Dynamic of conflict Theoretical and practical approach 1

Dynamic of conflict Theoretical and practical approach 1

Conflict stages Latent conflict Conflict emergence Conflict escalation (Hurting) Stalemate De – escalation / negotiation • Dispute Settlement • Post-conflict Peace building • • • Conflict emergence • Understanding of the beginning of conflict • Beginning of open conflict • Development of open conflict • Resolution of conflict • Implementation of the agreements 2

Development of conflict Widening of conflict (on horizontal line) - Appearance of new participants - Emerges of new problems of quarrel - Differentiation of previous problems Escalation of conflict (on vertical line) - Intensification of hostile actions - Reinforcement of brutal character of activity 3

Political conflict under the coverage of territorial claims (Falkland war) • Leopoldo Fortunato Galtieri Castell • Margaret Hilda Thatcher, Baroness 4

Leopoldo Fortunato Galtieri Castelli (1926 – 2003) was an Argentine general and President of Argentina from 22 December 1981 to 18 June 1982 • In April 1982, after Galtieri had been in office for four months - his popularity was lowing • Galtieri decided to invade the lightly defended Falkland Islands, governed by the United Kingdom and subject to a longstanding Argentine territorial claim. • In Argentina the invasion became enormously popular, and the anti-junta demonstrations were replaced by patriotic demonstrations in support of Galtieri. 5

Thatcher became Prime Minister on 4 May 1979. • Arriving at 10 Downing Street, she said, in a paraphrase of the "Prayer of Saint Francis": • Where there is discord, may we bring harmony. Where there is error, may we bring truth. • Where there is doubt, may we bring faith. • And where there is despair, may we bring hope. • Thatcher's job approval rating fell to 23% by December 1980, lower than recorded for any previous Prime Minister 6

Conflict emergence • On 2 April 1982 the ruling military junta in Argentina ordered the invasion of the British-controlled Falkland Islands and South Georgia, triggering the Falklands War. The subsequent crisis was "a defining moment of her [Thatcher's] premiership". • ] At the suggestion of Harold Macmillan and Robert Armstrong, she set up and chaired a small War Cabinet (formally called ODSA, Overseas and Defense committee, South Atlantic) to take charge of the conduct of the war, • which by 5– 6 April had authorized and dispatched a naval task force to retake the islands. 7

The Falkland Islands (Spanish: Islas Malvinas) are an archipelago located in the South Atlantic Ocean on the Patagonian Shelf. 8

Controversy exists as to who first discovered the Falkland Islands, with competing Portuguese, Spanish and British claims from the 16 th century 9

The archipelago which has an area of 4, 700 square miles (12, 173 square kilometers) comprises East Falkland, West Falkland 776 smaller islands 10

Falkland Islands, 2841, Stanley, English, Falkland Islands pound 11

Real reasons of the crisis • In the period leading up to the war, and especially following the transfer of power between military dictators in late-March 1981, Argentina had been in the midst of a devastating economic crisis and large-scale civil unrest against the military junta that had been governing the country since 1976 • Admiral Jorge Anaya was the main architect and supporter of a military solution for the longstanding claim over the islands, calculating that the United Kingdom would never respond militarily 12

Real reasons of the crisis • The Galtieri government hoped to mobilize Argentines' long-standing patriotic feelings towards the islands and thus divert public attention from the country's chronic economic problems and the regime's ongoing human rights violations • On 19 March 1982 a group of Argentine scrap metal merchants (actually infiltrated by Argentine marines) raised the Argentine flag at South Georgia, an act that would later be seen as the first offensive action in the war. 13

Conflict emergence • The Royal Navy ice patrol vessel HMS Endurance was dispatched from Stanley to South Georgia in response, subsequently leading to the invasion of South Georgia by Argentine forces • On 2 April 1982, Argentine forces mounted amphibious landings of the Falkland Islands, following the civilian occupation of South Georgia on 19 March, before the Falklands War began. 14

Understanding of the beginning of conflict • The 2 April 1982 Argentine invasion, Operation Rosario, took the British by surprise. • Following the invasion on 2 April, after an emergency meeting of the Thatcher cabinet, approval was given for the formation of a task force to retake the islands. • This was backed in an emergency session of the House of Commons the next day 15

