Dick Bond Inflation Histories their Cosmic Probes

Dick Bond Inflation Histories & their Cosmic Probes, now & then Inflation Then k =(1+q)(a) ~r/16 0< = multi-parameter expansion in (ln. Ha ~ lnk) ~ 10 good e-folds in a (k~10 -4 Mpc-1 to ~ 1 Mpc-1 LSS) Cosmic Probes now & then CMBpol (T+E, B modes of polarization), LSS ~ 10+ parameters? Bond, Contaldi, Kofman, Vaudrevange 07 V(f) ~0 to 2 to 3/2 to ~. 4 now, on its way to 0? Inflation Now 1+w(a) goes to 2(1+q)/3 ~1 good e-fold. only ~2 params Cosmic Probes Now CFHTLS Zhiqi Huang, Bond & Kofman V(f)? 07 SN(192), WL(Apr 07), CMB, BAO, LSS, Lya Cosmic Probes Then JDEM-SN + DUNE-WL + Planck +ACT/SPT…

CMBology Probing the linear & nonlinear cosmic web roulette inflation potential T=t+iq Inflation Histories (CMBall+LSS) subdominant Secondary phenomena Anisotropies (CBI, ACT) Foregrounds (isocurvature, BSI) (t. SZ, k. SZ, reion) CBI, Planck Polarization of Non-Gaussianity the CMB, Gravity Waves (Boom, CBI, WMAP) (CBI, Boom, Planck, Spider) Dark Energy Histories (& CFHTLS-SN+WL) wide open braking approach to preheating

CBI pol to Apr’ 05 @Chile Bicep @SP Acbar to Jan’ 06, 07 f @SP QUa. D @SP Quiet 2 CBI 2 to early’ 08 (1000 HEMTs) Quiet 1 SCUBA 2 SZA (Interferometer) @Cal Spider (12000 bolometers) APEX JCMT @Hawaii (~400 bolometers) @Chile (3000 bolometers) 2312 bolometer ACT @LDB Clover @Chile EBEX@LDB @Chile Boom 03@LDB 2004 2006 2005 2008 2007 WMAP @L 2 to 2009 -2013? DASI @SP SPT LMT@Mexico 2009 LHC (1000 bolometers) @South Pole 2017 Bpol@L 2 ALMA Polarbear (300 bolometers)@Cal CAPMAP @Chile (Interferometer) @Chile Planck 08. 8 AMI GBT (84 bolometers) HEMTs @L 2

CMB/LSS Phenomenology CITA/CIf. AR there CITA/CIf. AR here • Dalal • Bond • Dore • Contaldi • Kesden • Lewis • Mac. Tavish • Sievers • Pfrommer Uof. T here • Mivelle-Deschenes (IAS) • Netterfield • Pogosyan (U of Alberta) • Crill • Myers (NRAO) • Carlberg • Holder (Mc. Gill) • Yee • Hoekstra (UVictoria) • Mc. Donald • Shirokov & Exptal/Analysis/Phenomenology Teams here & there • Majumdar • Boomerang 03 (98) • Nolta • Cosmic Background Imager 1/2 Weak lens (Virmos/RCS 1, CFHTLS, • Iliev • Acbar 07 • Kofman • WMAP (Nolta, Dore) • Pen Parameter data now: CMBall_pol • Vaudrevange • CFHTLS – Weak. Lens • Huang Prokushkin • van Waerbeke (UBC) • CFHTLS - Supernovae • RCS 2 (RCS 1; Virmos-Descart) SDSS P(k), BAO, 2 d. F P(k) RCS 2) ~100 sqdeg Benjamin etal. aph/0703570 v 1 Lya forest (SDSS) SN 1 a “gold”(192, 15 z>1) CFHTLS then: ACT (SZ), Spider, Planck, 21(1+z)cm GMRT, SKA

WMAP 3 sees 3 rd pk, B 03 sees 4 th ‘Shallow’ scan, 75 hours, fsky=3. 0%, large scale TT ‘deep’ scan, 125 hours, fsky=0. 28% 115 sq deg, ~ Planck 2 yr n n B 03+B 98 final soon

CBIpol 2. 5 yrs EE, ~ best so far, ~Qua. D TT BB TE

CBI excess 04, 2. 5 yrs cf. CBI excess Dec 07, 5 yrs Jan 08: Full ACBAR data ~ 4 X includes 2005 observations

Current high L state November 07 WMAP 3 sees 3 rd pk, B 03 sees 4 th CBI sees 4 th 5 th pk CBI excess 07

ACT@5170 m why Atacama? driest desert in the world. thus: cbi, toco, apex, asti, act, alma, quiet, clover CBI 2@5040 m

forecast Planck 2. 5 100&143 Spider 10 d 95&150 Synchrotron pol’n Dust pol’n are higher in B Foreground Template removals from multifrequency data is crucial

