Скачать презентацию Disclaimer The material in these slides were developed Скачать презентацию Disclaimer The material in these slides were developed

c5c6e4c436183c0312509a7f4b714560.ppt

  • Количество слайдов: 88

Disclaimer: The material in these slides were developed over time and represents Dr. Holt’s Disclaimer: The material in these slides were developed over time and represents Dr. Holt’s personal views and approach to TOC. It is not the view of Washington State University nor TOCICO. It may be dated, incomplete or absolutely wrong. While the text and figures in this presentation are helpful to facilitate teaching and discussion of these topics, without the words that go with the slides, the presentation is not complete and may not even make sense. This material is made available in the public domain as a service. Individuals may use this material as resources to teach their own TOC review seminars as long as they give reference to the source. There is no promise nor expectation that these materials are either necessary or sufficient to pass any of the TOCICO certification exams. Anyone using these materials should continue to study from the many other sources of excellent TOC literature available. In many cases, common knowledge is included here without reference. If you would like to improve any of these files, please do so. Your contribution will be included in future postings. Dr Holt. Theory of Constraints Fundamental Exam Review TOC Thinking Processes Segment James R. Holt, Ph. D. , PE Professor [email protected] edu http: //www. engrmgt. wsu. edu/ Engineering & Technology © Washington State University-2010 1 Management

TOCICO Segmented Fundamentals Exam Fundamentals Certificate Multiple Choice Exam (Identify, Exploit, Subordinate, Elevate, Go TOCICO Segmented Fundamentals Exam Fundamentals Certificate Multiple Choice Exam (Identify, Exploit, Subordinate, Elevate, Go to Step 1) Fundamentals Certificate of TOC Philosophy • Inherent Potential • Inherent Simplicity • Inherent Win-Win • Five Focusing Steps • Three Questions Fundamentals Certificate of TOC Thinking Processes Fundamentals Certificate of TOC Applications TOC Finance & Measures • Conflict Cloud • DBR • Negative Branch • Project Management • Ambitious Target • T, I, OE • PQ Type Problem • Replenishment © Washington State University-2010 2

Topics in TOC Thinking Process • Cause and Effect • Evaporating Cloud • Surfacing Topics in TOC Thinking Process • Cause and Effect • Evaporating Cloud • Surfacing Assumptions • Invalidating Assumptions • Negative Branch Reservation • Overcoming Obstacles (PRT) • Categories of Legitimate Reservation • Layers of Resistance © Washington State University-2010 3

TOC Thinking Process Elements • Two types of Logic (in Natural Language) Sufficiency Logic TOC Thinking Process Elements • Two types of Logic (in Natural Language) Sufficiency Logic § If …, Then …. § In order to …, There must be …. Necessary Logic § Logical Causality Tools used to Answer the three questions: • What to Change? • What to Change to? • How to Cause the Change? § TOC is a Systemic Thinking Process. • There a set of rules to guide and check validity. • Could be called “Visual Thinking”. © Washington State University-2010 4

Everyone Can Think • Goal: Lower the Ball yet Minimize: Y subject to: (X-1)^2+(Y-8)^2<=24 Everyone Can Think • Goal: Lower the Ball yet Minimize: Y subject to: (X-1)^2+(Y-8)^2<=24 (X-3)^2+(Y-8)^2<=14 (X-5)^2+(Y-8)^2<=2 (X-7)^2+(Y-8)^2<=22 (X-9)^2+(Y-8)^2<=26 Y-> keep it attached. © Washington State University-2010 X-> 5

The Real World My View of my World © Washington State University-2010 6 The Real World My View of my World © Washington State University-2010 6

Thinking Time • We all think! It’s what we do! • Our minds are Thinking Time • We all think! It’s what we do! • Our minds are like CPUs. They keep on running and running … • We feel uncomfortable if we don’t have thoughts in our head. § That’s why junk TV still survives. • We feel uncomfortable if we start thinking the wrong thoughts § That’s why there are magazines in Doctor’s offices! © Washington State University-2010 7

Thinking Experiment • Get out a pencil and paper. • Wait for the starting Thinking Experiment • Get out a pencil and paper. • Wait for the starting signal. • Then, Work really hard at not thinking for One Minute! GO! © Washington State University-2010 8

QUICK! • Write down every thought you had in the last minute! • Jot QUICK! • Write down every thought you had in the last minute! • Jot down a word to catch the thought you had • Capture as many as possible. © Washington State University-2010 9

How Many Thoughts did you have in 1 Minute? In the production world, we How Many Thoughts did you have in 1 Minute? In the production world, we would call recurring thoughts RE-WORK! Probable # How many of those thoughts have you had before? 40%, 60%, 80%? 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 Number of thoughts © Washington State University-2010 10

