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Energy Environment Economy: Motivation for Energy Efficient Manufacturing Kelly Kissock Ph. D. , P. Energy Environment Economy: Motivation for Energy Efficient Manufacturing Kelly Kissock Ph. D. , P. E. Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Renewable and Clean Energy Program University of Dayton, Ohio

What on Earth Are These? World Energy Use World Population World Gross Income What on Earth Are These? World Energy Use World Population World Gross Income

Converting Heat to Work Since pre-history we knew how to: Work Heat Industrial Revolution Converting Heat to Work Since pre-history we knew how to: Work Heat Industrial Revolution to: Work Heat

Newcomen’s Steam Engine ~1712 Newcomen’s Steam Engine ~1712

Revolutionary Change Transforms n n n Economy: textile production increases 150 fold and prices Revolutionary Change Transforms n n n Economy: textile production increases 150 fold and prices drop 90% Place: cities grow from 5% to 50% Family: parents leave home to work Geography: steam ship and railroad Technology Population

Economic Explosion n Pre-industrial revolution per capita annual income: $600 Industrial revolution US/Europe income Economic Explosion n Pre-industrial revolution per capita annual income: $600 Industrial revolution US/Europe income $600 to $18, 000 Increases 30 x!

Energy Revolution Creates Modern World Energy Revolution Creates Modern World

Single Most Important Event in Human History Single Most Important Event in Human History

The Nature of Wealth n n n James Watt observed that a horse pulling The Nature of Wealth n n n James Watt observed that a horse pulling 180 pounds of force made 144 trips around the circle in an hour, at an average speed of 181 feet per minute = 33, 000 ft. lbs. per minute = one “horsepower”. Generating 1 hp required: n 1, 500 lb horse n 6 ft tall n costs $5, 000 /yr to board Today, generating 1 -hp requires: n 32 lb motor (30 x less) n 4 x 6 inches (12 x less) n costs $250 /year to power (20 x less)

We’ve Come a Long Way… n n n n Newcomen’s steam engine: 0. 5% We’ve Come a Long Way… n n n n Newcomen’s steam engine: 0. 5% Watt’s steam engine: 1% Gasoline engines: 30% Coal Rankine cycles: 35% Turbines: 40% Diesel engines: 50% Combined-cycle turbine/Rankine engines: 60%

But Energy Conversion Largely Unchanged… 1. Use hydrocarbon fossil fuels 2. Employ combustion to But Energy Conversion Largely Unchanged… 1. Use hydrocarbon fossil fuels 2. Employ combustion to release heat CH 4+2(O 2 + 3. 76 N 2)=CO 2+2 H 20+(NOx+SOx+…) 3. Convert heat to work via thermal expansion

84% Of World Energy From Fossil Fuels n n In U. S. 86% from 84% Of World Energy From Fossil Fuels n n In U. S. 86% from non-renewable fossil fuels Source: U. S. D. O. E. Annual Energy Review 2005

Resource Constraints M. King Hubbert Resource Constraints M. King Hubbert

Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction of US Oil Peak Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction of US Oil Peak

Actual U. S. Oil Production (Peaks in 1972) Source: www. ab 3 energy. com/hubbert. Actual U. S. Oil Production (Peaks in 1972) Source: www. ab 3 energy. com/hubbert. html

Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction of World Oil Peak Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction of World Oil Peak

Cambell’s World Oil Peak Cambell’s World Oil Peak

ASPO World Oil Peak ASPO World Oil Peak

EIA’s World Oil Peak EIA’s World Oil Peak

World Oil Near Peak Production Peak production = 2015 Based on 1, 800 BB World Oil Near Peak Production Peak production = 2015 Based on 1, 800 BB “World Oil Resources’, WRI 1994

World Natural Gas Near Peak Production Peak production = 2018 Based on 6, 044 World Natural Gas Near Peak Production Peak production = 2018 Based on 6, 044 TCF ‘World Dry Natural Gas Reserves’, Oil and Gas Journal, IEA 2004

World Coal Peak Production 2050? Peak production = 2060 Based on 997, 506 MT World Coal Peak Production 2050? Peak production = 2060 Based on 997, 506 MT ‘World Estimated Recoverable Coal’, IEA 2004

Consequences of Peak Fuel • Rising demand falling supply rapidly increases fuel prices • Consequences of Peak Fuel • Rising demand falling supply rapidly increases fuel prices • Rising fuel prices reduce expendable income and cause recessions • Rising fuel prices drain fuel importing economies and increase trade deficits • Competition for dwindling supply increase national security risks • Rising fuel prices support undemocratic regimes (Russia, Middle East, Venezuela, etc. )

Environmental Perspective “Using energy in today’s ways leads to more environmental damage than any Environmental Perspective “Using energy in today’s ways leads to more environmental damage than any other peaceful human activity. ” The Economist, 1990.

