EPOG seminar The ecological transitions of the digital

EPOG seminar The ecological transitions of the digital society 25 November 2016 Cédric GOSSART http: //gossart. wp. mines-telecom. fr/ / cedric. gossart@telecom-em. eu

TEM = The business school of IMT = 26 engineering & business schools

Outline 1. Introduction 2. The issues at stake 2. 1. ICT & natural ecosystems 2. 2. The ecology of the mind 3. Transition pathways 3. 1. Unlocking eco-innovations 3. 2. Bursting information bubbles 4. Conclusion

1. Introduction

http: //www. itu. int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Documents/publications/mis 2013/MIS 2013_without_Annex_4. pdf

https: //www. itu. int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Documents/facts/ICTFacts. Figures 2014 -e. pdf.

http: //www. itu. int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Documents/publications/mis 2013/MIS 2013_without_Annex_4. pdf

Planetary boundaries “The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth System. ” Source: http: //www. stockholmresilience. org.

Technological niches Source: Geels, F. , Schot, J. , 2007. Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways. Research Policy 36, 399 -417. An ecological digital society?

Does Twitter Make Politics More Partisan? The homophily principle: similarity breeds connection. Mc. Pherson, M. , Smith-Lovin, L. , Cook, J. M. , 2001. Birds of a Feather: Homophily in Social Networks. Annual Review of Sociology 27, 415 -444. Social media breed info bubbles: “Here’s How Facebook Actually Won Trump the Presidency”. https: //www. fastcodesign. com/1664612/infographic-ofthe-day-does-twitter-make-our-politics-more-partisan https: //www. wired. com/2016/11/facebook-won-trumpelection-not-just-fake-news/.

2. The issues at stake

Source : http: //www 2. cnrs. fr/en/2155. htm

Raw materials What are ICT equipments made of?

Metals in Electrical and Electronic Equipments (EEE) Source: Hagelüken, C. and M. Buchert (2008). The mine above ground. Industrial Engineering Research Conference. Salzbourg (Austria).

Rare metals

Rare earth elements

War minerals Blood in your mobile A new business model? http: //www. fairphone. com/roadmap/mining/ + Guardian article

Energy use

Waste of electrical and electronic equipment WEEE E-waste

Relationships between ICT & Environment Source: Technology and Sustainable Development, Norderstedt: Books on Demand, p. 147.

The (dirty) story of electronics http: //storyofstuff. org/movies/story-of-electronics/

IT addicts Five clues that you are addicted to Facebook http: //edition. cnn. com/2009/HEALTH/04/23/ep. faceboo k. addict/index. html? iref=24 hours At war with World of Warcraft: an addict tells his story http: //www. theguardian. com/technology/2011/au g/29/world-of-warcraft-video-game-addict

http: //www. journalism. org/2016/05/26/news-use-across-social-mediaplatforms-2016/pj_2016 -05 -26_social-media-and-news_0 -01/ http: //www. nytimes. com/2014/10/25/upshot/am ericans-dont-live-in-information-cocoons. html http: //www. theatlantic. com/magazine/archive/2008/07/is -google-making-us-stupid/306868/

The risks of “information cocoons” Fragmentation & filtering: risks for democracy? 1. Restrict diversity of viewpoints 2. Impoverish democratic debate 3. Restrict freedom to make well-informed choices

Benjamin Franklin (1787): "A republic, if you can keep it. " Source : http: //constitutioncenter. org/

3. Transition pathways

Example: the lighting transition 35

What is eco-innovation? https: //www. researchgate. net/publication/284835216_Lockin_and_path_dependence_an_evolutionary_approach_to_eco-innovations 36

• Definitions (reference in JEE paper) Kemp and Oltra (2011: 249): Eco-innovations are “innovations whose environmental impact on a life cycle basis is lower than those of relevant alternatives”. Source: Cecere, G. , N. Corrocher, et al. (2014). Lock-in and path dependence: An evolutionary approach to eco-innovations. Journal of Evolutionary Economics 24(5): 1037 -1065. link

How can eco-innovations transform digital societies? 38

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Systematic evaluation of the environmental aspects of a product or service system through all stages of its life cycle.

