European universities in a changing world Prof Dr

European universities in a changing world Prof. Dr. Dirk Van Damme Centre for Educational Research and Innovation OECD/EDU – CERI

Overview • The context for expansion and innovation – Economical (and the impact of the crisis) – Demographic – Social • Trends and challenges – Access, equity and success – Quality, ranking and diversification – Internationalisation and globalisation • Change and innovation 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 2

The economic context • The knowledge economy will need more highskilled people with better and newer skills – There are more jobs expected asking for highlevel skills than there are higher education graduates, so there still is a need for expansion of participation and attainment – If countries want to overcome the economic crisis and to remain competitive in the future, they will have to invest in human (and social) capital 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 3

12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 4

The economic context • The current economic crisis will result in long-lasting high unemployment rates, especially among young people – Rather favourable labour market conditions at onset of the crisis – OECD UNR rose to 7. 3% in February 2009: 9 m more unemployed than 1 year earlier – Unemployment expected to rise to 10. 1% in late 2010: nearly 30 million more jobless persons than in 2007 – Significant deterioration of youth unemployment rate 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 5

Growth will collapse in 2009 and stagnate in 2010 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 6

Deteriorating youth unemployment rate 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 7

The economic context • But: – Unemployment may provide strong incentives to upgrading skills – Opportunity costs are decreasing – But social policies in higher education and wellperforming student support systems will be necessary to accommodate this 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 8

The economic context • The 21 st century economy will need not only more skills but also new skills – ‘ 21 st century skills’, ‘Skills for innovation’, ‘soft skills’ – Such as: creativity, entrepreneurship, critical thinking, curiosity, team-work, leadership, problem-solving – Whether they are really ‘new’ can be questioned, but they certainly should have a stronger place in the curriculum 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 9

The economic context • Success of high-skills economies not only depends on production of skilled people, but also on skills utilisation – Low use of high skills (“over-schooling” or “under -utilisation”? ) in some countries – Skills mismatches – Can higher education also help societies to become more innovative and oriented towards better utilisation of high skills? 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 10

Source: Lisbon Council, 2006 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 11

The demographic context • In OECD countries (situation completely different in other parts of the world) – Falling birth rates and higher life expectancy result in ‘greying’ populations – Higher ‘old age dependency ratio’ • Will force us – To utilize talents and competences in older populations and to keep them productive – To prepare young people for life long learning 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 12

The demographic context 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 13

The demographic context 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 14

The demographic context • Also, more people on the move result in more diverse populations 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 15

The social context • Persisting inequality of opportunity in higher ed, but continuing expansion improves equity • Higher education will probably remain engine of meritocracy and social mobility for disadvantaged groups – Students from ethnic minorities and migrants – ‘Reservoirs’ of talents in underrepresented sectors of population 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 16

Source: Education at a Glance 2008 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 17

Source: CERI/OECD, 2008 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 18

The social context • Changing value systems will further increase (and modify) the demand for higher learning, but also the way learners will want to learn – More secular and more oriented to self-expression – Providing more opportunities for self-directed learning 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 19

The social context 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 20

Access, equity and success • Higher education systems will continue to grow and expand – Higher education has been successful in responding to massification and contributed to enormous growth of higher education attainment – Current growth rates can and will probably continue in most countries – In some countries a very impressive growth is realised 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 21

Scenario 1 = Status-quo Scenario 2 = Trend Source: CERI/OECD, 2008 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 22

Access, equity and success • But we need active access policies, in order – To increase participation of underrepresented groups, not only because of the economic benefit of tapping their talents, but also because of social cohesion – To diversify participation, also to older learners in the perspective of lifelong learning 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 23

Access, equity and success • But access and participation is not enough – Efficiency of teaching and learning arrangements can and should be improved – Success rates of disadvantaged students should be increased by active policies of support and assistance – A ‘pedagogy of success’ instead of a ‘pedagogy of failure’ • Selection may have been appropriate in educational systems aimed at producing relatively small elites, but is much less so in societies that need to develop all talents 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 24

Quality, excellence and ranking • Quality of higher education has improved a lot, supported by internal and external quality assurance arrangements – In the context of the Bologna process QA serves to uphold the recognition of degrees – Issue of supportability • But over the recent years the focus has shifted – To a strong preoccupation with the holy grail of ‘excellence’, the ‘reputation race’, a focus on rankings and a desire to belong to the top-100 of global rankings 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 25

Quality, excellence and ranking • A debate is needed on diversification of institutions and their missions – No proliferation of top-research – Accessible, high-level education is needed for high numbers of students – Differentiation of academic and vocational missions – Cf. European ‘mapping’ and ‘diversification’ projects, supported in Leuven Communiqué 2009 – Cf. diversified, multidimensional rankings 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 26

Internationalisation • Expansion of international students • Some European countries are increasing their share, but many others lag behind • Attractiveness of continental European HE has not improved drastically – English-speaking countries remain favourite study destinations • Crucial importance of language 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 27

Source: Education at a Glance, 2008 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 28

Globalisation • Worldwide convergence and integration – Integrated global system of scientific research – Increasing mobility of students, researchers, teaching staff and institutional leaders • Emerging market of academics and researchers – Technology-driven expansion of new delivery modes in teaching and learning – International labour market of graduates • Globalising organisation of professions • Migration of high-skilled labour is to increase 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 29

Change and innovation • In order to address these challenges ‘more of the same’ will not suffice; change and innovation are needed • “The longevity of the university is not a result of never changing – but rather a credit to its ability to evolve, adapt, and change over time” (Clark Kerr) 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 30

Change and innovation • In struggling to cope with massification higher education institutions have adapted to a mode of operation characterized by standardisation – Thus far also the Bologna Process has been focused on convergence, even harmonisation; the next phase 2010 -2020 will focus much more at diversification 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 31

Change and innovation • But now we need more diversification to successfully meet the demands of a differentiated reality – Diversification of the institutional landscape – Diversification of teaching & learning arrangements for a more heterogeneous student population 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 32

Change and innovation • Critical issue 1 – Those countries / institutions will be successful which will be able to diversify provision and offer higher added value • Expansion: more learners • Efficiency: more successful learning • Equity and Diversity: diverse and equitable answers to diversified demands – Increasingly competing market – Technological innovation is part of the answer 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 33

Change and innovation • Critical issue 2: – Will HEI’s be able to sustain their role and position as dominant producers of knowledge, skills and qualifications? – Higher education institutions exist because they provide the institutional arrangements for effective and powerful learning environments – But increasing number of competitors • More effective alternative providers? • Direct skills assessment 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 34

Concluding • Once again universities will have to show their capacity for change in an increasingly demanding and competitive environment – Institutional will and capacity for change will be crucial • Universities cannot face this on their own, but have to engage in various kinds of networking 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 35

www. oecd. org/edu/ceri THANK YOU ! 12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 36