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Distillation and Synthesis of Monthly Environmental Security Reports
Emerging International Environmental Security Issues for the Army Environmental Policy Institute by the The Millennium Project Jerome C. Glenn February 23, 2011
Outline • • Definition of Environmental Security Brief Introduction to The Millennium Project Conflicts and Environmental Security – Sustainability Framing Issues • • Food Crisis Water Crisis Climate Change Energy Considerations • Some additional threats, trends, and issues • Recent or Potential Changes in International Environmental Agreements • Technological Advances with Environmental Security Implications • Some New Opportunities and General Recommendations • Conclusions
1/11/11 Chinese President Hu Jintao in meeting with Defense Secretary Robert Gates urged the two militaries to deepen strategic trust. Environmental Security should be a major focus of that strategic trust.
Environmental Security is the viability for life support, with three sub-elements: 1. Preventing or repairing military damage to the environment 2. Preventing or responding to environmentally caused conflicts 3. Protecting the environment due to the moral value of the environment itself The Millennium Project has identified more than 2, 000 environmental security items since August 2002.
The Millennium Project. . . is a new kind of think tank It is global: Geographically, Institutionally, and Subject focus …established in 1996 …after a 3 -year feasibility study
UN Universities Organizations Millennium Project Corporations Governments NGOs … May become a Trans. Institution
40 Millennium Project Nodes. . . are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in: Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.
14 th Annual Report Card on the Future Global Challenges State of the Future Index Collective Intelligence Environmental Security Latin America 2030 Other Futures Research Plus 7, 000 -page CD
World Report Card Where we are winning 1. Percent of population with access to safe water 2. Adult Literacy rate (% of people ages 15 and above) 3. Percent of population enrolled in secondary school 4. Percent in least developed countries at $1. 25/day 5. Annual global population growth is falling 6. Annual GDP per capita increasing at 3% (IMF 2010) 7. Physicians per 1, 000 people 8. Internet users per 100 people - 30% world connected 9. Infant mortality is falling 10. Life expectancy is increasing 11. Percent of women in national parliaments 12. Increasing energy efficiency (use per GDP) 13. Decreasing armed conflicts - 1000+ deaths per year 14. Increasing food availability - calories per capita Where there is little change 15. Prevalence of HIV (% of population ages 15 -49) 16. Homicide rate 17. Percent of GDP for research and development Where we are losing: 18. Increasing annual CO 2 emissions 19 Increasing global surface temperature anomalies 20. Percent Voting in Elections of 15 largest countries 21. Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) 22. Fossil fuel energy consumption (% of total) 23. Levels of Corruption (15 largest countries) 24. People killed or injured in terrorist attacks Where there is uncertainty 25. Refugees 26. Countries with or planning nuclear weapons 27. Political and press freedom 28. Forest area (% of land area) 29. Total debt service (% of GNI) low and mid income 30. Emerging and reemerging infectious diseases
Conflicts and Environment UNEP reports: • Since mid– 20 th century more than 90% of major armed conflicts took place in countries that contained biodiversity hotspots and over 80% occurred directly within a hotspot • Since 1990: 18 violent conflicts driven by factors related to natural resources and/or environmental degradation • Since 1960: 40% of all intrastate conflicts have links to natural resources. • Environment-related conflicts are twice as likely to relapse in 5 years • Less than 25% of relevant peace agreements address environmental and resource management aspects Pacific Institute reports; • Water Conflict Chronology Map: more than 100 conflicts over the past 25 years were water-related • Estimated 80% of conflicts in Yemen are over water - first capital to run out of water