Improving our Mental Throughput • We need to increase our mental effectiveness • We Improving our Mental Throughput • We need to increase our mental effectiveness • We need to tie together the stray pieces so we don’t have to deal with individual thoughts • We need to get the whole picture, solve it, and move on. © Washington State University-2010 11

What is this? © Washington State University-2010 12 What is this? © Washington State University-2010 12

Jonathan’s Family © Washington State University-2010 13 Jonathan’s Family © Washington State University-2010 13

Thinking Process Tools • The Basic Set of Thinking Process Tools Include: § Current Thinking Process Tools • The Basic Set of Thinking Process Tools Include: § Current Reality Tree § Evaporating Cloud All of these tools § Future Reality Tree § Negative Branch Reservation are Scrutinized by the § Pre-Requisite Tree Categories of § Transition Tree Legitimate • Derivatives Tools: Reservation. § Three Cloud Approach § Chronic Conflict Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam § Layers of Resistance © Washington State University-2010 14

For Fun…! • In order to understand the function and power of the Thinking For Fun…! • In order to understand the function and power of the Thinking Process Tools… • Let’s examine a Thinking Process Example. § One that is fairly well known by most people § One that is not well solved by most people Marital Strife © Washington State University-2010 15

First the Approach: The Thinking Process What to Change? UDEs Find the cause of First the Approach: The Thinking Process What to Change? UDEs Find the cause of the Un. Desirable Effects - UDEs. Change (Remove) the Core Problem. UDEs UDEs Core Problem © Washington State University-2010 Arrows are Logical Connections are Tail Head: “If …, Then …. ” 16

Find What’s Blocking the Solution What to Change To? Necessary Condition Goal Prerequisite Arrows Find What’s Blocking the Solution What to Change To? Necessary Condition Goal Prerequisite Arrows are Logical Connections are Head Tail: “In Order to …, Must have …. ” Injection that invalidates the assumption Necessary Condition Prerequisite Assumptions that explain the necessary Thinking Process elements included connection. in the Fundamentals Exam © Washington State University-2010 17

Achieving the Solution How to Cause the Change? DE DE DE Key Action © Achieving the Solution How to Cause the Change? DE DE DE Key Action © Washington State University-2010 18

Marital Strife Un. Desirable Effects Lack of Affection Lack of Trust Infidelity Unequal Workload Marital Strife Un. Desirable Effects Lack of Affection Lack of Trust Infidelity Unequal Workload Little Support One Carries Excessive Load Frequent Disagreements Lack of Compassion Difference of Opinion © Washington State University-2010 19

Story - Trust 1. My spouse doesn’t come home when I expect him (her). Story - Trust 1. My spouse doesn’t come home when I expect him (her). This is happening more and more. The stories seem to be weaker and weaker. I want to trust my spouse. But I don’t want to be hurt. My spouse feels free from my bondage I feel good about my marriage I don’t get hurt Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam I trust my spouse at all times I don’t trust my spouse © Washington State University-2010 20

Story - Support 2. My spouse is deeply involved in ______. He/she expects me Story - Support 2. My spouse is deeply involved in ______. He/she expects me to support him/her by taking care of _____ while he/she is gone. I don’t mind doing it, but it leaves me little time for my own hobbies. My spouse can do his/her own thing Give lots of support I have time for myself Give little support We use our time well Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam © Washington State University-2010 21

Story-Workload 3. My spouse is in a stressful job and at a critical point Story-Workload 3. My spouse is in a stressful job and at a critical point in his/her career. It seems like this “critical point” is getting longer and longer. In the mean time, I have to do my job and hold down the domestic duties too! We both Achieve I survive my Job We balance our domestic workload My spouse gets ahead Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam © Washington State University-2010 We have unequal workload 22

Generic Conflict (a consolidated Evaporating Cloud) 1. Feel Good 2. Use Time Effective 3. Generic Conflict (a consolidated Evaporating Cloud) 1. Feel Good 2. Use Time Effective 3. Achieve Happy Marriage 1. Spouse freedom 2. Spouse does own thing 3. Spouse gets ahead My Spouse is Happy I am Happy 1. I’m not hurt 2. Time for me 3. I Survive Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam 1. Trust 2. Support 3. Unequal work My spouse does what he/she wants My spouse doesn’t get what he/she wants © Washington State University-2010 1. Lack of Trust 2. Lack of Support 3. Balanced work 23

