Electric Hybrid and Fuel Cell Vehicles Oct 24

Electric, Hybrid, and Fuel Cell Vehicles Oct. 24, 2003 Gary Flomenhoft, BSME, MAPP, CEE Research Associate Gund Institute, SNR Owner: Inn. EVations. com

Electric Vehicles 1 st Wave 1890 -1920 The years 1899 and 1900 were the high point of electric vehicles in America, as they outsold all other types of cars. Source: US DOE “Better batteries 10 years away” “Liars, damn liars, and battery manufacturers. ” -Thomas Edison (Ni-Fe)

Hubbert Oil Cycle M. King Hubbert

Two Views • Julian Simon view: technological developments and human ingenuity will yield more resources –“Drowning in oil” The Economist, March 6 th-12 th 1999, pp. 23 -25 • Colin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert curves to predict the end of oil S. Gürcan Gülen, Ph. D. –“The End of Cheap Oil” Scientific American, March 1998, pp. 78 -83 (Campbell and Laherrere)

Ehrlich/Simon bet

Source-World Oil Extraction

World Oil Extraction

Hubbert-Epoch of Fossil Fuel

World Oil Extraction

Atmospheric CO 2 since 1000 AD CO 2 PPM

SINK-CLIMATE CHANGE Does CO 2 change the climate and how bad is it?

SINK-CLIMATE CHANGE Does CO 2 change the climate and how bad is it? 2 BILLION YEARS You are here

SINK-CLIMATE CHANGE Does CO 2 change the climate and how bad is it?

SINK-CLIMATE CHANGE Arctic Ice thinned by 40%: US subs

Europe in August 2003 COUNTRY DEATHS DETAILS Temperatures soared to 104 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of the country; temperatures in Paris were France 14, 802 the highest since record-keeping began in 1873. 7000 High temperatures of up to 105. 4 degrees Fahrenheit, the hottest since records began in 1901, raised mortality some 10 percent above average. 4230 High temperatures coupled with elevated groundlevel ozone concentrations exceeding the European Union's health-risk threshold. Italy UK Neth Portugal Belgium 4175 2045 1400 1316 150 Temperatures in parts of the country averaged 16 degrees Fahrenheit higher than previous year. TOTAL 35, 118 Germany Spain The first triple digit (Fahrenheit) temperatures were recorded in London. Temperatures ranged some 14 degrees warmer than normal. Temperatures were above 104 degrees Fahrenheit throughout much of the country. Temperatures exceeded any in the Royal Meteorological Society's records dating back to 1833.

CLIMATE DAMAGE

1980’s 2 nd Wave of EVs Jet Industries: Citi-Car (Beaumont) Electricar Lectra “Better batteries 10 years away”

Percentage Sector Contribution to Air Pollution Emissions (1995) Source: WRI Estimate Based on Data from "National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1995, " 1996, EPA 454/R-96 -005. AIR POLLUTION FATALITIES NOW EXCEED TRAFFIC FATALITIES BY 3: 1 http: //www. earth-policy. org/Updates/Update 17. htm

US CO 2 by Sector (1999) Source: (US EPA)

Source: EPA

Gas Hog Tax Credit Hummer H 1 Sticker price $106, 185 Current law Equipment deduction $25, 000 Total tax deduction* $60, 722 Bush economic plan Equipment deduction $75, 000 Total tax deduction* $88, 722 * Includes bonus tax write-off enacted by Congress in March 2002 and a deduction for normal depreciation. Sources: Detroit News research, IRS, Taxpayers for Common Sense

Tom Tomorrow

If World consumption = US: Need 4 more planets Source: Center for A New American Dream

Cars per Thousand People Source: Just. Auto. com Thomas Gross, US DOE “Today there are 670 million vehicles in the world. By 2050 that number is expected to increase to 4. 5 billion or maybe more. ”

Why did automakers build EVs in 90’s? NOT Env. Or MARKET DRIVEN! Gas is cheap. ($400 billion annual subsidy) 1990 -CARB Mandate • More than 95% of Californians live in areas that do not meet health-based federal or state air quality standards. • Approximately 50% of smog-forming pollutants come from gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles. • Although many automobiles sold in California today are 98% cleaner than those sold 30 years ago, population growth and increased driving may soon outpace our ability to improve air quality if we rely solely on continued improvements to gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles. • ZEVS required for further reductions

1990 CA Air Resources Board Mandates Model Years 1998 2001 2003 -2008 2009 -2011 2012 -2014 2015 -2017 2018+ ZEVs reqd. in CA 2%* 5%* 10% 11% 12% 14% 16% * Requirement modified in 1996

ZEV EMISSIONS Source: CA Air Resources Board Do ZEVs simply shift air emissions from one place to another? Even when taking into account power plant emissions, ZEVs are 95% cleaner than even the lowest emitting conventional vehicle.

