Education Poverty and the MDGs New research and

Education, Poverty and the MDGs: New research and what it means for the EFA Agenda Presentation to the UNESCO Working Group on EFA UNESCO, Paris November 16, 2007 Barbara Bruns Lead Economist Human Development Network World Bank 1

Three objectives…. • Brief overview of global MDG progress • Emerging thinking on education and growth – recent work of the World Bank Commission on Growth and Development • Implications for the EFA agenda 2

I. Overview of MDG Progress From (World Bank) GMR 2007: Confronting the Challenges of Gender Equality and Fragile States Main Messages 3

Significant progress toward MDG 1 Globally MDG 1 is on track (2015 forecast = 12%). Figure 1. 1: Share of people living on less than $1 or $2 a day (%) (with estimates for 2004 and projection for 2015) 4

Regional progress differs sharply East Asia has already surpassed the MDG 1 target. Sub-Saharan Africa lags well behind the target. Share of people living on less than $1 or $2 a day (%) – East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa (with estimates for 2004 and projection for 2015) 5

The pace of poverty reduction depends on more than growth * China: 1999 -2004 Burkina Faso: 1998 -2003 Brazil: 1999 -2002 Mozambique: 1996 -2002 India: 1994 -2005 Nigeria: 1996 -2003 Laos: 1997 -2002 Peru: 1996 -2003 Source: World Bank – Development Economics 6

But also cautionary notes… Risks to positive outlook – unwinding of global imbalances (US trade deficit), pandemic, oil price volatility. • Environmental sustainability: growth for many is through depleting their natural assets. • Fragile states are being left out: weak growth, little progress with poverty reduction, persistent fragility Unadjusted and Adjusted Net Savings Figure presents the calculation of adjusted net saving in Bolivia in 2003 7

Lagging growth performance in fragile states • Defined by weak governance and institutions; often affected by conflict. • Fragile states have consistently grown more slowly than other low-income countries. • State fragility has proven to be a persistent condition— 21 of the 34 states judged as fragile in 1980, were still viewed as such in 2005. 8

Advancing the MDGs--Fragile states are least likely to meet MDG 1 Extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Fragile states • 35 states—home to 9% (500 million) of the developing world’s population and 27% of its extreme poor. • State fragility has proven to be a persistent condition— 21 of the 34 states judged as fragile in 1980, were still viewed as such in 2005. • Impact beyond borders. • Pose a dilemma for development community. 9

Fragile states are the least likely to meet the MDGs • Facing the largest MDG gap; 27% of extreme poor; nearly 1/3 of child deaths and children not completing school; ¼ of the HIV positive population • Need to strengthen international partnerships, and deepen lessons on approaches. Sources: World Bank Staff estimates 10

Human Development MDGs: 4 broad messages 1. Progress is accelerating, but not enough to meet the goals • All regions – and 80% of countries -- off track on child mortality goal – South Asia off track on all goals – Sub-Saharan Africa off track on all goals • …but some countries in every region showing exceptional results • Mozambique, Cambodia, Benin, Rwanda and Niger in primary completion • Timor Leste, Vietnam, Bhutan, Mongolia and Eritrea on child mortality • Increase in ART access (Botswana, Kenya, South Africa and Uganda have reached 50% of those in need) and declining HIV prevalence in some countries • Malawi and Namibia on track to water target; Senegal on 11 sanitation

2. ODA for HD has increased, but uneven progress on harmonization ODA for HD is increasing …especially in health 12

EFA FTI is fostering harmonization and alignment in education… but these remain key issues in health • A high share of health ODA is earmarked for specific diseases • A high share is off governments’ budgets and sometimes off national accounts (eg. drugs and other in-kind supplies) • A high share is managed by NGOs or by donors directly • All of this may be good for donor tracking of results… • …but it undermines countries’ accountability for health outcomes, and ability to invest efficiently in health system strengthening 13

3. The poor are benefiting from MDG progress, especially in education Pro-poor progress on primary completion… 14

Child mortality progress likely to reach the poor… 15

4: In both health and education, a stronger focus on quality is needed -- even while scaling up quantity New research shows the quality of health delivery marked by large “competence/practice” gaps • In India, doctors completed only 26% of recommended protocol for diagnosing TB and 18% of the protocol for a child with diarrhea • In Tanzania in 2004, 67% of clinicians mistreated TB and 24% mistreated malaria in reality, while reporting appropriate practice 16