What to Change? Core Conflict Problem Core Often, my spouse takes second place I What to Change? Core Conflict Problem Core Often, my spouse takes second place I am often slighted We have different goals There is pressure to give my spouse does what he/she wants There is pressure not to give what he/she wants Our wants are different The things my spouse wants My Spouse needs are important to be happy to our marriage We want I not happy unless a Happy my spouse is happy Marriage I need to be happy © Washington State University-2010 I have real needs My personal feelings are important 24

The Current Reality Tree Results of the Core Conflict Infidelity Loss of trust Lack The Current Reality Tree Results of the Core Conflict Infidelity Loss of trust Lack of Affection Lack of Compassion Time Excessive burdens continues Unequal workload Things need to be done Different people have different levels of importance Lack of support Frequent arguments Different Opinions We have different goals © Washington State University-2010 25

 A Potential Future Desirale Effects (DEs) We have a close We have complete A Potential Future Desirale Effects (DEs) We have a close We have complete confidence relationship We share the workload We support each other Committed to each other Caring Relationship © Washington State University-2010 We share our burdens We rarely disagree on important matters We really understand each other 26

Starting Injection My spouse and I share common goals, objectives and direction in the Starting Injection My spouse and I share common goals, objectives and direction in the important aspects of our lives. © Washington State University-2010 27

Start of the Future We are working towards our common goals/direction Spouse is working Start of the Future We are working towards our common goals/direction Spouse is working to our common goals My spouse works towards spouse’s goals I’m working to our common goals We have common goals, objectives and direction in the important aspects of My Spouse our lives. needs to I need to be Happy I not happy unless my spouse is happy We want a Happy Marriage © Washington State University-2010 I work toward my goals My personal feelings are important 28

More Actions Needed We have complete confidence We share our burdens We rarely disagree More Actions Needed We have complete confidence We share our burdens We rarely disagree We share the workload We have a close relationship We support each other We really understand each other ? ? We have a Caring Relationship ? We are working towards our common goals/direction © Washington State University-2010 29

A Possible Nice Future Reality Tree What to Change to? We have complete confidence A Possible Nice Future Reality Tree What to Change to? We have complete confidence in each other We have a close relationship We share a common set of moral virtues We share our burdens We rarely disagree We have good communication We make it a point to communicate (good & bad) We share the We support each other workload We really Caring Relationship understand each other We are working towards our common goals/direction © Washington State University-2010 We realize we need each other to reach our common goals 30

Negative Branch Reservation The Good Side The Bad Side My spouse’s goals are achieved. Negative Branch Reservation The Good Side The Bad Side My spouse’s goals are achieved. I can’t achieve Most of my my goals spouse’s goals are our common goals I’m working to I’m not working our common on my goals My spouse take a lot works I am very of time We have common goals, towards objectives and direction in the busy spouse’s important aspects of our lives. goals Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam © Washington State University-2010 31

Negative Branch Reservation The Good Side The Bad Side My spouse’s goals are achieved. Negative Branch Reservation The Good Side The Bad Side My spouse’s goals are achieved. I feel good about I can’t achieve Most of my my progress my goals spouse’s goals are our common goals I work on our goals I’m working to I’m not working AND my goals our common on my goals My spouse take a lot works I am very We have common goals, I work on of time towards objectives and direction in the busy things I spouse’s I finally important aspects of our lives. value goals prioritize Thinking Process elements included my life in the Fundamentals Exam © Washington State University-2010 32

OK, Injections, But HOW? How to Cause the Change? We realize we need each OK, Injections, But HOW? How to Cause the Change? We realize we need each other to reach our common goals We make it a point to communicate (good & bad) My spouse works towards spouse’s goals Create the Pre. Requisite Tree (Ambitious Target Tree). Practice on this Injection We share a common set of moral virtues We have common goals, objectives and direction in the important aspects of our lives. © Washington State University-2010 I work toward my goals I finally prioritize my life 33

We share a common set of moral virtues Obstacles Preventing Intermediate Objectives It’s a We share a common set of moral virtues Obstacles Preventing Intermediate Objectives It’s a gray world out there. (I can’t tell right from wrong) We don’t want to change. Values change according to the circumstances. We have different backgrounds. Our desires differ. We both enjoy some moral indiscretions. Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam © Washington State University-2010 34

We share a common set of moral virtues Obstacles Preventing Intermediate Objectives It’s a We share a common set of moral virtues Obstacles Preventing Intermediate Objectives It’s a gray world (can’t tell right from wrong) We agree on common virtues We don’t want to change We are willing to work on this Values change according to the circumstances We agree on a common virtues We have different backgrounds We really know each other Our desires differ We share a set of common goals We both enjoy some moral indiscretions We live our set of virtues in all cases Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam © Washington State University-2010 35

