Economics/Market Review The Lull Before the Storm Daryl Montgomery June 18, 2015 Copyright 2015, All Rights Reserved
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US Economic Recovery Hits Some Rough Patches
Stock Market – What Could Go Wrong?
Political News: If Elected, Trump Has Already Selected 1 st Dog
U. S. Roundup • Q 1 GDP came in at MINUS 0. 7% (doublyseasonally adjusted considered for stats) • Jobs 280 K in May, even though other econ indicator looking bad. Not in Labor Force hit record in April. • Retail sales up 1. 2%, mostly on higher gas prices (not adjusted for inflation). • Industrial Production down since Nov. US manufacturing technically in recession (MW) • Obamacare will cost taxpayers $50 K per enrollee.
Decline in US Labor Force
US GDP Post World War II
US Labor Productivity
Inflation – Official vs Actual (blue)
Fiscal State of U. S. - Mostly Unchanged • National Debt: $18. 3 trillion State & Local Debt: $3. 1 trillion GDP: $17. 8 trillion[calculation changed] Debt/GDP Ratio: 103% (120% Fed+State) • Unfunded Liabilities: $ 96 trillion Total National Assets: $116 trillion • Debt doesn’t include Federal Reserve, Fannie Mae + Freddie Mac and FHA obligations • Total US Debt: $ 61. 1 trillion* • Student Loans: $1. 4 trillion • Federal Budget Deficit -2014 $0. 483 trillion (CBO described as “modest”) • 2014 Trade Deficit $737 billion. • Historically average interest rates would bankrupt U. S.
Global News • Biggest Story: Greece faces default on June 30 th. Any resolution will only postpone crisis a few more months. The impact of default will last a long time. • China trade declines. Exports down 2. 8, imports 18. 1% YOY; Petro. Yuan is born. • ECB QE will be minimal during summer months, was frontloaded in spring. • Bursting Bubble: Massive sell off in German Bonds. • BP Stat Review of World Energy: 2014 Oil production much less than reported.
Who Knows if Greece Will Default?
German Bund Selloff - Yield
Stocks, Commodities, Currencies, Bonds
Market Summary • US stocks moving sideways. European stocks selling off. • Massive global sell off in bonds. Since March, there has been a large drop in bond long positions by big money. • Nasdaq has touched all-time high. • Dollar seems to have peaked. • Only cheap assets are commodities. • Oil has a confirmed double bottom.
Dow Industrials: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Dow Industrials: 10 -Years Monthly Volume, 10, 40 -Month Moving Averages,
S&P 500: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Nasdaq: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Nasdaq: 25 Years Monthly 10, 40 -Month Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Russell 2000: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
US Dollar DXY: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
German DAX: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Euro FXE: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Swiss Franc FXF: 3 -Years. Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
UK FTSE: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Japan Nikkei: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Japan Nikkei vs Yen: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Japanese Yen: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
China Shanghai Composite: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
India SENSEX: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Russia RSX: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Brazil BOVESPA: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Oil WTI: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Natural Gas: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Coffee JO: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Australian Dollar FXA: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Gold ETF GLD: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Miners ETF GDX: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Silver ETF SLV: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Copper JJC: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
30 -Year Treasury Yield: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 -Weekly Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
10 -Year Treasury Yield: 3 -Years Weekly 10, 40, 65 - Weekly Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
The End
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