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2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 (in constant 2000 USD) Median Real Income, Sub. Saharan Africa 390 370 350 330 310 290 270 250

Growth in GDP per capita, 1996 - 2008 Emerging Countries Botswana Burkina Faso Cape Growth in GDP per capita, 1996 - 2008 Emerging Countries Botswana Burkina Faso Cape Verde Ethiopia Ghana Lesotho Mali Mauritius Mozambique Namibia Rwanda Sao Tome and Principe Seychelles South Africa Tanzania Uganda Zambia 4. 1 2. 8 4. 0 4. 1 2. 6 2. 3 2. 5 3. 7 5. 4 2. 4 3. 7 5. 0 2. 6 2. 0 3. 8 1. 8 Threshold Countries Benin Kenya 2003 -08 Liberia 2005 -08 Malawi Senegal Sierra Leone 2003 -08 1. 3 2. 4 3. 1 1. 2 1. 4 3. 7 Other Countries Burundi Central African Republic Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. Cote d'Ivoire Djibouti Eritrea Gambia, The Guinea-Bissau Niger Madagascar Somalia Swaziland Togo Zimbabwe -0. 8 -0. 5 -0. 3 -1. 1 -0. 9 -0. 4 -1. 7 1. 5 1. 7 -2. 3 0. 6 0. 9 n. a. 1. 9 0. 2 -2. 9 Oil Exporters Angola Cameroon Chad Congo, Rep. Eq. Guinea Gabon Mauritania Nigeria Sudan 7. 6 1. 7 3. 4 1. 3 23. 6 -0. 7 1. 1 2. 3 4. 7

1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Average GDP per capita (1977=100) Average Per Capita Income 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 Emerging Oil-Exporters Other SSA

Growth in Per Capita Income 1961 -1977 1978 -1995 Average GDP per capita growth Growth in Per Capita Income 1961 -1977 1978 -1995 Average GDP per capita growth 4. 00 3. 00 2. 00 1. 00 0. 00 -1. 00 -2. 00 Emerging Oil Exporters Other SSA 1996 -2008

1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Gross Capital Formation, 1995=100 Gross Capital Formation (Investment) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Emerging Other SSA

1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total Trade, 1995=100 Total Trade 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Emerging Other SSA

Productivity Growth Total Factor Productivity Growth in SSA (3 year rolling average) 3. 0 Productivity Growth Total Factor Productivity Growth in SSA (3 year rolling average) 3. 0 Productivity growth (%) 2. 0 1. 0 0. 0 -1. 0 -2. 0 -3. 0 Emerging Countries 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Other 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1997 SSA

Other SSA Oil-Exporters Emerging 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 Other SSA Oil-Exporters Emerging 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 1974 1973 1972 1971 1970 Constant USD, 1988=100 Agricultural Production 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 50

Infant Mortality 120 Infant Mortality Rate (per 1, 000 live births) 110 100 90 Infant Mortality 120 Infant Mortality Rate (per 1, 000 live births) 110 100 90 80 70 60 1985 Emerging 1990 Oil-Exporters 1995 Other SSA 2000 2005

Primary School Enrollment 85 Net Primary Enrollment (%) 80 75 70 65 60 55 Primary School Enrollment 85 Net Primary Enrollment (%) 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 1999 Emerging 2001 Not Emerging 2003 Oil-Exporters 2005 2007

Population Growth Rate 4. 00% Population Growth Rate 3. 50% 3. 00% 2. 50% Population Growth Rate 4. 00% Population Growth Rate 3. 50% 3. 00% 2. 50% 2. 00% 1. 50% 1. 00% 0. 50% 0. 00% 1962 1966 1970 Emerging 1974 1978 1982 1986 Oil-Exporters 1990 1994 1998 Other SSA 2002 2006

Poverty Rates in the Emerging African Countries Share of population with incomes less than Poverty Rates in the Emerging African Countries Share of population with incomes less than $1. 25/day Percent Below the Poverty Line 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1981 1993 2005

Changes in Commodity Prices 200 Terms of Trade (2000=100) 180 160 140 120 100 Changes in Commodity Prices 200 Terms of Trade (2000=100) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 1985 1990 Emerging 1995 Oil-Exporters 2000 Other SSA 2005

Five Fundamental Changes 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. The Rise of Democracy and Improved Five Fundamental Changes 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. The Rise of Democracy and Improved Governance Stronger Economic Policies The End of the Debt Crisis and Improved Donor Relations The Rise of New Technologies The Emergence of a New Generation

Major Changes in the Emerging Countries: Economic Policy Reform, Political Change, and Per Capita Major Changes in the Emerging Countries: Economic Policy Reform, Political Change, and Per Capita Income

African Democracies 30 Number of Democracies 25 20 15 10 5 0 1965 1970 African Democracies 30 Number of Democracies 25 20 15 10 5 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Freedom House Scores Average of Political Rights and Civil Liberties Scores 1 Freedom House Freedom House Scores Average of Political Rights and Civil Liberties Scores 1 Freedom House Scores 2 3 4 5 6 7 1989 1991 1993 countries 1995 Emerging 1997 Other SSA 2001 1999 2003 2005 2007

Freedom House and Polity IV Scores Freedom House and Polity IV Scores

Incidence of Domestic Conflict Average number of incidents per year per country group 30 Incidence of Domestic Conflict Average number of incidents per year per country group 30 26 25 21 20 20 15 12 10 9 5 5 0 Emerging 1980 -1995 1996 -2008 Non-emerging Oil exporters

African Leaders Departure From Power Source: Daniel N. Posner and Daniel J. Young, 2007, African Leaders Departure From Power Source: Daniel N. Posner and Daniel J. Young, 2007, “The Institutionalization of Political Power in Africa, ” Journal of Democracy 18 -3 (July), pp. 128.

Governance Indicators Source: World Bank Institute Rule of Law Regulatory Quality Year Emerging Non-emerging Governance Indicators Source: World Bank Institute Rule of Law Regulatory Quality Year Emerging Non-emerging 1996 -0. 47 -0. 77 -0. 49 -0. 64 2008 -0. 24 -0. 99 -0. 25 -1. 01 Government Effectiveness Political Stability Emerging Non-emerging 1996 -0. 46 -0. 71 -0. 39 -0. 40 2008 -0. 29 -1. 10 0. 01 -0. 84 Control of Corruption Voice & Accountability Emerging Non-emerging 1996 -0. 49 -0. 55 -0. 10 -0. 69 2008 -0. 15 -0. 80 0. 03 -1. 19

Emerging Oil Exporters Other SSA 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 Emerging Oil Exporters Other SSA 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 number of syndromes 2. Stronger Economic Policies Prevalence of “Anti-Growth Syndromes” 25 20 15 10 5 0

Currency Overvaluation: The Real Exchange Rate 450 400 Real Exchange Rate (2000=100) 350 300 Currency Overvaluation: The Real Exchange Rate 450 400 Real Exchange Rate (2000=100) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006 Emerging Oil-Exporters Other SSA

Average Import Tariff Rates 30. 0 26. 6 25. 0 20. 0 25. 0 Average Import Tariff Rates 30. 0 26. 6 25. 0 20. 0 25. 0 22. 2 19. 2 18. 7 17. 4 15. 8 15. 4 15. 0 11. 4 10. 0 5. 0 0. 0 Emerging 1981 -1995 Oil-Exporters 1996 -2003 Other SSA 2004 -2007

Changes in Agricultural Policies: The Nominal Rate of Assistance (Total Agriculture) 0 -0. 02 Changes in Agricultural Policies: The Nominal Rate of Assistance (Total Agriculture) 0 -0. 02 -0. 04 -0. 06 -0. 08 -0. 12 -0. 14 -0. 16 -0. 18 -0. 2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Emerging Other SSA

Costs of Starting a Business 400% 350% % of income per capita 300% 250% Costs of Starting a Business 400% 350% % of income per capita 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Emerging 2003 2009 Oil-Exporters Other SSA

3. The End of the Debt Crisis and Change in Donor Relationships 1000% External 3. The End of the Debt Crisis and Change in Donor Relationships 1000% External Debt/Exports 900% 800% 700% 600% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% 1970 1975 Emerging 1980 Oil-Exporters 1985 1990 Other SSA 1995 2000 2005

Official Financing for the Emerging African Countries 12000 in constant 2008 USD, millions 10000 Official Financing for the Emerging African Countries 12000 in constant 2008 USD, millions 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1988 Non-Concessional Loans 1998 Concessional Loans 2008 Grants

4. The rise of new Technologies: Mobile Subscriptions (per 100 people) 40 35 30 4. The rise of new Technologies: Mobile Subscriptions (per 100 people) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 Emerging Oil Exporting Other SSA 2007

Internet Subscriptions (per 100 people) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Internet Subscriptions (per 100 people) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000 Emerging Oil Exporting Other SSA 2007

5. The Emergence of a New Generation 5. The Emergence of a New Generation