Half the World Continues to be Potentially Unstable International Alert in the U. K. lists 102 such vulnerable countries. The Center for Naval Analyses (U. S. ) identifies 46 countries (2. 7 bill. people) at high risk of armed conflict, and an additional 56 states (1. 2 bill. people) at risk of political instability 1. Food Crisis (increasing prices, scarcity, shrinking food reserves, decreasing water) 2. Water Crisis (falling water tables, scarcity, and pollution) 3. Energy Crisis (supply/demand especially India and China) 4. Ocean acidification and dead zones (which kills some species affecting the food chain) 5. Increasing Natural Disasters (Climate change related issues: floods, hurricanes, droughts) 6. Population concentrations (livestock waste, water pollution, etc. ) 7. Desertification 8. Failed States 9. Humans use 30 -50% more than nature can replenish and 60% of the ecosystems are gone or are used unsustainably Ø Without major changes, items 1 -9 will increase the number of refugees (political, economic, and environmental) further reducing environmental security Ø The number of countries with most acute vulnerability will increase from 17 in 2010 to 48 in 2030 (Climate Vulnerability Monitor 2010) Hence, we are not yet winning the battle for environmental security
Food Crises • FAO: World food production must increase by 70% and water by 11% by 2050 to feed 9. 1 billion • Basic food prices continue to increase around the world • Food Price Index was 214. 7 in December 2010 (highest on record) • Staple food prices could rise 130% by 2050 – IFPRI • All leading to increasing social instability and potential for water and land conflicts • World hunger – close to 1 billion people now (historic high) • Nearly 1 billion live on $1. 25/day and 3 billion on $2/day • Long-term global social conflict seems inevitable without more serious food policies, agricultural innovations, useful scientific breakthroughs, and dietary changes. • World Bank President: rising food prices were an aggravating factor of the unrest in the Middle East.
High Food Prices – Long-Term • population growth • rising affluence especially India & China • diversion of corn for biofuels • soil erosion • aquifer depletion • the loss of cropland • falling water tables and water pollution • Increasing fertilizer costs (high oil prices) • Market speculation • diversion of water from rural to urban • Increasing meat consumption • global food reserves at 25 year lows • climate change • Increasing droughts • Increasing flooding • Melting mountain glaciers reducing water flows • And eventually saltwater invading crop lands
Water Crisis • Water has to be found for an additional 2+ billion people by 2050 • Peak Fossil Water - Water tables are falling on all continents, and glacial water supplies are diminishing • 40% of humanity gets its water from sources controlled by two or more countries • By 2030 over 4 billion people could be in areas of high water stress while Asia could face a 40% gap between water supply and demand (WEF) • Nile basin treaty stalled (Burundi, Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda) implications for AFRICOM to reduce potential conflict. • Middle East: by 2100, the Euphrates (runs through Turkey, Syria and Iraq) might shrink by 30%, the Jordan River by 80%, Israel water supply might fall by 60% of 2000 levels; the Dead Sea is shrinking by 1 meter per year due to overuse of its tributaries, and climate change. Note: UN General Assembly Resolution and UN Human Rights Council affirms the right to water as legally-binding.
Climate Change • • • • Since 1970, each decade has been warmer than the preceding one 2000 -2010 has been the warmest on record - 2005 and 2010 hottest on record IPCC has consistently under-forecasted severity of impacts (Tundra melt not in latest) If business as usual, by 2060, global average temperature could rise by 4°C (7. 2°F) -- UK Met Office If the world’s politically acceptable best targets are met––the planet will still warm by 3. 5°C (6. 3°F) by the end of the century -- UNEP Currently 390 ppm, political target of 450 ppm is not sustainable; 350 ppm says NASA In July 2009, the world’s oceans reached the highest average temperature since record keeping began 130 years ago – changes in ocean currents have been measured Increased CO 2 increases ocean acidification, kills some species, affecting the food chain “Permanent” ice cover around the North Pole has thinned by more than 40% since 2004. The Chair of the IPCC noted that the agreement doesn’t consider the IPCC’s recommendation that in order to achieve the 2ºC goal, emissions should peak by 2015. Climate change can have synergies for non-linear effects - disease/agricultural patterns Environmental migrants 250 million est. by 2050; 3000 now from Tuvalu to New Zealand Therefore, “Business-as-usual” is an environmental security threat
Number of People affected by Natural Disasters All this happened in 2010: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters – leads consortium that feeds the UN data: • • 373 disasters; 296, 800 people killed 207 million people affected $109 billion estimated damages Swiss Re: $222 billion economic losses by man-made and natural disasters
