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Energy Sector Stock Presentation Dan Geisler Olga Boder(Firdman) Fall 2009 Energy Sector Stock Presentation Dan Geisler Olga Boder(Firdman) Fall 2009

Agenda • S&P 500 Energy Sector • SIM energy holdings • Sector/industry outlook • Agenda • S&P 500 Energy Sector • SIM energy holdings • Sector/industry outlook • Valuation • Recommendation – – – % of index top market cap top performers S&P 500 Energy Sector Top Movers industries within sector – what companies and industries – percent of portfolio – performance – Oil supply/demand – Oil price forecast – Regression against stocks/sector – Industries in SIM – sector as a whole – potential attractive industries

S&P Sector Breakdown S&P Sector Breakdown

S&P 500 Top Market Cap No Stock % Weight in the Index 1 Exxon. S&P 500 Top Market Cap No Stock % Weight in the Index 1 Exxon. Mobil 3. 77 2 Microsoft 2. 36 6. 13 3 Procter & Gamble 1. 86 7. 99 4 Apple 1. 85 9. 84 5 JPMorgan Chase 1. 80 11. 64 6 Johnson & Johnson 1. 78 13. 42 7 IBM 1. 73 15. 15 8 Chevron 1. 68 16. 84 9 General Electric 1. 66 18. 50 10 AT&T 1. 66 20. 16 Um %

S&P 500 Top Performers Ticker Name Sector YTD Return % S&P 500 Best Returns S&P 500 Top Performers Ticker Name Sector YTD Return % S&P 500 Best Returns YTD 2009 (NYSE: THC) TENET HEALTHCARE CORP Health 373. 04% (NYSE: XL) XL CAPITAL LTD Financials 363. 78% (NYSE: GNW) GENWORTH FINANCIAL INC A Financials 319. 44% (NYSE: F) FORD MOTOR CO Consumer Durable 218. 34% (NYSE: WDC) WESTERN DIGITAL CORP Technology 207. 34% (NYSE: MU) MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC Technology 206. 82% (NASDAQ: WFMI) WHOLE FOODS MARKET INC Consumer Services 204. 77% (NASDAQ: EXPE) EXPEDIA INC Transportation 184. 83% (NYSE: FCX) FREEPORT-MCMORAN C & G Basic Material 172. 87% (NYSE: AMD) ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES Technology 169. 91%

Energy and S&P 500 Energy and S&P 500

S&P 500 Energy Sector • • • As of November 2 2009 Close : S&P 500 Energy Sector • • • As of November 2 2009 Close : 424. 18 Net Change: 1. 96 % Change: 0. 46 Year to_Date: 9. 79

Top Movers Gainers (% price change) Last Trade Change Mkt Cap Encore Acquisition Co. Top Movers Gainers (% price change) Last Trade Change Mkt Cap Encore Acquisition Co. EAC 44. 67 +7. 60 (20. 50%) 2. 36 B Harvest Natural Resources HNR 5. 73 +0. 24 (4. 37%) 190. 07 M Stone Energy Corporation SGY 15. 95 +0. 62 (4. 04%) 766. 14 M Comstock Resources, Inc. CRK 42. 72 +1. 63 (3. 97%) 1. 99 B Intl. Coal Group, Inc. ICO 4. 25 +0. 16 (3. 91%) 655. 15 M

Top Movers Losers (% price change) Last Trade Change Mkt Cap Denbury Resources Inc. Top Movers Losers (% price change) Last Trade Change Mkt Cap Denbury Resources Inc. DNR 13. 09 -1. 51 (-10. 34%) 3. 27 B Global Partners LP GLP 22. 2 -2. 01 (-8. 31%) 295. 28 M Rosetta Resources Inc. ROSE 12. 65 -0. 88 (-6. 50%) 662. 30 M Bronco Drilling Co. , Inc. BRNC 5. 91 -0. 41 (-6. 49%) 160. 86 M Hercules Offshore, Inc. HERO 4. 8 -0. 33 (-6. 43%) 544. 00 M

Top Movers Most Actives (dollar volume) Last Trade Change Mkt Cap Exxon Mobil Corporation Top Movers Most Actives (dollar volume) Last Trade Change Mkt Cap Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM 72. 15 +0. 48 (0. 67%) 342. 50 B Chevron Corporation CVX 76. 64 +0. 10 (0. 13%) 153. 70 B Petroleo Brasileiro SA PBR 46. 71 +0. 49 (1. 06%) 204. 92 B Occidental Petroleum Corp OXY 76. 82 +0. 94 (1. 24%) 62. 28 B Conoco. Phillips COP 49. 98 -0. 20 (-0. 40%) 74. 12 B