EVs 3 rd Wave 1990+: First Phase = (Small Conversion companies) Solar Electric Engineering (US Electricar) “Better batteries 10 years away”

Mendo. Motive

Inn. EVations

Thunderstruck-EV. com

1990’s 2 nd Phase: Small Corporations, US Solectria: Corbin: Tropica (Beaumont) “Better batteries 10 years away”

Europe: City-El 5000 Sold Party

Phase 3: Nearing 1998 Detroit and Japan Detroit: We can’t do it. Hire Lawyers. (Can’t do seatbelts, 5 mph bumpers, side impact protection, unleaded gas, better gas mileage, airbags, etc. ) GM EV-1 Gen 1: Lead Acid 70 - 90 miles Model Years ZEVs reqd. in CA 1998 2%* 2001 5%* 2003 -2008 10% 2009 -2011 11% 2012 -2014 12% 2015 -2017 14% 2018+ 16% * Requirement modified in 1996 Gen 2: Nickel Metal Hydride 125 -150 miles

Cost of regulations-OMB report Annual Cost: $37 -43 billion EPA conservative approach, Consistently overestimates costs, not considering least cost approach and technical innovation Annual Benefits: $121 -193 EPA consistently underestimates benefits USING ACTUAL NOT THEORETICAL CASES BENEFITS OUTWEIGH COSTS 5: 1

Japan: We can do it. Hire engineers. Honda EVPlus Nickel Metal Hydride 80 miles EV Plus Specs Length: 159. 3 in. Width: 68. 9 in. Height: 64. 2 in. Wheel Base 99. 6 in. Track Front/Rear: 59. 1/58. 7 Curb Weight: 3593. 5 Drive Train: Front Wheel Drive Occupants: Four Voltage: 288 Motor: Brushless PM Power: 49 Kw (66 hp) Battery 24 12 v Ni. MH Charger: On-board Conductive Recharge: 6 -8 hrs Acceleration: 4. 9 sec (0 -30 mph) Maximum Speed: 80+ mph Range: 100 miles (80% discharge) Lease Cost: $455/mo for 36 mo.

Japan: We can do it. Hire engineers. Honda EVPlus Nickel Metal Hydride 80 miles Nissan Altra Lithium-ion 80 -100 miles Toyota RAV 4 -EV Nickel Metal Hydride 80 miles Better Batteries are finally here, but you can’t afford them.

Neighborhood Electric Vehicles FORD Th!nk Nissan Hypermini Chrysler GEM Toyota E-com OTHER EVS

ENERGY STORAGE Performance of Energy Storage Systems Fuel Specific Energy Wh/kg Gasoline 12, 300 Natural gas 9, 300 Hydrogen 33, 000 Lead-acid battery 30 Advanced Lead Acid 48 Gasoline: C 8 H 18

ENERGY STORAGE Performance of Advanced EV Battery Systems Energy Density Wh/kg Power Density W/kg Life Cycles Lead-acid battery 30 150 300 USABC Advanced Lead Acid 48 150 800 and others GM Ovonic nickel metal hydride 70 220 >600 SAFT nickel metal hydride 70 150 1, 500 SAFT lithium ion 120 230 600 Lithium polymer 150 350 <600 60 255 500 160 -220 low ? Source: Evercel Nickel-zinc Zinc-Air Composite Flywheels Supercapacitors 120

LITHIUM-ION BATTERY SOURCE: ELECTRIC STORAGE ASSOC.

COMPOSITE FLYWHEELS SOURCE: ELECTRIC STORAGE ASSOC.

SUPERCAPACITORS SOURCE: ELECTRIC STORAGE ASSOC.

ZINC-AIR FUEL CELL SOURCE: ELECTRIC STORAGE ASSOC.

MECHANICAL RECHARGE ZINC-AIR FUEL CELL SOURCE: METALLIC POWER. COM

ENERGY DENSITY BY WEIGHT AND VOLUME SOURCE: ELECTRIC STORAGE ASSOC.

CARB DEFINITIONS Passenger car emissions reduction C L E A N E R HC CO NOx TLEV- Transitional Low-Emission 50% NR NR Vehicle LEV- Low-Emission Vehicle 70% NR 50% ULEV- Ultra-Low-Emission 85% 50% SULEV- Super-Ultra-Low-Emission Vehicle (90% cleaner than 2003 average) 96% 70% 95% PZEV-Partial Zero-Emission- 96% 70% 95% Vehicle SULEV & 15 year/150 K mile warranty and 0 evaporative emissions. Vehicle (50% cleaner than the average new 2003 model year vehicle. ) AT PZEV-Advanced Technology 96% PZEV (CNG, hybrid-electric, 70% 95% methanol, fuel cell) PZEV & and include advanced technology components. ZEV-Zero-Emission Vehicles (98% 100% cleaner than the average new 2003 model year vehicle. ) 100%

What is a Hybrid Electric Vehicle?