95% Of Local/Regional Air Pollution from Fossil Fuels 95% Of Local/Regional Air Pollution from Fossil Fuels

Global CO 2 Concentration • Keeling Curve: Mauna Loa, Hawaii • 2005 Concentration: ~380 Global CO 2 Concentration • Keeling Curve: Mauna Loa, Hawaii • 2005 Concentration: ~380 ppm

Coincident Global Warming Hansen, J. , “Is There Still Time to Avoid Dangerous Anthropogenic Coincident Global Warming Hansen, J. , “Is There Still Time to Avoid Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with Global Climate? ”, American Geophysical Union, 2005.

Molecules with Odd Number Atoms (CO 2 CH 4) Trap Heat “Changing Climate”, Stephen Molecules with Odd Number Atoms (CO 2 CH 4) Trap Heat “Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989

Historical Temperature CO 2 Correlation “Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989 Historical Temperature CO 2 Correlation “Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989

Greenhouse Gas Trends Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001, “Summary for Policymakers” Greenhouse Gas Trends Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001, “Summary for Policymakers”

Result: Earth Quickly Warming Hansen et al. , Journal Geophysical Research Result: Earth Quickly Warming Hansen et al. , Journal Geophysical Research

Warming Fastest at Pole “Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989 Warming Fastest at Pole “Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989

Melting Polar & Greenland Ice Caps Melting Polar & Greenland Ice Caps

And … n n n Rising sea level and low-level flooding Drought Severe weather And … n n n Rising sea level and low-level flooding Drought Severe weather Mass extinctions (30% of species lose range) Accelerating non-linear irreversible process n n Methane release from thawing “perma-frost” Lower albedo from decreasing ice cover…

Cincinnati Days > 90 F 18 (Current) to 45 (Low Emissions) or 85 (High Cincinnati Days > 90 F 18 (Current) to 45 (Low Emissions) or 85 (High Emissions ) Source: Confronting Climate Change in the U. S. Midwest: Ohio, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009

Spring Rainfall Increases 30% (High Emission) Source: Confronting Climate Change in the U. S. Spring Rainfall Increases 30% (High Emission) Source: Confronting Climate Change in the U. S. Midwest: Ohio, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009

Debate? n Consensus view from: n n Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Every Debate? n Consensus view from: n n Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Every U. S. scientific body (NAS, AMS, AGU, AAAS) Every G 8 National Academy of Science’ Literature review (Oreskes, Science, Vol. 306, 2004): n n n All scientific peer-reviewed journals from 1993 – 2004 with key words “climate change”. Found 983 papers NONE disagreed with consensus position

“The need for urgent action to address climate change is now indisputable. ” U. “The need for urgent action to address climate change is now indisputable. ” U. S. National Academy of Sciences and counterpart academies from 12 other nations. 2009

Linear Model of Production Fossil Fuel Resources Atmosphere Fossil Fuel Energy CO 2 & Linear Model of Production Fossil Fuel Resources Atmosphere Fossil Fuel Energy CO 2 & Pollution Energy Out Economy Running Out of Energy Resources While Atmosphere Filling Up

Ecological Model of Production Biological Technical Ecological Model of Production Biological Technical

State Renewable Electricity Standards 29 States and District of Columbia Ohio: 12. 5% of State Renewable Electricity Standards 29 States and District of Columbia Ohio: 12. 5% of electricity from renewable energy by 2025 Mandatory Voluntary Source: Securing the Transition to a Clean and Sustainable Energy Economy, Deyette, J. , Union Concerned Scientists, 2011

US CO 2 Stabilization Scenario (ASES) Kutscher, C. , “Tackling Climate Change in the US CO 2 Stabilization Scenario (ASES) Kutscher, C. , “Tackling Climate Change in the US”, Solar Today, March, 2007