Source: Hischier, R. & I. Baudin (2010), "LCA study of a plasma television device", The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment 15(5): 428 -438. S The complete life cycle of a plasma television device ARD: abiotic resource depletion; GWP: global warming potential; ODP: stratospheric ozone depletion potential; PCOP: photochemical oxidation potential; AP: acidification potential; EP: eutrophication potential; HTP human: toxicity potential; FAETP: freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity potential; MAETP: marine aquatic ecotoxicity potential; TETP: terrestrial ecotoxicity potential; EI'99: total Eco-Indicator '99 method (previous: with CML)

Impacts of computer components Source: Eugster, M. , R. Hischier, et al. (2007). Key environmental impacts of the Chinese EEE industry - a life cycle assessment study. Prepared for State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). St. Gallen / Switzerland; Beijing / China, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Testing and Research (Empa); Tsinghua University China.

Green IT* fights obsolescence… http: //www. centennialbulb. org/ See : http: //knowledge. wharton. upenn. edu/article. cfm? articleid=1536 * Digital technologies seeking to achieve significant progress towards sustainable development.

Which eco-innovations for ICT? • Ecodesigned ICT: – – Use phase: responsible consumption – • Production phase: ecodesign + CSR End-of-life: design for recycling + responsible e-waste management Use of ICT to reduce ecological impacts (IT for green).

Exemple 1: Smart grids

Exemple 2: Yahoo! datacentre PUE = 1, 08 40% reduction energy costs Source : http: //www. pcworld. com/article/205728/yahoo_opens_chicken_coop_green_data_center. html.

Exemple 3: Software eco-innovation http: //www. teragir. org/ http: //www. jeunesreporters. org/

Exemple 4: Environmental monitoring Source : GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems). http: //www. earthobservations. org/geoss. shtml + https: //gossart. wp. mines-telecom. fr/files/2016/01/Num%C 3%A 9 rique-et-environnement-draft. pdf

Source : OECD (2010), "Information Technology Outlook", summary available at: http: //www. oecd. org/document/20/0, 3746, en_2649_34449_41892820_1_1, 00. html. Exemple 5: Telework

49 https: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Fate_of_the_World Exemple 6: Serious gaming

Exemple 7: The edible battery http: //www. cmu. edu/homepage/health/2013/spring/incredible-edible. shtml

Exemple 8: The fair phone http: //www. ethicalconsumer. org/latestnews/entryid/1687/uk-launch-of-ethical-smartphone. aspx http: //www. theguardian. com/commentisfree/2013/mar/11/search-smartphone-soaked-blood http: //www. independent. co. uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/fairphone-theworlds-first-ethical-smartphone-launches-in-london-8829444. html

Exemple 9: Simple design

Exemple 10: Ecodesign http: //www. ivm. vu. nl/en/news-and-agenda/IVM-Newsletter/Archive/March-2010/Chemistry-and-Biology/

page 54 https: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Cradle-to-cradle_design Cradle-to-cradle ecodesign

https: //www. bloomberg. com/view/articles/2012 -0903/how-voters-can-escape-from-information-cocoons Gossart, C. (2014), Can Digital Technologies Threaten Democracy by Creating Information Cocoons? . In J. Bishop (Ed. ), Transforming Politics and Policy in the Digital Age (pp. 145 -154). Hershey, PA: Information Science Reference. http: //gossart. wp. mines-telecom. fr/files/2013/08/Gossart_V 03. pdf.

Source: https: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=_cd. So. Mbw. TA 4.