S& P 500 Industries Within Energy Sector % of Index 500 or Value Sector S& P 500 Industries Within Energy Sector % of Index 500 or Value Sector 1 Wk. YTD 2008 5 -Yr CAGR 89. 52 1. 93% 3. 30% 85. 20% -64. 20% N/A N/A Integrated Oil & Gas 424. 69 59. 02% 5. 10% 0. 30% -23. 50% 8. 80% 0. 7 20. 7 Oil & Gas Drilling Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation 531. 17 1. 96% 5. 10% 75. 00% -62. 00% 10. 50% 1. 3 33. 8 445. 8 14. 61% 7. 80% 67. 30% -59. 50% 11. 70% 1. 4 35. 3 482. 39 18. 32% 3. 50% 42. 10% -35. 00% 18. 30% 1. 1 31 189. 55 1. 43% 4. 30% -10. 70% -64. 70% -4. 80% 1. 2 39 107. 94 2. 73% 3. 90% 34. 90% -51. 60% N/A N/A Energy Sector 446. 72 12. 35% 3. 80% 15. 60% -35. 90% 9. 90% 0. 9 23. 3 Coal & Consumable Fuels Price Changes (%) 5 -Year Beta Std. Dev.

SIM and S&P 500 SIM and S&P 500

SIM Companies and Industries Quantity Security Ticker Industry 14, 700 BP plc. - ADR SIM Companies and Industries Quantity Security Ticker Industry 14, 700 BP plc. - ADR BP Major Integrated Oil & Gas 12, 300 Conoco. Phillips Co. COP Major Integrated Oil & Gas 10, 200 Transocean Ltd. RIG Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration

SIM Percent of Portfolio SIM Percent of Portfolio

Industry • Current Prices: – Oil: $79. 50 – BP: $57. 55 – COP: Industry • Current Prices: – Oil: $79. 50 – BP: $57. 55 – COP: $50. 75 – RIG: $85. 91

$160 West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Spot Price TRANSOCEAN (RIG) BP ADR (BP) CONOCOPHILLIPS $160 West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Spot Price TRANSOCEAN (RIG) BP ADR (BP) CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) ENERGY (SPENS) 700 650 $140 600 $120 550 500 $100 450 $80 400 350 $60 300 $40 250 $20 08/31/2004 200 08/31/2005 08/31/2006 08/31/2007 08/31/2008 08/31/2009

$150 West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price/Barrel Worldwide Crude Oil Production (Millions of Barrels/Day) $150 West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price/Barrel Worldwide Crude Oil Production (Millions of Barrels/Day) 75 $100 73 $75 72 $50 71 $25 08/31/2004 08/31/2005 08/31/2006 08/31/2007 08/31/2008 70 08/31/2009 Millions of Barrels/Day 74 Dollars/Barrel $125

$100. 00 Futures Chain (Source: Finance. yahoo. com, 10/30/2009) $95. 00 $90. 00 $85. $100. 00 Futures Chain (Source: Finance. yahoo. com, 10/30/2009) $95. 00 $90. 00 $85. 00 $80. 00 $75. 00 10/30/2009 10/30/2010 10/30/2011 10/29/2012 10/30/2013 10/30/2014 10/30/2015 10/29/2016 10/30/2017

Crude Oil vs. Sector Performance Crude Oil vs. Sector Performance

Regression Analysis Regression Analysis

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Spot Price TRANSOCEAN (RIG) BP ADR (BP) CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Spot Price TRANSOCEAN (RIG) BP ADR (BP) CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) RIG Reg BP Reg COP Reg ENERGY (SPENS) Energy Reg $160 700 650 $140 600 $120 550 500 $100 450 $80 400 350 $60 300 $40 250 $20 08/31/2004 200 08/31/2006 08/31/2008 08/31/2010 08/31/2012 08/31/2014 08/31/2016

Valuation Ratios COP Absolute P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF High 13. 6 Valuation Ratios COP Absolute P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF High 13. 6 11. 3 2. 3 0. 9 8. 2 Low 3. 5 5. 3 0. 8 0. 2 2. 3 Median 7. 6 8. 0 1. 5 0. 6 5. 2 Current 13. 6 8. 9 1. 3 0. 6 5. 1 Overvalued by >20% Inline within 20% Undervalued by >20% BP Absolute P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF High 16. 0 13. 8 3. 3 1. 1 9. 7 Low 4. 5 4. 7 1. 4 0. 3 3. 3 Median 10. 7 10. 3 2. 6 0. 8 7. 6 Current 13. 4 10. 5 1. 8 0. 8 7. 1 Overvalued by >20% Inline within 20% Undervalued by >20% RIG Absolute P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF High 160. 8 49. 0 4. 7 9. 4 33. 8 Low 3. 4 3. 1 0. 9 1. 3 2. 8 Median 25. 2 12. 1 2. 8 6. 8 18. 4 Current 6. 4 8. 2 1. 5 2. 2 5. 1 Overvalued by >20% Inline within 20% Undervalued by >20%