Sequencing the solution (Structure of the PRT) Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Sequencing the solution (Structure of the PRT) Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam We share a common set of moral virtues Its hard to tell right from wrong We live our set of virtues in all cases We agree on a common virtues We are different We enjoy our indiscretions Our desires differ We share a set of common goals We really know each other We don’t talk We really communicate We don’t want to much admit error We subordinate We recognize ourselves to each other own frailties © Washington State University-2010 36

Putting the Intermediate Objectives Into Place • The Pre. Requisite Tree exposed the Intermediate Putting the Intermediate Objectives Into Place • The Pre. Requisite Tree exposed the Intermediate Objectives (Milestones) needed for “How to Cause the Change? ” • But, How to We actually Get there? • How will, ‘We Really Communicate’? • For this, the Transition Tree gives the Step-by-Step Approach to getting there. We don’t talk We really communicate We don’t want to much admit error We subordinate We recognize ourselves to each other own frailties © Washington State University-2010 37

Working Upwards on a Transition Tree Spouses can be a significant help and support Working Upwards on a Transition Tree Spouses can be a significant help and support for dealing with problems We recognize (more and more of) our own frailties We generally know about each other’s mistakes that we try to hide There are (and should be) few secrets between spouses We don’t talk much We really communicate We recognize our own frailties We want to improve We, each, admit (confidentially) to some of our problems that we wish to eliminate We, each of us, try to hide our mistakes We don’t want to admit error We want We subordinate others to ourselves to each respect us other © Washington State University-2010 Mistakes are inevitable We are mortal People rarely respect people who make a lot of mistakes 38

Working Upwards on a We Transition Tree subordinate ourselves (more and <feed back loop Working Upwards on a We Transition Tree subordinate ourselves (more and more) to each other Real love comes from sacrificing self for the benefit of others. We are willing to do some things that show love to our spouse We don’t talk much We We really communicate Loved each other We recognize our in own frailties the past We need cooperation (give and take) from both sides We want to improve It is easier to love when loved. We, each, accept we will do more things for each other than we are currently doing We need to resolve some problems on both sides Mistakes are inevitable Our marriage has some strife caused by each of us. We don’t want to We desire to love each other admit error even more than we do now We both have made some We subordinate mistakes ourselves to each other © Washington State University-2010 39

Working Upwards on a Transition Tree We are very patient and listen without judgment. Working Upwards on a Transition Tree We are very patient and listen without judgment. Neither of us dominates the discussion (for too long) We need to talk more We don’t talk much We really communicate (more and more) We talk frequently about our successes together We talk frequently about our challenges We each mention three good things that are happening in our lives We really communicate We subordinate ourselves (more and more) to each other We dedicate time to spend with each other We each mention three problems that we want to improve. We don’t want to admit error We recognize We subordinate more and We want to We recognize our more) of our own frailties improve We don’t talkourselves to each much other own frailties © Washington State University-2010 We both have topics of interest to each other 40

Working Upwards on a Transition Tree We really communicate (more and more) We each Working Upwards on a Transition Tree We really communicate (more and more) We each mention three good things that are happening in our lives We each mention three problems that we want to improve. We, each, admit (confidentially) to some of our problems that we wish to eliminate We really We don’t communicate talk much We recognize our own frailties We don’t want to admit error We subordinate ourselves to each other © Washington State University-2010 We are very patient and listen without judgment. We dedicate time to spend with each other 41

The Strategic/Tactic Plan for Marriage S. Marital Bliss T. Love Each Other S. Focus The Strategic/Tactic Plan for Marriage S. Marital Bliss T. Love Each Other S. Focus on the Other T. Have Common Goals S. Get Along T. Accept Each Other Communication Forgiveness S. Trust Each Other S. Spouse Loves Me T. Share Moral Code T. Take Actions to cause Spouse to love me Fidelity Shared Responsibility © Washington State University-2010 Work at Marriage 42

The Evaporating Cloud B. My Need D. What I Want C. Other’s Need D’. The Evaporating Cloud B. My Need D. What I Want C. Other’s Need D’. What the Others Want A. The Goal Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam © Washington State University-2010 43

Creating the Evaporating Cloud 1. What is it that I Want (that I’m having Creating the Evaporating Cloud 1. What is it that I Want (that I’m having trouble getting)? D. What I Want © Washington State University-2010 44

Creating the Evaporating Cloud 1. What is it that I Want (that I’m having Creating the Evaporating Cloud 1. What is it that I Want (that I’m having trouble getting)? D. What I Want D’. What the Others Want 2. What is it that the Others Want (that I don’t want them to have)? © Washington State University-2010 45

Creating the Evaporating Cloud 3. Why do I want what I want? What Need Creating the Evaporating Cloud 3. Why do I want what I want? What Need am I trying to fulfill? 1. What is it that I Want (that I’m having trouble getting)? B. My Need D. What I Want D’. What the Others Want 2. What is it that the Others Want (that I don’t want them to have)? © Washington State University-2010 46

