Emerging challenges of environmental and climate change in

Emerging challenges of environmental and climate change in Europe Graeme I Pearman January 17, 2013 Director, Graeme Pearman Consulting Pty Ltd Adjunct Senior Res. Fellow, Monash University Europe in the 21 st Century Board, The Climate Institute

Emerging challenges of environmental and climate change in Europe • • January 17, 2013 The finite world we live in The EU circumstance Lessons for sustainable strategies Living with myths & prejudices Europe in the 21 st Century

Beyond growth: Why our economy is killing the planet New Scientist Oct 18, 2008 Drivers – Population – GDP – Foreign investment Demand – Motor vehicles – Paper consumption – Fisheries exploitation – Water use Impacts – CO 2 concentration – Northern hemisphere temperature – Ozone depletion – Species extinction – Loss of tropical rainforest and woodland 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Global average temperature is rising January 17, 2013 Europe in the 21 st Century

Global Average Sea-level Rise Based on Church and White (2011) January 17, 2013 Europe in the 21 st Century

Arctic sea ice extent (Area of ocean with at least 15% sea ice)

A safe operating space for humanity Current position January 17, 2013 Safe operating space Europe in the 21 st Century Rockström et al. (2009) Nature 461, Sept.

Energy consumption compared with net primary production of vegetation New Guinea Brazil Australia New Zealand Sweden World US China UK Japan R Korea Singapore 10 1000 10, 000 100, 000 Energy consumption as a percentage of net primary production January 17, 2013 Europe in the 21 st Century Unpublished data of Pearman (2013) not for circulation

Emerging challenges of environmental and climate change in Europe • • January 17, 2013 The finite world we live in The EU circumstance Lessons for sustainable strategies Living with myths & prejudices Europe in the 21 st Century

Precipitation changes Increases this century Decreases this century IPCC Working Group I, Chapter 11, (2007) January 17, 2013 Europe in the 21 st Century

Best estimate of rainfall changes by 2100 January 17, 2013 Europe in the 21 st Century

Estimate of runoff changes by 2020 & 2070 January 17, 2013 Europe in the 21 st Century http: //www. ipcc. ch/graphics /ar 4 -wg 2/jpg/fig-12 -1. jpg

January 17, 2013 Europe in the 21 st Century http: //www. ipcc. ch/graphics /ar 4 -wg 2/jpg/fig-12 -3. jpg

People and the Planet, Royal Society, April 2012 1. International community must bring 1. 3 billion people living on less than $1. 25 per day out of absolute poverty 2. Most developed & the emerging economies must stabilise & then reduce material consumption levels 3. Reproductive health & voluntary family planning programmes urgently require political leadership & financial commitment 4. Population & the environment should not be considered as two separate issues 5. Governments should realise the potential of urbanisation to reduce material consumption & environmental impact through efficiency measures January 17, 2013 Europe in the 21 st Century

People and the Planet, Royal Society April 2012 6. Financial & non-financial barriers must be overcome to achieve high-quality primary & secondary education for all the world’s young, ensuring equal opportunities for girls & boys 7. Natural & social scientists need to increase research efforts on the interactions between consumption, demographic change & environmental impact 8. National Governments should accelerate the development of comprehensive wealth measures 9. Collaboration between National Governments is needed to develop socio-economic systems & institutions that are not dependent on continued material consumption growth January 17, 2013 Europe in the 21 st Century

January 17, 2013 Europe in the 21 st Century

Emerging challenges of environmental and climate change in Europe • • January 17, 2013 The finite world we live in The EU circumstance Lessons for sustainable strategies Living with myths & prejudices Europe in the 21 st Century

Sustainability: • The vision: a future worth choosing – A sustainable planet, just society, growing economy • The state of sustainable development – Not a destination, but a dynamic process of adaptation, learning and action – Recognizing, understanding and acting on interconnections between the economy, society and the natural environment Resilient People, Resilient Planet: A future worth choosing The report of the United Nations Secretary-General’s High-level Panel on Global Sustainability January 17, 2013 Europe in the 21 st Century

The issue of sustainability • Can be a bit scary and daunting because: – Its complex, uncertain & all embracing – But most of all because it challenges the way we are, our expectations, our infrastructure & our investments • But change can be the opportunity to lead the way, build win-win outcomes, contribute to the world we wish to leave for our children & grandchildren January 17, 2013 Europe in the 21 st Century

The climate change issue GDP Emissions Choice of technology Human health R ai gr io nf ic di al ul ve l tu rs re it y Energy demand Climate change ea S el v le A Efficiency Climate system impacts Af fl Po pu ue la nc tio e n Aspirations B Energy supply/demand Perceptions, conscious or unconscious of: • Wellbeing • Success Culture, 2011 July 28, education, January 17, 2013 advertising, promotions • Vested interests • Natural resources • Ignorance • Market failure Europe in the 21 st Century • Risk assessment • Beliefs • Ignorance • Sectoral interests Pearman (2012): Aust. J. Environ. Managment

Characteristics of promising responses for addressing sustainability include (1): 1. Strategic thinking: – Not stuck with the notion that the way it has been is the way of the future; grasping the opportunities this creates 2. Leadership: – There will be risks and opportunities; risk has to be managed; being an early starter has advantages 3. Flexibility: – Uncertainty is a normal state to be managed; manage the risks through ongoing learning, diversity & nimbleness January 17, 2013 Europe in the 21 st Century

Characteristics of promising responses for addressing sustainability include (2): 3. Markets: – Use them but accept that there are externalities; balance markets approaches with non-market tools 4. Reflection: – Consider how our expectations, culture, history, education, market economy, advertising, etc. impact on our behaviour/institutions. Much of this is subconscious & changeable; by bringing motivations to the surface we can challenge their validity 5. Holism: – Rarely are solutions without the potential for cobenefits or dis-benefits. Be wary of sectoralism & maximise value by seeking the former January 17, 2013 Europe in the 21 st Century

Emissions peak: 2015 Global mean temperature change (o. C) Temperatures peak: ~2065 3 EU target above which change is considered “dangerous” 2 Uncertainty range: ▬ 10 th percentile ▬ 50 th percentile ▬ 90 th percentile 1 2000 January 17, 2013 2100 2200 2300 Europe in the 21 st Century 2400 Parry et al. (2009). Overshoot, adapt and recover. Nature 458, 1102 -1103

Fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions (Pg C yr-1) 10 Global financial crisis 100 8 Asian financial crisis Collapse of the FSU 6 150 US savings & loans crisis Oil crisis 200 4 1970 January 17, 2013 1980 1990 2000 2010 Carbon intensity of the economy (g C per $US) Rapid growth in CO 2 emissions after the 2008– 2009 global financial crisis Europe in the 21 st Century Peters et al. (2011): Nature Climate Change: (2011) DOI: doi: 10. 1038/nclimate 1332

Member State EU Group of 15 countries Kyoto Target % of 1990 Austria -13. 0 Belgium -7. 5 Denmark -21. 0 Finland France Targets 20082012 under the Kyoto Protocol and effort sharing 0 0 Germany -21. 0 Greece +25. 0 Ireland +13. 0 Italy -6. 5 Luxembourg -28. 0 Netherlands -6. 0 Portugal +27. 0 Spain +15. 0 Sweden +4. 0 UK -12. 5 Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia Hungary, Poland Source: EU Insights, December 2007 -8. 0 -6. 0 Cyprus, Multa Developed counties Australia No target -5. 0 +8. 0

Selected EU policies and measures • • EU Emissions trading scheme operational since January, 2005 CDM and Joint Implementation credits since November, 2005 Monitoring mechanisms since March, 2004 Motor Challenge Programs operational since, 2003 – Emissions for cars 2009 • • Energy labelling of household appliances, 1996 Promote: – – • • • Electricity from renewables 2003 Bio-fuels for transport 2004 Cogeneration framework 2006 End-use efficiency 2006 Intelligent Energy Europe, 2007 -2013 Minimum performance standards for building, 2006 Eco-design for energy-using products, 2007 Action plan of energy efficiency, 2006 Efficiency permits for industrial/agricultural installations 2007 Campaigns – – “Save” component of “Intelligent Energy Europe” “Sustainable Energy Europe” “Climate Change Awareness” Shift from road to rail and water http: //ec. europa. eu/environment/climat/pdf/eu_climate_change_progr. pdf

“It is not an exaggeration to claim that the future of human prosperity depends on how successfully we tackle the two central energy challenges facing us today: • securing the supply of reliable and affordable energy and • effecting a rapid transformation to a low-carbon, efficient and environmentally benign system of energy supply What is needed is little short of an energy International Energy Agency revolution”

Emerging challenges of environmental and climate change in Europe • • January 17, 2013 The finite world we live in The EU circumstance Lessons for sustainable strategies Living with myths & prejudices Europe in the 21 st Century

The Real World Individuals interpret the real world Community at large Experts in the community, scientists, economists, engineers, etc. Constructivism Ideas of the way the world is, constructed from & heavily influenced by: • Observations • Culture, rules • Education • Belief, myths → Opinion Rationalism Ideas of the way the world is based on: • Formal observations • Hypothesis testing • Experimentation • Deduction Holistic rationalism The “non-reality world” Based on the integration of disciplinary descriptions Filtered by, vested interests, special pleading, conservatism, etc. Policy development

“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie -- deliberate, contrived and dishonest, but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic. Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought” John F. Kennedy (1917 - 1963) July 28, 17, 2013 January 2011 Renewablethe 21 st in Australian Europe in Energy Century Australian Energy and Utility Summit ‘ 11

Leunig, The Age, July 9, 2011 January 17, 2013 Europe in the 21 st Century