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EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM Razeen Sally European Centre for International Political Economy/ EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM Razeen Sally European Centre for International Political Economy/ London School of Economics www. ecipe. org

EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • How EU trade policy works -- Highly EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • How EU trade policy works -- Highly centralised: at heart of EU economic and foreign policy -- Customs union; old issues; new issues -- Commission; Council of Ministers; member-states; Article 133 Committee

EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • EU in global trade and investment • EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • EU in global trade and investment • EU and WTO • EU and FTAs • EU internal market and external trade • The new members in EU trade policy

EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • EU in global trade and investment -- EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • EU in global trade and investment -- Market size; shares of trade and FDI -- EU trade and FDI relations with key partners -- Comparative trade barriers -- Pockets of EU protection: agriculture; industrial goods; services; trade remedies; standards

Table 11: Economic and Trade Indicators 2005: Main Countries/ economy GDP (US $ Growt Table 11: Economic and Trade Indicators 2005: Main Countries/ economy GDP (US $ Growt bn) h (%) Populatio n (mn) Per Capita GDP (US$) PPP Merchandi Service Total Service Trade/ FDI/ GDP se Exports Merch Trade GDP Inflow GDP (US$ bn) (US$ Trade (US$ bn) (%) (US$ (%) bn) (US$ bn) World 44384, 8 3, 6 6400, 0 6835, 1 61027, 5 10431, 0 2415, 0 21214, 0 4760, 0 47, 8 916, 3 2, 1 EU** 12815, 6 ***1. 8 459, 3 27902, 5 12097, 3 1333, 7 494, 1 2806, 4 919, 0 21, 9 421, 9 3, 3 US 12445, 1 3, 2 296, 5 41973, 4 12409, 5 906, 0 354, 0 2641, 0 635, 2 21, 2 99, 4 0, 8 2228, 9 9, 9 1304, 5 1708, 6 8572, 7 761, 9 73, 9 1422, 0 157, 1 63, 8 72, 4 3, 2 Indonesia 287, 2 5, 6 220, 6 1302, 2 847, 4 86, 2 5, 1 155, 7 22, 3 54, 2 5, 3 1, 8 Malaysia 130, 1 5, 3 25, 3 5134, 4 274, 8 140, 9 19, 0 255, 6 40, 5 196, 5 4, 0 3, 1 Philippines 98, 3 5, 1 83, 1 1182, 9 408, 6 41, 3 4, 5 88, 7 10, 3 99, 2 1, 1 1, 2 Singapore 116, 8 6, 4 4, 4 26836, 1 130, 2 229, 6 45, 1 429, 7 89, 1 367, 9 20, 1 17, 2 Thailand 176, 6 4, 5 64, 2 2749, 4 549, 3 110, 1 20, 5 228, 3 48, 0 129, 3 3, 7 2, 1 Vietnam 52, 4 83, 0 631, 3 254, 0 31, 6 3, 9 68, 1 8, 6 130, 0 2, 0 3, 8 ASEAN-6 861, 4 5, 9 480, 6 1792, 3 2464, 3 639, 7 98, 1 1226, 1 218, 8 142, 3 36, 2 4, 2 India 785, 5 8, 5 1094, 6 717, 6 3815, 5 95, 1 56, 1 229, 9 108, 3 29, 3 6, 6 0, 8 Japan 4505, 9 2, 7 128, 0 35214, 5 3943, 7 595, 0 107, 9 1109, 8 240, 5 24, 6 2, 8 >0. 1 Korea 787, 6 4, 0 48, 3 16309, 0 1056, 1 284, 4 43, 9 545, 7 101, 7 69, 3 7, 2 0, 9 Taipei 346, 4 4, 1 22, 7 15291, 8 - 197, 8 25, 6 380, 3 57, 1 109, 8 1. 6* 0, 5 Hong. Kong 177, 7 7, 3 6, 9 25593, 6 214, 5 292, 1 62, 2 592, 3 94, 6 333, 3 35, 9 20, 2 34954, 1 - 34954, 1 34954, 1 - China TOTAL Source: World Bank, WTO Statistical Database, UNCTAD WIR 2006 and ADB * Whole of Taiwan ** Numbers for GDP and PPP GDP only given for 2004 at WTO *** Data from Eurostat as World Bank does not show data for EU 25. For comparison: Eurostat gives 3. 1 GDP Growth Rate in US for 2005 (http: //epp. eurostat. ec. europa. eu /portal/page? _pageid=1996, 39140985&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&screen=detailref&language=en&product=STRIND_ECOBAC&root=STRIND_ECOBAC/ ecobac/eb 012)

Figure 9: Share of Exports of World Trade in Goods & Services (excl. Intra-EU(25) Figure 9: Share of Exports of World Trade in Goods & Services (excl. Intra-EU(25) trade, 2005

Figure 10: Share of Imports of World Trade in Goods & Services (excl. Intra-EU(25) Figure 10: Share of Imports of World Trade in Goods & Services (excl. Intra-EU(25) trade, 2005

Figure 5: Share of Exports of World Merchandise Trade (excl. Intra-EU(25) trade, 2005 Figure 5: Share of Exports of World Merchandise Trade (excl. Intra-EU(25) trade, 2005

Figure 6: Share of Imports of World Merchandise Trade (excl. Intra-EU(25) trade, 2005 Figure 6: Share of Imports of World Merchandise Trade (excl. Intra-EU(25) trade, 2005

Figure 7: Share of Exports of World Services Trade (excl. Intra-EU(25) trade, 2005 Figure 7: Share of Exports of World Services Trade (excl. Intra-EU(25) trade, 2005

Figure 8: Share of Imports of World Services Trade (excl. Intra-EU(25) trade, 2005 Figure 8: Share of Imports of World Services Trade (excl. Intra-EU(25) trade, 2005

Figure 1: OFDI Stock Accumulated 1980 -2005 (percentage of Global OFDI Stock) Figure 1: OFDI Stock Accumulated 1980 -2005 (percentage of Global OFDI Stock)

Figure 2: IFDI Stock Accumulated 1980 -2005 (percentage of Global IFDI Stock) Figure 2: IFDI Stock Accumulated 1980 -2005 (percentage of Global IFDI Stock)

Figure 3: OFDI Flows Accumulated 2003 -2005 (percentage of Global OFDI Flows) Figure 3: OFDI Flows Accumulated 2003 -2005 (percentage of Global OFDI Flows)

Figure 4: IFDI Flows Accumulated 2003 -2005 (percentage of Global IFDI Flows) Figure 4: IFDI Flows Accumulated 2003 -2005 (percentage of Global IFDI Flows)

Table 7: EU 25 Bilateral Export and Imports Goods Trade with Other Main Partners Table 7: EU 25 Bilateral Export and Imports Goods Trade with Other Main Partners in the World (2005) In million Euros and Shares 2005 Counry/ economy Imports Share of total EU imports Exports Share of total EU imports Total = Imports & Exports 162. 545 13, 75 251. 699 23, 69 414. 244 Japan 73. 417 6, 21 43. 631 4, 11 117. 048 China 158. 481 13, 40 51. 646 4, 86 210. 127 Korea, Republic of 33. 879 2, 87 20. 156 1, 90 54. 035 India 18. 915 1, 60 21. 092 1, 98 40. 007 ASEAN 71. 137 6, 02 45. 012 4, 24 116. 149 US Source: DG Trade Statistics, European Commission (http: //ec. europa. eu/trade/issues/bilateral/dataxls. htm) / Eurostat

Table 8: EU 25 Bilateral Import and Exports Services Trade with Other Main Partners Table 8: EU 25 Bilateral Import and Exports Services Trade with Other Main Partners in the World (2005) In billion Euros 2005 Counry/ economy Imports Exports Total = Imports & Exports 114. 060 119. 830 233. 890 Japan 11. 790 19. 907 31. 697 China 8. 778 10. 952 19. 729 Korea, Republic of 3. 402 5. 698 9. 100 India 4. 643 5. 085 9. 728 13. 475 14. 687 28. 162 US ASEAN Source: DG Trade Statistics, European Commission (http: //ec. europa. eu/trade/issues/bilateral/dataxls. htm) / Eurostat