Creating the Evaporating Cloud 3. Why do I want what I want? What Need Creating the Evaporating Cloud 3. Why do I want what I want? What Need am I trying to fulfill? 1. What is it that I Want (that I’m having trouble getting)? B. My Need D. What I Want C. Other’s Need D’. What the Others Want 4. Why do the Others want what they want? What Need do they have? 2. What is it that the Others Want (that I don’t want them to have)? © Washington State University-2010 47

Creating the Evaporating Cloud 3. Why do I want what I want? What Need Creating the Evaporating Cloud 3. Why do I want what I want? What Need am I trying to fulfill? 5. What Goal do we mutually share? Why are we still arguing? 1. What is it that I Want (that I’m having trouble getting)? B. My Need D. What I Want C. Other’s Need D’. What the Others Want A. The Goal Reading the Cloud: In order to I must have . 4. Why do the Others want what they want? What Need do they have? 2. What is it that the Others Want (that I don’t want them to have)? © Washington State University-2010 48

Communicating the Evaporating Cloud 4. Point out that you also have a significant Need. Communicating the Evaporating Cloud 4. Point out that you also have a significant Need. 1. Start the Mutual Goal. It is common ground. Both interested. 5. And you WANT to meet your Need as well. B. My Need D. What I Want C. Other’s Need D’. What the Others Want A. The Goal Reading the Cloud: In order to I must have . 2. Recognize you understand the Other’s Need must be meet to reach the Goal. 3. Acknowledge the Other side Wants to act on meeting their Need. 49 © Washington State University-2010

Let’s Do Some Examples B. Why I Want It D. What I Want (to Let’s Do Some Examples B. Why I Want It D. What I Want (to do) C. Why the Other Side Wants What They Want D’. What the Other Side Wants A. The Goal Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam © Washington State University-2010 50

Let’s Do Some Examples STUDENT EXAMPLE D. Supplier makes the mold C. Insure the Let’s Do Some Examples STUDENT EXAMPLE D. Supplier makes the mold C. Insure the quality of the product A. Get the Customer order B. Make the offer attractive to the customer D’. Customer makes the Mold Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam © Washington State University-2010 51

Let’s Do Some Examples STUDENT EXAMPLE Because: Money is the ONLY motivator Because: Motivated Let’s Do Some Examples STUDENT EXAMPLE Because: Money is the ONLY motivator Because: Motivated employees deliver more profit B. Motivate better Performance A. Make more Profit C. Control Expenses Because: Expenses subtract from profit D. Pay High Salaries Because: This will create conflict with the team. Salaries are fixed. D’. Don’t pay High Salaries Because: Salaries are a significant part of Thinking Process elements included expenses in the Fundamentals Exam © Washington State University-2010 52

Evaporating the Evaporating Cloud Assumption: All machines must be keep busy all the time. Evaporating the Evaporating Cloud Assumption: All machines must be keep busy all the time. Assumption: We are measured upon our Production Level A. Manage Production Effectively Assumption: Our profits are not high. Customers demand on-time delivery. B. Produce a Lot C. Keep Costs and Delivery in Control D. Increase the Work-In. Process Assumption: We can’t increase WIP and Decrease WIP at the D’. Decrease same time. the Work-In. Process Assumption: WIP is expensive. High WIP delays flow time. © Washington State University-2010 53

There is an Injection for Every Conflict • Arrow • A B • A There is an Injection for Every Conflict • Arrow • A B • A C • B D • C D’ • D / D’ Assumption Productive Cost Effective Busy Machines Expensive WIP Can’t do Both Injection Deliver Max Capacity Price on Value Keep Constraint 100% Throughput Focus Buffer Constraint only Chosen Injection: Focus on the Capacity Constrained Resource. Release work to the system at the rate of the Capacity Constrained Resource a Buffer Time in Advance (no sooner, no later). Use Buffer Management to improve the system. © Washington State University-2010 54

Sometimes TOC Solutions Are Counter Intuitive • DBR: To get more out, put less Sometimes TOC Solutions Are Counter Intuitive • DBR: To get more out, put less in. • CCPM: To finish project sooner, delay the Start. • CCPM: To be safer, remove the safety. • Replenishment: To get your products quicker to the customer, store them farther away. • To Solve the Conflict, Ignore the conflict. • To Make More Money, Sell at below Cost. If you can’t find an injection, then just do what is opposite of what everyone else is doing (and then do whatever it takes to make it work). © Washington State University-2010 55

