Evidenced-Based Decision Making Coordinated Support to Manage for

Evidenced-Based Decision. Making: Coordinated Support to Manage for Better Development Results July 30 th, 2009 HIGH-LEVEL ADVOCACY FORUM ON STATISTICS Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago Presented by Ms Michelle Gyles-Mc. Donnough, Resident Coordinator of the UN System and Resident Representative, UNDP Barbados and the OECS

Ideally, we should have n n n Effective targeting of social investments towards the neediest and most vulnerable Regular assessments of development progress including MDG reports and HDR reports Consolidated beneficiary system and information Data in place for rapid deployment of crisis support Countries achieve MDG + and Vision 2020

To report and prove progress, we need n n n Quantitative and qualitative data To understand the dimensions and manifestations of poverty and vulnerability Prove that policies contributed to positive social change Baselines for where we started and benchmarks for where we are going Data for trend analysis To Monitor and evaluate – success or failure

Each country needs. . Indicators and tools for assessing and monitoring n Information flow and communication n Coordination n Institutional leadership for monitoring n Advocacy and buy-in n

A Development Results system would be framed on: The Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF) POLICIES, INSTITUTIONS AND PROCESSES Empowerment Opportunity Accountability Jobs Democracy Services Participation Social Movements Markets Community Organisations VULNERABILITY CONTEXT Trends Shocks Seasonality POOR PEOPLE’S ASSET MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES Human, Financial, Social, Natural and Physical assets LIVELIHOOD OUTCOMES Income Well-being Health Security Re-drawn from: Environmental Resource Management (2002), “Predicted Impact of Global Climate Change on Poverty and the Sustainable Achievement of the MDGs: Vol. 2”, DFID review, p. 10. Taken from Perch, L. , Murray R. , Tincani, L. , (2007). Climate Change and Human Development: A policy Review for the Caribbean. Presented at Caribbean Conference on Climate Change. Jamaica. June.

But. . . . how much do we assess progress?

Progress. . . but work remains n n n While indigence has declined significantly, poverty has increased in some countries. Inequality remains high Climate change and disaster risk not well integrated into broader development framework – HIV Statistics and reporting , while improved, still limited requires urgent attention (2008 CRIS Reports) multi-sectoral planning remains sporadic Vulnerability high amongst elderly, children, women

Progress with MDG 1 up to 2005 Poverty Indicators Country Year CPA conducted % below the poverty line % below the indigence line Poverty Gap FGT P 2 (Severity) Barbados* 1997 13. 9 - n. a Belize. R 1996 33. 0 13. 4 8. 7 4. 3 Dominica**** 2002 39. 0 15 - - Grenada 1999 32. 1 12. 9 15. 3 9. 9 Guyana* 1999 35. 0 19. 0 12. 4 n. a Jamaica* 2001 16. 8 n. a Nevis. R 2000 32. 0 17. 0 2. 8 1. 0 St. Kitts. R 2000 30. 5 11. 0 2. 5 0. 9 St. Lucia. R 1996 25. 1 7. 1 8. 6 4. 4 St. Vincent & the Grenadines. R 1996 37. 5 25. 7 12. 6 6. 9 Trinidad and Tobago* 1992 21. 2 11. 2 n. a. Turks and Caicos Islands. R 1999 25. 9 3. 2 5. 7 2. 6 Source: Thomas & Wint (2002: p. 5. ); ® : CPAs conducted by CDB. **** World Bank, Dominica Social Protection Review (July 11, 2003) p. 3

Poverty and Inequality in the OECS

External factors n A “perfect n n storm” of events: Underlying Energy Crisis Escalating energy crisis with implications also with competing interest of food production and bio-fuels for land resources Rapid climate change and intense climate variability [evidenced by intense storm activity, repetitive storms (September 2008), persistent rain (October 2008)] Global financial crisis – resulting in home losses, tightening of credit, downturn in markets, lack of confidence Food crisis – global food security under threat by high commodity prices, drought & other issues

Likely impacts of the Economic Crisis n n Poverty and vulnerability are likely to deepen [For example, in Antigua and Barbuda, 13. 3 % of percent of persons living below the poverty line worked more than 40 hours, many of them in more than one job and in the informal sector. ] Under-employment and unemployment expected to worsen [anecdotal data suggests some households may have both parents now without employment] Intensified gender inequities at the household level with knock-on effects on children’s education, nutrition and maternal and child health Government expenditure on social assistance/protection could tighten up [countries in OECS reporting loss of revenue 10 -20%]

In the absence of consistent approaches, how can you: n n n n Really know who is poor and the scope of their poverty? Who needs what type of help and when? What investments are needed to mitigate the economic crisis? What types of programmes really work and are worth the investment? When programmes need to be changed and are no longer valid? What change has been achieved? Prove to development partners, the return on their investments?

