Energy Security in an Uncertain World Andy Boston Technical Head, Business Modelling September 2011
The Trilemma Carbon There has, rightly, been a strong focus on reducing CO 2 emissions Sustainable Cost Security of Supply Jan 09 Business Modelling Slide 2
The Trilemma Carbon Sustainable Cost But security is put at risk by uncertainties at different timescales Security of Supply Jan 09 Business Modelling Slide 3
Timescales of Threats to Security 1 decade 1 year 1 month Existing demand growth New loads Climate Change Aging assets HV Grid constraints LV Grid constraints 1 day 1 hour Demand 1 minute 1 second TV pick-up Weather forecast errors Network Unexpected circuit loss Circuit outages Generation Insufficient planned build Enforced closures Delays to new build Long term breakdown Wind forecast errors Insufficient flexible dependable plant Short term breakdown Reduced inertia Unexpected unit trip Fuel Supply Availability Security of Supply Jan 09 Business Modelling Slide 4
Timescales of Mitigation Measures 1 decade 1 year 1 month 1 day 1 hour 1 minute Automatic disconnection DS Frequency response Demand Energy efficiency Demand Side management Green house gas emission reductions 1 second Voltage reductions Network Grid strengthening Smart Grids Buffer batteries Constrain Generation Legislation New generation Nuclear CCGT Coal OCGT Price Signals Grid warning: Return NISMs mothballed New storage Design improvements Derogations Opt-outs plant to service Fuel diversity & renewables Reserve Balancing mechanism Security of Supply Jan 09 Generator Frequency response Business Modelling Slide 5
Uncertainty Timescale: seconds Inertia is being removed from the system: Conventional generation has higher inertia than wind Unit size could increase: EPR at 1600 MW up from Sizewell at 1100 MW. Need for greater inertia or fast acting response TV pickup Generator trip Security of Supply Jan 09 Business Modelling Slide 6
Uncertainty Timescale: minutes to hours Output can vary by up to 6% capacity in 10 minutes So 30 GW wind will need +/-2 GW capacity to actively balance in that timescale Simulated UK wind output over 1 day at 10 minute resolution Standard deviation of 10 minute changes = 2. 5% Security of Supply Jan 09 Business Modelling Slide 7
Uncertainty Timescale: hours and days There’s a need for very flexible generation to meet sharp peaks There are periods of over generation where storage can avoid spill Tidal (SB) Flexible generation Wind Nuclear Spill Security of Supply Jan 09 Business Modelling Slide 8
Uncertainty Timescale: days and weeks 8 TWh gap Five day period with very little wind. Peak demand for 2006 occurs in middle of this period when output of combined portfolio was 6% of capacity. Security of Supply Jan 09 Business Modelling Slide 9
Uncertainty Timescale: Weeks and months Weather events last a few days. UK wind output varies from <10% to >80% capacity on that timescale. Note also weekend effect on demand seasonal variation across the year Daily energy (GWh) Renewables Firm backup Security of Supply Jan 09 Business Modelling Slide 10
Uncertainty Timescale: Years 10 years Policy and markets influence generation mix over many years Bio 10 years Marine CCS Nuclear Oil 20 years Coal 20 years Wind Gas Evolution to diverse energy supply with many technologies Security of Supply Jan 09 Business Modelling Slide 11
Summary There are uncertainties on all timescales from < 1 second to > 4 decades Utilities have to: Understand the threats Undertake appropriate mitigation Consider the entire supply chain from energy source through conversion and transmission to utilisation And have to understand the effects of mitigation at one timescale may impact security of supply negatively at another timescale. So the solutions are complex and diverse Uncertainty / MEGS Sep 11 Business Modelling Slide 12
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