Negative Branch Reservation Practice • Story Line. Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Negative Branch Reservation Practice • Story Line. Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam § I just had an exposure to the Negative Branch Reservation Tool of the TOC Thinking Process. § I can remember parts of it (the Good Side, the Bad Side part sticks out). § The class instructor now tells us to make a Negative Branch Reservations as an in class quiz. • Assignment. § Draw the Negative Branch Reservation and the results of the trimming Injection. © Washington State University-2010 56

Negative Branch Reservation The Good Side The Bad Side . . . I draw Negative Branch Reservation The Good Side The Bad Side . . . I draw a NBR Tree Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam © Washington State University-2010 . 57

We might Miss it. I Won’t be alone We might learn from Each other We might Miss it. I Won’t be alone We might learn from Each other Negative Branch Reservation The Good Side I will look good! I Could The Bad Side look bad. Two idiots are better than one I learn better how to do the NBR Get Help from Each other My NBR tree may not look good Practice I draw a NBR Tree Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam © Washington State University-2010 I might be called to present I’m not too good at the NBR 58

Pre. Requisite Tree Practice • The AMBITIOUS TARGET: § To Learn the Evaporating Cloud, Pre. Requisite Tree Practice • The AMBITIOUS TARGET: § To Learn the Evaporating Cloud, the Negative Branch Reservation and PRT (Ambitious Target) Tree in the next half hour. § What are the Obstacles? § What are the Injections? © Washington State University-2010 59

Learn EC, NBR, PRT in 30 Mins Obstacles Preventing Intermediate Objectives . . Thinking Learn EC, NBR, PRT in 30 Mins Obstacles Preventing Intermediate Objectives . . Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam © Washington State University-2010 60

Learn EC, NBR, PRT in 30 Mins Obstacles Preventing We are preoccupied. Intermediate Objectives Learn EC, NBR, PRT in 30 Mins Obstacles Preventing We are preoccupied. Intermediate Objectives Full Time Call Concentration We are sleepy (after lunch) Coffee Too many calls Switch off (no distractions) Details unknown to us We Know the Details Not enough time Plenty of time No writing materials Write on White Board Not willing to accept learning We paid for this class! Not motivated. I really want to do this Difficult, complex, hard With the right materials, this is easy! Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam © Washington State University-2010 61

Sequencing the solution (Structure of the PRT) Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Sequencing the solution (Structure of the PRT) Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam I learn the EC, NBR, PRT in 30 Mins . . . © Washington State University-2010 62

Categories of Legitimate Reservation Used to Scrutinize All Logic Trees • First: Clarity • Categories of Legitimate Reservation Used to Scrutinize All Logic Trees • First: Clarity • Second: Entity Existence Causality • Third Cause Insufficiency Additional Cause Reversal Predicted Effect Tautology The Effect The Cause This simple set of rules, which compiles all the key elements necessary and sufficient for anyone to validate or invalidate logic, is one of Eliyhau M. Goldratt’s significant contribution to thinking. © Washington State University-2010 63

Resistance to Change • Why don’t People Change? § Resistance to change is a Resistance to Change • Why don’t People Change? § Resistance to change is a good thing. It prevents most un-needed changes. § People resist because they don’t understand the value of the change and / or see significant negative branches without a way to deal with them. § There are six basic layers of resistance and six methods to overcome them. © Washington State University-2010 64

Layers of Resistance • • • Layer 1. Disagree on the problem § Solution: Layers of Resistance • • • Layer 1. Disagree on the problem § Solution: Agree on the problem (CRT) Layer 2. Disagree on the direction of the solution § Solution: Agree on the direction of the solution (EC) Layer 3. Disagree that the solution solves the problem. § Solution: Agree that the solution solves the problem (FRT) Layer 4. Yes, But, there are potential Negative consequences. § Solution: Agree that the solution will not lead to any significant negative effects (NBR) Layer 5. Yes. But, there are obstacles to implementing the solution. § Solution: Agree on the way to overcome any obstacles that might block or distort implementation of the solution (PRT) Layer 6. Unverbalized fears § Solution: Overcome Unverbalized fears (TT) © Washington State University-2010 65

Categories of Legitimate Reservation: CLR – Clarity Expressing logic visually gives the opportunity for Categories of Legitimate Reservation: CLR – Clarity Expressing logic visually gives the opportunity for scrutiny often missed when voiced only. This is a pretty little girls school This is a small school for girls A School only for Pretty Girls? Or, is it a Pretty School for young girls? Or, just a very Little School? Could it be a school for one particularly Pretty Girl (you missed the apostrophe)? Are there boys there too? Does the building look particularly nice? What is the enrollment? © Washington State University-2010 66

