EARTHLY PROBLEMS AND SPACE SECURITY By Lt Gen

EARTHLY PROBLEMS AND SPACE SECURITY By Lt. Gen James Abrahamson (retired) 4 7 Boston University – 13 April 2007 Planet Earth is our principal refuge and will be for several centuries. But mankind has been plagued with wars and competition of every sort throughout the ages. This is expanding into space. We will use space along with other earthly efforts to work together to avoid war and minimize conflict.

DISCUSSION OUTLINE • Where are we today? • A parallel consideration— security at sea. • Some U. S. Views • Threats to Space Satellites • Threats from Space to earth. • A better future.

WHERE ARE WE TODAY? • The fundamental nature of international conflict has changed, but large and small countries will still engage in conflict. • The United States leads in many areas of advanced space technology. • Canada, Russia, Europe, Japan, India, and China all have robust space programs and unique space technology capabilities. • Space communications are vital to all international commerce and interactions. • Space surveillance is vital to our security, and that of our friends and allies.

A CAUTIOUS VIEW • Space has contributed to stability by providing information, even in very incendiary circumstances. • More and better information is nearly always best. • Global communications serves everyone, and enriches all. • The conquest of space and its advance of science has inspired all of mankind. • But caution and strength help make a good foundation for solving the DNA like complexity in human affairs.

SOME U. S. VIEWS • Gen. Joseph Cartwright, CC Stratcom: “. . intentional interference with U. S. military satellites, while not routine, now occurs with some regularity…space is a contested domain. . ” • Dr. Donald Kerr, Director NRO: “. . China’s demonstration of an anti-satellite system…. . dramatically illustrated the importance of understanding exactly how other countries might disrupt U. S. Space operations. • Rep. Ken Calvert (CA), House Armed Services Comm: “. . the competition is now in the back seat, not the rearview mirror…”

AN ANALOGY: SECURITY AT SEA • Sea travel and commerce is in mankind’s best interest. • From the 1921 and 1922 Washington Naval Treaty to WWII, sequential attempts were made to control battleships and limit warship armaments, size, capability and numbers: None of these efforts with their good will was effective or prevented WWII. • Most nations have important naval capability. • There are laws of the sea, protocols, regulations, cooperation among nations, and many other efforts to make sea commerce efficient and safe. • There are still criminal elements, pirates, and terrorists, as well as competing navies operating today and they have operated throughout history.

ALTERNATIVE THREAT PROJECTION BY ERA • Fifty year projection by three eras: 10 years, 15 years, and 25 years. The span is increased into the future to account for projection uncertainties. • This projection is hopefully the worst case, and with wise action and good will some part may be averted. • It is also primarily a technical potential. One which becomes even more threatening when large numbers of nations and organizations elect to participate. • Discoverability of the threat or the adverse action is critical to enforcement on earth, to find responsible groups and hold people accountable.

THREATS FROM EARTH TO SATELLITES FOR ERA I • • • APPROXIMATELY 10 YEARS FROM 2007 to 20016 Mostly anti-satellite interceptor rockets with various payloads, Payloads are conventional explosive driven destructive kill radius enhancers (i. e. rods or shrapnel such as anti-aircraft systems), or more accurate “hit –to kill” interceptors. Attacks render satellite non-functional—source of the failure is hard to know for certain, and the timing of the failure or where it occurred, may or may not be traceable. For certain satellites, i. e. low amplitude navigation signal satellites or communications satellites, jamming “tag along” satellites are a possibility. But this is hard and may not be worth the difficulty. Jammer satellites could be detected and countered. THREAT IS LIMITED TO A FEW NATIONS WITH TECHNICAL CAPABILITY, BUT OTHERS CAN BUY THREAT SYSTEMS.

THREATS FROM EARTH TO SATELLITES FOR ERA II • • APPROXIMATELY 15 YEARS FROM 2016 TO 2031 More nations with ERA I capability. New, sophisticated threats from the earth—i. e. lasers or pinpoint jammers which overload circuits and cause failures. Nuclear capability is introduced. Counter—counter capabilities. i. e. if a “tag-along satellite” can be eluded by simple orbit changes, new “tag-alongs” could also “home on the target” and stay with the target. Counter capability increases the cost and complexity of satellites. THREAT NATIONS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AND THREATS ARE HIGHLY PROLIFERATED VIA SALES.

THREATS FROM EARTH TO SATELLITES FOR ERA III • • • APPROXIMATELY 25 YEARS FROM 2031 TO 2056 Era of low cost, even highly affordable space activity. Nations, companies, and criminal or terrorist groups all have significant access to space. Rules, such as limited slots for geo-synchronous satellites, will be challenged. High degree of nuclear proliferation—some into space. Nearly impossible to know who is doing what and where. New, technically sophisticated threats and countermeasures, (i. e. laser defense and offense on satellites). An era of highly profitable space weapons for illegal activities on earth, high potential for technical terrorism against manned and unmanned missions.

