Elements of the Next Economy 2009 State of

Elements of the Next Economy 2009 State of the Future and Futures Research Methodology Version 3. 0 Jerome C. Glenn Director, The Millennium Project

The Millennium Project 2009 STATE OF THE FUTURE JEROME C. GLENN, THEODORE J. GORDON and ELIZABETH FLORESCU

Some Elements of the Emerging Global Economic System to improve the human condition by 2030 • With increasing global interdependence and the speed of • • change, even greater economic disasters may be possible than the one the world is experiencing today. Capitalism, socialism, and communism are early industrial age systems. What are some future elements of the next global economy from which the next system might emerge? 35 such elements/attractors were identified and rated as to how important they were to the he human condition Both numeric ratings and descriptions of how they could have positive and negative impacts

Demographics, the Sample: 217 participants from 35 countries 27 days

Top 10 Most Beneficial Elements over next 20 years Import Resp Agree 1 Ethics: a key element in economic exchanges 8. 36 168 0. 86 2 GDP definitions that include all forms of national wealth 7. 96 164 0. 78 3 Small tax on use of commons directed to global public goods 7. 75 172 0. 83 4 Collective intelligence: global commons for the knowledge economy 7. 74 155 0. 88 5 Education in the evolving economic system and its elements 7. 64 154 0. 83 6 Simultaneous knowing – time lags changed or eliminated in information dissemination with much greater transparency. 7. 61 168 0. 79 Value of natural resources used in production included in pricing 7. 56 162 0. 76 Women’s political-economic roles essentially on par with men 7. 25 182 0. 68 9 Increased disclosure of "tax havens" , secret accounts 7. 10 153 0. 68 10 Wealth, re-defined as experience and not the accumulation of money or physical things 6. 83 161 0. 62 7 8

Most Controversial – bimodal distribution: • Global mechanisms for automatic financial stabilization; • • e. g. , international convention for an automated system (expert software) to make financial policy changes as economic conditions change, conducted initially in larger economic countries Single global currency Artificial life—as computers were a key element in the information economy, so too artificial life might be a key to the next economy Internationalization of labor unions Labels on financial instruments, something like nutrition labels on food.

Some other interesting elements • Simultaneous knowing – time lags changed or • • • eliminated in information dissemination with much greater transparency. Non-ownership, as distinct from private ownership or collective/state ownership. A current example is open source software. Alternatives to continuously creating artificial demand growth Self-employment via the Internet—Individuals seek markets for their abilities rather than jobs

Futures Research Methodology Versions 1. 0, 2. 0, and 3. 0 • Version 3. 0 is the largest internationally peer-reviewed • • collection of methods to explore the future ever assembled 39 chapters totaling 1, 200 -1, 300 pages 1994 Version 1. 0 had 17 Chapters, funded by UNDP/African Futures 2003 Version 2. 0 had 27 Chapters, funded by the U. S. Army Environmental Policy Institute 2009 Version 3. 0 has 39 Chapters, funded by the Rockefeller Foundation

Each chapter follows a similar outline: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Short overview of the method's history Description of the method How to do it Strengths and weaknesses Use in combination with other methods Speculation about future of the method

Collective Intelligence • • Key element in the next economics Key result of futures research methodology Key strategy for addressing the 15 Global Challenges It is an emergent property from synergies among • data/info/knowledge • software/hardware • experts that continually learns from feedback to produce (nearly) just in time knowledge for better decisions than these elements acting alone.

Some updates from the 2009 State of the Future: • There are more Internet users in China than people in the USA • March 2009 an asteroid missed the Earth by 48, 000 miles, 80% closer to • • the earth than the moon. None knew it was coming. US-China meetings on Global Climate Change collaboration (Apollo-like goal and NASA-line Energy-Climate Change Agency) China could pass US Economy by 2030, assuming it does not break up (water, income gaps, energy, separatist Muslim region). World pop – 6. 78 billion (June 2009) and growing at 1. 14% per year (1. 16% last year); hi, mid, low projections for 2050 - 10. 5, 9. 2, 8. 0 billion, and than falls without longevity breakthroughs; Industrial countries fertility rates UP from 1. 35 projected in 2006 to 1. 64 7% annual growth in developing countries over past 5 years, to drop to 3% for 2009 – still 3 billion people living on $2 or less per day;

Some more items from the 2009 State of the Future: • World recession lowers State of the Future Index for 10 years • US-China 10 -year Apollo-like climate change goal with an energy • • R&D program to achieve it gaining interest (US/China Press Conf) Press freedoms are continuing to decline Half the world continues to be vulnerable to instability and violence • • World recession Rising prices of food and energy and fertilizer Scarcity of water and food Falling water tables, drying rivers Desertification Climate change Failing states Political, economic, and environmental migrations

15 Global Challenges–the Agenda today 1 How can sustainabledevelopment be be How can sustainable development achieved for all? 2 How can everyonehave sufficient How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? 15 How can ethical considerations 3 How can population growth and Howcan population growth and become more routinely resources be brought into balance? resources be broughtbalance? incorporated into global decisions? 4 14 How can genuine democracy How can scientific and emerge from authoritarian technological breakthroughs be be technological breakthroughs regimes? accelerated to improve the human condition? 5 How can policymaking be human condition? 13 made more sensitive How can growingenergy made more sensitive to to How can growing global long-term demands be met safely and demands be metsafely and global long-term perspectives? efficiently? perspectives? How can transnational 6 12 How can the global How can transnational organized crime networks be convergence of information stopped from becomingmore and communications stopped from becoming more and communications technologies work for powerful and sophisticated technologies work for everyone? global enterprises? everyone? 7 How can ethical market 11 How can thechanging How can the changing How can ethical market status of women improve economies be encouraged to the human condition? help reduce the gap between the human condition? help reduce the gap rich and poor? How can shared values and new 10 How can shared values and new between rich and poor? 8 How can the threat of new security strategiesreduce ethnic security strategies reduce ethnic How can thethreat of new and conflicts, terrorism, and the of reemerging diseases immune conflicts, terrorism, and the useuse of reemerging diseases andand immune microorganisms be reduced? weapons of mass destruction? How can the capacity to decide be be 9 How can the capacity to decide improved as the nature of work and improved as the nature of work institutions change?

A Few words about…

The Millennium Project is Global. . . • Geographically • Institutionally • Disciplinarily • Research focus

UN Universities Organizations Millennium Project Governments Corporations NGOs … May become a Trans. Institution

Millennium Project Nodes. . . are groups of individuals and institutions that connect global and local views in: Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.

The Millennium Project 2009 STATE OF THE FUTURE JEROME C. GLENN, THEODORE J. GORDON and ELIZABETH FLORESCU

For further information Jerome C. Glenn The Millennium Project 4421 Garrison Street, NW, Washington, D. C. 20016 USA +1 -202 -686 -5179 phone/fax JGLENN@IGC. ORG WEB 1. 0 www. Stateofthe. Future. org WEB 2. 0 www. mpcollab. org Second Life MP site under construction