PRIMARY END @ 2012? CMB ~2009+ Planck 1+WMAP 8+SPT/ACT/Quiet+Bicep/Qu. AD/Quiet +Spider+Clover

INFLATION THEN

Standard Parameters of Cosmic Structure Formation Period of inflationary expansion, quantum noise metric perturbations r < 0. 6 or < 0. 28 95% CL Tensor Amplitude Spectral index of What is the average of of non-Compton Density Cosmological Density Amplitude Scalar index of primordial scalar Depth curvature Baryonic Matter Constantto Last of the interacting Dark primordial (curvature) universe (we can see)? Matter Scattering tensor perturbations Surface When did stars reionize the universe? (Gravity Wave) perturbations

The Parameters of Cosmic Structure Formation Cosmic Numerology: aph/0611198 – our Acbar paper on the basic 7+; bckv 07 WMAP 3 modified+B 03+CBIcombined+Acbar 06+LSS (SDSS+2 d. F) + DASI (incl polarization and CMB weak lensing and t. SZ) ns =. 958 +-. 015 (+-. 005 Planck 1). 93 +-. 03 @0. 05/Mpc run&tensor r=At / As < 0. 28 95% CL (+-. 03) <. 36 CMB+LSS run&tensor <. 05 ln r prior! dns /dln k =-. 038 +-. 024 (+-. 005) CMB+LSS run&tensor prior change? As = 22 +- 2 x 10 -10 1+w = 0. 02 +/- 0. 05 ‘phantom DE’ allowed? ! Wbh 2 =. 0226 +-. 0006 Wch 2 =. 114 +-. 005 WL =. 73 +. 02 -. 03 h =. 707 +-. 021 Wm =. 27 +. 03 -. 02 zreh = 11. 4 +- 2. 5

New Parameters of Cosmic Structure Formation Hubble parameter at inflation at a pivot pt =1+q, the deceleration parameter history order N Chebyshev expansion, N-1 parameters (e. g. nodal point values) Fluctuations are from stochastic kicks ~ H/2 p superposed on the downward drift at Dlnk=1. Potential trajectory from HJ (SB 90, 91):

Constraining Inflaton Acceleration Trajectories Bond, Contaldi, Kofman & Vaudrevange 07 “path integral” over probability landscape of theory and data, with modefunction expansions of the paths truncated by an imposed smoothness (Chebyshev-filter) criterion [data cannot constrain high ln k frequencies] P(trajectory|data, th) ~ P(ln. Hp, k|data, th) ~ P(data| ln. Hp, k ) P(ln. Hp, k | th) / P(data|th) Likelihood / evidence theory prior Data: Theory prior CMBall uniform in ln. Hp, k (WMAP 3, B 03, CBI, ACBAR, (equal a-prior probability hypothesis) DASI, VSA, MAXIMA) Nodal points cf. Chebyshev coefficients (linear combinations) + LSS (2 d. F, SDSS, s 8[lens]) uniform in / log in / monotonic in k The theory prior matters a lot for current data. Not quite as much for a Bpol future. We have tried many theory priors

Old view: Theory prior = delta function of THE correct one and only theory 1980 Old Inflation -inflation Chaotic inflation New Inflation Power-law inflation SUGRA inflation variable MP inflation Extended inflation Double Inflation Radical BSI inflation 1990 Natural p. NGB inflation SUSY F-term inflation 2000 SUSY P-term inflation Hybrid inflation Assisted inflation SUSY D-term inflation Brane inflation Super-natural Inflation N-flation DBI inflation Tachyon inflation Racetrack inflation K-flation Warped Brane inflation Roulette inflation Kahler moduli/axion

1980 Chaotic inflation Power-law inflation Double Inflation Radical BSI inflation variable MP inflation Extended inflation 1990 Natural p. NGB inflation 2000 Roulette inflation Kahler moduli/axion

1980 Power-law inflation 1990 Uniform acceleration 4 ~ l exp(- 2 1/2 y) , y=f/M 2 -1/2 V/MP P 2000 1 -ns= -nt= 2 / 1 - ; = r/16 r = 0. 26, ns=. 97 r = 0. 50, ns=. 950 MP-2= 8 p. G

Chaotic inflation 4 ~ l y 2 n , y=f/M 2 -1/2 V/MP P (k) = n/2 / NI(k) +n/3 , = n/y 2 , ns-1= - n+1 / NI(k) -n/6 , 1990 nt= - n/ NI(k) -n/6 , for NI = 60, n=1, r = 0. 3, ns=. 97, nt= -. 0 7, Dy ~ 0 2000 n=2, r = 0. 26, ns=. 95, nt= -. 034, Dy ~ 6 1980

