Economics of A I Robin Hanson George Mason

Economics of A. I. Robin Hanson George Mason University

A Fog of Future Possibilities To Deal With: • Focus on big, robust, sharp changes • Combine expert knowledge from several fields • Beware: experts in A with newspaper level knowledge of B.

Types of Views Amateur Fun Serious Expert Usual Novel

A. I. -Econ View Combos Econ Amateur Fun Amateur A. I. Fun Serious Expert Serious Science Fiction Novel Krugman’s SF paper News Media Usual “How survive Some of you robot uprising” guys Novel Some of you guys Expert Usual Silence NEED! Crank?

Social Science Exists!! Once Express Tech in Econ Terms, Can Say • Tech’s social implications – Given weak regulation ✔✔✔✔ ✔ – Given particular strong regulation ✔✔✔ • Likely regulations, given political climate ✔✔ – Likely political climates ✔ • Social support of tech innovations ✔✔ ✔ • Tech innovations given social support ✖

Econ Terms • Utility Functions – what folks want – Like outputs, e. g. , products, services – Dislike give up inputs, e. g. , effort, time • • Production Functions - outputs from inputs Endowments – base inputs, e. g. abilities Info - who knows how much about what Deals - trades allowed, contracts enforced

Economics of Robots • Staple of fiction – ancient legends to TV now • If have more of X, do you want Y more (complement) or less (substitute)? • Machine as Substitute to human labor – Predicts wages fall to machine cost – Ricardo 1821, most science fiction • Automation as Complement to human labor – Predicts wages rise as automation costs fall – Wicksell 1923, modern economics consensus • So are robots a substitute or complement?

Tasks Are Complements Machines Do These Humans Do These Substitute For Task Useful Mental Tasks Human Advantage Robots Substitute On Task, But Tasks Are Complements

Human Advantage A Rising Tide Useful Mental Tasks

A Simple Robot Growth Model Assume constant: Seek These

Switch Between Growth Modes Exogenous Tech Pre-Robot Post-Robot Learning by doing: Endogenous Tech

100 x Faster Growth Isn’t Crazy Slow Mid Fast

Error 9. 6% 2. 0% 1. 7%

World Product Growth Rate Could It Happen Again? Industry Farming Hunting Brains

Growth Mode Statistics

Forecasting The Next Mode Sample growth rate transition Date Rate

Industry Shares of US GDP

Factor Shares of Income

Cheap For Robots • • • Immortality (even so, most can’t afford) Travel – transmit to new body Nature – don’t need ecosystems Wildly differing bodies Widely varying mental abilities – e. g. , run speed Survive in severe environments – Backups insure against severe events • Labor – work gets less tool intensive

Copies Become Cheap • Malthusian population explosion – Makes rapid economic growth • Robot wages fall to hardware cost – And hardware costs fall fast too – Human wages may fall to robot wages • Depends on human-robot task landscape shape • Not matter if robots slave or free – Only Draconian population or wage laws could stop

Humans Eclipsed • Wages well below human subsistence – Though some humans may find servant jobs • But rich if held non-wage assets – Investments double as fast as economy! • Robot-Human war unlikely if integrated – E. g. , lefties don’t war against righties

Human Level Robots Require • Sensors/Actuators (arms/eyes) • Processors • Software – Direct code it? ~now <~2040 ? ? Hard! – Learn from brain organization? Eventually? – Simulate particular human brain? Can Do!

Needed To Emulate Brains 1. Model each brain cell type 2. Scan – freeze, slice, 2 D scan 3. Computer (very parallel task)

Simulating Dominos • Wave speed, energy are robust • Only a few details matter • Brains seem similar

Emulations Feel Human • Most emulations are of few best humans – First mover advantage to show quality • Remember human life, retain human tendencies – love, gossip, argue, sing, violate, play, work, innovate • More alienated worlds - as farms, factories were – Office work in virtual reality, – Physical work in android bodies • Many humans won’t believe conscious, “is me” – But same social implications, few dozen is plenty

More Implications • Copies rent bodies, or own on loan – Evicted if can’t pay!! • To recoup training investment, copy cabal limit copy wage – Security to prevent bootleg copies • Fast growth discourages transport, encourages local production • Laws hold copies co-responsible • <1 cm robots seem feasible – Mind/body sped up with size reduction – 0. 2 in. tall => Subjective year/day in 24 hr/4 min • One skyscraper holds billions - is megacity – City radius now is hour travel distance => 10 sec

Time Line Non-Profit Research • • • For-Profit Research And Development Sell, Maintain, Use IP rights secure? • Rights of Emulation Regulation fears? • Govt. Slow or Speed? Second mover better? • What tech ready last? – Computer –> gradual Secrets leak fast? – Sim/Model –> sudden What products drive?

World Product, 10 K BC-2 K AD Singularities!

World Product, 2 Million BC+

Bigger Brains Millions of Years

Modeling Exponential Sequences Exponential Modes CES Combined Method: Min Doubling Time Factor 1 st Date Mode Biggest World Product Factor

Outline • Economic capacity drives tech, wartech • World long-term econ trend mostly steady – Now doubles in ~15 years • So far have seen 2 -4 “singularities” when – World econ growth rate increased x 150 -250 – In much less than a previous doubling time • Next? : by 2100, takes 5 yr, double monthly • Candidate driver: whole brain emulation

Emulation Supply & Demand Now Later? Price Cost Value Quantity Cost Net Quantity

Kinds of Costs • • • Design Build Maintain Repair Security Material Energy Capital Labor Time Delay • • • Any brain Per copy Scale Scope Kinds of Strategy • Lockin • Standards • Price Discrim. • Lease/Buy • Bundle • Differentiate

Kinds of Quality • • Speed Weight Portability Reliability Durability Power needs Environs handle • Security • Nearness to human behavior, feeling • Improve: memory, interface range, bandwidth