CLR – Entity Existence A brand new Lexus costs $15, 000 Operating costs of CLR – Entity Existence A brand new Lexus costs $15, 000 Operating costs of the car are of little concern The exterior appearance of the car doesn’t matter There is free maintenance for 100, 000 miles Entity Existence Reservation: “Do these things really exist in your world? ” © Washington State University-2010 67

CLR – Causality The Effect I receive 20% interest I open a Savings Account CLR – Causality The Effect I receive 20% interest I open a Savings Account The Causality: Show me how the parts in the Effect (at the point of the arrow) come from the Cause (from the tail). I need pants like Joe’s I need a car I become a millionaire I want to be different My roommate has a car I buy stock There are problems with each one. © Washington State University-2010 68

CLR – Cause Insufficiency Reservation: You Need to do your Project well. I get CLR – Cause Insufficiency Reservation: You Need to do your Project well. I get excellent grades in Class I turn-in good homework Insufficiency Reservation: Your Group needs to complete a good Group Project too. My Project goes well My Group Project goes well © Washington State University-2010 69

CLR – (More on Insufficiency) Is it sufficient? Not without the Triangle! © Washington CLR – (More on Insufficiency) Is it sufficient? Not without the Triangle! © Washington State University-2010 70

CLR – Additional Cause Reservation: I don’t get good Gas Mileage Additional Cause Reservation: CLR – Additional Cause Reservation: I don’t get good Gas Mileage Additional Cause Reservation: I drive too fast My Truck is large I carry heavy loads Ah-Ha! We see an area were improvement is possible. © Washington State University-2010 71

CLR – Cause Reversal My Garage is full of stuff. My Garage is too CLR – Cause Reversal My Garage is full of stuff. My Garage is too small. The Garage didn’t create all the extra things. My Garage is full of stuff © Washington State University-2010 I can’t get my car in the Garage. 72

CLR – Predicted Effect We don’t have enough money to pay our bills Our CLR – Predicted Effect We don’t have enough money to pay our bills Our Income is too low Others with the same income would not be able to pay their bills We have too many bills The Most Difficult CLR to use (you have to think). Predicted Effect Reservation: If our income is too low, I would expect to see most people with the same income unable to pay their bills. And yet, I see lots of people with the same or less income paying their bills just fine. Many others with same or less income do pay their bills © Washington State University-2010 We buy too many things we really don’t need Discovery Happens! 73

CLR-Tautology Reservation A Too Tight a Logical Loop Too Tight a Logic Loop 10. CLR-Tautology Reservation A Too Tight a Logical Loop Too Tight a Logic Loop 10. There is a Chicken A Longer Logical Loop Resolves the Age Old Question 20. There is an Egg 14. There is a Male Chicken 16. There is a Female Chicken OR Most Frequent Logical Error! 11. A Male and Female Chicken can produce a fertile Egg 20. There is a fertile Egg But, ©maybe State University-2010 two eggs first! there were Washington 74

CLR – Tautology The Cause is the Excuse The Beavers lost the game The CLR – Tautology The Cause is the Excuse The Beavers lost the game The Effect The Beavers are a lousy team. The Cause Most Frequent Logical Error! • The Circular Logic of the Cause is accepted because of the Effect. • “How do you know the Beavers are a lousy Team? ” • “Because, they lost the game didn’t they!” • Whenever you hear, a BECAUSE, that is the same as the Effect you have a Tautology (bad logic). © Washington State University-2010 75

CLR – Tautology “The Cause is Hard to Define” Most Frequent Logical Error! • CLR – Tautology “The Cause is Hard to Define” Most Frequent Logical Error! • The Circular Logic of the Tautology comes from a Cause which is abstract; difficult to determine, define or quantify. The Beavers are • So, too often the Cause is not a lousy team. challenged. • And, it seems the undefined Cause is accepted because of the Effect. • To resolve the Tautology, the Cause needs to be something that can be determined and challenged; Not an Abstract Concept. • In this case, the abstract word is “lousy”. What does that mean? We need another substantial meaning. • When the BECAUSE is ABSTRACT, we need to dig further. 76 The Beavers lost the game © Washington State University-2010

CLR – Tautology: Searching Most Frequent For An Alternate Connection Logical Error! The Beavers CLR – Tautology: Searching Most Frequent For An Alternate Connection Logical Error! The Beavers are depressed by their mistakes The Beavers lost the game The Beavers face an easy team The Beavers may are a lousyso bad. not be team. The Beavers play a lousy game The Beavers don’t execute well The Beavers are perceived as a lousy team. The Beavers don’t prepare well for games © Washington State University-2010 People feel bad when they make dumb mistakes The Beavers are in a slump They are not thinking clearly 77