Reaction of international community • On 3 April SC of UN adopted resolution № 502 with the request to start negotiations (which passed with ten votes in support, • one against (Panama) and • four abstentions (China, the Soviet Union, Poland Spain) • British government insisted on the withdrawal of the argentine troops from islands and ceased diplomatic ties • On 5 April The whole task force eventually comprised 127 ships: 43 Royal Navy vessels, 22 Royal Fleet Auxiliary ships and 62 merchant ships (The nuclear submarine Conqueror set sail from France on 4 April, whilst the two aircraft carriers Invincible and Hermes left Portsmouth) 16

Understanding of the beginning of conflict • On 6 April, the British Government set up a War Cabinet to provide day-to-day political oversight of the campaign. • This was the critical instrument of crisis manage- ment for the British with its remit being to • "keep under review political and military developments relating to the South Atlantic, and to report as necessary to the Defense and Overseas Policy Committee. " 17

• First to arrive was the Churchillclass submarine HMS Conqueror on 19 April 1982 • (10 000 soldiers) • 13 000 km from • Great Britain • 200 miles blockade 18

The Invincible's airgroup contained 8 Sea Harrier and 12 Sea King aircraft (210 -36 m, 33 km/h) 19

A Sea Harrier FA 2 on the deck of Invincible • The Sea Harriers shot down 20 Argentine aircraft during the conflict with one loss to enemy ground fire. (Use the ski jump system) 20

Vector-nozzle-sea-harrier-jet (vector thrust nozzle – distinguishing feature of the jump jet) 21

Development of open conflict • The first naval loss was the World War II-vintage Argentine light cruiser ARA General Belgrano. The nuclear-powered submarine HMS Conqueror sank the Belgrano on 2 May. • Three hundred and twenty-three members of Belgrano's crew died in the incident. Over 700 men were rescued from the open ocean despite cold seas and stormy weather. • The losses from Belgrano totalled nearly half of the Argentine deaths in the Falklands conflict and the loss of the ARA General Belgrano hardened the stance of the Argentine government. 22

The nuclear-powered submarine HMS Conqueror sank the Belgrano on 2 May 1982 23

At sea, the paucity of the British ships' anti-aircraft defenses was demonstrated in the sinking of «HMS Ardent» on 21 May, «HMS Antelope» on 23 May (struck by two AM 39 Exocets) on 25 May along with a vital cargo of helicopters, runway-building equipment and tents. • HMS Ardent smoking after being hit, 21 May 1982 24

Escalation and resolution of conflict • On the night of 11 June 1982, after several days of painstaking reconnaissance and logistic build-up, British forces launched a brigade-sized night attack against the heavily defended ring of high ground surrounding Stanley. • A ceasefire was declared on 14 June and the commander of the Argentine garrison in Stanley, Brigade General Mario Menéndez surrendered to Major General Jeremy Moore the same day. • The resulting conflict lasted 74 days. • On October 12, 1982 a parade of the Victory was hosted in London 25

Uppsala Conflict Data Program • The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) is data collection project on organized violence housed at Uppsala University in Sweden. • The program aims to gather information on armed conflict and make it publically available online and in its annual report, “States in Armed Conflict. ” • The UCDP collects both quantitative and qualitative data on organized violence (e. g. fatality statistics, georeferenced data, armed actor and conflict descriptions) that is used by social science researchers, journalists and policymakers. 26

The program divides armed conflict into three categories: “state-based conflict”, “non-state conflict” and “one-sided violence”. • “An armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year” • War Project, which only counts conflicts where at least 1, 000 deaths have been recorded during one calendar year • Armed conflicts that reap between 25 and 999 battlerelated deaths are seen as having the intensity of a “minor” armed conflict 27

“non-state conflict” and “one-sided violence” • Non-state conflicts are those in which none of the warring parties is a state. • Examples of non-state conflicts include, the Fatah. Hamas conflict of 2006 and 2007. • One-sided violence is defined as: “The use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organized group against civilians which results in at least 25 deaths in a year”. • Examples include the Governments of Sudan, Myanmar, and Syria against civilians as well as nonstate organizations such as Al Qaeda against civilians. 28

Government • The party controlling the capital of the state. • The UCDP is concerned with who is controlling power in practice (de facto). • The UCDP is not concerned with who is the rightful holder of the power (de jure). • UCDP uses control of the capital as an indicator of the de facto government. 29