Quality in health delivery: where doctors work affects “competence/practice gap” • Institutional setting and “high powered incentives” make a difference – doctors in autonomous facilities more likely to perform up to ability • Contracting for results in Cambodia, Argentina, Afghanistan, Rwanda is showing some promise 17

Growing evidence of low learning levels in developing countries… 18

…and wide gaps in learning even at primary level 19

Little international test evidence for low-income countries, but early grade reading assessments show widespread problems… • In India, a 2005 nationwide survey conducted by Pratham showed 68% of children in grades 2 -5 could not read a very short paragraph • In Peru, 46% of children at the end of 2 nd grade in 2005 could not read a single word of a first grade text in 2005 • In Kenya, 30% of 2 nd and 3 rd graders unable to read any words in a first grade text in 2006 • In rural Cameroun, 80% of 3 rd grade students in 2005 could not read a single word of a first grade text 20

GMR 2007 conclusion: Stronger focus on quality needed in both education and health • No evidence of an inherent “tradeoff” between access and quality over long term – Globally, highest performing education and health systems have broadest access – Extending basic services to all crucial for equity, long-term social stability, and economic gains from human development • But closer monitoring of quality needed as countries scale up • Measure quality in terms of results: – outputs (level of patient service delivered and instructional time) and outcomes (student learning, health outcomes). – Inputs (qualification levels, numbers of clinics) don’t guarantee results • Govts and donors should focus on incentives for quality – Need for international tests that are more relevant for developing countries – Support experimentation and evaluation of “contracting for performance” in health 21

II. Education, Growth and Poverty Reduction: New Evidence • • • Hanushek and Woessman Carneiro, Attanasio and Meghir Aghion Cunha and Heckman Kremer 22

Hanushek and Woessman: Cognitive Skills and Economic Development New analysis of international test results suggests skills are key for returns to education, growth, and income distribution • Most of the returns to years of schooling are returns to quality, ie. skill levels • And the connection between “quality” and economic growth “dwarfs the association between the quantity of education and growth – (1 SD increase in avg. int’l test performance assoc. with 1 -2 percentage point higher GDP/cap. ) 23

Source: Hanushek and Woessman, presentation to Growth Commission, 10/19/07 24

Hanushek and Woessman, ctd. • The distribution of learning performance makes a difference for growth: • Broad-based “minimal skills” seems to be key for capturing the economic benefits of education • But a high share of top performers -- “rocket scientists” – seems to exert independent positive effects • And open economies benefit most 25

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Carneiro et al: Changing Returns to Education • Economic return to primary education is high in low-income, low literacy countries • But it evaporates quite quickly as countries develop – Real wages fall for primary grads relative to others – Then wages for secondary grads fall relative to higher education 27

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Carneiro, ctd. • Countries are having difficulty expanding higher education fast enough • Short window of time where returns to primary education are high 29

Aghion: Growth and the Financing of Higher Education 30

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Aghion, ctd. • Result: – Finds that investments in “high brow” education (ie, research universities) are more growth-enhancing for states closer to the technological frontier and – Conversely, investments in “low brow” education (2 year community colleges) are more growth-enhancing for states further from the technological frontier • Echoes Hanushek’s hypothesis that both broad – based education and production of “rocket scientist” can contribute to growth, but through different routes…. 34

Cunha and Heckman: Investing in Young People 35

Cunha and Heckman, ctd 36

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Kremer: Education Policies in Developing Countries • Debate on cross-country evidence on education and growth interesting, but… • Prima facie evidence that education investment in most countries is large and pretty inefficient • Priority should be building evidence on “what works” to keep kids in school and raise learning (at minimum cost) – eg, Camera project (Duflo and Hanna). Absenteeism reduced by 50%, test scores went up by 0. 17 SD after a year 38

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Estimated Cost per 0. 1 SD increase in test scores (Kenya and India) – Duflo and Kremer 40

III. Implications for EFA Agenda • Primary completion (MDG 2) is not enough • EFA goals are right to stress: – LEARNING!!! – ECD – Post-basic education • Pursuit of multiple goals makes cost-effective approaches all the more imperative • And points to crucial need for: – Good, relevant, learning assessments for developing countries – More, high quality impact evaluations to build the evidence on cost-effective policies 41

Putting a teacher in a classroom is not enough…. 42

Thank you The World Bank/IMF Global Monitoring Report and related materials are available at: http: //www. worldbank. org/gmr 2007 Information on the Spanish Impact Evaluation Trust Fund is available at: http: //web. worldbank. org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TO PICS/EXTPOVERTY 43