Dramatic Disruptions Sandy Teger and David Waks Co-Founders

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About Us: Professionally • Sandy – 18+ years with AT&T; multimedia strategy director • Dave – 13 years with Prodigy Services Company; founder and R&D director • Together as System Dynamics Inc. – 10 years as specialists in residential broadband – Consult for companies affected by residential broadband • Strategy, business economics, competitive analysis – Operate www. Broadband. Home. Central. com as industry resource • "100 BEST Undiscovered Web Sites" PC Magazine, 4/20/04 – Free monthly Report on the Broadband Home • www. bbhreport. com • Subscribers in ~100 countries – Broadband Home Labs • Integrated in our lives • Test new products Copyright © 2006 Slide 2

Some Major Disruptions • Context – Everything Digital – Widespread Broadband Penetration • Vo. IP Makes Phone Calls Free • Broadband Anywhere • TV Being Transformed • Convergence: A “Virtuous Circle” Copyright © 2006 Slide 3

US Digital TV Transition Poised In the Wings • Original date for DTV transition: Yearend 2006 – 1, 500 TV stations were to cease analog broadcasts, continuing only in digital – Widely believed it wouldn’t happen • New deadline of February 17, 2009 – Free up spectrum for services such as mobile broadband • Likely to be real “end of analog TV” – DTV sales increasing rapidly – Warning labels on analog TVs • Impact on owners of older TVs – Millions rely on Over the Air (OTA) analog broadcasts that go away – Forces them to make a decision • Obtain a (subsidized) digital-to-analog set-top converter box • Buy new digital TV receiver • Subscribe to cable or satellite Copyright © 2006 Slide 5

Broadband Way Past “Tipping Point” • US Has Major Broadband Penetration ~ 44% HH (Source IGI, May 06) – 48 million HH, was 20 million YE 2002 • Broadband is growing globally (Source: Point Topic) – Measured by broadband lines per 100 households, US ranks 15 th • Leaders are in Asia (Korea, Hong Kong) and Europe (Denmark, Netherlands, Finland) – Measured by total number of lines, US ranks first • China is second and catching up fast • Broadband being deployed by more than telcos and cable companies – Satellite services – Wild. Blue – Municipal broadband – especially Muni Wi-Fi – Community fiber – Broadband over powerline (BPL) in many trials – Broadband wireless will be next big growth area Copyright © 2006 Slide 6

Evolving Consumer Expectations: Broadband Available Any Time, Any Place Coffee Shop Hotel Walking around town In a car Train or plane Home or Office Increasing mobility Fixed Copyright © 2006 Nomadic Portable Full Mobility Slide 8

All Applications & Content on Portable Devices • • • • Telephony, PTT IM, SMS, MMS E-mail, Web PIM Location Based Svcs Media Player Camera Games Audio/Video – Radio, TV – Streamed – Conferencing Presence Service Integration E 911 Wallet … Source: Qualcomm Copyright © 2006 Slide 9

Broadband Wireless • Broadband wireless will be next big growth area – Muni Wi-Fi – examples: St. Cloud, Florida; Philadelphia – Cellular companies deploying early “broadband” services with 3 G, but limited in coverage and speed – Mobile Wi. MAX likely to trigger growth spurt • Cable operators may play a role – Deal with Sprint for voice services: enable “quadruple play” – Sprint/Nextel running trials with several “pre-Wi. MAX” technologies – Sprint & Nextel have strong 2. 5 GHz spectrum holdings, FCC requires them to “use it or lose it” • FCC starting new auctions – 3 G cellular – Broadband wireless – Wi. MAX or other technologies – Mc. Caw (Clearwire) is key insurgent player – Will MSOs partner with Sprint for broadband wireless , or acquire their own spectrum? Copyright © 2006 Slide 11

TV Is Being Transformed • “Any Content, Any Device, Any Place, Any Time” • Time Shifting – Control over when to watch particular programming – Examples: Ti. Vo, PVRs • Place Shifting – Watch your TV programming from any place in the world – Example: Slingbox • Device Shifting – Transporting content from one device to another – Examples: Mobi TV from Sprint, “Lost” at abc. com, Ti. Vo To Go • Content Shifting – Content created for one device, appears on different one – Example: Accuweather: personalized, interactive content with local TV weather broadcast • ICTV blends interactive content with live video streams • Impacts all stakeholders – Consumers, Service Providers, Content Providers, Advertisers Copyright © 2006 Slide 12

Broadband -- A Self-Perpetuating Cycle More homes with broadband access PC/CE growth / proliferation Home network growth Broadband Growth More reasons to get broadband Copyright © 2006 More devices capable of sharing Content / services growth More “eyeballs” Slide 14

New Technologies Reinforce Growth -- and Foster Disruption DSL, Cable, Wi. Fi, Wi. MAX, 4 G PC/CE growth / proliferation Home network growth Broadband Growth Movielink, Vongo, ABC. com, Vo. IP Copyright © 2006 Viiv, Vista Content / services growth 802. 11 n, Home. Plug A/V Slide 15

For More Information: www. Broadband. Home. Central. com sandy @ bb-home. com dave @ bb-home. com

For More Information • Links to some articles we’ve written on these topics – "End-to-End IP" - How Will The Telcos Survive? Part 1 (BBHR 9/26/2000) and Part 2 (BBHR 10/26/2000) -- “End-to-end IP" as a disruptive technology – Broadband: Are We Reaching "The Tipping Point"? (BBHR 5/23/2002) – Intelligent. Cities 2002 (BBHR 10/8/2002) -- the impact of Community Networks – Disruptive Technology in Action (BBHR 5/14/2003) -- impact of IP communications on voice services and high-speed Internet – Broadband Anywhere: The Extended Broadband Home (BBHR 8/21/2003) -- the spread of wireless broadband – Convergence Is Back (BBHR 5/23/2005) • Topical Index to our Website • Magazine articles and conference presentations • Subscribe to our free newsletter to stay up to date Copyright © 2006 Slide 18