“Equitable” Climate Change Mitigation: A New Formulation Robert Socolow Princeton University socolow@princeton. edu Informal Thematic Debate of the UN General Assembly on Climate Change as a Global Challenge Panel on Mitigation Strategies in the context of Sustainable Development United Nations July 31, 2007 For further reading, see two papers by Steve Pacala and Rob Socolow: 1) “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the climate problem for the next 50 years with current technologies, ” Science, 305 (5686), August 13, 2004, 968 -972 (and its Supporting Online Material). 2) “A plan to keep carbon in check, ” Scientific American, September 2006, 50 -57.
Wedges Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year 14 ly Historical emissions 7 t en rr j ro p d te ec 14 Gt. C/y h at p Seven “wedges” Goal: In 50 years, same global emissions as today Cu Flat path O 2. 0 0 1955 2005 2055 Today and in 50 years, global per-capita emissions are ≈ 1 t. C/yr. 2105
Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Seven Wedges Energy Efficiency Methane Management 14 Gt. C/y Stabilization Triangle Forests & Soils 2004 7 Gt. C/y 2054 Fuel Displacement by Low-Carbon Electricity Decarbonized Fuels
OECD and non-OECD shares Source. I Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September 2006, p. 56
Per-capita Carbon Emissions Bins III-V in 2030: Equitable policy: • 9 of 11 Gt/yr emissions Free pass in 2030 for the 5 billion people in Bins I and II • OECD 45% • 3 of 8 billion people • OECD 40% Source: M. Tavoni and S. Chakravarty, 7 -07
Can We Do It? People (we!) are becoming increasingly determined to lower the risk that we and our children will experience major social dislocation and environmental havoc as a result of rising CO 2 in the atmosphere …and we are learning that there are many ways of changing how we live, what we buy, and how we spend our time, that will make a difference. We are in the midst of a discontinuity: What once seemed too hard has become what simply must be done. Precedents include abolishing child labor, addressing the needs of the disabled, and mitigating air pollution.
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