European Cooperation in Science and Technology www cost

European Cooperation in Science and Technology www. cost. eu Developing Space Weather Products and Services in Europe ES 0803 Start date: 16/11/2008 End date: 15/11/2012 Year: 2 Anna Belehaki Chair National Observatory of Athens, Greece COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Sun-Earth System: Energy Coupling Solar-Terrestrial Relations European Cooperation in Science and Technology www. cost. eu SUN EARTH convection zone radiative zone core particles and magnetic fields photons bow shock surface sunspot atmosphere plage coronal mass ejection not to scale COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme solar wind surface atmosphere plasmasphere heliosphere magnetosphere ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Physical processes that act on Space Weather European Cooperation in Science and Technology www. cost. eu COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme (Lathuillère et al. , 2002) ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Space weather effects on systems and humans European Cooperation in Science and Technology www. cost. eu COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract From Natural Resources Canada

Scientific context and objectives (1/3) • Background / Problem statement: Space Weather can affect ground and space technological systems as well as humans in space. Extreme conditions have economical consequences and may threaten safety and security of the technological infrastructures. In the US, important progress in developing Space Weather prediction systems has been made. Although Europe has much scientific expertise on the physics and effects of Space Weather, its optimal use suffers from a lack of coordination between the national research programmes. COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 5 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Scientific context and objectives (2/3) • Brief reminder of Mo. U objectives: This COST Action has the primary goal to form an interdisciplinary network between European scientists dealing with different issues of geospace, as well as warning system developers and operators, to: § foster the ties between European geospace research and space technology establishments, § assess the European potential in advanced Space Weather observational and modeling techniques and in reliable products and services, § define the needs of a broad range of users and § determine and recommend the specifications for new products and services that best meet the users requirements. COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 6 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Scientific context and objectives (3/3) Research directions: § Detailed review of existing scientific knowledge and SW services § Recommendations on the improvement of existing prototype services (European § § Space Weather Portal - ESWP, SWENET, DIAS, SPENVIS, etc. ) Evaluation and validation of models and the standardization of SW products Networking of important stake holders (ISES RWCs, ESA, SWENET, SWWT, and European industry) for the ongoing analysis of user needs, the specification of new products and services and the dissemination of relevant information. Systematic contacts with users (European Space Weather Week - ESWW) Demonstration of models and prototype services through the ESWP, DIAS and SWENET portals COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 7 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Working groups Working group 1: Advanced methods to model and predict SW effects Leaders: Jurgen Watermann (FR), Consuelo Cid (ES) Working group 2: Space weather products and services Leaders: Ronald Van der Linden (BE), Mike Hapgood(UK) Working group 3: Exploitation, Dissemination, Education, Outreach Leaders: Mauro Messerotti (IT), Vida Zigman (SI) Chair: Anna Belehaki (GR) Co-Chair: Mauro Messerotti (IT) COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 8 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Results vs. Objectives Networking activities • COST Action ES 0803 achieved broad European networking with the participation of 26 COST countries, 6 non-COST institutes and more than 80 experts. • We organised our second workshop, oriented to the development of close links with users of space weather data and services. • We are the main organiser of “The International Advanced School on Space Weather Modelling and Applications”. • COST Action ES 0803 co-organised the 6 th European Space Weather Week, in collaboration with ESA, and we are preparing the 7 th European Space Weather Week. • We created the new scientific journal “Space Weather International”, co-funded by COST and EDP Sciences. COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 9 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

http: //ww. costes 0803. noa. gr New design based on a Content Management System COST ES 0803 main web serves as a portal to all the activities related to the Action: § Meetings § Working Group Activities § Main reports released by the SGs § Community news § Documents repository COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 10 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

http: //sidc. oma. be/esww 6/ The 6 th European Space Weather Week was jointly organized by COST ES 0803, ESA, and SIDCSTCE. It was attended by 247 participants, having the central aim to bring together diverse communities working on all elements of Space Weather with a strong focus on the users’ involvement. Our Action is also one of the main drivers of the next ESWW 7 that will be held in Brugge from 15 to 19 November 2010. COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 11 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

http: //ww. costes 0803. noa. gr/meetings COST ES 0803 Workshop: “Recent advances in Space Weather products and services” held in the Scientific Center of the Polish Academy of Sciences in Paris, 22 -23 March 2010. Aim of the workshop: § Review of recent advances in providing SW products and services by European systems and organizations § Presentation of users’ needs and assessment of their satisfaction from existing services COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 12 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