Available Hybrid Electric Vehicles 2000 -2004 TOYOTA PRIUS $22, 000 -$26, 000 60 hwy 48 city 1999 -2004 HONDA INSIGHT $19, 180 -21, 380 Std: 68 auto: 62/58 2003 -2004 HONDA CIVIC $20, 260 -$21, 110 std: 46/51 auto: 48/47

Hybrid Electric Vehicles 2005 FORD ESCAPE HYBRID Loaded ICE $26, 700 Hybrid ~35 -40 mpg city Semi-hybrid 2004 GM “Flex. Power” Chevy Silverado Pickup 10 -15% mpg improvement

Future Hybrid Electric Vehicles Nissan Tino Nissan's Hybrid Vehicle(HV) is called the Tino. It is powered by a combination of a 1. 8 -liter four-cylinder engine and an electric motor with lithium-ion batteries. The vehicle is a five passenger car that achieves twice the fuel economy and 50% less emissions. Nissan's Tino hybrid electric car will be sold only in Japan, initially. Spring 2004 LEXUS HYBRID Fall 2004 Toyota Hylander

Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV) Since 1993 -$1. 1 billion GM Precept Hybrid Chrysler ESX 2 Hybrid Dodge ESX-3 hybrid 1. 5 -liter direct-injection three-cylinder diesel engine 15 -k. W or 20 -hp, permanent magnet electric motor/generator 2006 Ford Futura 21 -k. W lithium-ion battery pack.

Future Hybrid Electric Vehicles Manufacturer Ford Model Explorer Year 2005+ GM Chevy Suburban 2005 Saturn VUE 2005 Chevy Equinox 2006 GMC Yukon Chevy Tahoe Daimler. Chrysler 2007 Dodge Ram Pickup Mercedes Sclass 2005 2006

FUEL CELL VEHICLES-2004 FORD The Ford Focus FCV fuel cell system is efficient, quiet, and produces zero emissions. Ford has announced plans to have a three year demonstration program of 5 -10 fleet vehicles in Vancouver, Canada in 2004.

FUEL CELL VEHICLES-2003 Honda is delivering a family of new FCX fuelcell vehicles to its first customer, the city of Los Angeles. Honda plans to lease approximately 30 fuel-cell cars in California and Japan during the next several years. The fuel-cell itself is propelled by electricity generated by a hydrogen-oxygen chemical reaction—and its only emission, remarkably, is water vapor.

FUEL CELL VEHICLES-2003 TOYOTA (NOT AVAILABLE) Its only exhaust is water vapor. Its secret? A hydrogen fuel cell that harnesses the electricity of separated atoms and molecules as they strive to be electrically balanced. Developed entirely in-house, FCHV-4 shows Toyota on the leading edge of fuel-cell technology.

FUEL CELL VEHICLES-NISSAN X-TRAIL FCV Nissan is actively developing fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) that have low environmental impact and save energy. Commercialization is scheduled for 2003. (? ? ? )

FUEL CELL VEHICLES-GM PROTOTYPE The Hy-wire has no internal combustion engine, instrument panel, brake or accelerator pedals – but it does have ample power supplied by a GM fuel cell that runs on hydrogen.

FUEL CELL VEHICLES-DAIM/CHRYSLER

FUEL CELL VEHICLES-HYUNDAI

HYDROGEN FUEL CELL OPERATION SOURCE: Schatz Energy Lab Humboldt State U.

PEM HYDROGEN FUEL CELLS SOURCE: Schatz Energy Lab Humboldt State U. PEM= Proton Exchange Membrane (“Nafion”tm)

SOME SURPRISING FACTS ABOUT HYDROGEN Q 1) IS HYDROGEN A revolutionary NEW ENERGY SOURCE? Where does hydrogen come from? Fossil: nat gas, propane, gasoline, methanol Renewable: electric wind, solar, etc. electrolyze water Methane (CH 4), methanol(CH 3 OH), ammonia(NH 3? ) A) HYDROGEN STORES & TRANSPORTS ENERGY. A CARRIER NOT A SOURCE. Q 2) WHICH IS MORE EFFICIENT, FUEL CELL OR BATTERIES? A) BATTERIES

H 2 Fuel Cell Efficiency INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE oil (gasoline) -> IC engine 15% BATTERY POWERED ELECTRIC VEHICLE Oil-> power plant -> electricity ~=45% transmission~=80% battery charging ~=80% electric drive system ~=80% . 45 x. 8 = 23% FUEL CELL POWERED ELECTRIC VEHICLE Oil-> power plant-> electricity~=45% electricity transmission ~=80% H 2 electrolyzer max efficiency ~=70% H 2 fuel cell max efficiency ~=50% Electric drive system ~=80% . 45 x. 8 x. 7 x. 5 x. 8 = 10%

SOLAR FUEL CELLS ? SOURCE: Schatz Energy Lab Humboldt State U. last

Most efficient form of transportation Source: http: //www. geocities. com/Hollywood/Set/7466/bikepics. htm