4. Conclusion

THANK YOU. cedric. gossart@telecom-em. eu • Webpage: http: //gossart. wp. mines-telecom. fr/ • Published papers: https: //www. researchgate. net/profile/Cedric_Gossart/

Sum up slides for… https: //www. researchgate. net/publication/284835216_Lockin_and_path_dependence_an_evolutionary_approach_to_eco-innovations 60

• Definitions (references in JEE paper) Taylor et al. (2005: 698): eco-innovations safeguard public goods, which are not necessarily protected by standard innovations: “‘Environmental technology’ refers to everything from ‘end-ofpipe’ pollution control technologies to alternative energy technologies that share the characteristic of helping to maintain the ‘public good’ of a clean environment. ”

• Definitions (references in JEE paper) Rennings (2013: 333): eco-innovations (EI) can be a byproduct of other innovations: “Environmental innovations consist of new or modified processes, techniques, practices, systems and products to avoid or to reduce environmental harms. Environmental innovations may be developed with or without the explicit aim of reducing environmental harm. ”

• Definitions (references in JEE paper) European Commission (2011): “Eco-innovation is any form of innovation resulting in or aiming at significant and demonstrable progress towards the goal of sustainable development, through reducing impacts on the environment, enhancing resilience to environmental pressures, or achieving a more efficient and responsible use of natural resources” NB: Other definitions are listed in the Table A 1 of the JEE paper (in appendix).

• Case studies: What do they tell us about EI? Commonalities between eco-innovations and standard innovations • Require similar resources to be developed & adopted (knowledge, capabilities, coordination and attention). • Development intentional/unintentional. • Various forms: production equipment, methods and procedures, product designs, product delivery mechanisms, new or modified processes, practices, systems and products. • Can result from organisational changes (transform organisational processes, e. g. recycling schemes, EMAS).

• Case studies Differences between eco-innovations and standard innovations • Eco-innovations have to meet, intentionally or not, specific environmental goals. • The development of eco-innovations depends upon the degree of environmental knowledge and sensibility towards green issues on producers’ and consumers’ sides. • Eco-innovation claims hard to verify (best = LCA), except if they follow strict guidelines, norms, labels or standards.

• Case studies Shouldn’t all innovations be eco-innovations? Why do eco-innovations fail? Because of social events. Brian Arthur (1989): increasing returns to adoption. • Small historical accidents can provide a given technology an initial advantage over competitors that can create path dependence. Cf. Qwerty. • Lock-in may also derive from individuals’ characteristics, attitudes and behaviours (Rogers 1995).

• Case studies What social aspects cause the lock-in of eco-innovations? • Continuous improvements in a given technology further strengthens their market. • For example, the internal combustion engine (ICE) was environmentally improved by efficiency inventions such as direct fuel injection, particle filters, and new combustion concepts (Oltra and Saint Jean 2009). • => strong and persistent dominant design (most engine innovations still focused on incremental changes within this design + on the consumer side: demand for incremental changes).

• Case studies Example of power plants (lock-in due to incremental changes) • Since 1980: Coal-fired power plants dominate, no radical innovation succeeded (Rennings et al. 2013). • Only changes: technological components (e. g. scrubbing technologies to remove sulphur and nitrogen oxides), no fundamental changes in existing plants to avoid harming productivity. • => energy efficiency of German power plants gradually improved by combining established gas and steam cycles => lock-in carbon-based plants. • => old technologies could keep up with newer and more efficient ones (locked in technological niches) => reinforcement of barriers to paradigm shifts.

• Case studies Example of cars (lock-in due to incremental changes) • Social aspects of lock-in => domination of incremental innovations: lack of new infrastructure and capital required for more radical technological changes + sunk costs (Costantini and Mazzanti 2012). • => emergence of 2 main trajectories (Dijk et al. 2011): – Improvement of vehicles powered by ICE; – Slow diffusion of electricity-powered vehicles.