Intensity level • The intensity variable denotes what level of fighting a state-based conflict or dyad reaches in each specific calendar year. • The variable has two categories: Minor: At least 25 but less than 1000 battlerelated deaths in one calendar year. War: At least 1000 battle-related deaths in one calendar year. 30

Location • In state-based conflict “location” equals the name of the state that is being challenged by an opposition organization, and not the geographical location of the fighting. • In contrast, in one-sided violence and nonstate conflicts “location” instead refers to the state in which the geographical location of the violence took place. 31

Region Secondary supporting parties, non-warring • In the data in the UCDP states are divided into five regions: Africa, Asia, Americas, Europe and Middle East. • A secondary supporting party provides support to a primary party that somehow affects the development of the conflict. • The support given can be of several types, for instance, financial, military (short of regular troops), logistic etc. Anything relating to normal interaction between states (profits from trade, etc. ) is not considered to be support in the conflict. 32

State • A state is either an internationally recognized sovereign government controlling a specified territory, or an internationally unrecognized government controlling a specified territory whose sovereignty is not disputed by another internationally recognized sovereign government previously controlling the same territory. 33

Opposition organization Organized group • Any non-governmental formally organized group of people having announced a name for their group and using armed force to influence the outcome of the stated incompatibility. • Any group who does not have an announced name, but who uses armed force and whose violent activity meets at least one of the following organizational requirements: there must be a clear pattern of incidents which are connected, or there must be evidence that violence was planned in advance. 34

Arms • Any material means, e. g. manufactured weapons but also sticks, stones, fire, water, etc. • ‘Arms’ includes anything material, i. e. other than corporal strength and/or psychological power. • Nuclear weapons, biological weapons as well as chemical weapons are included as bombs or other explosives regardless of how they have been constructed. • The use of airplanes on 11 September 2001 also qualifies as use of armed force. 35

Battle-related deaths • All battle-related deaths are based on each coder's analysis of the particular conflict. Each battle-related death has to be verified in one way or another. • If different reports provide different estimates, an examination is made as to what source is most reliable. • If no such distinction can be made, UCDP as a rule include the lower figure given. 36

Foreign interference • - when another state or a multinational coalition openly send to the aid of one of the warring parties any quantity of their regular troops and share the aims of the party • Carrying out of traditional peacekeeping operations is not considering as participation in the conflict, but as an independent part of the overall peace process 37

Rebel groups • Groups operating from bases in the neighboring countries. • They are considered as the participants of the conflicts (in the countries in which the struggle against the current government unfolds), regardless of their nationality and place of bases 38

Data on military conflict calendar year, month and date; the location of the conflict; the underlying contradictions of the conflict; the time of conception of contradictions ; the time of the beginning of military activity; Information about the warring parties; data on the number of troops; data on the total number of casualties during the year or during the conflict; • the change in the losses of the previous year • • 39

Anatomy of conflict • • • parties in conflict sympathizers of the parties in conflict provocateurs (instigators) conciliators consultants innocent victims 40

The motives of the conflict • The motives of the conflict is the internal driving forces pushing the subjects of social interaction to the conflict • The reasons for any conflict can be reflected in the form of: • - the political preferences, • - national interests, • - goals, ideals or beliefs 41

Data on Falkland conflict • calendar year, month and date; • the location of the conflict; • the underlying contradictions of the conflict; • the time of conception of contradictions ; • 2 April – 14 June 1982 • Falkland Islands, South Georgia, the South Sandwich Islands, surrounding sea and airspace • Territorial (Political) • Britain seized the islands in 1833 42

Data on Falkland conflict • the time of the beginning • 21 April 1982 of military activity; • Britain – 127 ships • Information about the 10 000 troops warring parties; • Argentina - had stationed • data on the number of more than 10, 000 troops; on the Falklands • data on the total number of casualties during the • Altogether - 910 year or during the conflict; 43

Casualties and Losses (expenditure 1, 5 -2, 0 mln $) • • • • 649 killed 1, 657 wounded 11, 313 taken prisoner 1 cruiser 1 submarine 4 cargo vessels 2 patrol boats 1 spy trawler 25 helicopters 35 fighters 2 bombers 4 transports 25 COIN aircraft 9 armed trainers • 258 killed • 775 wounded • 115 taken prisoner • • • 2 destroyers 2 frigates 1 LSL landing ship 1 LCU amphibious craft 1 container ship • 24 helicopters • 10 fighters 44