Energy Efficiency Lowest Cost Source of “New Power” Source: A Risky Proposition, Union of Energy Efficiency Lowest Cost Source of “New Power” Source: A Risky Proposition, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2011

Reduce U. S. CO 2 by 20% at Negative Cost (i. e. while making Reduce U. S. CO 2 by 20% at Negative Cost (i. e. while making money) Source: Reducing U. S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much at What Cost? ”, Mc. Kinsey and Company, December 2007

Energy Efficiency in the U. S. Source: Laitner, S. , American Council for an Energy Efficiency in the U. S. Source: Laitner, S. , American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy, Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, U. S. Congress, June 25, 2008

Energy Efficiency in California Source: Rosenthal, A. California Energy Commission, 2006 Energy Efficiency in California Source: Rosenthal, A. California Energy Commission, 2006

Energy Efficiency in Ohio n n 22% of electricity from efficiency savings by 2025 Energy Efficiency in Ohio n n 22% of electricity from efficiency savings by 2025 (AEP at http: //gridsmartohio. com/) All new schools must be LEED Silver The Ohio Department of Development: grants and loans (http: //development. ohio. gov/Energy/Incentives/Grant s. Loans. htm) U. S. Department of Energy: no-cost industrial energy assessments (http: //academic. udayton. edu/kissock/http/IAC/default. htm)

International Standards ISO Standards 9001 Quality n 14001 Environment n 50001 Energy n n International Standards ISO Standards 9001 Quality n 14001 Environment n 50001 Energy n n Requires energy management personnel and organizations within a company to determine baseline energy use, determine energy efficiency targets, identify and implement energy efficiency opportunities, measure effectiveness of energy efficiency improvements.

Energy Engineering Courses at UD n n n n MEE 420/569: Energy Efficient Buildings Energy Engineering Courses at UD n n n n MEE 420/569: Energy Efficient Buildings MEE 478/578: Energy Efficient Manufacturing MEE 590: Geothermal Energy Sources MEE 590: Wind Energy Systems MEE 590: Solar Energy Engineering MEE 524: Electrochemical Power MEE 507: Advanced Energy Materials MEE 590: Thermal System Analysis MEE 471/571: Design of Thermal Systems MEE 473/573: Renewable Energy Systems MEE 472: Design for Environment MEE 499/599: Environmental Sustainability MEE 590: Building Energy Informatics

Remarkably n Energy Efficiency Increases business competitiveness n Increase resource availability n Increases environmental Remarkably n Energy Efficiency Increases business competitiveness n Increase resource availability n Increases environmental health n n Energy Efficiency is THE PATH TO THE NEW ENERGY EFFICIENT ECONOMY

Thank you! Thank you!

“Europe’s Plan For a Low-Carbon Economy” Over the coming decade raising the EU’s climate “Europe’s Plan For a Low-Carbon Economy” Over the coming decade raising the EU’s climate target from 20% to 30% can foster the following outcomes by 2020: n n Increase the growth rate up to 0. 6% per year Create up to 6 million additional jobs Europe-wide Boost European investments from 18% to up to 22% of GDP Increase GDP by up to 6% Source: “A New Growth Path for Europe: Generating Prosperity and Jobs in the Low-Carbon Economy”, European Climate Forum e. V. , Potsdam, Germany, 2011

US CO 2 Stabilization Scenario (NRDC) Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006 US CO 2 Stabilization Scenario (NRDC) Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006

Energy Efficiency in California Source: Rosenfeld, A. and Mc. Auliffe, P. , “Opportunities in Energy Efficiency in California Source: Rosenfeld, A. and Mc. Auliffe, P. , “Opportunities in the Building Sector: Managing Climate Change”, International Seminar on Planetary Emergencies, Erice, Sicily” August 2007

Rising Sea Level & Low Elevation Flooding Rising Sea Level & Low Elevation Flooding

Government Programs n U. S. Department of Energy n Energy audits n n Energy Government Programs n U. S. Department of Energy n Energy audits n n Energy system software and best practice case studies U. S. Environmental Protection Agency n n Whole plant energy audits by universities for mid-sized manufacturers Steam, process heating, compressed air and pump energy audits for large manufactures E 3 energy, waste and productivity audits Ohio utilities must improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 n DPL, Duke, AEP offer rebates on energy efficient equipment and retrofits.