The Long-range Climate Problem • Increased levels of CO 2 in the atmosphere leads to proliferation of microbes that emit H 2 S (hydrogen sulfide - a very poisonous gas) • Increased H 2 S also depletes the Ozone Layer • 1000 ppm of CO 2 is the “point of no return” • After which H 2 S is produced in huge quantities in the ocean; inexorable path to levels of H 2 S and radiation more than enough to wipe out the bulk of mammals on the land, including humans. • Peter Ward, Under a Green Sky and AAAS ref: http: //www. scientificamerican. com/article. cfm? id=impactfrom-the-deep
Shell Oil’s “Sustainable” Growth 1500 Surprise Carbon sequestration and/or re-use 1000 Geothermal Solar Exajoules Biomass Wind Nuclear Hydro 500 Gas Oil &NGL 0 1860 Coal Trad. Bio. 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Global Energy – some items • Next 25 years: World energy demand up 40 -50% • Energy efficiencies can help • But fossil fuels will dominate unless major changes, even though majority of US/UK new energy from renewables • Coal plants have to be retrofitted for carbon sequestration, pending carbon tax incentives • Maybe carbon re-use from coal plants for nanotube production • Exxon $600 million investment for biofuels from algae.
Resources-Related Geopolitical Topics North Pole Competition for Oil & Gas Ratio of Middle East Oil & Gas Increases Relative to Others Bolivia Lithium Potential Cartel China-Africa New energy alliances & resource colonialism 22
General Geopolitical Topics US - China Apollo-like climate change goal/program Climate Change Success or failure of cap & trade and Carbon Taxes Global Issue Water scarcity 23 Revolutions in the Middle East and Terrorism
If It Ain’t Fit… Retrofit
Falling Battery Prices Creates Rush in the Electric and Hybrid Car Industry Volvo Plug-in Hybrid -- battery range of 50 km before diesel/electric kicks in.
Some Interesting ideas… • • • Apollo-like Energy Program – SSP & Carbon Sequestration & Re-Use $2000 electric car 10 KW batteries from China (3/car) US/Finland Japan Plans to receive electricity from orbital Solar Power Station by 2030 Ocean-based wind power microwave relay or hydrogen production Thin-film solar flexible sheets lower costs for buildings Algal biofuels: Algae produce oils naturally. New genetic codes grow microscopic plants that produce oil that can substitute for petroleum Fuel cells for mobile phones, computers, and light buildings Nanotech for efficiencies in general and electric transmission Plants break the CO 2 bonds – CO 2 is bonded to nitrogen atoms making less stable carbamates which then can release carbon. Can we do the same and use carbon from the air make fuel? Energy efficiencies from urban systems ecology approaches with nanosensors and transceivers in everything to manage a city as a whole from transportation to security Sea Water Agriculture and Geothermal variation Solar farms to heat Stirling engines
Global Electricity Issues By 2050 an additional 2. 2 billion people will be added, 5 -7 billion of the 9 billion will live in high urban concentrations, economic growth will accelerate, 300 -425 nuclear power plants will be closed, electric cars will increase. Where will the extra electricity come from ? Fossil Fuels ? Environmental Impacts Nuclear power ? Security and Env. Impacts Alternatives from earth ? Enough for megacities? Energy from Solar Satellites ? Storage problems and cost No greenhouse gases No nuclear waste Enough for the world No storage problems
A Long-Term Energy Option: Solar Power Satellites • DOD’s National Security Space Office http: //www. acq. osd. mil/nsso/solar. htm • NASA/Marshall study • US Naval Research Laboratory R&D for SPS sandwich panel. • International Academy of Astronautics to publish SPS study in April • Japan announced its 2030 goal to establish solar power satellite system, pending next test, may reduce to 2025, low Earth orbit research satellite expected in 6 -7 years • EADS Astrium Germany - Space Divisions plan tests • India's defense research organization interest • European Space Agency studies positive
Single Individual Massively Destructive (SIMAD) • Just as we wrote lines of computer code to create software, we will be able to write lines of genetic code to create new life forms • Imagine a new virus with an incubation period of 3 -6 months created and released by a single individual in major airports around the world • Ubiquitous nano-sensor networks connected in real-time will help, but anything that can be understood can be digitized, anything digitized can potentially be hacked; hence, it is an intellectual arms race, and hence, not sufficient prevention • A new linkage of education and mental health may also be required to prevent the development of SIMAD personality. • Combinations of technology and human development should be pursued.