States sympathizers of UK • The UK received political support from the Commonwealth of Nations and the European Economic Community. The EEC also provided economic support by imposing economic sanctions on Argentina. • France provided dissimilar aircraft training so Harrier pilots could train against the French aircraft used by Argentina 45

States sympathizers of UK • The United States was concerned by the prospect of Argentina turning to the Soviet Union for support, and initially tried to mediate an end to the conflict. • However, when Argentina refused the U. S. peace overtures, U. S. Secretary of State Alexander Haig announced that the United States would prohibit arms sales to Argentina and provide material support for British operations. • Both Houses of the U. S. Congress passed resolutions supporting the U. S. action siding with the United Kingdom 46

States sympathizers of UK • The U. S. provided the United Kingdom with military equipment ranging from submarine detectors to the latest missiles. • Chile gave support to Britain in the form of Intelligence about Argentine military and early warning radar. • French and British intelligence worked to prevent Argentina from obtaining more Exocets missiles on the international market 47

States supporting Argentina • Israel sold weapons and drop tanks in a secret operation in Peru. • Peru openly sent "Mirages, pilots and missiles" to Argentina during the war. Peru had earlier transferred ten Hercules transport planes to Argentina soon after the British Task Force had set sail in April 1982. • Through Libya, under Muammar Gaddafi, Argentina received 20 launchers and 60 SA-7 missiles, as well as machine guns, mortars and mines, all in all, the load of four trips of two Boeing 707 of the AAF, refueled in Recife with the knowledge and consent of the Brazilian government. • Some of these clandestine logistics operations were mounted by the Soviet Union. 48

Argentina and US • In March 1981, Galtieri visited the United States and was warmly received, as the Reagan administration viewed the regime as a bulwark against communism. National Security Advisor Richard V. Allen described Galtieri as a "majestic general“ • Galtieri believed the UK would never respond militarily and in the worst case scenario the United States would not interfere after the support given by the junta to the Central Intelligence Agency in its fight against the Sandinistas in Nicaragua 49

Galtieri destiny • Within 3 days after 14 June 1982 General Galtieri was removed from power. • In late 1983 he was arrested and charged in a military court with mismanagement of the Falklands War and violation of human rights • MC recommended Galtieri be stripped of all rank, dismissed and face a firing squad, but in 1986 he was sentenced to twelve years in prison. (In 1989 he was pardoned) 50

Local conflict • The Argentine government characterized their initial invasion as the re-occupation of their own territory, whilst • The British government saw it as an invasion of a British dependent territory. • However, neither state officially declared war and hostilities were almost exclusively limited to the territories under dispute and the local area of the South Atlantic. 51

Positive feathers for the UK 1. The UK won a military victory and the enemy was "publicly humiliated", and the international authority of the state increased. 2. The nation rallied against the explicit enemy, round the Queen, the army and the government, and the economic boom continued. 3. The government has become popular and competent in English society. 52

Positive feathers for the UK 4. Army practiced and made the necessary conclusions and became urgently modernize. 5. The Royal Navy has not been reduced and became the only grow. 6. In Argentina the junta fell, and the Peronist came to power and simply "gave "Falklands" of England began to settle its debts. 53

Positive feathers for the UK • In addition, the UK as never came close to Antarctica, as the future source of the world's critical resources (fresh water, hydrocarbons, metals, biological resources etc. ), because of which historically soon unfold fierce struggle of all the leading powers of the world. • "Falklands" war was one of the first examples of war with geo-economic framework and pursuing long-geo-strategic goal one of the world's great powers. 54

Conflict impact • The conflict had a strong impact in both countries. Patriotic sentiment ran high in Argentina, but the outcome prompted large protests against the ruling military government, which hastened its downfall. • In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher‘s government was bolstered by the successful outcome. 55

Conflict impact • The war has played an important role in the culture of both countries, and has been the subject of several books, scholarly articles, films, and songs. • Over time, the cultural and political weight of the conflict has had less effect on the British public than on that of Argentina, where the war is still a topic of discussion. 56

Implementation of agreement • Relations between the United Kingdom and Argentina were restored in 1989 following a meeting in Madrid, at which the two Governments issued a joint statement which explicitly did not change either side's position on sovereignty. • 19 October 1989 «Agreeing a Framework on Sovereignty which would allow further talks» 57

