EQUITABLE THE CASE OF KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA Province-Wise

EQUITABLE THE CASE OF KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA

Province-Wise Per Capita Electricity Consumption FY 2009 -10 Description Sindh-Karachi Electricity GWh KWh person % of total 10, 052 1, 020 13. 5 5, 241 255 7 46, 696 627 62. 8 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 8, 259 395 11. 1 Balochistan 4, 099 624 5. 3 74, 347 562 100 Sindh-Rural Punjab Pakistan

DISCO wise Peak-Demand/Load Drawl S. No Name of Disco Peak Demand (MW) 1. LESCO GEPCO 1974 3. FESCO 2690 4. IESCO 2201 5. MEPCO 3145 6. HESCO 1116 7. SEPCO 933 8. QESCO 9. PESCO* Percentage Share 4268 2. Total Demand (MW) *Excl. FATA 10. TESCO 11857 (Punjab) 64. 1% 2049 (Sindh) 11. 1% 1538 Baluchistan 8. 3% 2490 (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) 13. 47% 554 3. 03% TOTAL KESC 18488 2196

CRISIS IN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA IS BLOWING OUT OF PROPORTIONS

DURATION OF LOAD SHEDDING IN KHYBER PAKHTHWA Urban 12 – 14 hours Rural 16 - 20 hours Quantum of Protests Month No of protests Remarks June 2012 97 Approximate 3 protests per day in various districts July 2012 158 Average 5 per day 1 -7 August 2012 33 Average 5 per day in Ramzan • The situation is being handled by the administration with great difficulty. 6

Guiding Principle “(We will) ensure equitable load shedding in Country” Recommendation No. 1– National Energy Summit, 9 th April 2012 EQUITABLE (ekwɪtəbl) 1 : having or exhibiting equity : dealing fairly and equally with all concerned <an equitable settlement of the dispute>. Merriam Webster 2: fair and reasonable; treating everyone in a fairly equal way. Synonym: fair - an equitable distribution of resources. Oxford Advance learner “Equitable” does not just mean “EQUAL” Other factors need to be weighed

Equitable Load shedding Each Province may be supplied electricity out of the available generation as per its percentile proportion established above. OR Each Province may be required to shed load from its Maximum Demand at the percentile proportion out of the shortfall

Facts on ground !!! q. Optics of deprivation worsening, fanning parochial sentiments. Province is producing 3582 MW of cheapest energy while Peak demand of the province is about 2490 MW, As such surplus of 1092 MW q. Most frugal in use of electricity (Least per capita amongst Provinces). q. Low ratio of investment in augmentation of system (PESCO receiving least priority in PEPCO investment plan). q. While dealing PESCO, a clear bias in opening grid by NPCC, with no consultation of Province or provincial administration.

FACTS IN FIGURES Province-wise Units Billed (Actual vs. Capacity) Punjab LESCO FESCO GEPCO MEPCO FY 2010 -11 16987 9686 7134 12470 2011 -12 17547 10005 7547 12879 21% 12% 9% 16% Sindh KPK (Excl. KESC) (Incl. FATA) Balochistan TOTAL IESCO HESCO SEPCO PESCO QESCO (Units Received in GWh) 8503 4654 4197 11119 5086 79836 8771 4775 4299 11526 5288 82637 11% 6% 5% 14% 6% 100% 69% 11% 14% 6% 100% Province-wise Investment made on augmentation of system FY Punjab Sindh FESCO GEPCO MEPCO IESCO HESCO SEPCO LESCO KPK Balochistan TOTAL PESCO QESCO (Investment made in Million PKR) 2010 -11 6, 426 3, 872 3, 212 5, 840 6, 137 2, 246 3, 915 2011 -12 7, 086 17% 4, 030 10% 2, 900 9% 6, 932 16% 6, 200 16% 2, 665 6% 2, 389 6% 3, 917 10% 3, 610 10% 18% 10% 7% 16% 7% 6% 10% 9% 13% 10% 9% 37, 452 39, 729 3, 558 68% 100%