Some additional Env-Security Threats • IAEA Database Recorded 1, 784 Nuclear Trafficking Incidents 1993– 2009 • Waste (8. 5 million tons/year hazardous waste movement; Hong Kong receives daily about 100 containers of waste from the US and Canada; Europe ships 20 million containers of waste annually) • E-waste grows by 40 million metric tons a year (UNEP); the International Hazardous Waste Inspections Exercise at Seaports discovered that 54% of the 72 inspections had E-waste infringements; organized crime increasing in E-waste and nuclear waste • Over 50, 000 commercial chemicals to increase 85% over the next 20 years (UNEP) • Nanotech hazards are poorly understood, but improving • New kinds of weapons - nanotech methods for delivering biological agents • Lack of safety and spread of nuclear, chemical, biotechnology labs (danger from private biowarfare and genetic engineering labs) • Increasing orbital space debris threatens access to space (US-Russian sat collision, China’s ASAT)
Some Environmental Security Trends • • • Militaries are increasingly called upon to assist in complex human and environmentrelated disasters and other non-traditional military roles Synergies among and enforcement of International environmental treaties; e. g. , meeting of Basel, Rotterdam, and Stockholm Conventions Parties New Arctic focus (Denmark Command, Russia Special Unit, Nordic-Baltic Alliance) Expansion of polluter-pays principle, and environmental liability and redress actions Increased international protection of the environment and “common spaces” Evolution of nation-centered to more global-centered security Increasing attention to the precautionary principle versus reactive actions International “coalitions of the willing” negotiating international treaties “Competition” for local environmental, energy, and emissions reduction strategies Increasing participation of civil society in the design of policies; alliances among private companies, govs, NGOs and IOs to increase eco-efficiency • Environmental diplomacy for conflict prevention • Improving analytical tools for environmental assessment; hence, more accountability • New watchdog bodies
Some additional Env-Security Issues • Sovereignty vs. human rights and environmental security • Acceleration of change and inter-linkage makes regulatory systems too slow: Nanotechnology, Artificial biology, Chemical compounds, Geoengineering • No treaty to protect natural resources during armed conflict • No permanent international authority to monitor violations and to address liability and redress claims for environmental damage in those situations [Protocol 1 of the Geneva Conventions contains only generic text on protecting the natural environment] • No agreement on definitions for “widespread, ” “long-lasting, ” and “severe” or a standard definition of what constitutes a “conflict resource” or illegal resource exploitation and trade. • No international legal instruments for internal conflicts [Majority of today’s conflicts are internal] • No international court on environmental crimes
Recent Changes in International Environmental Agreements • Convention on Cluster Munitions entered into force in August 2010 • Stockholm Convention (persistent organic chemicals) updated with 9 new chemicals (in addition to 12 already listed); evaluation mechanisms, compliance mechanism expected for 2011 • The “Cancún Agreements” for GHG emissions for Kyoto Protocol • Rotterdam Convention (hazardous chemical trade) on Prior Informed Consent (PIC) updated with tributyltin compounds in Annex III • International Renewable Energy Agency (IREA) July 2010 • Biodiversity - protection and monitoring agreements • EU restrictions on nano-products and industrial pollution
Potential changes in International Environmental Agreements • Biological Weapons Convention (enforcement, new threats, and codes of conduct expected to be addressed at 2011 conference) • Preventing WMD Terrorism: UN Security Council Resolution 1540 Assessment and Potential Revision • International Criminal Court (ICC): war crimes and environmental damage during armed conflict • Banning some nonlethal riot-control agents • European Parliament Resolution for Global Ban of DU Weapons • Proposals for establishing liability and redress mechanisms for environmental destruction in conflict-related situations • international court on environmental crimes and “rights of Earth”
Number of countries Major Environmental Agreements
Technological Advances with Environmental Security Implications • • Faster, more robust sensors/detectors Wearable energy production and sensors Faster, less costly virus detection systems Nanotech applications for clean-up operations Advances in PV with Bio. Mimicry falling costs Rare earth seabed mining hydrothermal vents Writing genetic code like computer code
The World is in a Race Between implementing ever-increasing ways to improve the human condition and the seemingly ever-increasing complexity and scale of global problems. Collective Intelligence can help Win the Race
Collective Intelligence • • • It is an emergent property from synergies among • data/info/knowledge • software/hardware • experts and others with insight that continually learns from feedback to produce (nearly) just in time knowledge for better decisions than these elements acting alone.