THREATS FROM SPACE TO PEOPLE ON EARTH • This section uses the same era structure as before. • The threats include much more than satellites: i. e. ballistic missiles are the primary threat today, they fly through space so they are included in this section. • Despite our best efforts and anti-proliferation treaties, more nations and even terrorist or criminal groups have the means to participate in missile strikes. • Conventional warheads are destructive, chemical and germ warheads worse, and nuclear warheads devastate. • Similar warheads or other destructive capabilities may be stored in satellites in orbit for later use.

SPACE THREATS TO EARTH ERA I • • APPROXIMATELY 10 YEARS FROM 2007 TO 2016 Ballistic Missiles are being proliferated through dozens of countries and potentially into terrorist groups. An orbiting bomb is more difficult and expensive, but some could find this an attractive blackmail threat. A small number of missiles or orbiting bombs with nuclear capability could threaten global commerce and peace and stability, not only with their destructive use, but also with their implied threat of future devastation. A minor threat in this era could be satellite jamming of earth stations, etc. NUCLEAR THREAT REMAINS THE PRIMARY ISSUE.

SPACE THREATS TO EARTH ERA II • • • APPROXIMATELY 15 YEARS FROM 2016 TO 2031 Developed or purchased nuclear weapon proliferation could easily spread to dozens of countries or terrorist or criminal organizations. Delivery by missiles is visibly the most threatening, and makes a rogue country or organization “a superpower”. Ballistic and Cruise Missile delivery systems will proliferate to large numbers of countries and groups. We may well see a nuclear EMP electronics blackout. Direct space threats such as jammers, lasers, etc. will remain minor threats. NUCLEAR THREATS COULD SPREAD BEYOND ALL REASONABLE CONTROLS.

SPACE THREATS TO EARTH ERA III APPROXIMATELY 25 YEARS FROM 2031 TO 2056 • Nuclear threats with their means of most rapid and easy delivery will be easily manufactured and a means of high profit for many criminal activities. • Delivery by missiles fired from ships will have similar deniability as a nuclear bomb smuggled into a city. • This is an early or easily implemented source for EMP attacks against major areas, such as U. S. or Europe. • Missile attacks could be accompanied by other terrorist activities, including radioactive “dirty bombs”, etc. WILL INHUMAN PROVOCATIONS LEAD TO MAJOR, UNPRODUCTIVE RESPONSES AND CHAOS?

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS • We are not trapped in the dismal forecast above. • Solutions will come in synergistic opportunities: Cooperative Initiatives International Treaties Military Preparedness Plus human will to improve life. • Cooperative examples are the Exploration of the Moon and Mars, or others such as the 40 Year Atmospheric Re-Analysis Project and other Earth Observation initiatives. • Treaties need to be backed with broad interests and in certain areas military strength and capability.

A BETTER FUTURE • Space cooperation initiatives will assist in strengthening human ties across boundaries and extreme destructive philosophies. • The contrast between policies espoused by tyrants and terrorists will become more apparent and less tolerated by populations and individuals everywhere. • Reasonable and fair treaties will be seen to be in the main stream of human and national interests. Examples are the Missile Technology Control Regime and participation in external nuclear inspections. • We will find a better solution to the disposition of nuclear fuel waste, one that accounts for radioactive materials and prevents their misuse. • Measured military actions will enhance stability and pressure regimes and nihilistic organizations into a humanistic policy.

THE ROLE OF SPACE INITIATIVES • Space scientists and engineers will be able to influence like minded professionals and persuade them to not participate in offensive destructive projects, especially in rogue states or organizations. • Scientists and engineers who are the backbone of rogue states and organization’s offensive missile programs will be made welcome if they leave and pursue exploration or other initiatives in other countries. • Inspired young people will see a better way than tolerating murder and nihilistic philosophies. They will want to join the great adventures that mankind can offer in improving and exploring life everywhere. • Missile Defense will continue to devalue nuclear ballistic missiles and eventually cruise missiles as well. Nations will join this effort by joining missile defense initiatives and further reducing nuclear missile inventories. Other cooperative military initiatives will be joined as well.

MILESTONES • Headlines in newspapers around the world: -- Ballistic Missile and Nuclear Development Team Escapes Iran. -- Scientists and Engineers March in North Korea. -- Commercial Satellite Company Hires North Korean Engineers. -- Khan Leaves Pakistan & Joins the FBI to Track Missile Parts. -- Space Data on Global Warming Creates New Clean Auto Joint Venture in U. S. and China. • This Conference Helps…. we can all help…. Thankyou.