanese terms. Japan retains a strong police force and collectivist society today. As of 2006 there are only 175 K registered owners of 340 K guns in Japan. In US: ~40 million gun owners, ~180 million guns. Japan has the lowest gun crime rate of any industrialized nation (93 gun deaths in 1998, vs 36, 000 in US. Japan has 130 M vs. US 300 M citizens). All 175 K gun owners were mass-checked after 2007 Sasebo shooting ‘rampage’ (2 deaths, 6 injuries). 90 were ‘declared unfit to own’ guns. 2008 laws prevent stalkers, spouse abusers, suicidal, and bankrupts from owning guns, including hunting guns, for an extended period of time. Fifteen year sentences for owning illegal guns, death penalty for org. crime murder by gun, police raids on suspected illegal gun owners, etc. Major observation: Every other industrialized nation (Australia, Europe, etc. ) is trending strongly in this postmilitary, postviolent direction (Pinker, Myth of Violence). Just a few outliers (US, Brazil, Mexico, Estonia, etc. ) remain. Gun story foretells a Planetized level of social integration and immunity.