Europe 100 renewable in 2050 A logical explanation

Europe 100% renewable in 2050 A logical explanation for a realistic vision Kristian Petrick Managing Director Factor CO 2 Ennova Barcelona, September 2010 www. factor. CO 2. com

Introduction With a fascinating vision, mankind is able to accomplish amazing projects „I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the Earth. " John F. Kennedy – May 25, 1961 2

Agenda What is required to be convinced of a vision? – An open mind to follow logical arguments Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“ 1. Is it realistic? a) Concept of „Energy Autonomy“ b) Examples 2. Can we afford it? 3. Can we do it? a) Cost curves a) Urgency b) Business vs. public economics b) Stakeholder Analysis c) Recommendations c) Energy Outlook 3

1. a Concept of Energy Autonomy Animated slide Think in “energy self-sufficient units” – and demand, efficiency and renewables go hand-in-hand Devices: Solar powered phones, laptops, . . . Europe Regions / Countries Appliances: Washing machines, motors, . . . Photovoltaic, solar thermal, heat pumps, . . Homes and buildings Apartment buildings, vehicles, . . . Small hydro, biomass plants, solar parks, . . . Villages and municipalities Cities, Industries Wind parks, solar plants, geothermal, wave power, … 4

1. b Examples: Devices Integrate the power supply in a practical and innovative way – making devices independent from the grid Existing… Probably soon… Solar-mobile phones Solar-calculators Solar-MP 3 Player Solar-Notebooks Designed by Albert Bellot 5

1. b Examples: Appliances and buildings Accept higher efficiency standards, generate your own energy – and show your pride with convincing words Today … Future … New appliances only with highest standards allowed Gas / Oil „Power Plus House“ Avoid misleading / unattractive terms like „Passive House“ or „Zero Energy House“ South 6

Vehicles Make efficient products attractive – not necessarily cheap! – with target-group specific marketing Until now … From now on … 3 -liter Lupo 3 -liter Porsche E-Car Think E-Mini 7

1. b Examples: Industry Consider renewable energy for your company – you find it already for competitive prices in Europe Today … Maybe soon … Aluminium plant with hydro power, Norway Aluminium plant with biomass power, Netherlands Aluminium plant with solar power, Spain Aluminium plant with wind and ocean power, UK 8

Municipalities and regions Imagine yourself, your neighbours and your region using energy from nearby Europe today … Europe in 2050 … Renewable generation Self-sufficient municipality Fossil/nuclear power plant Coal Uranium Oil Gas 9

1. c Energy Outlook Invest consistently in renewables and use energy intelligently – and the vision will come true automatically Energy Use • Energy Conservation / Savings • Energy Efficiency • Intelligent („passive“) use of energy 100% „Active“ use of energy Fossil and nuclear energies Renewable energies Today Small or easy applications/installations 2050 Complex industries/cities 10

Agenda So it may be realistic, but what is with the costs? Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“ 1. Is it realistic? a) Concept of „Energy Autonomy“ b) Examples 2. Can we afford it? 3. Can we do it? a) Cost curves a) Urgency b) Business vs. public economics b) Stakeholder Analysis c) Recommendations c) Energy Outlook 11

2. a Cost curves Accept that the times of cheap energy are over – and realize that only renewables can become cheaper Energy costs Affordable for. . . Renewable energies • Economies of scale • Technical improvements Fossil/nuclear energies • Depletion • Internalization of emissions • Security of supply developed countries Countries in transition developing countries Today (depending on technology and location) Time 12

2. b Business- vs. socio-economic costs Challenge the ones who say we cannot afford 100% renewables – let them define which costs they mean Socio economics Fossil economy Renewable economy State taxes subsidies / support schemes State € € taxes subsidies / support schemes Damage s Business economics € € € k. Wh € € Equipment & financing Fossil Fuels & security of supply 13

Agenda If it is realistic and affordable, what do we have to do? Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“ 1. Is it realistic? a) Concept of „Energy Autonomy“ b) Examples 2. Can we afford it? 3. Can we do it? a) Cost curves a) Urgency b) Business vs. public economics b) Stakeholder Analysis c) Recommendations c) Energy Outlook 15

3. a Urgency xx. Be aware that we have to get on the right track now – and not waste time and money anymore Use of energy Savings, eficiency and intelligent use Fossil & nuclear 2009 < 80 months Renewables 2015 2050 Time left according to IPCC to curb emissions world-wide We need a convincing vision to • implement renewables faster • avoid investments in old technologies • avoid unnecessary emissions • get innovative ideas of more people • create optimism 16

3. b Stakeholder Analysis Convince decision makers – and the population will increasingly benefit from renewable technologies Interests Stakeholders Fossil / nuclear Neutral Renewables Deciders / Multipliers: • Politicians • Managers / Entrepreneurs • Private „Budget Holders“ Target Group „Normal“ Population: • Private citizens • Employees / Workforce • Administration European Population 17

Serious humor Realize that the fossil age is over, the renewable age has begun – even if some may not like it “Save the hand axe industry!” “The metal work ers destroy our workplaces” nd Axe: nion Stone a “U ubsidies” aintain the s M Greser & Lenz, Kunstmann Verlag “Save u s” 18

3. c Recommendations Act consistently in private, business and public matters – and just start today Private Budget Holders Managers & Entrepreneurs Politicians & „normal“ citizens & employees / workforce & administration staff 1. Inform yourself & your family about energy and climate change 2. Buy smart (= considering energy) 3. Switch / turn off what you don‘t use 1. Invest smart (= considering energy) 1. Implement consistent policies quickly 2. Improve & support renewable technologies 2. Provide infrastructure and support 3. Have guts to change unsustainable business models or jobs 3. Prohibit inefficient / polluting technologies and activities 19

A European Vision Get inspired by a fascinating vision – for yourself, our children, nature and mankind „We believe that this continent should commit itself to achieving the goal, before half of the century is out, of using solely renewable energies and living in a sustainable way on Earth. " The European Parliament, the European Commission, the Head of States of the European Union, the Party Leaders of the Member States – December 2010 20

Conclusion “Europe 100% renewable in 2050” is a realistic vision – just spread the word! Thank you for your attention! Contact: Kristian Petrick Factor CO 2 Ennova +34 93 272 38 48 kpetrick@factor. CO 2. com 21