Environment Representation and Hurricane Simulation for CWID 2009

Environment Representation and Hurricane Simulation for CWID 2009 Naim Alper Droplet Consulting for AER, Inc. John J. Holdzkom, Steven J. Lowe Modeling & Simulation Division AER, Inc. Stephen M. Webb ASNE/MSEA Liaison to JFCOM Dynamics Research Corporation Presented to the Euro SIW 14 July 2009 Istanbul, Turkey 1

Introduction n Modeling and Simulation Executive Agents (MSEA)’s Air and Space Natural Environment (ASNE): AF Weather Agency n Lead MSEA providing advocacy and USAF Investment n Ocean: Commander Navy MET OC Center (CNMOC) n Increasing interest and commitment due to FST / NCTE n Terrain: NGA n n Modeling and Simulation Coordination Office (MSCO) (formerly DMSO) Primary source of R&D funds n Primary advocacy, now via M&S Steering Committee n n Technology Investment Above parties have collaborated for over a decade to foster the development of critical enabling technology to reduce obstacles for the use of environment representations in all M&S Communities of Interest. n All technology is US Do. D owned and delivered open-source for maximum reuse n Core capabilities developed independent of specific data and model resources n 2

Outline n CWID overview n EDCSS overview n Hurricane simulation n Product generation and samples n CWID 09 event support n Summary 3

CWID 2009 n Coalition Warrior Interoperability Demonstration n Yearly event to evaluate technologies and capabilities for exchanging information among coalition partners, military services, government agencies, first responders and U. S. combatant commanders n Two scenarios provide demonstration backdrop n Homeland Security / Homeland Defense (HS/HD) n n Coalition Task Force (CTF) n n US NORTHCOM US JFCOM Coordinated with NATO and UK CWID 4

CWID “Big Picture” Technology Assessment - Procedures - Policies - Relationship Building NATO CWID Coalition USJFCOM HS/HD INDUSTRY USNORTHCOM UK CWID Scenario Vignettes 5

WEATHER SCENARIO – CTF n 15 -25 June, notional year 2012 n Theater includes SW Asia, and Horn of Africa n Benign “Typical June” Scenario requested 6

WEATHER SCENARIO – HS/HD - Flooding - Wildfires - Hurricane 7

Environmental Data Cube Support System (EDCSS) National Repositories • Do. D Ops/R&D Centers • NOAA Data Centers • Other Domain Co. E Project Definition Scenario Search Simulation Integrated Environment Representation Production Space Product Generation Atmos Ocean White Cell or Analyst Terrain Distribution Integration COP (C 4 ISR) 8

EDCSS Production Site AF Atmos Navy Ocean JMB Data Standards • Develop/maintain customer “product” requirements • Generate/Access Integrated Natural Environment Representation • “Outsource” product generation through well-defined service interfaces EDCSS Production Site COSINE Ad. Hoc Source s • Space Weather • Terrain Data • WRF Model Output Data Effects Imagery Messages Satellite Imagery Hypercube Product Generatio n Graphics (KML) METAR/TAF System Impacts Common Open Services for Integrated Natural Environment (COSINE) A SOA implementation providing …. • Resource Registration and Access • Multi-Resource Integration • Value-Added Data Processing • Decoupling of content from format 9

EDCSS Requirements Data Model Project ASWIM JET White Cell JSAF etc * Components When Where Who AWSIM * Products Data Generation Service IR Hypercube JLVC CSV Spatial Resolution/Projection Available Increments Effect AFWA GRIB Text Image METAR TAF Weather Graphics Synthetic Satellite 10

EDCSS Products for CWID n National Weather Service (NWS) Global Forecast System (GFS)-style weather forecast data (GRIB): 2 X/day with forecasts to 3 days n Simulated IR and VIS Satellite imagery (NITF, Geo. TIFF, PNG) n Simulated Radar imagery (NITF, Geo. TIFF, PNG) n Forecaster Graphics (KML, PNG) n Forecaster Text Messages (TAF): 4 X/day, 30 -hr forecasts n Simulated Observations (METAR): hourly for standard ICAO stations n AWSIM weather data (CSV) 11

EDCSS Support to CWID 2009 n Support two scenarios (CTF and HS/HD) n n Produce underlying environment representation n n Focus on HS/HD Hurricane scenario Specialized WRF modeling capability developed at AER Utilize EDC Production Site to generate all products n n USAF AWSIM air campaign simulation n n USAF Joint Environment Toolkit (JET) for C 2 integration Direct “ad-hoc” integration to other CWID trials via EDC Distributor web services Utilize EDC Distributor to provide access during event 12

WRF Modeling Capability n WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model is a community standard for numerical weather prediction n n AER maintains a WRF modeling capability for multiple government and commercial projects. n n Utilized by NOAA, AFWA, NCAR, research community Model deployed on 40 -node IBM cluster AER WRF capability utilized for production of environment representations for EDCSS Test and Evaluation (T&E) system also hosted at AER. n Model initialization based on NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis n Customized data assimilation to utilize synthetic observations to help “steer” scenario towards customer requirement. 13

Hurricane Simulation for CWID n Identified historical hurricane (Blanche, 1974) that matched desired track and intensity n Initialized WRF with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis fields n n Data assimilation via WRF’s 3 DVAR technique n n Repeated every 12 hours to keep storm along desired track Inserted synthetic observations of surface pressure along track to guide storm along desired path Result Accurately reproduced path and intensity of Blanche n Standard WRF output provides high-fidelity atmospheric representation from which all EDCSS products can be generated n 14

EDCSS WRF-Based Product Generation Base Resource WRF Virtual Resource WRF “Plus” COSINE Product Generation Services Products GRIB AFWA, JSAF, GFS EDCCOSINE CSV JLVC EDCMETAR Text ICAOService TAF EDC-TAF Text ICAOService EDC-NATIVE EDC-OWS Sat/Radar PNG, KML, TIF, NITF OWS Graphics PNG, KML EDCHypercube EDCPresent. Wx Hypercube PWx Graphics JPG

Sample EDCSS Products FTUS 80 KWBC 110300 RKJK TAF 110303 04006 KT 9999 SKC QNH 3005 INS BECMG 1107/1109 35007 KT 9999 SKC QNH 2988 INS BECMG 1113/1115 09010 KT 9999 SKC QNH 2991 INS BECMG 1119/1121 04009 KT 9999 SKC QNH 2986 INS BECMG 1201/1203 03011 G 25 KT 9999 SCT 270 QNH 2969 INS BECMG 1207/1209 33017 G 37 KT 9999 SKC QNH 2967 INS METAR RCMQ 110300 Z 31016 KT 10 SM BKN 140 30/25 Q 0970 Consistent Integrated Representation EDCSS 16

Exercise Support Site 17

EDCSS Deployment in CWID 2009 n EDC Distributor installed on each network (HS/HD and CTF) n Event Support Site hosted (HTML access) n Web Services access to all requested products n Located in US JFCOM Joint System Integration Command (JSIC) n Product suites hosted: n n n HS/HD: 750 MB CTF: 3 GB Results n AFWA JET received hourly products via automated web service requests n ASWIM downloaded and played CSV weather files n Additional CWID trials downloaded directly from EDCSS n EDCSS Products displayed on C 2 systems throughout event providing realistic environmental context for CWID demonstrations. 18

Summary n EDCSS provided multiple correlated views of the environment representation to all CWID participants n Simultaneous support of two scenarios n Support to both human and machine consumers n Leveraged WRF model capability to generate desired hurricane scenario in high fidelity n EDC Distributor effectively managed access requirements for all users without issue. 19