Evangelicals, Born Agains, and Fundamentalist Christians in Election 2004 May 26, 2004 Source: www. greenbergresearch. com www. zogby. com
Two Polls n Greenberg Research n n n Survey of all evangelicals in America Conducted April 5 th, 2004 Zogby International n n Survey of evangelicals in 16 battleground states Conducted between May 18 th and May 23 rd, 2004
Greenberg Research – Evangelical Demographics n n n Evenly spread throughout the country 31% live in the Deep South 19% live in the Central Northeast 14% live on the Pacific coast Evangelicals disproportionately live in rural areas (25%) or small towns (31%)
Greenberg Research – Demographics (cont. ) n n n 55% of Evangelicals believe it is very important we show support for Israel in contrast with only 40% of Americans in general. 82% of Evangelicals are registered voters and 65% of those reported that they voted in both 2000 and 2002. 15% of Evangelicals are Afro-American, 75% of whom are staunch Kerry supporters.
Greenberg Research – White Evangelicals n n White evangelicals are mainly conservative and support Bush’s reelection bid. Among those who vote, 74% support Bush as opposed to 23% that support Kerry. n n n More politically engaged than general population. More likely to participate politically due to religiosity. While 1 in 5 white evangelical voters are Democrat, they are less likely to vote than their Republican counterparts.
Greenberg Research – Evangelical Foreign Policy n n Moved more by conservative ideology rather than faith-based altruism. Priorities include homeland security, war on terror, and safety from foreign aggression. Evangelicals are much more pro-Israeli (55% versus 40%) than Americans in general. However, there is little difference from the general population with regard to Palestinian rights.
CNI / Zogby Poll Results Evangelical Views on the Mideast n n 49% of Born Agains support making Israel accountable for her actions. 33% do not support making Israel accountable. (April 5, 2004) 40% of Born Agains agree that the state of Palestine should now be recognized. 30% disagree with the remainder unsure. (July 2003)
Zogby International n Poll of likely voters in the 16 “battleground states” n n n Arkansas (6) Florida (27) Iowa (7) Michigan (17) Minnesota (10) Missouri (11) n n n n n Nevada (5) New Hampshire (4) New Mexico (5) Ohio (20) Oregon (7) Pennsylvania (21) Tennessee (11) Washington (11) West Virginia (5) Wisconsin (10)
Zogby International – Florida n n Bush won by 537 votes in 2000 29% Kerry 63% Bush 30% of likely voters are “evangelical”
Zogby International – Pennsylvania n n Gore won by 204, 000 (4. 2%) votes in 2000 20% Kerry 79% Bush 17% of likely voters are “evangelical”
Zogby International – Ohio n n Bush won 165, 000 (3. 5%) votes in 2000 16% Kerry 80% Bush 20% of likely voters are “evangelical”.
Zogby International – Michigan n n Gore won by 217, 000 (5. 1%) votes in 2000 23% Kerry 70% Bush 20% of likely voters are “evangelical”.
Zogby International – All 16 Battleground States
Questions Will the election depend on how many born again, fundamentalist, or evangelical voters turn out? n Does Bush’s re-election hinge on raising the number of such voters from 65% participation to 70% or more? n
Conclusion “Bad politicians are elected by good people who don’t vote. ” – Billy Graham, Evangelist n Karl Rove fears Evangelicals not voting in 2004 n
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