http: //agenda. ictp. it/smr. php 72171 “International Advanced School on Space Weather Modelling and Applications” jointly organized by ICTP, COST ES 0803 and SOTERIA, from 18 to 29 October 2010. More than 80 students have applied. 50 students will be financial supported to attend, 25 students from COST countries and 25 from third countries. Final programme will be available in July. COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 13 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Set up of the new International Journal on Space Weather Two years of negotiations with several publishers and with the COST Office: The new journal is now a reality: SPACE WEATHER INTERNATIONAL - SWI Publisher: EDP SCIENCES, France The journal for the first four years is co-funded by COST and EDPS. It is an open access journal, and authors will publish at no charge for the first two years. COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 14 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Space Weather International - SWI COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 15 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 16 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Space Weather International (SWI) is an international multi-disciplinary and interdisciplinary open access journal which publishes papers on all aspects of space weather and space climate including but not limited to § fundamental and applied scientific research including theory, observation, modeling and prediction § technical applications and engineering solutions § impact on humans and technology in space, in the air, at sea and on land § societal and economic implications § educational and dissemination concepts and experiences § development of user-targeted products and services § scientific, technical, political and commercial initiatives COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 17 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Space Weather International Editors-in-Chief: Jean Lilensten and Anna Belehaki Editorial Board: Mauro Messerotti (IT) Jurgen Watermann (FR) Ronal Van der Linden (BE) Consuelo Cid (ES) Mike Hapgood (UK) Susan Mc. Kenna (IE) Alexi Glover (ESA) Esa Turunen (EISCAT) The Editorial Board will be assisted by the Advisory Board The official announcement with call for papers is expected in October 2010. COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 18 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Results vs. Objectives Joint Research Activities Ø the assessment of the performance of existing Space Weather research and operational models Several presentations in the COST ES 0803 Workshops (Frascati 2009 and Paris 2010) and invited presentation by ESA in the SWWT Plenary meeting, June 2010. Ø the stimulation of models’ upgrades and of reliable computer codes Large number of papers published by our Action COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 19 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Model Validation/Verification and Testing Components Model validation/verification —the comprehensive, systematic quantitative comparison of model output with observations—is required for identifying and documenting model strengths and weaknesses. Validation establishes evidence that the model represents the real system (or proposed real system) (Carson, 2002) – measures how well a model does what it is designed to do, including how numerically accurate it is (Vassiliadis, 2004) – strong requirement for the implementation of a model for operational use. Verification determines if a model implementation accurately represents the developer’s conceptual description of the model and its solution (Thacker et al. , 2004) - include both the computerized model verification and the evaluation of the model’s operational validity – follows the operational implementation of the model. COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Recommendation for a V&V plan Ø Scientific evaluation - strong requirement for model improvements Ø Metrics based evaluation - operational use • Measure model usefulness for operations in comparison with some simple standard model. • Create simple measure of model capabilities (“one number”). • Allow objective comparison between models with comparable output. • Measure the improvement of model capabilities over time (usefulness of model upgrades). • Focus on parameters useful for operations. COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Example: Implementation in the assessment of SWIF and GCAM performance Both models are running on-line in DIAS http: //dias. space. noa. gr Implementation of the SWIF (Tsagouri Belehaki, 2008; Tsagouri et al. , 2009) Implementation of the GCAM (Muhtarov et al. , 2002) SWIF TSAR STIM Time Series Auto. Regressive Empirical Storm Time technique Ionospheric Model Ionospheric forecasts up to It formulates the 24 h ahead under all ionospheric storm time possible geophysical response in respect to IMF conditions (Koutroumbas et disturbances (Tsagouri and al. , 2008) Belehaki, 2008) fo. F 2 current and recent past values Reference fo. F 2 and IMF parameters / ACE Output: Ionospheric forecasts up to 24 h ahead, Alerts and warnings COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme GCAM An autoregressive technique A synthetic geomagnetic activity index and its statistical characteristics Input fo. F 2 current and historical values Ap index predictions / NOAA Output: Ionospheric forecasts up to 24 h ahead ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Metrics studies Selection of disturbed periods (geomagnetic storms) Comparison with actual observations (ionosonde fo. F 2 characteristic) Comparison against two simple prediction strategies: • median predictions (climatology) • persistence predictions (Per-1 h and Per 24 h) • Model score: MRD / Standard Deviation Daily RMSE • Skill score: Comparison with a baseline empirical model: IRI 2001 which includes STORM COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Mean Relative Deviation and Standard Deviation (storm conditions) COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Improvement over Persistence (Per-24) Middle to high latitudes Storm Days Middle to high latitudes Post-Storm Days 100 80 GCAM 90 % Improvent over Per-24 90 SWIF 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 SWIF 80 GCAM 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 3 6 12 Prediction step (hs ahead) 24 • This test provides evidence of models’ relative efficiency to beat ionospheric persistence and to capture the transitions from disturbed to quiet conditions. • Facilitates comparisons For this test it may be important to distinguish between storm and post storm conditions COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