Table 9: EU 25 Bilateral Total Trade for Goods and Services with Other Main Table 9: EU 25 Bilateral Total Trade for Goods and Services with Other Main Partners in the World (2003 -2005) In billion Euros 2003 Counry/ economy 2004 2005 Total = Imports & Exports US 593. 305 616. 074 648. 134 Japan 139. 746 146. 749 148. 745 China 158. 195 191. 722 229. 857 Korea, Republic of 48. 860 56. 924 63. 135 India 34. 213 40. 765 49. 734 129. 421 138. 327 144. 310 ASEAN Source: DG Trade Statistics, European Commission (http: //ec. europa. eu/trade/issues/bilateral/dataxls. htm) / Eurostat

Figure 16: EU 25 OFDI and IFDI Stocks with Partners (2005) Figure 16: EU 25 OFDI and IFDI Stocks with Partners (2005)

Figure 13: EU 25 OFDI and IFDI Flows with Partners (2005) Figure 13: EU 25 OFDI and IFDI Flows with Partners (2005)

Table 13: Bound and Applied MFN Tariffs Country/ economy Binding Bound Applied Coverage Tariff Table 13: Bound and Applied MFN Tariffs Country/ economy Binding Bound Applied Coverage Tariff Rate (All Gods) (All Goods) (Manufactur es) Applied Tariff Rate (Agriculture ) Overall Applied Tariff (All Goods) EU 100, 0 4, 1 3, 6 9, 5 4, 5 US 100, 0 3, 6 3, 7 8, 2 4, 3 Japan 99, 6 5, 0 3, 3 10, 4 4, 7 Korea 94, 4 16, 1 6, 6 42, 5 11, 9 China 100, 0 10, 0 9, 5 15, 0 10, 3 Hong Kong 45, 7 0, 0 Malaysia 83, 7 14, 5 8, 1 2, 1 7, 3 Thailand 74, 7 25, 7 14, 6 16, 2 14, 7 Indonesia 96, 6 37, 1 6, 1 8, 0 6, 4 Philippines 66, 8 25, 6 6, 9 11, 8 7, 5 - - 12, 9 18, 1 13, 7 100, 0 6, 1 5, 5 16, 3 6, 9 Singapore 69, 2 6, 9 0, 0 India 73, 8 49, 8 25, 3 30, 0 28, 3 Pakistan 44, 3 52, 4 16, 1 13, 9 15, 9 Bangladesh 15, 8 163, 8 19, 2 21, 7 19, 5 Sri Lanka 37, 8 29, 8 9, 6 15, 4 10, 2 Vietnam Taiwan Source: World Bank: http: //siteresources. worldbank. org/INTRES/Resources/4692321107449512766/tar 2005 a. xls The figures are simple unweighted averages of the tariff rates in percent from the year of 2003 and 2004.

Applied Rates for EU, US and Asia Country/ economy 1995 2005 EU 4. 3 Applied Rates for EU, US and Asia Country/ economy 1995 2005 EU 4. 3 2. 5 US 4. 3 3. 0 Japan 3. 1 2. 7 Korea 8. 3 8. 6 Taiwan 11. 2 5. 3 Hong Kong 0. 0 Singapore 0. 4 0. 0 Malaysia *8. 4 7. 5 Indonesia 14. 0 6. 5 Philippines 19. 8 5. 4 Thailand 21. 0 9. 9 Vietnam **13 13. 1 China 22. 4 9. 0 India 41. 0 16. 0 Source: World Bank http: //siteresources. worldbank. org/INTRES/Resources/tar 2005. xls * Malaysia 1996 ** Vietnam 1997 Note: All tariffs rates are based on unweighted averages for all goods in ad valorem rates, or applied rates, or MFN rates whichever data is available in a longer period.

EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • The WTO -- Structural shifts from GATT EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • The WTO -- Structural shifts from GATT to WTO -- Doha round: evolution; state of play; prospects -- What future for the WTO?

EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • EU and the WTO -- Challenges of EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • EU and the WTO -- Challenges of co-leadership in a multipolar system -- EU negotiating positions: too defensive on agriculture; too offensive on other issues -- EU needs to have more pragmatic positions; be more effective in coalition building -- But constraints of internal EU politics

EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • FTAs -- Huge proliferation of FTAs -- EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • FTAs -- Huge proliferation of FTAs -- Building blocs or stumbling blocs? -- Strong FTAs the exception; most are “trade light” -- Consequences: rampant discrimination; the spaghetti bowl

EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • The new EU FTA policy -- Global EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • The new EU FTA policy -- Global Europe: economic/commercial rationale; WTO plus; but also non-trade motives; differences with EPAs/MENA -- Benchmarks for (relatively) strong, clean FTAs -- How serious is the economic/commercial logic? -- Exporting EU regulation and non-trade motives: labour/environmental standards; “sustainable development”; climate change etc. -- Comparisons with US FTAs on WTO plus issues -- Arguments from the sceptics: Why no FTAs with Japan and China? Narrow mercantilism; trade diversion; spaghetti/noodle bowls -- Very difficult to do serious FTAs with Asian and other partners

Table 14: European Union Free Trade and Association Agreements Trading partner Type of agreement Table 14: European Union Free Trade and Association Agreements Trading partner Type of agreement Status Effective application of EU acquis communautaire In force since 1996 Sector Free Trade Agreements Various dates Turkey Customs Union 31 -12 -1995 Croatia Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) Entered into force 01/01/05 Macedonia SAA Entered into force 01/05/05 Bosnia and Herzegovina SAA Negotiations ongoing Albania SAA Enters into force in early 2007 Montenegro SAA Negotiations ongoing Serbia SAA Negotiations on hold Russia Enhanced (cooperation) Agreement Negotiations ongoing. Council Negotiating Mandate of 13/11/06 Ukraine Enhanced (co-operation) Agreement Council still to agree to open negotiations Moldova Partnership and Cooperation Agreement jul-98 Algeria Euro-Med Agreement 1 -9 -2005 Egypt Euro-Med Agreement 31 -12 -2003 Israel Euro-Med Agreement 1 -6 -2000 Jordan Euro-Med Agreement 1 -5 -2002 Lebanon Interim Euro-Med Agreement 1 -3 -2002 Morocco Euro-Med Agreement 1 -3 -2000 Interim Euro-Med Agreement 1 -7 -1997 Europe EEA Switzerland North Africa and Middle East Palestinian Authority

Syria Euro-Med Agreement Negotiations concluded in 2004 but not signed Tunisia Euro-Med Agreement 01/03/1998 Syria Euro-Med Agreement Negotiations concluded in 2004 but not signed Tunisia Euro-Med Agreement 01/03/1998 Gulf Cooperation Council Free Trade Agreement Negotiations ongoing Iran Cooperation Agreement Negotiations ongoing since 2002 Iraq Cooperation Agreement Negotiations ongoing since November 2006 Africa ACP regions Economic Partnership Agreements Second phase of negotiations began in October 2003 scheduled for completion in 2008 South Africa Trade Development and Co-operation Agreement 1 -1 -2000 Economic Partnership Agreement 1 -2 -2000 Chile Association Agreement 1 -2 -2003 Mercosur Association Agreement Negotiations ongoing since 1999 CAN (Andean Community) Free Trade Agreement Negotiations complicated by Venezuela’s position in CAN CAFTA (Central America) Free Trade Agreement EU preparing negotiating mandate Trade and Investment Enhancement Agreement Proposal under discussion in the Council Free Trade Agreement to enhance existing cooperation Proposed South Korea Free Trade Agreement Proposed India Free Trade Agreement Proposed The Americas Mexico Canada Asian ASEAN Source: Woolcock, S. (2007) European Union Policy Towards Free Trade Agreements, ECIPE Working Paper No. 3/ 2007, pp. 12

Table 10 a: The Bilaterals Targeted by the EC Market Size [a] at Current Table 10 a: The Bilaterals Targeted by the EC Market Size [a] at Current USD Av. Industrial Tariff [b] at Applied PPP USD Regulatory Ranking [c] Bound Ease of Doing Business Trading Across Borders Dealing Registerin with g Property Licences Protecting Investors ASEAN 1, 9 4, 5 - - - - Indonesia 0, 6 1, 6 35 8, 3 135 60 131 120 60 Malasysia 0, 3 0, 5 11, 2 8, 6 25 46 137 66 4 Singapore 0, 3 0, 2 4, 1 0 1 4 8 12 2 Thailand 0, 4 0, 9 20, 2 13, 4 18 103 3 18 33 Korea 1, 6 10, 2 6, 7 23 28 28 67 60 Mercosur 1, 9 3, 6 - - - - Brazil 1, 5 2, 6 29, 4 15, 1 121 53 139 124 60 Argentina 0, 4 0, 8 - - 101 71 125 74 99 India 1, 6 5, 8 37 ~12. 0 134 139 155 110 33 Russia 1, 4 2, 6 - - 96 143 163 44 60 Gulf CC 1, 2 1, 0 - - - - UAE 0, 3 0, 2 - ~5. 1 77 10 79 8 60 Soudi Arabia 0, 6 - - 38 33 44 4 99 China 4, 7 14, 6 9, 2 9, 1 93 38 153 21 83 14, 3 33, 6 - - - - All Countries Source: P. Messerlin (2006) EC Trade Policy: At the Cross Roads, November 2006, ECIPE Launch Conference, Brussels and Groupe d'Economie Mondiale, Paris [a] GDP (in USD, 2004) as share of world GDP [b] Australian Productivity Commission [c] Doing Business 2007