Province wise Domestic – Rural Consumers Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Punjab Load Feeders (MW) Sindh Balochistan Load Feeders (MW) Total 2445 5985 557 2277 546 1280 159 521 Rural 1171 2527 418 1813 388 822 33 104 48% 42% 75% 80% 71% 64% 21% 20% In case of any arrangement with higher load shedding on RURAL feeders, KPK is worst hit

PESCO SYSTEM PROFILE S# Description Total # Overloaded % Overloading 01 Power Transformers installed at grids / substations 192 125 66. 1% 02 Transmission Lines feeding Grids / SSs 107 21 20% 03 11 KV Distribution Feeders 704 312 44. 3% RESULTS IN AT LEAST 300 MW LOADSHEDDING UNDER OPTIMUM CONDITIONS (NO DEFICIT SCENARIO)

Date LOAD BEING SHED PRESENTLY (PESCO QUOTA + NPCC) Average Avg. Computed Demand Power Inflow Quota Allocated (MW) 1/7/2012 1153 2346 1278 2/7/2012 1153 2502 1098 3/7/2012 1153 2414 1220 4/7/2012 1153 2476 1332 5/7/2012 1153 2445 1370 6/7/2012 937 2435 1367 7/7/2012 878 2279 1378 8/7/2012 735 2131 1352 9/7/2012 911 2372 1423 10/7/2012 1012 2416 1253 11/7/2012 970 2470 1386 12/7/2012 963 2331 1333 13/7/2012 607 2132 1342 14/7/2012 677 2116 1407 15/7/2012 384 1999 1451 16/7/2012 816 2251 1454 17/7/2012 1015 2373 1383 18/7/2012 833 2267 1407 19/7/2012 352 2120 1425 20/7/2012 365 2060 1434 21/7/2012 324 2022 1425 22/7/2012 234 2211 1476 23/7/2012 234 2388 1442 24/7/2012 234 2305 1273 25/7/2012 234 2248 1391 26/7/2012 234 2174 1377 27/7/2012 234 2405 1335 28/7/2012 234 2539 1201 29/7/2012 234 2500 1243 30/7/2012 234 2609 1345 31/7/2012 234 2493 1279 Average for the Month 2317 1351 Load Shedding Carried out against Quota (MW) 800 683 696 970 969 926 796 762 927 971 943 997 793 705 477 782 979 779 508 477 199 195 325 448 500 581 571 511 536 408 452 667 Total (MW) Forced Shedding under the instructions of NPCC/RCC Islamabad (MW) 1036 268 1398 715 1194 498 1144 174 1075 106 1227 301 837 41 797 35 962 35 1213 242 1029 86 997 0 802 9 705 0 477 0 812 30 1093 114 779 0 508 0 524 47 402 203 550 355 888 563 1032 584 857 357 796 215 1071 500 1294 783 1252 716 1264 856 759 1211 % Load Shed 44% 56% 49% 46% 44% 50% 37% 41% 50% 42% 43% 38% 33% 24% 36% 46% 34% 25% 20% 25% 37% 45% 38% 37% 45% 51% 50% 48% 49% 277 943 41%

A CLEAR ILLUSTRATION OF “INEQUITY” – ANY GIVEN DAY Wednesday, August 01, 2012 TENTATIVE GENERATION AND LOAD SUPPLIED TO DISCOS HOURS 02: 00 03: 00 04: 00 05: 00 06: 00 07: 00 08: 00 09: 00 10. 00 11. 00 12. 00 13. 00 14. 00 15. 00 16. 00 17. 00 18. 00 19. 00 20. 00 21. 00 22. 00 23. 00 24. 00 DESCRIPTION LOAD (MW) A - GENERATION. 11800 13000 12900 11600 12200 12300 12400 12500 12500 12000 13200 13100 12100 11700 B - EXPORT TO KESC. 600 650 600 600 600 700 700 600 650 600 600 C - T & T LOSS. & AUXILIAR 708 780 774 714 696 732 738 744 750 750 750 720 792 792 786 726 702 CONSUMPTION. (6% OF A) D - LOAD SUPPLIED TO 10492 11570 11476 10586 10304 10768 10868 10962 11056 11050 11150 11100 10680 11758 11808 11758 11664 10774 10398 DISCOS (=A-B-C) PESCO ( 16% of D ) 1679 1851 1836 1694 1649 1723 1739 1754 1769 1768 1784 1776 1709 1881 1889 1881 1866 1724 1664 Actual Drawn by PESCO 1339 1268 1300 1471 1518 1577 1558 1523 1590 1394 1363 1336 1461 1283 1486 1490 1649 1545 1442 1405 1312 1494 1447 Difference Actual Load Made Available -340 -583 -536 -222 -131 -71 -165 -215 -164 -375 -405 -432 -323 -501 -290 -219 -60 -336 -447 -476 -554 -229 -216 13 11 11 14 15 15 14 14 15 13 12 12 13 14 15 13 12 12 11 14 14 % % % % % %

PESCO Tuesday, July 31, 2012 (0100 TO 1100 HRS) Monday, July 30, 2012 (1200 TO 2400 HRS) TENTATIVE GENERATION AND LOAD SUPPLIED TO DISCOS HOURS 01: 00 02: 00 03: 00 04: 00 05: 00 06: 00 07: 00 08: 00 09: 00 10. 00 11. 00 12. 00 13. 00 14. 00 15. 00 16. 00 17. 00 18. 00 19. 00 20. 00 21. 00 22. 00 23. 00 24. 00 DESCRIPTION LOAD (MW) A - GENERATION. B - EXPORT TO KESC. 11700 11900 13000 12700 11900 11700 12200 12300 12400 12400 11600 13000 11800 11700 650 600 650 650 700 600 600 600 700 650 600 C - T & T LOSS. & AUXILIAR 702 714 780 762 714 702 702 732 738 744 744 744 696 780 780 708 702 CONSUMPTION. (6% OF A) D - LOAD SUPPLIED 10398 10536 11620 11288 10536 10348 10298 10868 10962 11056 11056 10304 10204 11620 11570 11620 11520 10442 10398 TO DISCOS (=A-B-C) PESCO ( 16% of D ) 1664 1686 1859 1806 1686 1656 1648 1739 1754 1769 1769 1649 1633 1859 1851 1859 1843 1671 1664 Actual Power Drawn by PESCO on 1467 1425 1443 1123 1357 1647 1625 1221 1450 1012 1369 1385 1151 1364 1309 1320 1451 1762 1513 1490 1406 1488 1657 31 st July, 2012 Difference Actual Provision -196 -261 -416 -683 -329 -9 -9 -23 -517 -289 -742 -400 -384 -618 -405 -460 -329 -181 14 14 12 10 13 16 16 16 11 13 9% -97 -338 -369 -437 -183 -7 12 13 10 12 12 13 14 15 13 13 12 14 16

In-equitibility q 16% Quota on 2006 Baseline (KPK 13. 47 + TESCO 3. 03 + AJK 45 MW) – Baseline Debatable: No justification, not giving weight to cheaper generation, frugality of use, system legacies. q. Urban – Rural Differentiation --- Adding insult to injury q. IESCO’s industrial load, shifted to Hattar due to relocation of Industry (50+ MW) --- (No upward Revision of 2006 Quota) q. Forced Load Shedding, yet accounted as “Drawals” q. Technological inadequacies, controverting “equitable” implementation.

Process Management q. Manual and Crude (Not automated, phone calls – Hotline carriers, verbal commands/reporting) q. Arbitrary/Whimsical (No or conflicting written directions – Lack of SOPs forced opening of grids) q. Technological inadequacies, controverting “equitable” implementation. q. Responsibilities diffused, conduct and operations not predictable. q. Distant Control – Indifference to Human Element Real people, real miseries Playing into the whims and biases of operators/button-pushers

Conclusion q“Equitable Load Shedding” as designed and perceivably implemented presently, is elusive, conceptually and in reality. q. The enforcement regime is perpetuating unjust dispensation of power distribution in Khyer Pakhtunkhwa. q. Centralized load-shedding control system, on one side disempowers the DISCO, while on the other, detracts from forthright responsibility and its accompanying appropriate conduct. q. The centralized power system has failed to deliver, necessitating decentralization of both Generation and Distribution to the Provinces