Positive features of conflict • In the United Kingdom, Margaret Thatcher's popularity increased. The success of the Falklands campaign was widely regarded as the factor in the turnaround in fortunes for the Conservative government, who had been trailing behind the SDP-Liberal Alliance in the opinion polls for months before the conflict began, but after the success in the Falklands the Conservatives returned to the top of the opinion polls by a wide margin and went on to win the following year's general election by a landslide. • Subsequently, Defense Secretary Nott's proposed cuts to the Royal Navy were abandoned. 58

Positive features of conflict • The islanders subsequently had full British citizenship restored in 1983, their lifestyle improved by investments Britain made after the war and by the liberalization of economic measures that had been stalled through fear of angering Argentina. • In 1985, a new constitution was enacted promoting self-government, which has continued to devolve power to the islanders 59

Positive and negative features of conflict • Argentina returned to a democratic government in the 1983 general election, the first free general election since 1973. • It also had a major social impact, destroying the military's image as the moral reserve of the nation that they had maintained through most of the 20 th century. • An estimated 264 British veterans and 350– 500 Argentine veterans have committed suicide since the war 60

Positive features of conflict • The countries of Latin America, seeing as the US grossly violated the agreement with Argentina, helped in the war of England, began the process of consolidation. • The junta has lost , her days were numbered. Within three days after the war end General Galtieri was forced to resign from the posts of the President and commander-in-chief. 61

Public opinion • «I don't understand, " said the American President Ronald Reagan, " why are our allies argue because of a few cold rock» . • The Argentine writer Jorge Luis Borges did call the Falkland Islands conflict «quarrel of two bald because of combs» . 62

Map of the Falkland Islands economic zone in relation to its neighbors 63

Advantages of UK • In February 2010, exploratory drilling for oil was begun by Desire Petroleum but the results from the first test well were disappointing. • Two months later, on 6 May 2010, Rockhopper Exploration announced that "it may have struck oil". Subsequent tests showed it to be a commercially viable find, an appraisal project was launched and on 14 th September 2011 Rockhopper Exploration announced plans are under way for oil production to commence in 2016 • in 2011, Falklands-flagged vessels were barred from the ports of Mercosur nations. 64

To remain British • The Falkland Islands government decided to counter Argentine claims by scheduling a referendum on the status of the islands, saying that it wanted to "send a firm message to Argentina that the islanders want to remain British". • The vote took place on 10 -11 March 2013, and Britain had said it would respect the result. Argentina had condemned the move. 65

Falkland islanders were about to vote in a referendum on whether to stay British, with a resounding yes expected. 66

Referendum results • The Falkland Islanders were asked whether or not they supported the continuation of their status as an Overseas Territory of the United Kingdom in view of Argentina's call for negotiations on the islands' sovereignty. • On a turnout of 91%, 99. 8% voted to remain a British territory, with only three votes against (1513 via 3) 67

Referendum reasons • Tensions over the status of the islands began to increase with approach of the 30 th anniversary Falklands war and the decision of the Falkland Islands government to start oil exploration in Falklands territorial waters • Do you wish the Falkland Islands to retain their current political status as an Overseas Territory of the United Kingdom? YES or NO 68

Observation • The Referendum International Observation Mission during the referendum was led by Brad Smith from the United States and included representatives from Canada, Mexico, Uruguay, Paraguay, Chile and New Zealand. • Following the declaration, British prime minister David Cameron said "the Falkland Islanders have spoken so clearly about their future, and now other countries right across the world, I hope, will respect and revere this very, very clear result. " 69

70

• В зависимости от вида военных действий, конфликты делятся на наступательные, оборонительные, маневренные и позиционные • методами использования военной силы, согласно которым они бывают скрытыми и явными. • Критериями интенсивности являются качественные параметры оружия, применяемого количество потерь и уровень разрушений, количество задействованного личного состава и использованных ресурсов, темпы решения поставленных задач, временные рамки конфликта • Масштаб военного конфликта: сроком течения – длительные и кратковременные 71

• По результатам для каждой стороны военные конфликты разделяют на успешные и неудачные. Успешными считаются те, в результате которых достигается победа над противником и полная или частичная реализация поставленных целей. Неудачные конфликты - когда одна из сторон не достигает поставленной цели, признает свое поражение и вынуждена капитулировать. 72