Valuation Ratios (cont. ) Energy Absolute High Low Median Current P/Trailing E 14. 9 Valuation Ratios (cont. ) Energy Absolute High Low Median Current P/Trailing E 14. 9 6. 1 11. 7 12. 1 P/Forward E 16. 2 7. 8 11. 5 15. 4 P/B 3. 8 1. 4 3. 0 2. 1 Overvalued by >20% P/S 1. 4 0. 5 1. 1 1. 0 Inline within 20% P/CF 9. 4 4. 1 7. 3 5. 4 Undervalued by >20% High Low Median Current P/Trailing E 0. 88 0. 53 0. 70 0. 68 P/Forward E 1. 20 0. 57 0. 74 0. 91 P/B 1. 40 0. 80 1. 10 1. 00 Overvalued by >10% P/S 1. 00 0. 60 0. 80 0. 9 Inline within 10% P/CF 0. 90 0. 50 0. 70 0. 50 Undervalued by >10% Oil Drilling Relative to S&P 500 High Low Median Current P/Trailing E 3. 70 0. 28 0. 98 0. 41 P/Forward E 2. 00 0. 28 0. 68 0. 79 P/B 1. 70 0. 50 1. 00 0. 80 Overvalued by >10% P/S 4. 30 1. 40 2. 90 1. 80 Inline within 10% P/CF 1. 80 0. 40 1. 00 0. 50 Undervalued by >10% Energy Relative to S&P 500

Valuation Ratios (cont. ) Oil Integrated Relative to S&P 500 High Low Median Current Valuation Ratios (cont. ) Oil Integrated Relative to S&P 500 High Low Median Current P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF 0. 79 1. 20 1. 40 0. 80 0. 51 0. 46 0. 90 0. 50 0. 61 0. 68 1. 00 0. 60 0. 64 0. 78 1. 00 0. 80 0. 50 Oil Exploration Relative to S&P 500 High Low Median Current P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF 1. 10 1. 90 1. 30 3. 50 0. 80 0. 55 0. 51 0. 70 1. 50 0. 40 0. 73 0. 80 2. 20 0. 60 1. 00 1. 20 0. 80 2. 50 0. 50 Oil Equipment Relative to S&P 500 High Low Median Current P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF 1. 90 1. 70 2. 80 1. 60 0. 58 0. 61 1. 00 1. 20 0. 70 1. 30 1. 20 2. 00 1. 80 1. 30 0. 77 1. 40 1. 30 1. 60 0. 80 Overvalued by >10% Inline within 10% Undervalued by >10%

Valuation Ratios (cont. ) Oil Refining Relative to S&P 500 High Low Median Current Valuation Ratios (cont. ) Oil Refining Relative to S&P 500 High Low Median Current P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF 1. 00 3. 90 1. 30 0. 50 0. 70 0. 23 0. 39 0. 30 0. 10 0. 20 0. 55 0. 80 0. 20 0. 50 0. 31 3. 90 0. 30 0. 10 0. 30 Coal Relative to S&P 500 High Low Median Current P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF 23. 30 2. 10 1. 90 4. 00 2. 10 0. 55 0. 39 0. 70 0. 90 0. 50 1. 40 0. 95 1. 10 1. 30 0. 74 1. 20 1. 90 1. 40 0. 80 Overvalued by >10% Inline within 10% Undervalued by >10% Price/Oil Energy Sector BP (BP) Conoco. Phillips (COP) Transocean (RIG) High 10. 1 1. 3 1. 4 1. 6 Low 4. 1 0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 Median 6. 3 1. 1 1. 0 1. 2 Current 5. 9 0. 8 0. 7 1. 2 Overvalued by >20% Inline within 20% Undervalued by >20% Overvalued by >10% Inline within 10% Undervalued by >10%

Recommendation • Hold the overall % for the sector. • Hold Transocean Ltd. since Recommendation • Hold the overall % for the sector. • Hold Transocean Ltd. since it’s a buy right now. • Reduce the % of BP plc. – ADR and Conoco. Phillips Co. • Diversify our energy sector by purchasing a stock with an exposure to a non-oil energy type, like natural gas companies. • Possible purchases: Chesapeake Energy the largest producers of natural gas in the nation.

Questions? Questions?