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ECONOMIC COSTS OF TERRORISTS ATTACKS New Era Associates, L. L. C. ECONOMIC COSTS OF TERRORISTS ATTACKS New Era Associates, L. L. C.

“ It is very important to concentrate on hitting the U. S. economy through “ It is very important to concentrate on hitting the U. S. economy through all possible means. ” - Osama Bin Laden

Economic Impact $55 Billion = Drop in European Markets following the Madrid bombings $83 Economic Impact $55 Billion = Drop in European Markets following the Madrid bombings $83 Billion = Cost of the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center (Represents direct & indirect costs) $1 Trillion = Estimated Cost on the Global supply chain should a WMD be successfully detonated via a container

GLOBAL TRADE (GDP) Country 2000 2025 United States Brazil United Kingdom $9. 82 Trillion GLOBAL TRADE (GDP) Country 2000 2025 United States Brazil United Kingdom $9. 82 Trillion $762 Billion $1. 44 Trillion $18. 3 Trillion $1. 69 Trillion $2. 46 Trillion France Germany Italy Russia India China Japan $1. 31 Trillion $1. 87 Trillion $1. 08 Trillion $391 Billion $469 Billion $1. 07 Trillion $4. 18 Trillion $2. 09 Trillion $2. 60 Trillion $1. 62 Trillion $2. 26 Trillion $3. 17 Trillion $10. 2 Trillion $5. 57 Trillion

MEDIAN INCREASE SPENDING FOR SECURITY Mean increase on security in 2002 was only 4% MEDIAN INCREASE SPENDING FOR SECURITY Mean increase on security in 2002 was only 4% Permanent increases in security in 2002 by industry: 71% - Energy & utilities 62% - Financial Services 47% - Technology 46% - Healthcare 42% - Retail/Wholesale Trade 38% - Manufacturing

THE NEW PARADIGM: INTERCONNECTEDNESS A breech at any point along the system compromises the THE NEW PARADIGM: INTERCONNECTEDNESS A breech at any point along the system compromises the entire system. Security no longer a commercial risk, but rather a systematic risk.

THE NEW PARADIGM: INTERCONNECTEDNESS For small and medium size firms, security is either the THE NEW PARADIGM: INTERCONNECTEDNESS For small and medium size firms, security is either the cost of doing business OR doing no business. Security in post 9/11 era is an investment, not a cost center

“The economic bleeding in continuing to date, but it requires further strikes. The key “The economic bleeding in continuing to date, but it requires further strikes. The key pillars of the U. S. economy should be struck, GOD willing. The enemy can be defeated by attacking his economic centers. ” - Osama Bin Laden 12/27/01

A shift in Targets Hard Targets Soft Targets Multinational firms Small & Medium sized A shift in Targets Hard Targets Soft Targets Multinational firms Small & Medium sized enterprises United States & Western Europe Asia and Middle East Diplomatic Embassies Hotels, shopping centers, leisure, and residential facilities Defense contractors Military Bases

Five Suggested Attacks A cargo container assault mission aimed at a US choke point Five Suggested Attacks A cargo container assault mission aimed at a US choke point at Seattle/Tacoma, Los Angeles/Long Beach, or NY/NJ. In addition disrupting trade, such an attack would strike at the heart of communication, transportation and human traffic flows.

Five Suggested Attacks An incident directed at a petroleum port facility with Houston, Baton Five Suggested Attacks An incident directed at a petroleum port facility with Houston, Baton Rouge or Philadelphia the most likely targets. This would take advantage of the fragility of the system’s dependence on oil and act as a symbolic message to underscore the exploitation of the Arab world by the West.

Five Suggested Attacks Florida ports of Miami and Fort Lauderdale are hit simultaneously. Followed Five Suggested Attacks Florida ports of Miami and Fort Lauderdale are hit simultaneously. Followed by a biochemical assault on Disney World. The use of bio chemicals has biblical themes (pestilence, plague) Force the state to declare Federal bankruptcy (45 -60 day period). A “Personal” attack on Bush family.

Five Suggested Attacks An attack on the Malacca Straits in order to create a Five Suggested Attacks An attack on the Malacca Straits in order to create a crippling bottleneck to trade between Asia and Europe. Such a disruption would also bring to a virtual halt Middle. East oil exports to Asia.

Five Suggested Attacks The disruption of the US-Sino trade pact bringing the global economy Five Suggested Attacks The disruption of the US-Sino trade pact bringing the global economy to a halt. As defenses around strategic locations in the United States hardened, terrorists redirect efforts at China were security precautions are be more lax. This would be retaliation for China’s history of policies unfavorable toward Islamic groups and Moslem populations.

Impact to Global Supply Chain Off-shore outsourcing becomes a security issue as factors such Impact to Global Supply Chain Off-shore outsourcing becomes a security issue as factors such as diverse standards, security lapses, background checks and partnerships/coordination with the local infrastructure open the system to vulnerability

Impact of Supply chain attack Small-medium sized business impact Time to bankruptcy? Legal issues: Impact of Supply chain attack Small-medium sized business impact Time to bankruptcy? Legal issues: “fiduciary responsibilities” Ect. What to do?

Next Steps for your business Threat assessment: “ Is it real? ” Risk analysis: Next Steps for your business Threat assessment: “ Is it real? ” Risk analysis: “Where am I exposed? ” Implementation: Who, What, Where? Documentation: Cover the legal bases Government recommendations

“ We will continue to fight you as long as we have weapons in “ We will continue to fight you as long as we have weapons in our hands. ” - Osama Bin Laden 10/18/03