Support to Poverty Assessment and Reduction in the Caribbean (SPARC) : n Overarching Goal: To assist governments to design and implement a planning framework that speaks to the specific needs of the vulnerable and the disadvantaged in reducing poverty and enhancing social development. … is designed to facilitate multidonor programming to deliver a comprehensive package of assistance to Caribbean countries to strengthen national and regional capacities to systematically collect, analyze and disseminate social data for poverty assessment as well as critically inform social policy formulation. Access to good and available data Enhanced Poverty Reduction Strategies Improved Analytical Capacity Methodological approach to poverty assessment

How does SPARC do its work? n n n Technical Assistance Donor coordination through the Programme Steering Cttee and the Poverty and Social Sector Development Donor Group (PSSDDG) Builds on and links into the work of UN system Advocacy – around Sustainable Human Development, Poverty Reduction, M&E, Social Vulnerability Resource Mobilization – both human and financial [e. g. identification of MDG Champions for Barbados and the OECS]; collaboration with the World Bank on Data Anonymization Research and Response – Expanding the knowledge base and understanding particularly between issues e. g. mainstreaming, crisis response and PSIA – testing new tools.

SPARC enhanced coordination on Poverty and MDG monitoring n An outcome from the Poverty and Social Sector Development Donor Group (PSSDDG) of the Eastern Caribbean Development Group, SPARC is a partnership of : UNDP, CDB, World Bank, IDB, CIDA, OECS/SPU, UN/ECLAC, Df. ID, UNIFEM, EU/EC, UNESCO, UNICEF, ILO

SPARC promotes social dimensions of vulnerability Source: ECLAC (2005 Presentation on Social Vulnerability and the PRSPs

SPARC –systematic approach to Monitoring for Development n CWIQ, AD (Annual) CPA/SLC/PPA linked with HBS LSMS (every 4 -5 years) Tools for measuring the depth and determinants of poverty (Understanding) n n Tools for comparing differences over space (Targeting) n n Census (every 10 years) Local Administrative Data n Local admin. records Pop. Census + Hhold survey = Poverty maps Tools for monitoring changes over time (Tracking) n Information Pyramid HBS, LSMS etc. , Participative Poverty Monitoring (listening to the poor) n service delivery monitoring Administrative data/MIS; Institution-based surveys; household surveys, CWIQ

Through SPARC framework: n n Biennial sub-regional HDRs for the OECS will be supported linked to CPAs and CWIQs PSIA is rolled out as a tool for assessing policy reform impacts and monitoring results on poverty and social development [admin data critical] Localizing of the MDGs is promoted– Reports available for Saint Lucia, Dominica, St. Kitts and Nevis, BVI, Barbados. Anguilla and Antigua and Barbuda pending Capacity development enabled on survey design, sampling methodology, analysis and interpretation, MDG strategic thinking, Data Anonymization [later through WB/Paris 21 ADP]

SPARC – Systemization of Social Data Collection towards 2015

Building Sustained Capacity n n n Poverty and MDG Toolkit for the Caribbean Support to MSc in Development Statistics Advocacy for linking poverty assessments to HIV/AIDS and improved gender analysis South-South Cooperation – linking capacity from MS to MS – National Assessment Teams, poverty mapping Data dissemination through Dev. Info More recently – with ILO through support to labour market information

Looking forward – we need resources for and action on: n Real and sustained focus on social change and transformation through: n n n Social Risk Management Knowledge management Addressing Inequality and Poverty Reduction Expanding Social Protection Harmonization across data instruments, systems and policy frameworks

Social Risk Management n Moving beyond crisis response to a long-term approach to enhance equality and resilience requiring capacity for : n n n Coping [short-term and situational] Prevention [understanding and resolving causes of vulnerability and reducing risk Mitigation – building resilience, putting response plans in place and identifying alternative approaches

Poverty and Inequality Strengthening Analysis n n n Both the state of poverty as well as disadvantage and social discrimination Price information linked to wages – capacity to provide for basic needs? Data on persons with disabilities, infected and affected by HIV Labour market outcomes from investment in education Gender analysis

Social Protection and Inclusion Clear institutional frameworks for social protection n Effective coordination & informationsharing between government agencies n Commitment over the long-term by successive governments and leadership n Transparent beneficiary information systems n

Harmonization of. . . n n Methodologies for MDG reporting Concepts and policies Data collection instruments – Country Poverty Assessment (CPA), Core Welfare Indicator Questionnaire (CWIQ), Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), Labour Force Surveys (LFS) & the identification of core questions to be monitored across all Household surveys Management Information Systems vs sectoral M&E frameworks

Coordination n n Strengthen links between SPARC and CARTAC to enhance socio-economic planning frameworks and risk management approaches Joint support by donor partners to strengthening social protection systems Strengthen work on climate change and DRR by focusing on resilience building at the social level Support capacity development in the soft skills – communication, leadership, partnerships including publi/private sector partnership Capacity building of NGOs to participate in development monitoring

THANK YOU!!!