Table 10 b: The Bilaterals Ignored and Done Market Size [a] at Current USD Table 10 b: The Bilaterals Ignored and Done Market Size [a] at Current USD Av. Industrial Tariff [b] at Applied PPP USD Regulatory Ranking [c] Bound Ease of Doing Business Trading Across Borders Dealing Registerin with g Property Licences Protecting Investors Australia 1, 5 1, 1 11, 0 3, 5 8 23 23 27 46 Canada 2, 4 1, 8 5, 3 3, 3 4 8 32 22 5 Hong Kong 0, 7 0, 4 - 0, 0 5 1 64 60 3 Japan 11, 1 6, 6 2, 3 1, 6 11 19 2 39 12 Taiwan 0, 8 1, 0 4, 7 4, 5 47 42 148 24 60 USA 28, 4 20, 3 3, 4 2, 6 3 11 22 10 5 All Countries 45, 0 31, 1 - - - - Chile 0, 2 0, 3 ~25. 0 ~6. 0 28 44 40 30 19 Mexico 1, 7 1, 8 34, 8 17, 2 43 86 30 79 33 South Africa 0, 5 0, 9 11, 0 8, 3 29 67 45 69 9 Turkey 0, 7 0, 6 - 11, 8 91 79 148 54 60 All Countries 3, 1 3, 6 - - - - Source: P. Messerlin (2006) EC Trade Policy: At the Cross Roads, November 2006, ECIPE Launch Conference, Brussels and Groupe d'Economie Mondiale, Paris [a] GDP (in USD, 2004) as share of world GDP [b] Australian Productivity Commission [c] Doing Business 2007

The map shows FTAs signed or under negotiation in January 2006. East Asia is The map shows FTAs signed or under negotiation in January 2006. East Asia is defined here as the 10 ASEANs, China, Japan and Korea. Source Richard Baldwin 2006

Noodle bowl syndrome in Africa Source: World Bank Noodle bowl syndrome in Africa Source: World Bank

Noodle bowl syndrome in America Source: Inter-American Development Bank. Noodle bowl syndrome in America Source: Inter-American Development Bank.

EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • Unilateral liberalisation -- Diminishing returns to trade EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • Unilateral liberalisation -- Diminishing returns to trade negotiations; importance of unilateral measures; Asia and China -- EU trade policy as foreign policy and internal-market policy; link between internal and external liberalisation -- Internal-market reforms key; trade-policy reinforcement

EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • New members: trade-policy reforms pre-accession -- Post-socialist EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • New members: trade-policy reforms pre-accession -- Post-socialist transition: radical reformers (new EU members); gradual reformers (China/Vietnam); erratic reformers (CIS) -- New EU members: general liberalising trend in ’ 90 s, but variation among them -- Convergence of EU-10/12 with EU-15 trade policy, esp. from late 1990 s -- Net liberalisation in trade in industrial goods and services, but not agriculture; the Estonian exception -- Major reorientation of trade; FDI effects; trade creation/diversion

EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • New members in EU trade policy: state EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • New members in EU trade policy: state of play and prospects -- Expectations: somewhere between more liberal orientation and no change -- Reality: virtually no change so far; EU 10/12 passive, reactive; mixed positions; danger of “Our Market is Big Enough”, “restaurant bill” syndromes -- EU-Russia; Russian accession to WTO -- Variable internal implementation of common commercial policy

EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • Conclusion -- EU: challenge of constructive engagement EU AND THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM • Conclusion -- EU: challenge of constructive engagement while containing domestic protectionism -- Multi-track trade policy and internal-market reforms -- What role for the new members?