% Improvement over climatology Improvement over Climatology (Storm days) 100 90 IRI 2001 80 64 70 60 47 38 40 GCAM 38 40 31 38 36 30 10 0 3 h 6 h 12 h 90 IRI 2001 80 70 GCAM 50 42 40 32 31 31 30 19 13 23 10 19 1 0 1 h COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme Comparable performance of SWIF with GCAM for predictions up to 12 hours ahead, while GCAM systematically performs more successfully for predictions 24 hours ahead. SWIF 57 54 60 20 24 h Middle-to-low latitudes 100 Considerably better performance of both models compared to IRI 2001 17 13 1 h % Improvement over climatology SWIF 59 50 20 Considerably better performance of both models compared to climatology at all latitudes Middle-to-high latitudes 3 h 6 h 12 h Investigate a model’s efficiency to capture disturbances. Facilitates comparisons 24 h ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Stimulating models’ upgrade • Improvement of existing flares prediction tools through the combination of an extended magnetic feature detection set with existing flares prediction tools (Colak and Qahwaji, 2009). • Development of a new method for the estimation of magnetic complexity in sunspot regions based on the Ising model (Al-Omari et al. , 2010). • Development of new algorithms for the automated processing and visualisation of SOHO and SDO data (Ahmed et al. , 2010). • Improved methodology for the calculation of the R 12 eff parameter used by the SIRMUP method for the generation of ionospheric nowcasting products and services (Tsagouri et al. , 2009 a). • Development of a new ionospheric forecasting algorithm suitable for operational applications, called the Solar Wind driven autoregression model for Ionospheric short-term Forecast (SWIF) (Tsagouri et al. , 2009 b). • Development of a model-assisted technique to reconstruct the topside electron density profile to heights above the transition height (Belehaki et al. , 2009; Kutiev et al. , 2009). • Improvements to techniques used for mitigating the effect of scintillations (Aquino et al. , 2009; da Silva et al. , 2010). COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Stimulating models’ upgrade • Study of pre-storm enhancements (a few hours to one day before the storm) of maximum electron density in the F 2 region (D. Buresova leader). • Extreme event analysis to determine likely maxima in field variations and field rate-of-change for 30 European observatories (A. Thomson leader). • Formulation of a new scintillation index (Materassi et al. , 2009). • Extension of the CRAC: CRII model of cosmic ray induced ionization towards the upper atmosphere, including upper stratosphere and mesosphere (Usoskin et al. , 2010). • Extension of an existing model of cosmic ray induced atmospheric ionization (I. Usoskin leader). • Total Electron Content (TEC) computation using ground-based GPS receivers, TEC modeling and analysis of Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TID) data with the objective to derive characteristric ionospheric perturbation parameters (N. Jakowski leader). • Further development of improved models for the interaction of cosmic rays and solar energetic particles with the lower ionosphere, stratosphere and troposphere (P. Velinov leader). • Influence of solar and geomagnetic activity on climate (Dobrica et al. , 2010) • 3 D reconstruction of Coronal Mass Ejections (M. Mierla leader) • Study of the solar coronal plasma density and jets (M. Mierla leader) • Impact of fast solar wind streams on the Earth’s environment (G. Maris leader) COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Example of the upgrade of the Topside Sounders Model – Digisonde Assisted (Ta. D) The profile measured on day 97 of year 1969, 17: 03 UT around equator (lat = 12˚S, long=12. 5˚E). Logarithm of ion density profiles obtained without optimization (denoted as “old”) and those with optimization (denoted by “new”), are color coded, along with the measured Ne profile presented with the black line. The “old” profiles are presented by dashed lines, while the “new” profiles are given by solid lines. The total ion density presented the sum of the “new” profiles is given by the orange line. COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 29 Comparison with a Malvern ISR profile obtained on day 199 of year 1968, 14 hours local time (black crosses), corresponding model (blue line) and its O+ density (dashed red line) profiles. The scale height HTM is 118. 9 km and h. TM is 675. 9 km. RMS (model) error is 0. 136, which relative to logarithm of 12 yields 13% relative error. ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