1980 abffo 92 1992 Natural p. NGB inflation 4 ~L 4 sin 2 y/f V/MP red 2 -2 , ns~ -fred 2000 = 1 -ns /2 / exp[ 1 -ns NI (k)] (1+ 1 -ns / 6 -1 , -1/2 exponentially suppressed; higher r if lower NI & 1 -ns to match ns=. 96, fred ~ 5, r~0. 032 to match ns=. 97, fred ~ 5. 8, r ~0. 048 , Dy ~ 3

Old view: Theory prior = delta function of THE correct one and only theory New view: Theory prior = probability distribution on an energy landscape whose features are at best only glimpsed, huge number of potential minima, inflation the late stage flow in the low energy structure toward these minima. Critical role of collective coordinates in the low energy landscape: moduli fields, sizes and shapes of geometrical structures such as holes in a dynamical extra-dimensional (6 D) manifold approaching stabilization moving brane & antibrane separations (D 3, D 7) Theory prior ~ probability of trajectories given potential parameters of the collective coordinates X probability of the potential parameters X probability of initial conditions

Roulette: 1980 1990 which minimum for the rolling ball depends upon the throw; but which roulette wheel we play is chance too. focus on “ 4 -cycle Kahler moduli in large volume limit of IIB flux compactifications” Balasubramanian, Berglund 2004, + Conlon, Quevedo 2005, + Suruliz 2005 Real & imaginary parts are both important BKVP 06 The ‘house’ does not just play dice with 2006 the world. typical r ~ 10 -10 & Dy. 002 !! As & ns~0. 97 OK but by statistical selection! running dns /dlnk exists, but small because small observable window Roulette inflation Kahler moduli/axion

energy scale of inflation & r 4 ~ P r (1 - /3) 3/2 V/MP s V~ (1016 Gev)4 r/0. 1 (1 - /3) roulette inflation examples V~ (few x 1013 Gev)4 H/MP ~ 10 -5 (r/. 1)1/2 inflation energy scale cf. the gravitino mass (Kallosh & Linde 07) if a KKLT/large. VCY-like generation mechanism 1013 Gev (r/. 01)1/2 ~ H < m 3/2 cf. ~Tev

Planck 1 yr simulation: input LCDM (Acbar)+run+uniform tensor r (. 002 /Mpc) reconstructed cf. rin es order 5 uniform prior es order 5 log prior GW/scalar curvature: current from CMB+LSS: r < 0. 6 or < 0. 25 (. 28) 95%; good shot at 0. 02 95% CL with BB polarization (+-. 02 PL 2. 5+Spider), . 01 target BUT foregrounds/systematics? ? But r-spectrum. But low energy inflation

Planck 1 simulation: input LCDM (Acbar)+run+uniform tensor reconstructed cf. input of LCDM with scalar running & r=0. 1 Ps Pt es order 5 uniform prior es order 5 log prior ln. Ps ln. Pt (nodal 5 and 5)

SPIDER Tensor Signal • Simulation of large scale polarization signal Tensor No Tensor http: //www. astro. caltech. edu/~lgg/spider_front. htm

B-pol simulation: ~10 K detectors > 100 x Planck input LCDM (Acbar)+run+uniform tensor r (. 002 /Mpc) reconstructed cf. rin es order 5 uniform prior es order 5 log prior a very stringent test of the -trajectory methods: A+ also input trajectory is recovered

INFLATION NOW

Inflation Now 1+w(a)= sf(a/a eq; as/a eq; zs) to a x 3/2 = 3(1+q)/2 ~1 good e-fold. only ~2 eigenparams Zhiqi Huang, Bond & Kofman 07: 3 -param formula accurately fits slow-to-moderate roll & even wild rising baroque late-inflaton trajectories, as well as thawing &Now CFHTLS SN(192), WL(Apr 07), CMB, BAO, LSS, Lya Cosmic Probes freezing trajectories s= (dln. V/dy)2/4 = late-inflaton (potential gradient)2 =0. 0+-0. 25 now; weak as < 0. 3 (z >2. 3) now Cosmic Probes Then JDEM-SN s to s + DUNE-WL + Planck 1 +-0. 07 then Planck 1+JDEM SN+DUNE WL, weak (zs >3. 7) as <0. 21 then, 3 rd param zs (~d s /dlna) ill-determined now & then cannot reconstruct the quintessence potential, just the slope & hubble drag

45 low-z SN + ESSENCE SN + SNLS 1 st year SN + Riess high-z SN, 192 “gold”SN all fit with MLCS w(a)=w 0+wa(1 -a) models illustrates the near-degeneracies of the contour plot

Measuring the 3 parameters with current data • Use 3 -parameter formula over 0<z<4 & w(z>4)=wh (irrelevant parameter unless large). as <0. 3

Beyond Einstein panel: LISA+JDEM Forecast: JDEM-SN (2500 hi-z + 500 low-z) + DUNE-WL (50% sky, gals @z = 0. 1 -1. 1, 35/min 2 ) + Planck 1 yr ESA s=0. 02+0. 07 -0. 06 as<0. 21 (95%CL)

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