Each can change the other
The collective intelligence includes 5 Expert Groups to support the Situation Room: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Climate Science Green Tech Energy Policy Integration Adaptation www. gccsr. org
Global Climate Change Situation Current Situation Desired Situation 393 PPM Atmospheric CO 2 Mountain Ice Melting rate Forecasts temp change range Country target pledges Abrupt Climate Change Policies to address the gap 350 -450 PPM Atmospheric CO 2 Reduced Mountain Ice Melting rate Plausible desirable temp change Required country targets Carbon Tax Cap & Trade Import Tax Green Growth Technologies to address the gap Alternative Energy Alternative Agriculture Improved Standards Adaptation to address the forecasts Resilience Teams Migration policies Coastal Evacuation Plans Work/Life Style Changes
SCANNING TEMPLATE RSS FEEDS WEBSITES FUTURE WHEELS CLOUDS DRUPAL SHELL PUBLIC & EXPERT WIKI COHERE (IMPORTS COMPENDIUM) REAL-TIME DELPHI FEDERATION SERVER GLOBAL FEDERATION SERVER HARDWARE/ SOFTWARE ENVIRONMENT ENERGY ‣ ‣ ‣ HEALTH GROUPS OF EXPERTS DATA/ INFORMATION/ KNOWLEDGE COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE SYSTEM FOR PMO’S EWS of Kuwait ‣ ‣ ‣ EXPERT JUDGMENTS SIMULATIONS/ MODELS BRIEFING SHEETS ISSUES OVERVIEWS CONTENT ASSESSED BY EWS STAFF; (RSS FEEDS, WEBSITES, ETC).
Some Suggestions • Create a climate change collective intelligence system for DOD’s current and potential adaptation and mitigation (from Net-Zero to body energy systems) • R&D initiatives to explore to further sustainability • Meat without growing animals • Saltwater agriculture to reduce fresh water demand • Solar power satellite and wireless transmission • Peace Agreements should consider environment and resources • Improve harmonization of nanosensor networks and “spiderbots” (bio, chemical, nuclear, etc. sensors) with international counterparts • Improve international training and cooperation for resilience for large-scale complex disasters (pandemics, floods, hurricanes, famine, failed states, etc. )
1/11/11 Chinese President Hu Jintao in meeting with Defense Secretary Robert Gates urged the two militaries to deepen strategic trust. Environmental Security should be a major focus of that strategic trust.
China’s Instability Factors 1. China’s water pollution, falling water tables, and receding Himalayan snow caps 2. Energy supply and distribution 3. Rich/poor urban/rural gap protests 4. Conflicts with Muslim secessionists in the oil northwest • 1 -4 increase instability, slow China’s economic growth making it unable to keep employment growth which affects stability
Some Conclusions • We are not yet winning the battle for environmental security • “Business-as-usual” is an environmental security threat • There are many options to improve our environmental security • Environmental security should be a major focus of US-China strategic trust. (US-China agreement to create a joint program to address climate change).
For further information Jerome C. Glenn The Millennium Project 4421 Garrison Street, NW, Washington, D. C. 20016 USA +1 -202 -686 -5179 phone/fax [email protected] ORG www. Stateofthe. Future. org