The upgrade of the Topside Sounders Model – Digisonde Assisted (Ta. D) The presence of Helium ions can be accounted in TSMP by adding a new term similar to the second term describing H+ distribution. COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 30 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

On line implementation of the Topside Sounders Model – Digisonde Assisted (Ta. D) Test site: Using real-time data from Athens Digisonde http: //195. 251. 203. 191/Electron. Density/EDProfile. php COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 31 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Progress achieved in respect to Mo. U COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 32 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Coordination, management and internal functioning • • • Frequent updates of the Eo. Cs • Organization of several Core Group Meetings (December 2009, January 2010, May 2010): to prepare the set up of the new Journal, to organise the ESWW 7, the ICTP training school, the ESWP agreement with BIRA. . . • Three e-votes have been organised for a) the SWI journal set up b) the nomination of new SG leaders (SG 1. 3 and SG 3. 2) c) the Action’s budget • Encouragement of younger scientists: The involvement of young scientists is always a priority in WG/SG leaders nomination, committees, STSMs. Young scientists have been specifically encouraged to actively participate in the ESWW and in the planned training school in 2010. Replacement of two SG leaders who couldn't commit more Re-design of the Action’s web site sing a Content Management System to facilitate frequent updates and remote design of workgroup pages. COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 33 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Action Parties Grant Holder: Royal Observatory of Belgium Ronald Van der Linden Belgium COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 34 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Action participants COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 35 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Geographical impact COST Countries : 25 Chair : GR AT, BE, BG, CY, CZ, DK, FI, FR, DE, GR, HU, IE, IS, IT, NO, PL, RO, RS, SK, SI, ES, SE, CH, UK Non-COST institutions: • Alikhanyan Physics Institute, Armenia • ISTP, Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Division, Russia • Space Research Institute, IKIRAS, Russia • Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Izmiran, Russia • Institute of Ionosphere, National Academy of Science, Ukraine (under approval) • Institute of Geodesy, National University “Lviv Polytechnic” , Ukraine (under approval) COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 36 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Use of COST instruments YR 1 Nov. 08 – Apr. 09 No. of MC / WG meetings / Steering Group meetings No. of STSMs YR 2 May. 09 – Apr. 10 2 MCM 1 WG 3 M 1 SGM 1 MCM 3 e-vote MC decisions 1 WG 3 M 4 SGM - 5 (+ 1 planned) No. of workshops 1 Workshop - WG 1 (Frascati) / conferences YR 3 YR 4 1 Workshop – WG 2 (Paris) ESWW 7 (Brugge) ESWW 6 (Brugge) No. of joint publications 1 91 No. of training schools - 1 (approved by ICTP for October 2010) Website development Website upgrade / update GASG (activities) COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 37 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Strengths and weaknesses Main successes • Broad European Networking • Close and systematic collaboration with ESA, SWWT, all European Regional Warning Centers • Involvement of several private companies willing to contribute to the transition from space weather models to services and to participate on our assessment studies • Good training and outreach plan (Training school in ICTP planned for 2010) • Creation of the new scientific journal “Space Weather International” • Organisation of the ESWWs • Agreement with BIRA/Belgium for collaborative actions aimed on the upgrade of the European Space Weather Portal Key difficulties • Involvement of additional users – Fair and business meetings in the ESWW 7 aim to attract the interest of additional users COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 38 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Challenges (1/2) Problems 1. Lack of national support to the COST Actions in several counties (including Greece, Italy, etc…): Chair and vice-Chair have no support. 2. Transition to the CGS was not easy; lots of restrictions and penalties for the GH. But, COST office is always very helpful and responsive to our requests. COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 39 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Challenges (2/2) Critical phases to be implemented next year 1. Recommendation for Space Weather models validation criteria 2. Stimulation of models’ upgrades and of reliable computer codes Development of an online catalogue service for space weather resources http: //www. spaceweatherservices. com/spw_catalogue/ (Heynderickx, 2010). This prototype online catalogue database and web interface is currently undergoing evaluation and testing. Joint activities with BIRA for the upgrade of the European Space Weather Portal with models, catalogues and outreach material. An Mo. U has been established to describe the framework of this collaboration. 3. Intensification of the outreach activities 4. Organization of the 8 th ESWW 5. Organization and promotion of the SWI COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 40 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract

Acknowledgements Many thanks to: COST officers: Carine Petit, Kent Hung GH: Ronald Van der Linden WG and SG leaders Co Editor-in-Chief of the SWI: Jean Lilensten DC Rapporteur: Zoltan Dunkel COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme 41 ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract