Скачать презентацию Equitable Climate Change Mitigation A New Formulation Robert Скачать презентацию Equitable Climate Change Mitigation A New Formulation Robert

2f92769060d4f85c73e44926974b6c41.ppt

  • Количество слайдов: 6

“Equitable” Climate Change Mitigation: A New Formulation Robert Socolow Princeton University socolow@princeton. edu Informal “Equitable” Climate Change Mitigation: A New Formulation Robert Socolow Princeton University [email protected] edu Informal Thematic Debate of the UN General Assembly on Climate Change as a Global Challenge Panel on Mitigation Strategies in the context of Sustainable Development United Nations July 31, 2007 For further reading, see two papers by Steve Pacala and Rob Socolow: 1) “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the climate problem for the next 50 years with current technologies, ” Science, 305 (5686), August 13, 2004, 968 -972 (and its Supporting Online Material). 2) “A plan to keep carbon in check, ” Scientific American, September 2006, 50 -57.

Wedges Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year 14 ly Historical emissions 7 Wedges Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year 14 ly Historical emissions 7 t en rr j ro p d te ec 14 Gt. C/y h at p Seven “wedges” Goal: In 50 years, same global emissions as today Cu Flat path O 2. 0 0 1955 2005 2055 Today and in 50 years, global per-capita emissions are ≈ 1 t. C/yr. 2105

Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Seven Wedges Energy Efficiency Methane Management 14 Gt. C/y Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Seven Wedges Energy Efficiency Methane Management 14 Gt. C/y Stabilization Triangle Forests & Soils 2004 7 Gt. C/y 2054 Fuel Displacement by Low-Carbon Electricity Decarbonized Fuels

OECD and non-OECD shares Source. I Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September 2006, p. OECD and non-OECD shares Source. I Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September 2006, p. 56

Per-capita Carbon Emissions Bins III-V in 2030: Equitable policy: • 9 of 11 Gt/yr Per-capita Carbon Emissions Bins III-V in 2030: Equitable policy: • 9 of 11 Gt/yr emissions Free pass in 2030 for the 5 billion people in Bins I and II • OECD 45% • 3 of 8 billion people • OECD 40% Source: M. Tavoni and S. Chakravarty, 7 -07

Can We Do It? People (we!) are becoming increasingly determined to lower the risk Can We Do It? People (we!) are becoming increasingly determined to lower the risk that we and our children will experience major social dislocation and environmental havoc as a result of rising CO 2 in the atmosphere …and we are learning that there are many ways of changing how we live, what we buy, and how we spend our time, that will make a difference. We are in the midst of a discontinuity: What once seemed too hard has become what simply must be done. Precedents include abolishing child labor, addressing the needs of the disabled, and mitigating air pollution.