• Case studies Other sources of lock-in: Cost-related factors • Increasing returns to scale keep costs down, and an existing technology such as the internal combustion engine limits high sunk costs related with the development a new fuel infrastructure. • The importance of the financial commitment required to ecoinnovate is often mentioned as a barrier to implement environmental programmes (Noci and Verganti 1999), but it is particularly the case for SMEs (del Brı o and Junquera 2002; Zutshi and Sohal 2004). E. g. LEDs.

• Case studies Technological niches and complexity as sources of lock-in • The fact that the success of technological niches is highly uncertain deters firms to adopt the technologies nested in those niches. • For example, eco-innovations such as the ones relying on integrated gasification combined cycles or on pressurised pulverised coal combustion hardly made it out of pilot plants or technology niches such as the refining industry. • The regime in place could not reduce the market uncertainties deterring investment in new technologies, and the existing pollution-intensive technological paradigm remained dominant (Rennings et al. 2013).

• Case studies Technological niches and complexity as sources of lock-in • In the case of power plants, it was the lack of radical alternatives which further strengthened the existing pollution-intensive trajectory. • Radical alternative eco-innovations were too weak to enter and change the dominant trajectory, and this very weakness enabled the further strengthening of the more polluting technological regime.

• Case studies Stakeholders can deter eco-innovations • Regulation can strengthen an existing, and possibly inefficient trajectory, by promoting incremental improvements within this trajectory. • Ex. Swiss bioenergy sector: energy policies (electricity feed-in schemes) stimulated investments in wood-to-energy technologies => lock-in to environmentally suboptimal technologies focused on power generation + weakened alternative approaches based on gas generation (Wirth and Markard 2011).

• Case studies Which social aspects can unlock eco-innovations? • Ex. biopolymer technology: centralised established decision processes are the main causes of lock-in (Chadha 2011). • Unlocking process: escape routes found by promoting network diversity (firm alliances, R&D consortia, partnerships, standard organisations, . . . ). Þ Firms reduced costs and risk collectively & enhanced technological predictability. Þ Fostered knowledge diversity: e. g. bootleg research (motivated employees organise part of the innovation process), technology monitoring (encourages to search outside the usual box), involve employees in firms’ road mapping.

• Case studies Stakeholders can support eco-innovations By promoting technological niches and diversity: • Ex. volatile organic compounds (paints, glues): end 1990 s: supportive legislation helped more environmentally friendly paints to increase their sales significantly after 30 y. on the market (Gelderman et al. 2007; Oltra and Saint Jean 2005). • Public S&T programmes = niche applications e. g. calculators and space travel helped improve solar cell efficiency => the technological trajectory of solar cells moved on from a technological niche to a market niche (van den Heuvel and van den Bergh 2009).

• Case studies Un-locking eco-innovation: The role of regulatory changes • Legislative and other regulatory pressures are even the main external forces leading to the adoption of eco-innovations (Nameroff et al. 2004). • Regulatory push is often the first opportunity for firms to start along an ecoinnovation path by complying with regulatory standards (van den Heuvel and van den Bergh 2009). • E. g. US large revisions of environmental law during the 1980 s and 1990 s were followed by a rapid growth in green chemistry patenting. “There is more evidence of regulations stimulating radical innovation than of market-based instruments doing so. ” (Kemp and Pontoglio 2011)

• Case studies Un-locking eco-innovation: The role of lead users • Change in consumer preferences can trigger eco-innovative changes. Ex. the trajectory of personal transportation technologies was disrupted by ecological concerns (Windrum et al. 2009) => awareness important. • Ecological concerns triggered the emergence of heterogeneous consumer preferences => development of cleaner product designs within the dominant technological paradigm => greener paradigm.

• Case studies Un-locking eco-innovation: The role of lead users Early adopters play a crucial role: attribute meaning to the product => drive eco-innovation by contributing to the emergence of a niche market. E. g. Canadian forestry sector (Sharma and Henriques 2005). Social process by which early adopters influence markets = social feedback loops (Dijk et al. 2011): 1) Interactive learning between suppliers and users, 2) Endogenous tastes among consumers, 3) Social learning (attribution of meaning).