Established and Emerging Markets for Commercial Space Transportation Jeff Foust 2011 August 16 Futron Corporation • 7315 Wisconsin Avenue, Suite 900 W • Bethesda, Maryland 20814 Phone 301 -913 -9372 • Fax 301 -913 -9475 • www. futron. com ISO 9001 Registered Better Decisions…Better Future
Overview • Overview and Disclaimer • Review of Established Markets for CST • Review of Emerging Markets for CST ISO 9001 Registered Better Decisions…Better Future • 2
About Futron • Futron is a premier provider of decision management solutions (DMS) • We are a decision management support, technology consulting, and engineering firm specializing in the space and satellite sectors • In business since 1986, Futron employs a staff of approximately 100 professionals in three main facilities • Futron’s supports government, military, and commercial industry leaders in making critical and complex decisions Space & Telecommunications Bethesda, MD ISO 9001 Registered Engineering & Risk Assessment Risk Management Bethesda and Hampton, VA Houston, TX Better Decisions…Better Future • 3
Disclaimer • “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. ” Ø - Niels Bohr and/or Yogi Berra • Forecasts are our predictions of how demand will evolve in the future based on best available information, assumptions, and models • Subject to change based on developments either unforeseen or unforeseeable • Example: NGSO market forecasts in late 1990 s: ISO 9001 Registered Better Decisions…Better Future • 4
Why Forecast? • Vehicle developers and service providers Ø How much demand is there? Enough to close a business model? • Investors Ø Are these companies right when they there’s this much demand? • Regulators Ø Need to know potential demand for these services to plan according for licensing and related activities • Enthusiasts/Advocates Ø Demonstrates demand to others, including for lobbying ISO 9001 Registered Better Decisions…Better Future • 5
Two Classes of CST Markets • Established Markets Ø Ø Ø Already generating demand for commercial launches Projected to continue for at least near-term future Examples: • • GSO communications satellites NGSO communications satellites Remote sensing satellites Miscellaneous • Emerging Markets Ø Ø Ø Not yet generating (significant) demand for commercial launches However, expected to emerge in the near-term future Examples: • • ISO 9001 Registered Commercial cargo transportation (to ISS or elsewhere) Commercial crew transportation (to ISS) Orbital space tourism Sovereign clients Scientific research Suborbital space tourism Suborbital research/other applications Better Decisions…Better Future • 6
GSO Communications Satellites • Biggest, most mature CST market • Average ~15 launches/year last decade • 2011 COMSTAC forecast Ø 20. 5 satellites/year, 15. 6 launches/year • Flat market foreseeable future ISO 9001 Registered Better Decisions…Better Future • 7
NGSO Communications Satellites • Replenishment/replacement of Globalstar, Iridium, and ORBCOMM satellite constellations • Peaks of demand during fleet replacement, with long lulls • No evidence of additional major systems in development • FAA forecast: ISO 9001 Registered Better Decisions…Better Future • 8
Commercial Remote Sensing Satellites • Low Earth orbit satellites by Digital. Globe, Geo. Eye, others • Low volume of launch activity, primarily for fleet replacement or augmentation • FAA forecast: ISO 9001 Registered Better Decisions…Better Future • 9
Miscellaneous Satellites • “Grab bag” of primarily NGSO satellites, including satellites by governments who procure launch services commercially • Traditionally low but steady demand, with occasional surges of activity • FAA forecast (for “science and engineering”): ISO 9001 Registered Better Decisions…Better Future • 10
Commercial Cargo • NASA has Commercial Resupply Services contracts with Orbital Sciences and Space. X for ISS cargo missions • While for a government customer, considered commercial launches (FAA licensed) • Potential demand from other, commercial customers (e. g. , Bigelow), if crew transportation markets develop • FAA forecast: ISO 9001 Registered Better Decisions…Better Future • 11
Commercial Crew to ISS • NASA’s Commercial Crew Development (CCDev) program seeking to develop vehicles for crew transportation to ISS Ø Also available for use for other markets • Estimated ~2 launches/year (depending on vehicle size, crew size, and crew rotation rates) ISO 9001 Registered Better Decisions…Better Future • 12
Orbital Space Tourism • Orbital space tourism has existed since 2001, but has not generated CST demand Ø Relied to date on spare seats on non-commercial Soyuz taxi flights • CCDev vehicles, plus dedicated Soyuz flights, may change this by mid-decade • 2011 NASA Commercial Market Assessment (CMA): 8– 143 spaceflight participants over next 10 years • Futron 2002 demand forecast: ISO 9001 Registered Better Decisions…Better Future • 13
Sovereign Clients • Long history of US and USSR/Russia flying astronauts from other nations • Demand likely to continue and may be best served by commercial vehicles, especially to non-ISS destinations • NASA CMA estimate: between 36 and 216 people over next 10 years (plus 6, 180– 28, 430 lbs of cargo) ISO 9001 Registered Better Decisions…Better Future • 14
Scientific Research • Commercial research on ISS or other facilities Ø Ø Above and beyond NASA’s needs to support ISS Identified as a major market for companies like Bigelow Aerospace • NASA CMA demand: up to 13, 400 lbs of cargo (no crew) over next 10 years ISO 9001 Registered Better Decisions…Better Future • 15
Suborbital Space Tourism • An area of significant interest, but developing more slowly than previously anticipated. • Futron 2006 demand forecast: • Astrium/IPSOS 2011 forecast: Ø Ø 600 -750 participants in the first year of service 14, 800 -21, 700 participants per year in year 8 ISO 9001 Registered Better Decisions…Better Future • 16
Suborbital Research/Other Applications • Growing interest in using suborbital platforms for a variety of scientific research or tech demonstrations • No quantification of demand here yet (although there have been purchases of flights for research purposes by NASA and other entities), but qualitatively there is interest, provided sufficient funding ISO 9001 Registered Better Decisions…Better Future • 17
Other Markets • • Entertainment Google Lunar X PRIZE Propellant Depots ? ? ? ISO 9001 Registered Better Decisions…Better Future • 18
Conclusions • Established markets for CST are steady, but slow/no growth Ø Ø GSO communications is the bedrock of the industry Modest NGSO demand • Emerging markets for CST show potential for considerable growth, but not yet realized Ø Ø Particularly suborbital/orbital space tourism Whether and how these markets materialize will determine the growth of CST in the next decade • Forecasts are a measure of what could happen based on the current state of knowledge, not what will happen • They can be used as a guide to the future (and to help guide that future) when their limitations are appreciated ISO 9001 Registered Better Decisions…Better Future • 19
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