How Do Tautologies Happen? Most Frequent Logical Error! They are obstinate They still don’t How Do Tautologies Happen? Most Frequent Logical Error! They are obstinate They still don’t do it I push them harder I push them I tell them what to do Cause for Tautology is unanswered questions. They don’t Do we every stop to do it think why they are not answered? Why don’t people do what they are told? 78 Hum? © Washington State University-2010

Cause for the Tautology Most Frequent Pre-Conceived Notion Logical Error! • In General, the Cause for the Tautology Most Frequent Pre-Conceived Notion Logical Error! • In General, the most common error in “Jumping to Conclusions” is the Tautology! He won’t help us He is a jerk They are Muslims He is Black They are Poor He’s Indian Sometimes a Tautology is a single statement. She’s a Woman Men! They are Part of Management! Hum? What is the underlying reason for these crude remarks? © Washington State University-2010 79

Tautology is often a ‘Knee Jerk’ • When we hear, “BECAUSE” (same as Effect)… Tautology is often a ‘Knee Jerk’ • When we hear, “BECAUSE” (same as Effect)… • When the BECAUSE is ABSTRACT… • When the ABSTRACT is DEROGITORY … § It is probably a Tautology Logic Problem • Basic Assumptions of the Theory of Constraints: All People Think All People are Good Emotion is evidence of passionate, logical thinking! Every action is logical (within the environment and in accordance with the individual’s understanding of their ability to change the environment) © Washington State University-2010 80

Practice Correcting a Knee Jerk They are Part of Management! => Why Should they? Practice Correcting a Knee Jerk They are Part of Management! => Why Should they? I’m important I do a good job Management must be dealing with some very serious needs I’m glad it’s not me! Management is Incompetent Management Ignores me I don’t get what I need Management Doesn’t Respond I am not the system’s problem Management Doesn’t Listen Management’s Role is to oversee systemic performance © Washington State University-2010 81

An Additional TOC Insight • Systems are Inherently Simple System A System B E=MC An Additional TOC Insight • Systems are Inherently Simple System A System B E=MC 2 In free markets, economic stability is controlled by the Interest Rate. © Washington State University-2010 82

Look for a Simple Solution! I can’t do my homework The homework is too Look for a Simple Solution! I can’t do my homework The homework is too hard Did you ask anyone for clarity? No. I don’t know what the words mean I don’t understand the problems I don’t understand the book It’s too complicated Lecture doesn’t make sense I can’t see the connections There are too many concepts © Washington State University-2010 83

Thinking Processes The Goal: Improve Systems (Remove UDEs) The Measure: Number, Scope and Severity Thinking Processes The Goal: Improve Systems (Remove UDEs) The Measure: Number, Scope and Severity of Problems The Constraint: Core Conflict UDE UDE UDE “There once was an old System UDE That lived in a shoe. UDE That had so many UDEs UDE UDE It didn’t know what to do…” UDE UDE UDE © Washington State University-2010 UDE UDE 84

Thinking Processes The Analysis: The Paradigm Shift: Cause the Erroneous Assumption to Go Away Thinking Processes The Analysis: The Paradigm Shift: Cause the Erroneous Assumption to Go Away (Fix Rules, Measures) Let the System Behave Correctly! © Washington State University-2010 85

Thinking Process Results Problems Go Away. Are Replaced By Desirable Entities! Conflicts can be Thinking Process Results Problems Go Away. Are Replaced By Desirable Entities! Conflicts can be Resolved. Negative Branches should be Trimmed. Be “James Bond” -- A Few, Rightly Placed Injections can Make Dramatic Improvement! We can achieve Ambitious Targets What do we learn here to apply to Daily Lives? Communication is Greatly Improved! Buy-In Happens! © Washington State University-2010 86

Thinking Processes Lessons Learned • There are Answers -- Don’t Despair • Look for Thinking Processes Lessons Learned • There are Answers -- Don’t Despair • Look for Cause-->Effect Relationships • Think Clearly § Clarity, Causality, Insufficiency, Additional Cause, Predicted Effect, Cause Reversal • Don’t Accept Compromise (No Win-Lose or Lose-Lose) § Learn to find Breakthrough Injections § “A Cloud-A-Day keeps the Conflict Away” • Become Justifiably Self-Confident § Enter a Complex World, Find the One Spot that Needs Fixing, Fix it. § Then, Look for Washington State University-2010 © the Next Spot to Fix 87

Next Topics • TOC Thinking Processes • TOC Applications § Operations § Project Management Next Topics • TOC Thinking Processes • TOC Applications § Operations § Project Management § Replenishment • TOC Finances and Measures • Some TOC Philosophy will be blended into these additional topics. © Washington State University-2010 88